The Price Index Carnage Is Real

[rwperu34]

Before I get on to the meat of it, I want to remind everybody that The Price Index is not as precise as the S&P 500 or Dow Jones...etc. I round everything at every step of the way, so while I believe this is the most accurate gauge of the market at any given time (in this case, July 12), it is still riddled with rounding errors. Also keep in mind that I don't put as much effort into the mid season updates as I do the end of season update. Now, on to the numbers;

The headline number is down 25% since November. This is going to be the first Nov. to Nov. loss since I started tracking in 2017. It is most likely the first one since I bought my first card in 2013 or 2014 or whenever it was. There is no longer any question that the bull run is over.

The average player (how I judge the guys I picked) is down 20%. That means the guys at the top have lost more than the guys in the middle and at the bottom. This is evident as I'm looking at the list. Usually the top of the market guys perform better, so another way we're in uncharted territory.

The median player is down 33%. That is a big ol' ouchie. The top 4 in price (Soto, Acuan, Tatis, and Vlad) are all right around there. Only 11 of 67 are up by even 1%. Only 5 of those are up more than 1.5x. <brag>My year has been saved by having 3 of those 5 on my Big Stash list to start the year </brag>. Twelve players have lost over half of their value. I also happen to have a big stash of the biggest loser (Mondesi, not Gallo).

I don't track volume, but it seems pretty normal for this time of year. One thing I haven't ever seen in July though....there was a player with ZERO sales (Brennan Davis).

Prime aged players (or as I call them, graduates) have performend better than prospects or young MLB player (25 or under this year). Part of that is performance (Judge and Alonso are doing very well in a small pool of players). That said, pewe predicted that the more speculative the player the more of a beating they would take. I think that's a part of it too.

[rwperu34]

I suppose this is important too. We are now about 5% below November 2020 prices. We are off 45% from the April, 2021 peak.

[lauriontj]

What do you think is causing this down trend? Are the Covid people leaving the hobby, or do you think it has to do with the economy as a whole? My guess is maybe a little of both. Less people buying due to the economy, and less people buying in general. I’m also curious to see how the National does this year vs last year. I imagine less people, but who knows…

[Stech36]

Originally Posted by lauriontj

What do you think is causing this down trend? Are the Covid people leaving the hobby, or do you think it has to do with the economy as a whole? My guess is maybe a little of both. Less people buying due to the economy, and less people buying in general. I’m also curious to see how the National does this year vs last year. I imagine less people, but who knows…

Overproduction
Many people leaving who only were in it for the money
Economy.

Lots of factors, but those are the big 3

[KhalDrogo]

The bloodbath will escalate after the National.

[alphaomegas]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

The bloodbath will escalate after the National.

Agree dealers going to realize cards isn’t moving and better sell ASAP before it gets lower. Never catch a falling knife and in this market you crazy if you buying any card at current prices. It will all be back to precocious prices. Why? People lived paycheck to paycheck before covid and after well they much much poor but the rich are richer then ever. Money flows to the top as rich saves poor spends Econ 101

[solt0131]

Originally Posted by Stech36

Overproduction
Many people leaving who only were in it for the money
Economy.

Lots of factors, but those are the big 3

I would agree here as well. The many people leaving who were in for the money is the key factor in the supply/demand issue now.

[Mister2Bits]

Originally Posted by lauriontj

What do you think is causing this down trend? Are the Covid people leaving the hobby, or do you think it has to do with the economy as a whole? My guess is maybe a little of both. Less people buying due to the economy, and less people buying in general. I’m also curious to see how the National does this year vs last year. I imagine less people, but who knows…

Were at the beginning stages of a global economic downturn and inflation is becoming a big issue everywhere. We have an ongoing pandemic, supply chain disruptions, crypto currency meltdowns, a major war in Europe, and a civil war starting in the US. The worst is yet to come.

Baseball cards are luxury goods (not essential to life but highly desired). In inflationary times, the purchasing power of the dollar decreases and the cost of everything else increases. To combat this, the demand for inferior goods increases since the dollar cant buy as much. The majority of spenders and casual collectors are impacted heavily. The need for food, shelter, transportation, etc remove any thoughts of casually collecting - the money just isn't there.

For folks who are fortunate enough to not be impacted by the economy, they will continue to buy. The high end market will only see decreases to the point where the rich see a value play and start scooping everything up because they simply have the resources to do so. Casual collectors will start fire selling key parts of their PC to help offset the purchasing power crunch.

I also personally believe there is a large portion of the hobby that got a little too excited with the valuations they were seeing during COVID peak pricing and, in turn, overextended themselves with high priced wax and singles (even more so in Football).

I hope nobody on here is affected too much. It will be interesting to watch or sure.

[PumpnDumpling]

Originally Posted by Mister2Bits

Were at the beginning stages of a global economic downturn and inflation is becoming a big issue everywhere. We have an ongoing pandemic, supply chain disruptions, crypto currency meltdowns, a major war in Europe, and a civil war starting in the US. The worst is yet to come.

Baseball cards are luxury goods (not essential to life but highly desired). In inflationary times, the purchasing power of the dollar decreases and the cost of everything else increases. To combat this, the demand for inferior goods increases since the dollar cant buy as much. The majority of spenders and casual collectors are impacted heavily. The need for food, shelter, transportation, etc remove any thoughts of casually collecting - the money just isn't there.

For folks who are fortunate enough to not be impacted by the economy, they will continue to buy. The high end market will only see decreases to the point where the rich see a value play and start scooping everything up because they simply have the resources to do so. Casual collectors will start fire selling key parts of their PC to help offset the purchasing power crunch.

I also personally believe there is a large portion of the hobby that got a little too excited with the valuations they were seeing during COVID peak pricing and, in turn, overextended themselves with high priced wax and singles (even more so in Football).

I hope nobody on here is affected too much. It will be interesting to watch or sure.

Roe v wade has all the abortionists up in arms

I had a brief exchange with a beached whale while out and about the other day when i happened upon a protest and it told me, i quote " they wont let me kill my baby, im gunna kill u instead"

Its going to be open season for the "clecter" demographic

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by PumpnDumpling

Roe v wade has all the abortionists up in arms

I had a brief exchange with a beached whale while out and about the other day when i happened upon a protest and it told me, i quote " they wont let me kill my baby, im gunna kill u instead"

Its going to be open season for the "clecter" demographic

Not really sure what women having reproductive rights over their own bodies has to do with the card market…

[Mister2Bits]

Originally Posted by PumpnDumpling

Roe v wade has all the abortionists up in arms

I had a brief exchange with a beached whale while out and about the other day when i happened upon a protest and it told me, i quote " they wont let me kill my baby, im gunna kill u instead"

Its going to be open season for the "clecter" demographic

What are you talking about? I didnt mention Roe anywhere. Sounds like you were waiting to bring it up and decided to do so.

[PumpnDumpling]

Originally Posted by Mister2Bits

What are you talking about? I didnt mention Roe anywhere. Sounds like you were waiting to bring it up and decided to do so.

Chaz Roe, u definitely mentioned him

[NHRonin]

Originally Posted by PumpnDumpling

Roe v wade has all the abortionists up in arms

I had a brief exchange with a beached whale while out and about the other day when i happened upon a protest and it told me, i quote " they wont let me kill my baby, im gunna kill u instead"

Its going to be open season for the "clecter" demographic

Calling it a civil war is facetious, especially when one side is unarmed. LOL.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by Mister2Bits

Were at the beginning stages of a global economic downturn and inflation is becoming a big issue everywhere. We have an ongoing pandemic, supply chain disruptions, crypto currency meltdowns, a major war in Europe, and a civil war starting in the US. The worst is yet to come.

Baseball cards are luxury goods (not essential to life but highly desired). In inflationary times, the purchasing power of the dollar decreases and the cost of everything else increases. To combat this, the demand for inferior goods increases since the dollar cant buy as much. The majority of spenders and casual collectors are impacted heavily. The need for food, shelter, transportation, etc remove any thoughts of casually collecting - the money just isn't there.

For folks who are fortunate enough to not be impacted by the economy, they will continue to buy. The high end market will only see decreases to the point where the rich see a value play and start scooping everything up because they simply have the resources to do so. Casual collectors will start fire selling key parts of their PC to help offset the purchasing power crunch.

I also personally believe there is a large portion of the hobby that got a little too excited with the valuations they were seeing during COVID peak pricing and, in turn, overextended themselves with high priced wax and singles (even more so in Football).

I hope nobody on here is affected too much. It will be interesting to watch or sure.

I think a lot of casual collectors sold during the pandemic bubble. The supply was absorbed by investors and speculators. Prices of cards are too high now to be casually collected.

I think dealers, speculators and investors will be pressured more and more as time goes on to sell at a loss. Dealers will resist selling at a loss until they absolutely have to -- to pay bills or going out of business. Speculators should have already sold by now and taken a loss. Investors will sell at a loss to fund other investment opportunities.

[Rjcollings1973]

Originally Posted by Mister2Bits

Were at the beginning stages of a global economic downturn and inflation is becoming a big issue everywhere. We have an ongoing pandemic, supply chain disruptions, crypto currency meltdowns, a major war in Europe, and a civil war starting in the US. The worst is yet to come.

Baseball cards are luxury goods (not essential to life but highly desired). In inflationary times, the purchasing power of the dollar decreases and the cost of everything else increases. To combat this, the demand for inferior goods increases since the dollar cant buy as much. The majority of spenders and casual collectors are impacted heavily. The need for food, shelter, transportation, etc remove any thoughts of casually collecting - the money just isn't there.

For folks who are fortunate enough to not be impacted by the economy, they will continue to buy. The high end market will only see decreases to the point where the rich see a value play and start scooping everything up because they simply have the resources to do so. Casual collectors will start fire selling key parts of their PC to help offset the purchasing power crunch.

I also personally believe there is a large portion of the hobby that got a little too excited with the valuations they were seeing during COVID peak pricing and, in turn, overextended themselves with high priced wax and singles (even more so in Football).

I hope nobody on here is affected too much. It will be interesting to watch or sure.

How do you reconcile wax sales at most likey an all time hogh in price and volume?

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by Rjcollings1973

How do you reconcile wax sales at most likey an all time hogh in price and volume?

Degens gotta degen.

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by lauriontj

What do you think is causing this down trend? Are the Covid people leaving the hobby, or do you think it has to do with the economy as a whole? My guess is maybe a little of both. Less people buying due to the economy, and less people buying in general. I’m also curious to see how the National does this year vs last year. I imagine less people, but who knows…

1) The massive liquidity injection over the last couple of years - both at the personal level and with free money for businesses - has pretty much dried up. A lot of that money went to people that didn't need it to live, and they spent it on stuff like cards.

2) The pretty much fully reopened economy this year has drawn the attraction of a lot of the flipper/cryptobro types, and, importantly, their followers, so there's less profit/rent seeking people in the hobby versus the last 18 months.

3) Inflation has put lifestyle pressure on pretty much everyone, especially in concert with #1.

I kind of expected things to stall more than to drop quite this much, but it does feel like there's still plenty of activity in the hobby as a whole - just not quite as much liquidity right now. I'm still a buyer at these price levels but I'm also a degenerate collector so what do I know?

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by lauriontj

What do you think is causing this down trend? Are the Covid people leaving the hobby, or do you think it has to do with the economy as a whole? My guess is maybe a little of both. Less people buying due to the economy, and less people buying in general. I’m also curious to see how the National does this year vs last year. I imagine less people, but who knows…

A lot of people hit on the factors. I can categorize it as one thing; real incomes are falling.

If someone out there has the data, I'd like to see where we are relative to Q4 or even Q3, 2019. IE where are we relative to before the pandemic. We know nominal everything is up, but I have no clue of real incomes.

[JoshMN]

Is there a link to this “Price Index”?

[Hail2TheVictors]

Originally Posted by JoshMN

Is there a link to this “Price Index”?

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I’ve not seen 1 actual detail about this “price index”. I’ve seen Peru mention it likely 100 times, but no details, specifics, etc.

[SaltyCracker]

Originally Posted by Hail2TheVictors

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I’ve not seen 1 actual detail about this “price index”. I’ve seen Peru mention it likely 100 times, but no details, specifics, etc.

It’s hidden in his “secret sauce”.

[rwperu34]

Lots of replies coming from my way. Bear with me;

Originally Posted by JoshMN

Is there a link to this “Price Index”?

Originally Posted by Hail2TheVictors

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I’ve not seen 1 actual detail about this “price index”. I’ve seen Peru mention it likely 100 times, but no details, specifics, etc.

I put a lot of work into the Index, mostly to direct my buying and selling. As such, the details are very valuable to me so I only release snippets.

[StateEx]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Before I get on to the meat of it, I want to remind everybody that The Price Index is not as precise as the S&P 500 or Dow Jones...etc. I round everything at every step of the way, so while I believe this is the most accurate gauge of the market at any given time (in this case, July 12), it is still riddled with rounding errors. Also keep in mind that I don't put as much effort into the mid season updates as I do the end of season update. Now, on to the numbers;

The headline number is down 25% since November. This is going to be the first Nov. to Nov. loss since I started tracking in 2017. It is most likely the first one since I bought my first card in 2013 or 2014 or whenever it was. There is no longer any question that the bull run is over.
[....]

Thanks for sharing -- I've enjoyed reading your reporting since finding the forums.

As to the market, I think it's also worth adding that, on top of factors like overproduction and the economy, a lot of "top" players have had good but not great/iconic starts to the season or been hurt.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by StateEx

Thanks for sharing -- I've enjoyed reading your reporting since finding the forums.

As to the market, I think it's also worth adding that, on top of factors like overproduction and the economy, a lot of "top" players have had good but not great/iconic starts to the season or been hurt.

This can't be underestimated. It's why the average player is down less than the market as a whole. All of the big guns are having down years. Some little one's too;

Originally Posted by cnewby

Friggin' Joey Gallo!

[BigSlim16]

Would you mind sharing the price changes by individual player? I think that would be really interesting to see