Corbin Carroll

JWBlue · 07-11-2022, 11:02 PM

Surprised one of the top prospects in baseball doesn't have a thread.

Monster minor league statistics. Just promoted to AAA. Should be up in September.

Seems like the comp is Buxton. Durability might be an issue. Already has had a shoulder injury which required surgery.

PejaD · 07-11-2022, 11:32 PM

He plays for a smaller market team and is of slight build with his speed as his only superstar-like tool. Also he has not played a full season since high school; I think he had a season ending injury last year stemming from a home run celebration. However, he has been performing well this year and already in AAA as a 21 year-old.

LittleJimmies · 07-11-2022, 11:35 PM

Don't think Buxton is a very good comp here. Carroll is a great athlete in his own right, but nowhere near what Buxton is, mostly because of a big size difference. While Carroll is showing great and surprising HR numbers, he's not likely to ever be a power hitter per se. I expect to see a very big dropoff in HR when he gets to the bigs, which still leaves him as being a potentially awesome player. Best comp I've come up with is Craig Biggio.

Badgers0821 · 07-11-2022, 11:59 PM

I’m pretty sure he will hit over .220 in the majors, so Buxton is not a great comp.

rwperu34 · 07-12-2022, 01:53 AM

Will be interesting to compare his numbers to Alek Thomas at the end of the year. On the spreadsheet Thomas is a year older, but that is really only four months. By the end of the year they will have played roughly the same amount of time at each of AA and AAA with Thomas having been eight months younger when he played there last year.

Thomas in 2021: .313/.394/.559, 20% K, 10.5% BB, 495 PA (166 in AAA)
Carroll in 2022: .315/.431/.656, 24.5% K, 14.8% BB, 299 PA (5 in AAA, 8 in Rookie)

Will be interesting for sure to see if Carroll can keep it up. That isn't much of a slump away from being even.

Keep in mind Thomas is the better defender and has more room for growth on his frame.

asovermann · 07-12-2022, 09:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PejaD

He plays for a smaller market team and is of slight build with his speed as his only superstar-like tool. Also he has not played a full season since high school; I think he had a season ending injury last year stemming from a home run celebration. However, he has been performing well this year and already in AAA as a 21 year-old.

It was on his backswing not a celebration. Doesn't have elite power grades, but FG has a 70 on his hit tool as well.

sickmantz · 07-12-2022, 10:30 AM

It might be misguided, but based on his profile and size, I think some scouts are hoping for Betts or McCutchen here

Badgers0821 · 07-12-2022, 12:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by asovermann

It was on his backswing not a celebration. Doesn't have elite power grades, but FG has a 70 on his hit tool as well.

Sounds like the same issue Tatis had.

Jman330 · 07-12-2022, 07:13 PM

My #1 prospect and it’s his to lose… I’ve watched every game at double and triple AAA and it’s his to lose… The kid has it all…Add that Bionic shoulder they installed that small frames can blast the ball..

Watching tonight’s game now….So far in 2 innings he has a home run and 3 rbis.. only his 2nd game and he already has 2 hrs and 5 rbis in 11 innings…I think he made the jump just fine..��

Jman330 · 07-12-2022, 07:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by badgers0821

i’m pretty sure he will hit over .220 in the majors, so buxton is not a great comp.

👍🤩truth

paul2020 · 07-12-2022, 09:38 PM

2 hr's in his first 2 AAA games. He has incredible power for his size.

Robles Fan · 07-12-2022, 09:48 PM

I wonder what the chances are of this kid landing in the Bigs towards the end of the year. Slim to none? Highly likely?

JWBlue · 07-12-2022, 10:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robles Fan

I wonder what the chances are of this kid landing in the Bigs towards the end of the year. Slim to none? Highly likely?

Close to 100%.

JWBlue · 07-12-2022, 10:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sickmantz

It might be misguided, but based on his profile and size, I think some scouts are hoping for Betts or McCutchen here

Betts is a better comp than Buxton.

rwperu34 · 07-13-2022, 12:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sickmantz

It might be misguided, but based on his profile and size, I think some scouts are hoping for Betts or McCutchen here

Having seen them both up close, I would say that Betts is much more athletic looking of the two. Carroll might actually be a little taller (Betts is definitely shorter than me), but he is just so narrowed shouldered I don't know where he's going to put any extra weight. Mookie hasn't, but I think that's by choice. He's got room to add if he wants.

Statistically the thing the drew me to Mookie Betts when he was in the minors was his contact. He whiffed a solid 10% less than Carroll. Of course Carroll's ISO is over .300 for his career, so there's that.

ETA: I do think Mookie is the dream scenario here.

rwperu34 · 07-13-2022, 12:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robles Fan

I wonder what the chances are of this kid landing in the Bigs towards the end of the year. Slim to none? Highly likely?

Strategically I think it depends on whether the D'backs want to go for the draft picks if Carroll wins awards or hold him back for Super 2. If they want to go for draft picks it makes sense to call him up this year and give him 50 PA or so. The other consideration would be whether they want him to play in the AFL.

Alek Thomas was on the same track as Carroll and they held him back....although perhaps not long enough to avoid the extra year of arbitration.

vintg · 07-13-2022, 03:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jman330

My #1 prospect and it’s his to lose… I’ve watched every game at double and triple AAA and it’s his to lose… The kid has it all…Add that Bionic shoulder they installed that small frames can blast the ball..

Watching tonight’s game now….So far in 2 innings he has a home run and 3 rbis.. only his 2nd game and he already has 2 hrs and 5 rbis in 11 innings…I think he made the jump just fine..��

this kid is a STUD. i've had my eye on him for a couple of years now.

on pace easily for 40/40 even accounting for time missed with covid.

marterburn · 07-13-2022, 09:00 AM

I know the Mookie comp is completely tied to stature, but he has more speed than Mookie (Betts topped out as 62nd best per Savant -- what is that, 75th percentile?).

Everything else is kinda a mystery -- it's less than 600 AB's total professionally!

rwperu has been fair and consistent for years about Carroll having lack of projection, but could it be that he's just a unicorn?

As for me, I think his ceiling for an average season is something like .305/25 HR, with 35 SB if allowed to run. So 80th percentile outcome still puts him in the 'occasional All-Star' category for me, and that's pretty great.

Randallk34 · 07-13-2022, 09:08 AM

My comp is Kevin Maas

awz50 · 07-13-2022, 09:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Randallk34

My comp is Kevin Maas

Such a brave prediction

dryan0158 · 07-13-2022, 03:38 PM

His 2019 Bowman Chrome Superfractor (non-auto) is up for auction on ebay:

https://www.ebay.com/itm/363906297485

jcfill · 07-13-2022, 04:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dryan0158

His 2019 Bowman Chrome Superfractor (non-auto) is up for auction on ebay:

https://www.ebay.com/itm/363906297485

Any guesses to how many times this gets relisted due to shill/non payer?

rwperu34 · 07-13-2022, 10:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by marterburn

I know the Mookie comp is completely tied to stature, but he has more speed than Mookie (Betts topped out as 62nd best per Savant -- what is that, 75th percentile?).

Everything else is kinda a mystery -- it's less than 600 AB's total professionally!

rwperu has been fair and consistent for years about Carroll having lack of projection, but could it be that he's just a unicorn?

As for me, I think his ceiling for an average season is something like .305/25 HR, with 35 SB if allowed to run. So 80th percentile outcome still puts him in the 'occasional All-Star' category for me, and that's pretty great.

Absolutely he can be a unicorn. For all the physical projections and swing mechanics we talk about, the most important skill a hitter has is the ability to predict where the ball is going to be when it's in the hitting zone and getting the barrel of the bat to that point at the right time. Corbin Carroll has that in spades.

eye4talent · 07-14-2022, 07:49 AM

There are plenty examples of smaller-statured players thriving in the majors.

Mookie is certainly a shining example of that. But beyond him…

Jose Altuve is maybe 5’5”, and it’s not like he’s extraordinarily muscular.

Ozzie Albies is small, and already has two 70 xbh seasons.

Bo Bichette and Jazz Chisholm are a little taller than Carroll, but they aren’t exactly meaty.

Jose Ramirez is thicker, which certainly makes a difference in the power department. (He’s basically built like a smaller running back.) But he’s still pretty small, and is one of the game’s biggest threats at the plate.

And then there’s the ultimate little guy: Willie Mays. I’ve seen him listed as heavy as 180, but I’ve regularly seen that he was listed at 5’10” 170. And he’s arguably the greatest player of all-time.

I’m not saying Carroll will be a superstar. But his size doesn’t necessarily condemn him. If anything, part of the greatness of the above players is that they get the most out of their bodies.

(On the flip side, Carlos Tocci was a prospect who was projected to be a decent player IF he could pack on some pounds. But he was basically a 6-foot Chet Holmgren, and just couldn’t add enough muscle to do major league things at the plate.)

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

dream34 · 07-22-2022, 11:30 PM

So we are talking about:

1. Incredible High School career
2. Small in stature
3. Underestimated in the draft because of that stature
4. Amazing Bat to Ball skills
5. Blazing quick
6. Surprising power for his size
7. Immediate Production at every level
8. Off the charts makeup/work ethic
9. Associated with the Pacific Northwest (Seattle)

(Stretching!)

Hmmm... A little blasphemous but maybe there's another comp that should be added

Think that player but sacrificing hitting prowess for on-base/power production and that may be the best comp in my mind.

No hits today, but another 2 Walks, Stolen Base & 2 Runs and another Reno win.

07-12-2022, 01:53 AM	#5
rwperu34 Member Join Date: Feb 2017 Location: Tempe, AZ Posts: 8,220	Will be interesting to compare his numbers to Alek Thomas at the end of the year. On the spreadsheet Thomas is a year older, but that is really only four months. By the end of the year they will have played roughly the same amount of time at each of AA and AAA with Thomas having been eight months younger when he played there last year. Thomas in 2021: .313/.394/.559, 20% K, 10.5% BB, 495 PA (166 in AAA) Carroll in 2022: .315/.431/.656, 24.5% K, 14.8% BB, 299 PA (5 in AAA, 8 in Rookie) Will be interesting for sure to see if Carroll can keep it up. That isn't much of a slump away from being even. Keep in mind Thomas is the better defender and has more room for growth on his frame. __________________ Me: Did I win? Gixen: Yes. You won. Now you're broke.

07-12-2022, 10:30 AM	#7
sickmantz Member Join Date: Nov 2012 Location: CA Posts: 2,465 vashthe84	It might be misguided, but based on his profile and size, I think some scouts are hoping for Betts or McCutchen here __________________ In a system built on racism, status quo sustains it.

07-12-2022, 07:13 PM	#9
Jman330 Member Join Date: May 2018 Posts: 237	My #1 prospect and it’s his to lose… I’ve watched every game at double and triple AAA and it’s his to lose… The kid has it all…Add that Bionic shoulder they installed that small frames can blast the ball.. Watching tonight’s game now….So far in 2 innings he has a home run and 3 rbis.. only his 2nd game and he already has 2 hrs and 5 rbis in 11 innings…I think he made the jump just fine..�� Last edited by Jman330; 07-12-2022 at 07:38 PM.

07-11-2022, 11:02 PM	#1
JWBlue Member Join Date: Sep 2014 Location: Phoenix, AZ Posts: 9,354	Corbin Carroll Surprised one of the top prospects in baseball doesn't have a thread. Monster minor league statistics. Just promoted to AAA. Should be up in September. Seems like the comp is Buxton. Durability might be an issue. Already has had a shoulder injury which required surgery.

07-11-2022, 11:32 PM	#2
PejaD Member Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 4,064	He plays for a smaller market team and is of slight build with his speed as his only superstar-like tool. Also he has not played a full season since high school; I think he had a season ending injury last year stemming from a home run celebration. However, he has been performing well this year and already in AAA as a 21 year-old.

07-11-2022, 11:35 PM	#3
LittleJimmies Member Join Date: Sep 2019 Location: Chicago Posts: 5,508	Don't think Buxton is a very good comp here. Carroll is a great athlete in his own right, but nowhere near what Buxton is, mostly because of a big size difference. While Carroll is showing great and surprising HR numbers, he's not likely to ever be a power hitter per se. I expect to see a very big dropoff in HR when he gets to the bigs, which still leaves him as being a potentially awesome player. Best comp I've come up with is Craig Biggio.

07-11-2022, 11:59 PM	#4
Badgers0821 Member Join Date: Jul 2013 Posts: 8,011	I’m pretty sure he will hit over .220 in the majors, so Buxton is not a great comp.

07-12-2022, 09:38 PM	#11
paul2020 Member Join Date: Dec 2019 Location: Newport Beach Posts: 84	2 hr's in his first 2 AAA games. He has incredible power for his size.

07-12-2022, 09:48 PM	#12
Robles Fan Member Join Date: Feb 2021 Location: Northern VA Posts: 718	I wonder what the chances are of this kid landing in the Bigs towards the end of the year. Slim to none? Highly likely?

07-13-2022, 09:00 AM	#18
marterburn Member Join Date: May 2018 Location: Milwaukee area Posts: 4,719 burnmax12 burnmax12	I know the Mookie comp is completely tied to stature, but he has more speed than Mookie (Betts topped out as 62nd best per Savant -- what is that, 75th percentile?). Everything else is kinda a mystery -- it's less than 600 AB's total professionally! rwperu has been fair and consistent for years about Carroll having lack of projection, but could it be that he's just a unicorn? As for me, I think his ceiling for an average season is something like .305/25 HR, with 35 SB if allowed to run. So 80th percentile outcome still puts him in the 'occasional All-Star' category for me, and that's pretty great.

07-13-2022, 09:08 AM	#19
Randallk34 Member Join Date: Feb 2021 Posts: 2,000	My comp is Kevin Maas

07-13-2022, 03:38 PM	#21
dryan0158 Member Join Date: Jun 2022 Posts: 4	His 2019 Bowman Chrome Superfractor (non-auto) is up for auction on ebay: https://www.ebay.com/itm/363906297485

07-14-2022, 07:49 AM	#24
eye4talent Member Join Date: Dec 2018 Location: Monterey, CA Posts: 7,916 eye4talent eye4talent	There are plenty examples of smaller-statured players thriving in the majors. Mookie is certainly a shining example of that. But beyond him… Jose Altuve is maybe 5’5”, and it’s not like he’s extraordinarily muscular. Ozzie Albies is small, and already has two 70 xbh seasons. Bo Bichette and Jazz Chisholm are a little taller than Carroll, but they aren’t exactly meaty. Jose Ramirez is thicker, which certainly makes a difference in the power department. (He’s basically built like a smaller running back.) But he’s still pretty small, and is one of the game’s biggest threats at the plate. And then there’s the ultimate little guy: Willie Mays. I’ve seen him listed as heavy as 180, but I’ve regularly seen that he was listed at 5’10” 170. And he’s arguably the greatest player of all-time. I’m not saying Carroll will be a superstar. But his size doesn’t necessarily condemn him. If anything, part of the greatness of the above players is that they get the most out of their bodies. (On the flip side, Carlos Tocci was a prospect who was projected to be a decent player IF he could pack on some pounds. But he was basically a 6-foot Chet Holmgren, and just couldn’t add enough muscle to do major league things at the plate.) Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

07-22-2022, 11:30 PM	#25
dream34 Member Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 2,981	So we are talking about: 1. Incredible High School career 2. Small in stature 3. Underestimated in the draft because of that stature 4. Amazing Bat to Ball skills 5. Blazing quick 6. Surprising power for his size 7. Immediate Production at every level 8. Off the charts makeup/work ethic 9. Associated with the Pacific Northwest (Seattle) (Stretching!) Hmmm... A little blasphemous but maybe there's another comp that should be added Think that player but sacrificing hitting prowess for on-base/power production and that may be the best comp in my mind. No hits today, but another 2 Walks, Stolen Base & 2 Runs and another Reno win.