Poll: Which ultra-hyped trio will have the best cumulative career?

[cjraleigh]

This was a great Bleacher Tweet from yesterday’s Baseball Tonight podcast:

When all is said and done, who will have the best cumulative career?

[HOFAutoRookies]

Originally Posted by cjraleigh

This was a great Bleacher Tweet from yesterday’s Baseball Tonight podcast:

When all is said and done, who will have the best cumulative career?

Love the post! I just hope everyone can stay healthy. We are very fortunate to witness players like these, should be a fun run.

[LittleJimmies]

Machado really drags down the first trio.

[Skeely]

Originally Posted by LittleJimmies

Machado really drags down the first trio.

agreed. no hate to machado but there is a lot of guys you could put there were i would vote that group without hesitation based on the fact that i dont see any of those guys from the second group outperforming trout. Yet i think all three will be far better than machado. I presume this was delibirate by the op to make it a harder decision and better conversation starter though. I will think on it and revisit it later in the day as i take my poll choices far far too seriously especially considering we are on an online forum.

[cjraleigh]

Wow, 2:1 for the new guard at the moment.

This was straight from the podcast, not throwing Machado in the mix for kicks. He was legitimately part of that mighty triumvirate back in the day.

Just a fun hypothetical to start your morning!

Of course, any of the kids could regress without explanation (doubtful as it may be).

[jstasyk1121]

what hurts is that Trout is in AL and Harper NL and Machado both...so they had far more shots at MVPs and what not...

the younger trio are all NL and likely to stay that way for sometime...meaning that it would be harder to compile MVPs since only one can win...

I think the younger trio is going to be better as I think Soto will be something insanely special...and Acuna if he wins 1mvp would surpass Harper in the long run with health...then i think Tatis has a better shot at putting up special stats than machado has to this point...

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

I can’t stand Machado, and can’t vote for anything that involves him. Also, group 2 already has more WS titles than group 1, and I think that gap only widens over the years.

[21Pittsburgh58]

I hate (yes, hate) that Trout is lumped with Harper and Machado

[JRX]

Machado is 28 and has just under 36 WAR, what sport do you people follow?

[Skeely]

Originally Posted by JRX

Machado is 28 and has just under 36 WAR, what sport do you people follow?

and trouts 29 with a war of over 73. machados numbers are also padded by over 21 of that war coming in 3 seasons. none of which were in the last five years.

[LittleJimmies]

Originally Posted by Skeely

and trouts 29 with a war of over 73. machados numbers are also padded by over 21 of that war coming in 3 seasons. none of which were in the last five years.

Yep, it's not about how good Machado is when he's good, it's that he has 4 sub-0.800 OPS seasons. Even ignoring the fact that he's an arrogant, dirty player, that inconsistency puts him in a distant 6th among that group.

[JRX]

Originally Posted by LittleJimmies

Yep, it's not about how good Machado is when he's good, it's that he has 4 sub-0.800 OPS seasons. Even ignoring the fact that he's an arrogant, dirty player, that inconsistency puts him in a distant 6th among that group.

They aren't asking which group of 3 you collectively like better. Granted Machado is hated throughout baseball, but we all know next to nothing about any of these 6 players. And comparing anyone's WAR total to Trout is absurd, he's a lock for the hof today, Harper and Machado are both on track. Soto/Tatis/Acuna have a long way to go, just look towards say Kris Bryant to see what can happen or even Harper himself who has never repeated his mvp season.

[kabrune2]

WTF?!?! 2:1 for the new guard vs Trout/Harper/Machado who already combine for 148.1 WAR through their age 27 (Harper/Machado) and age 28 (Trout) seasons. To put this in perspective Tatis/Acuna/Soto will need to produce 5.7 WAR each for the next 7-8 years just to keep pace. That’s a long time to put up those numbers year over year over year.

I’ll take the Trout group. Also, if you have any mint Machado Autos I’ll take them off your hands cheap, he’s a lot better than anyone gives him credit for.

[jduds]

Trout gives the first group a big edge to me. That plus I really wouldn't be shocked to see one of Acuna or Tatis struggle with injuries or have only above average careers instead of superstar careers made me choose the first group.

[JRX]

What would the pumpers do if the poll was Tatis/Acuana/Soto vs say Wander/Dominguez/Witt

[LittleJimmies]

Originally Posted by JRX

They aren't asking which group of 3 you collectively like better. Granted Machado is hated throughout baseball, but we all know next to nothing about any of these 6 players. And comparing anyone's WAR total to Trout is absurd, he's a lock for the hof today, Harper and Machado are both on track. Soto/Tatis/Acuna have a long way to go, just look towards say Kris Bryant to see what can happen or even Harper himself who has never repeated his mvp season.

Which is why I explicitly said his performance alone is not on par with the rest of the group.

[JRX]

Except objectively it is, that's the point of War to make it objective. Yes his offense isn't as good, but you're ignoring his defense.

[kess]

The second group already has a WS winner, so that's where my vote went.

[cjraleigh]

Okay, here’s a fun (telling?) breakdown:

CAREER THROUGH 2020 SEASON

Trout: 74.8 WAR, 1,252 Games
Harper: 33.7 WAR, 1,142 Games
Machado: 39.8 WAR, 1,142 Games (ironically enough)

Total: 148.3 WAR over 3,536 games
0.0419 WAR/game

Tatis: 7.0 WAR, 143 Games
Acuna: 12.1 WAR, 313 Games
Soto: 9.7 WAR, 313 Games (ironically enough)

Total: 28.8 WAR over 769 games
0.0374 WAR/game

Group 1 leads by 12%

———————

THROUGH AGE 21 SEASON ONLY

Trout: 19.9 WAR, 336 Games
Harper: 9.9 WAR, 357 Games
Machado: 9.7 WAR, 289 Games

Total: 39.5 WAR over 982 games
0.0402 WAR/game

Tatis: 7.0 WAR, 143 Games
Acuna: 9.9 WAR, 267 Games
Soto: 9.7 WAR, 313 Games

Total: 26.6 WAR over 723 games
0.0368 WAR/game

Group 1 leads by 9.2%

So while the first comparison accounts for injuries/slumps/regressions over a long period of time for Group 1, they still produced at a 12% higher clip than Group 2.

The second comparison is truly apple to apples (when their hype was/is at a max). Group 1 still produced at a higher rate.

I guess my point is that while group 2’s potential is sky high, they have just not fully realized it yet. Will be fun to look back in 3/5/10 years, though.

I’ll also take the proven vets, given the choice.

[Robles Fan]

Tatis-Acuna-Soto reminds me a lot like the trio of Jeter-Arod-Nomar who used to get talked about a lot back around the mid-90s.

[patchgenie]

tatis and acuna are going to be the next big stars. should be able to win a WS too.

[LittleJimmies]

Originally Posted by JRX

Except objectively it is, that's the point of War to make it objective. Yes his offense isn't as good, but you're ignoring his defense.

Not ignoring defense, but I do greatly discount it as a very inexact science. I think it was Kevin Keirmaier (it was someone of that defensive ilk) who said in an interview they put very little weight in defensive WAR because of how much it can change for a player year to year without the player effectively being any better or worse at defense. Mookie had a 2.7 DWAR in 2016 and a 1.2 DWAR in 2019, both playing Gold Glove RF for Boston.

[ToppsNowFan]

Y'all sleeping on Gleyber.

He will finish better than at least 1 of those 3 in the end...

[Raleigh504]

You have to also look at rings already and I may be mistaken but Soto is the only one that has one...

[JRX]

Originally Posted by Raleigh504

You have to also look at rings already and I may be mistaken but Soto is the only one that has one...

Yeah and he won it all by himself.