RWPERU34's 2021 Spending and Selling Review

[rwperu34]

Here's the preseason thread.;

For purposes of this discussion, I"m considering the offseason (or buying/investing season) as July 1, 2020 to June 30, 2021. I'll consider in season (ie the selling/earning season) as February 15, 2021 to February 14, 2022. There is a ton of overlap, but what can we do? There needs to be a line drawn somewhere and it is mostly arbitrary. I realize that means that some of this update is not fully complete, but I've got a pretty good idea of how everybody is going to finish.

The big six were ranked based on a combination of how low I thought they were priced and how much money I spent. Basically a prediction of profit.

#1) Eloy Jimenez, Loss**-Injured at the end of Spring Training and I auctioned just about everything off within a week. I put the asterisk because thanks to his back to back 2 HR 5 RBI outburst I was able to get really good prices on the few cards I had left. This one is really going to come down to grading. I'm currently down $650. At PSA I've got 4 2019 refractors (3 base, 1 pink), 1 S2 Gold /2019, 2 base 2019 Chrome, and 1 base 2019 S2. If they all come back 10 I will complete the comeback. Even when they don't all come back 10, I've still got cards left to send to PSA if it ever opens for cheap stuff again. Still, I've sold everything I have (save a few 2019 Topps and Bowman Chrome) and am down, so I'll count it as a loss.

#2) Yordan Alvarez, Hold-I'm definitely down on paper but have sold very little. In fact I've been adding. If I did sell everything it would end up very similar to Eloy...do very well on his BCA and get crushed on his RC stuff. Some of that is because of the ~30% drop in raw when PSA shut down, but a good chunk is due to softening of his overall market.

#3) Rafael Devers, Win-I'm not quite all the way back yet, but will be soon. I'm holding a BCA Gem and a BCA Refractor Gem, either of which would put me over the top even at low end auction pricing. I've still got plenty of raw and plenty of stuff at PSA. This is a no doubter, and could end up fairly substantial in the long run.

#4) Kyle Tucker, Hold-I have sold very little, what I have sold is at a profit, and have been adding (cheaply relative to sales prices). I'm up on paper, pretty much offsetting the Yordan paper loss.

#5) Xander Bogaerts, Win-This was a big, no doubt about it win that is in the books.

#6) Cody Bellinger, Loss-Fortunately this was only one card and I cut my loss pretty early, so not too much impact on the overall. I passed on a couple of BCA Purple Gems when the were "only" $1800....thank goodness.

Overall I'd say on paper I'm up a little on the big 6, although not enough to quit my day job (which I did anyway!).

Honorable Mentions

HM Joey Bart, cue the sad trombone-I got hurt here by him being terrible and way overpaying for his 2021 stuff even if he were as good as I thought he was. I didn't do well on finding cards for PSA either. That said I've got a Clear /10 which has a recent sale for $850 and a Black /70 that's headed to PSA to hopefully be a 9. I've still got a path to win here, but it's narrow. The expectation is violent beat down. I'll book it as a loss even though I haven't sold a single card yet.

HM Gavin Lux, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯-He had that little outburst opening week and I got a bunch sold at high prices. Everything I have left is way down though. Everything I have for PSA is worthless right now.

HM Heliot Ramos, Win-I've downgraded him by a level but his prices held up after that Spring Training outburst. I sold late and still got top dollar. This one is in the book and I've still got a little bit left.

Geraldo Perdomo, Win-This is a $20 profit plus a BGS 9 Green /99 BCA. I'll take it.

Late Add, Jo Adell, TBD-I started buying in that awkward month where MLB was playing and MiLB wasn't. I predicted his prices would fall and they did. I predicted they'd go back up when he started playing. They didn't...at first...but have since. What I've sold has been up. I also did very well hitting cards to send to PSA, including 2 Topps Heritage Black Refractors!

Overall I'd say it's a similar story to the Big 6. The Heliot win was big enough to offset the Bart loss. Up a little on paper, don't quit day job.

Holdovers From the Past

1) Joey Gallo-When the most important guy in your collection gets traded to the Yankees you had a good year....even though he's been a disaster since the trade. Overall my collection is up (on paper) based on this alone. The reality is though I'm going to need to become a net seller of Gallo over the next 12 months. I've got too many dollars tied up here now thanks to the 50% boost in price due to the trade and adding some monster cards.

2) Carlos Correa-I was always waiting for his address to change. I'm crossing my fingers he doesn't end up in Detroit. Any of the other likely destinations will be ok. Another move to the Yankees would be sweet

3) Adalberto Mondesi-Injured all year, productive when healthy. I'm looking for a 25 HR 50 SB season...if he can ever stay healthy. Even a Byron Buxtonesque start (prorated down to Mondesi's talent level, of course) and I'll be in great shape. Heck. Just being healthy for spring training will boost his prices quite a bit.

[rroboo]

A huge standout player to me was Francisco Alvarez in 2020 preseason but I did not pull the trigger simply because I avoid catchers. I pretty much have everyone in this list invested in or in the past except Mondesi, Perdomo, and Bart.