Will any modern card outlast vintage prices?

[dashcol]

I know this has been discussed in many other threads, but I couldn’t find a stand alone thread on it.

My basic question is this:

Will any modern (1980-present) card hold the test of time and maintain the values that a vintage (pre 1960) card has?

My question stands from prices of modern cards, and whether they will hold that value or not.

If we look at key vintage HOF rookies we can see last sales (based on eBay) of:

1952 Topps Mickey Mantle PSA 4 - sold 8/3/25 - $70,000
1948 Leaf Jackie Robinson PSA 6 - sold 8/10/24 - $36,000
1933 Goudey Babe Ruth PSA 3 - sold 8/10/25 - $16,999
1954 Topps Hank Aaron PSA 7 - sold 7/29/25 - $15,950


If we look at modern star rookies (negating superfractors or other rare parallels):

2018 Bowman Chrome Rookie Autograph Shohei Ohtani PSA 9 - sold 7/27/25 - $19,500
2013 Bowman Chrome Aaron Judge Auto PSA 10 - sold 6/23/25 - $10,000

So are people really thinking that Judge and Ohtani are on the same level of those above?

Is it likely that these modern cards maintain the values above, in line with the super stars of the sport with limited cards, or will they inevitably fall in price in the next 50 years?

I am not holding any of these cards, and have no thoughts of buying any of these cards, I am just curious what modern investors think the end point is for these cards.

[hammertime]

I think Ohtani has a chance to hang with the all-time greats, depends on how the rest of his career goes though. The problem is he has like 10000 different "rookie cards" but classic, numbered parallels and autos should hold up if he does.

[mfw13]

Are you talking about RC's only?

Are you talking about base cards only?

Generally speaking, I think that there are/will be tons of non-RC, non-base cards that will "stand the test of time".....Heritage autos, Heritage Black Refractors, 23 TCPA Black #/10 cards/autos, and many many other popular/good-looking parallels/inserts that are #/d to less than 100 or otherwise very hard to find (2008/09 Goudey Sports Royalty autos, 2020 Archives "1955" mini autos #/20, etc.).

But regular good old-fashioned base cards.....no...nobody cares about those anymore since all base cards now have scarcer parallels.

[Asian62150]

I can absolutely see Ohtani standing the test of time.

In a world where we are quick to throw out "unicorn," he really is a 1/1.

Not just from a performance perspective, but he's also an icon on two continents (maybe the world? Not sure how baseball players are perceived in Europe or Africa).

[dashcol]

Originally Posted by hammertime

I think Ohtani has a chance to hang with the all-time greats, depends on how the rest of his career goes though. The problem is he has like 10000 different "rookie cards" but classic, numbered parallels and autos should hold up if he does.

Originally Posted by Asian62150

I can absolutely see Ohtani standing the test of time.

In a world where we are quick to throw out "unicorn," he really is a 1/1.

Not just from a performance perspective, but he's also an icon on two continents (maybe the world? Not sure how baseball players are perceived in Europe or Africa).

If Ohtani stays healthy, I can agree with you guys and him being the one to stand the test of time.

Originally Posted by mfw13

Are you talking about RC's only?

Are you talking about base cards only?

Generally speaking, I think that there are/will be tons of non-RC, non-base cards that will "stand the test of time".....Heritage autos, Heritage Black Refractors, 23 TCPA Black #/10 cards/autos, and many many other popular/good-looking parallels/inserts that are #/d to less than 100 or otherwise very hard to find (2008/09 Goudey Sports Royalty autos, 2020 Archives "1955" mini autos #/20, etc.).

But regular good old-fashioned base cards.....no...nobody cares about those anymore since all base cards now have scarcer parallels.

I don’t want to say just base cards, because most base cards are printed to the moon right now, so logic says no, they won’t. The only acception could have been the Trout Update base card. We all know how quickly that turned from a $3000 card to a $500 card.

I don’t want to think about anything limited to /50 or less, because that is not a fair comparison. Some limitation is equivalent, but too scarce and it is not a fair comparison.

Look at Pujols for example. No doubt play wise he was on par with the vintage I listed, and his 2001 BC Auto, which is iconic as the first major BC Auto, sits typically around $25,000. There are only 500 copies of that, and still cannot compete with low/mid grade Mantle and Jackie rookies.

[dashcol]

Originally Posted by mfw13

Are you talking about RC's only?

Are you talking about base cards only?

Generally speaking, I think that there are/will be tons of non-RC, non-base cards that will "stand the test of time".....Heritage autos, Heritage Black Refractors, 23 TCPA Black #/10 cards/autos, and many many other popular/good-looking parallels/inserts that are #/d to less than 100 or otherwise very hard to find (2008/09 Goudey Sports Royalty autos, 2020 Archives "1955" mini autos #/20, etc.).

But regular good old-fashioned base cards.....no...nobody cares about those anymore since all base cards now have scarcer parallels.

If we remove the limited cards, which non rookies do you see holding high value? There are more than 100 1952 Mantles out there, so it’s not right to compare that to a /100 or lower card.

[hammertime]

Originally Posted by dashcol

If we remove the limited cards, which non rookies do you see holding high value? There are more than 100 1952 Mantles out there, so it’s not right to compare that to a /100 or lower card.

But it's also just a different world. In 1952 almost no one was worrying about keeping their cards "mint" or how much they'd be worth 50 years later.

[SaveMeTheGum]

All modern cards will be vintage someday...

[dashcol]

Originally Posted by hammertime

But it's also just a different world. In 1952 almost no one was worrying Bout keeping their cards "mint" or how much they'd be worth 50 years later.

That is fair, it really is. That is why I compared low/mid grade cards. There are more than 100 low/mid grade 1952 Mantles, and it seems like that card is more available than say the 2001 BC Pujols.

As a collector would it make more sense to wait until 2050 to buy a 2013 BC Aaron Judge Auto? It wouldn’t be $10K anymore, it would be $5k.

I am really curious what the rationale is for people to pay these high prices right now.

If you are a clector, which would you rather have for $20k, a nice Ohtani that is readily available, or a 1933 Goudey Babe Ruth?

[dashcol]

Originally Posted by SaveMeTheGum

All modern cards will be vintage someday...

The definition of vintage is generally accepted as 25 years old. So, that means that 2000 cards are now vintage. Have their prices raised?

[Bosoxfan5990]

I think it's a really interesting conversation. I don't know what the right answer is.

[corockies]

Originally Posted by dashcol

The definition of vintage is generally accepted as 25 years old. So, that means that 2000 cards are now vintage. Have their prices raised?

Absolutely. This era is probably the hottest segment of the baseball card world currently. But it's tough to gauge against older vintage because the real value here is in the rare parallels / inserts of this time. Older vintage didn't have this rarity factor. Condition is really the only factor for anything vintage pre-1988.

[Mister2Bits]

I think there is an incredible amount of risk involved with modern successful players who are still alive and playing.

Mantle, Ruth, Aaron, Mays, Jackie...etc all have completed legacies. History tells us that their cards have increased substantially. Much of that price increase comes from demand but a portion of that is also the purchasing power of the dollar decreasing over time. Vintage high grade will always do very well because of American history & collectibility, super low print runs, and the ability to be inflation protected. Add to that none of the players above can have a career ending injury or be accused of improper behavior. I'm sure the guy who bought the Bowman Chrome Red Auto of Wander Franco for $193k wishes he put that money into vintage.

There aren't 1,000,000 base copies of 40 different rookie cards like we have today. The last major low printed rookie card was Trout's update RC and there weren't 20 other RC's of his spread across other products. Which is why, despite him being decrowned king of baseball, his RC is still $800 in PSA 10. We're back to 90's printing levels with the only difference being that we have 40 different products each year and nearly every single one is printed to the moon.

What's nice about vintage is a slightly left leaning population histogram - meaning there are more low grade than high grade. When we look at modern it's heavily heavily skewed to the right. There are simply too many base PSA 10 RC's in existence for the price to keep up. Adding to it, the drop off from a 10 to a 9 on a base rookie is significant.

Low numbered, high grade popular parallels from brands with pedigree (Topps Black, Topps Chrome Gold, Heritage ROA...etc) should do really well going forward in this type of environment. The more condition sensitive the better.

Take a look at semi star Precious Metal Gems from the 90's. Now look at Jordan and Kobe PMGs. A 1997 Jordan Red PMG in BGS 8.5 is a $500k card.

In a world where Ohtani plays for 10-15 years, breaks more records, stays healthy, avoids controversy and establishes himself as the GOAT (MJ, Brady, Gretzky, Tiger, Messi) his 2018 Topps Flagship blacks, camos, clears, etc will be just as valuable as a 1952 Mantle.

Just my long .02.

[dashcol]

Originally Posted by corockies

Absolutely. This era is probably the hottest segment of the baseball card world currently. But it's tough to gauge against older vintage because the real value here is in the rare parallels / inserts of this time. Older vintage didn't have this rarity factor. Condition is really the only factor for anything vintage pre-1988.

I will have to do more research.

There are the always popular 2000s inserts, PMGs, Crusades, etc. Has there been a large jump in the more common 2000s inserts? I have not seen anything else really jump other than the EXs that I sold a couple years ago that are now 5x what they were, lol.

What about 2000s RCs? I have not really seen these jump other than the ones just inducted, but even those we all knew were first ballot (Ichiro et al).

Even Joe Mayer never saw a rise when inducted and he was not seen as first ballot, but his cards never jumped, no matter how rare.

[corockies]

Originally Posted by dashcol

I will have to do more research.

There are the always popular 2000s inserts, PMGs, Crusades, etc. Has there been a large jump in the more common 2000s inserts? I have not seen anything else really jump other than the EXs that I sold a couple years ago that are now 5x what they were, lol.

What about 2000s RCs? I have not really seen these jump other than the ones just inducted, but even those we all knew were first ballot (Ichiro et al).

Even Joe Mayer never saw a rise when inducted and he was not seen as first ballot, but his cards never jumped, no matter how rare.

I have no data to back this (probably because it hasn't happened yet) but I feel like this is where legacy parallels will take over and be the go to chase cards for future Hall of Fame players. The market is so saturated with too many parallels / inserts it only makes sense that certain ones will filter to the top as the "best" cards for players nearing the end of their careers in the next 10-20 years. The parallels I see that will succeed should be:

First Bowman Chrome Autograph Blue, Gold, Orange, Red
Flagship Topps Black RC
First Bowman Chrome non-auto. Gold Refractor
Bowman Chrome Gold Refractor RC
Topps Chrome Gold Refractor RC
Topps Heritage Black Refractor RC
Topps Heritage Real One Red Auto RC

There could be others, but the above have really cemented themselves as all being legacy parallels and hopefully the go to chase for more modern cards.

I'd love to include Stadium Club Foilboard RC and Stadium Club Gold Minted on the above list, but I don't feel like they have built near the following.

Also, for Joe Mauer he still falls just outside the current norm for most legacy parallels. I'd keep an eye on his 2002 Bowman Chrome Gold Refractor auto. RC /50 and his 2002 Topps Chrome Black Refractor RC /50 as time goes on to see where people see value for his best cards.

[dashcol]

Originally Posted by Mister2Bits

I think there is an incredible amount of risk involved with modern successful players who are still alive and playing.

Mantle, Ruth, Aaron, Mays, Jackie...etc all have completed legacies. History tells us that their cards have increased substantially. Much of that price increase comes from demand but a portion of that is also the purchasing power of the dollar decreasing over time. Vintage high grade will always do very well because of American history & collectibility, super low print runs, and the ability to be inflation protected. Add to that none of the players above can have a career ending injury or be accused of improper behavior. I'm sure the guy who bought the Bowman Chrome Red Auto of Wander Franco for $193k wishes he put that money into vintage.

There aren't 1,000,000 base copies of 40 different rookie cards like we have today. The last major low printed rookie card was Trout's update RC and there weren't 20 other RC's of his spread across other products. Which is why, despite him being decrowned king of baseball, his RC is still $800 in PSA 10. We're back to 90's printing levels with the only difference being that we have 40 different products each year and nearly every single one is printed to the moon.

What's nice about vintage is a slightly left leaning population histogram - meaning there are more low grade than high grade. When we look at modern it's heavily heavily skewed to the right. There are simply too many base PSA 10 RC's in existence for the price to keep up. Adding to it, the drop off from a 10 to a 9 on a base rookie is significant.

Low numbered, high grade popular parallels from brands with pedigree (Topps Black, Topps Chrome Gold, Heritage ROA...etc) should do really well going forward in this type of environment. The more condition sensitive the better.

Take a look at semi star Precious Metal Gems from the 90's. Now look at Jordan and Kobe PMGs. A 1997 Jordan Red PMG in BGS 8.5 is a $500k card.

In a world where Ohtani plays for 10-15 years, breaks more records, stays healthy, avoids controversy and establishes himself as the GOAT (MJ, Brady, Gretzky, Tiger, Messi) his 2018 Topps Flagship blacks, camos, clears, etc will be just as valuable as a 1952 Mantle.

Just my long .02.

This is a good write up, I enjoyed reading it, thank you.

I don’t want to compare basketball to baseball though, BK fans are insane sometimes and are normally the ones to pay insane price (look at Caitlyn Clark RC). BB almost seams SLIGHTLY more cautious.

The grading skew is a good point. However, there was a time where Randy Arozarena PSA 10 base cards were near $100, but now are nothing.

There is something to say about career ending injuries in vintage not being a concern, but how many of these players are really on the same level as Ruth/Mantle/Robinson? Ohtani is a rarity. But what about the people paying crazy prices for Nick Kurtz? Where is his ceiling honestly? David Parker? That means his cards should be equivalent to a 1974 PSA 8 (which is NM), those sell for $300. So, that should be a Nick Kurtz ceiling, not the $1600 that a PSA 10 BCA Nick Kurtz did on 7/26/25.

What is that person really thinking they would gain from spending $1600 today on that card?

[dashcol]

Originally Posted by corockies

I have no data to back this (probably because it hasn't happened yet) but I feel like this is where legacy parallels will take over and be the go to chase cards for future Hall of Fame players. The market is so saturated with too many parallels / inserts it only makes sense that certain ones will filter to the top as the "best" cards for players nearing the end of their careers in the next 10-20 years. The parallels I see that will succeed should be:

First Bowman Chrome Autograph Blue, Gold, Orange, Red
Flagship Topps Black RC
First Bowman Chrome non-auto. Gold Refractor
Bowman Chrome Gold Refractor RC
Topps Chrome Gold Refractor RC
Topps Heritage Black Refractor RC
Topps Heritage Real One Red Auto RC

There could be others, but the above have really cemented themselves as all being legacy parallels and hopefully the go to chase for more modern cards.

I'd love to include Stadium Club Foilboard RC and Stadium Club Gold Minted on the above list, but I don't feel like they have built near the following.

Also, for Joe Mauer he still falls just outside the current norm for most legacy parallels. I'd keep an eye on his 2002 Bowman Chrome Gold Refractor auto. RC /50 and his 2002 Topps Chrome Black Refractor RC /50 as time goes on to see where people see value for his best cards.

I agree with all of this, but again, you are limiting it to cards /50. All the key cards in baseball vintage have more than 50 copies available, and still demand those high prices.

[ThoseBackPages]

all those vintage cards you listed are available to buy on eBay 24/7
it just a matter of paying for it, or being tied to a particular assigned grade

now, try to find some of the Topps Blacks that are "only" 22 years old now. Good luck.

[corockies]

Originally Posted by dashcol

I agree with all of this, but again, you are limiting it to cards /50. All the key cards in baseball vintage have more than 50 copies available, and still demand those high prices.

Like I said it's tough to gauge. How likely are you to go to a card show and see a copy of a Mickey Mantle '52 Topps in any condition vs. a Buster Posey 2010 Topps Black RC /59 any condition? I'd bet you see 100 different Mantles before you ever find 1 Posey, unless you're in San Francisco.

Serial # rarity will always trump older vintage simply because there's so much less of it, and half the chase is the rarity of it.

[dashcol]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

all those vintage cards you listed are available to buy on eBay 24/7
it just a matter of paying for it, or being tied to a particular assigned grade

now, try to find some of the Topps Blacks that are "only" 22 years old now. Good luck.

Again, blacks are severely limited. I understand those will always carry a premium.

I am talking about what the upside to paying the prices for current stars of cards that are not artificially limited.

[dashcol]

Originally Posted by corockies

Like I said it's tough to gauge. How likely are you to go to a card show and see a copy of a Mickey Mantle '52 Topps in any condition vs. a Buster Posey 2010 Topps Black RC /59 any condition? I'd bet you see 100 different Mantles before you ever find 1 Posey, unless you're in San Francisco.

Serial # rarity will always trump older vintage simply because there's so much less of it, and half the chase is the rarity of it.

Very true. But, in that same case if you had $70k to spend on a card, do you buy the 52 Mantle, or the black Posey?

[corockies]

Originally Posted by dashcol

Very true. But, in that same case if you had $70k to spend on a card, do you buy the 52 Mantle, or the black Posey?

Honestly 100% I'd buy the Posey. It just seems like the value is in the true rarity of it and the legacy not only Posey has built but the legacy of the card parallel as well. We're entering an interesting time in cards where very limited RCs of Hall of Fame players will start to be the norm.

Posey and Yadier Molina should be the first 2 Hall of Famers with a Topps Black RC. Posey is 2010 /59, Molina is 2004 /53. I can guarantee there will always be more than 59 high end collectors out there wanting to add one of those to their Hall of Fame collection. I'm truly looking forward to seeing how this all shakes out.

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by dashcol

Again, blacks are severely limited. I understand those will always carry a premium.

I am talking about what the upside to paying the prices for current stars of cards that are not artificially limited.

i hear a lot of folks that dont care for new cards saying this.

there is nothing "artificial" about limited parallels. people may not like them, but they are real cards.

[dashcol]

Originally Posted by corockies

Honestly 100% I'd buy the Posey. It just seems like the value is in the true rarity of it and the legacy not only Posey has built but the legacy of the card parallel as well. We're entering an interesting time in cards where very limited RCs of Hall of Fame players will start to be the norm.

Posey and Yadier Molina should be the first 2 Hall of Famers with a Topps Black RC. Posey is 2010 /59, Molina is 2004 /53. I can guarantee there will always be more than 59 high end collectors out there wanting to add one of those to their Hall of Fame collection. I'm truly looking forward to seeing how this all shakes out.

Good points. It will be interesting to see what a Posey Black does. Posey iconic in SF, black iconic in flagship, could be a recipe to set records.

I can see the appeal. This is why I ask.

[dashcol]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

i hear a lot of folks that dont care for new cards saying this.

there is nothing "artificial" about limited parallels. people may not like them, but they are real cards.

Yes, they are real. Don’t get me wrong, I do like modern cards as well as vintage, same as you. Maybe to not your level, but still enjoy both.

I say they are artificial, because what is different between the green parallel and the base? Nothing other than the color, and Topps saying there is only 99 of the green. Yes, there are traditionalist colors that will always go for more (gold, black, red, and even refractor/rainbow). Does that really mean that the card is on the same level as iconic cards just because it is a black of a mid end player?