Print Runs on 1996 Topps Chrome Refractors

[dev6015]

I've been looking for any data I can find on these and haven't seen anything. While this falls pretty low on the scale of Hobby Importance, its January, we're in a baseball work stoppage, and this is something I've been super interested in as a child of the 90's who grew up idolizing this set. I'm publicizing my research to the crack team here at Blowout to see if 1) anyone else cares (lol) and 2) you all can build on my analysis any more.

I used two data points to try to crack the case:

1. 1996 Topps Chrome Refractor Population Report

To forecast the total number of 1996 Topps Chrome Refractors, I made some guesses based on graded pop report numbers of the #80 Derek Jeter refractor. PSA 8's are selling for $3K and PSA 9's are selling for $4,500, so its hard to believe there are too many left out there not graded. Using that assumption (and it is definitely an assumption), here is the total graded population at the three major grading companies for the biggest card in the set.

Derek Jeter (#80) Total Pop
PSA: 83
BGS: 27
SGC: 6
Total: 116

Obviously some of these have been cracked and re-subbed over the years, but 116 seems like a reasonable starting point. Further supporting the notion that the majority of these cards are graded, I looked at recent eBay listings and sales...

eBay stats (last three months)
Raw: 0 listed or sold
Graded (any TPG): 5 listed, 4 sold

2. Pop Reports of Premium 90's Serial Numbered Parallel Sets

One way we can guess the print run of an unnumbered parallel set is to benchmark it against the pop reports of similar sets that happen to be serial numbered or have stated print runs. Two of these that immediately spring to mind are 1993 Finest Refractors (not serial numbered, but announced print run) and 1996 Select Certified (many options, but I use Mirror Red #/90 as their current graded pop is closest to current pop reports of 1996 Topps Chrome Refractors). Print runs come from Baseball Card Pedia.

1993 Topps Finest Ken Griffey Jr (#110) pop report (print run = 241)
PSA: 217
BGS: 61
SGC: 8
Total: 286 (118% of print run graded) - clearly lots of cracks and re-subs...or the print run is wrong.

1996 Select Certified Mirror Red Derek Jeter (#100) pop report (print run = 90)
PSA: 59
BGS: 17
SGC: 1
Total: 77 (85.6% of print run graded)

Conclusion:
Using these two metrics, it appears that the majority of the copies of the premier players in the 1996 Topps Chrome Refractor set have already been graded. I don't think 1996 TC Refractors are as desirable as 1993 Finest Refractors, but perhaps on par with Select Certified Mirror Reds (although I was an 8 year old collector in 1996, so if someone wants to convince me that Mirror Reds are/were way more desirable than Topps Chrome Refractors, we can talk).

Because of this, I'm comfortable assuming the same graded proportion of total print run for 1996 Topps Chrome Refractors as we see for 1996 Select Certified Mirror Red (85.6%). Using the Jeter TC Refractor total graded pop of 116, that would imply a print run of approximately 135 of each card in the 1996 Topps Chrome Refractor set.

Where did I mess up. What did I do wrong?

Disclaimer: I own a raw Griffey refractor (#70) and a PSA 9 Chipper Jones (#53) refractor. I am trying to collect more in the set, although this post will probably not help me in that quest

Also, here's some eye candy for anyone who has made it this far.

[Quake]

I'd be happy to post my math this evening, but this is my quick estimate based upon data I can find and some quick calculations. I'll try to find more this afternoon.

Base set refractors are just over 2% of the ENTIRE print run, so if Topps made 100,000 total cards (base set, base refractors, plus the two insert sets and their refractor versions), then ~2100 refractors would be made, or roughly 12.6 per player.

Scale the number up as you want, but with no numbered cards it's tough to get close to the real number. A one million card total run (seems realistic enough) gets you about 125 refractors of each base card.

[dev6015]

Originally Posted by Quake

I'd be happy to post my math this evening, but this is my quick estimate based upon data I can find and some quick calculations. I'll try to find more this afternoon.

Base set refractors are just over 2% of the ENTIRE print run, so if Topps made 100,000 total cards (base set, base refractors, plus the two insert sets and their refractor versions), then ~2100 refractors would be made, or roughly 12.6 per player.

Scale the number up as you want, but with no numbered cards it's tough to get close to the real number. A one million card total run (seems realistic enough) gets you about 125 refractors of each base card.

Yeah the whole exercise is essentially an educated guess, since you have to make some pretty large assumptions (total print run in your method, relative popularity reflected in grading trends in my case). Either way, its a somewhat-informed shot in the dark.

For anyone that was collecting and ripping these packs back then: was there a lot of demand for these refractors at the time? I have heard about the mania for 93 Finest, but not sure if 96 TC was as crazy.

[msink28]

My guess would be a print run of around 300-500. Topps Chrome was not known to be especially scarce at the time, and the refractors weren't especially desirable relative to other parallels at the time. By contrast, Select Certified was very expensive right out of the gate and everybody knew to chase the Mirrors, so it makes sense that those were well-protected and graded immediately.

A print run of 300 would imply around 25,000 boxes; 82.5 boxes to make a refractor set * 300 print run ~ 25,000 boxes. That would imply that every Target and Wal-Mart and TRU and KayBee got a handful of boxes, plus maybe some found their way into card shops.

If you compare to 1996 Topps Chrome basketball, there are 415 graded Kobe Bryant refractors at PSA. Now, some are obvious regrade attempts but still, seems unlikely that the print run of baseball vs. football vs. basketball would be that different for the same year.

That doesn't mean the cards aren't hard to find though, the retail-only distribution means that many of these are long lost to shoddy distribution, kids, what have you. There may only be 150 or so Jeters that are practically going to circulate, but I think the print run is higher.

[ThoseBackPages]

and how many have not hulked yet?

[rats60]

Originally Posted by dev6015

Yeah the whole exercise is essentially an educated guess, since you have to make some pretty large assumptions (total print run in your method, relative popularity reflected in grading trends in my case). Either way, its a somewhat-informed shot in the dark.

For anyone that was collecting and ripping these packs back then: was there a lot of demand for these refractors at the time? I have heard about the mania for 93 Finest, but not sure if 96 TC was as crazy.

There are more than 241 of each finest refractor. That number was speculation, but at least one hoarder exceeded that number of a player.

1993 Finest was released at the height of the junk wax era. After the baseball strike in 1994, there were a lot of people who left the modern baseball market. 1996 Topps Chrome was released at a time when modern baseball cards were soft. It was an experimental product with low production and low demand. It was not very popular when released. Your production estimates are in the ball park in my opinion.

[imbluestreak23]

Nobody collected 96 TC. It had no rookies. In 96 people were chasing 1995 Bowman's Best. In 1997 they were chasing Kerry Wood Bowman Chromes

[SearchPatrol]

I would guess the number to be 400-500. 1:12 packs is not rare. Atomics in Bowman's Best were much more rare. Great set. Have about 100 cards. But Greening,, UGH the greening.. What a great way to ruin beautiful cards.

[whyconform]

Rats60, you're mixing up 93 finest with 96 finest gold. There was a stated run of 150 Finest Gold refractors, until a Maddux collector got more, sued, and they settled.

The OP is waaayyy off here, and it's ok. You def tried, assuming things.... 95 Finest refractors were 1:12 and had a print run of 550. It seems believable based on how often they pop up compared to other inserts. That's finest, the lowest print run priduct. In 96, I'd imagine there would be more TC than Finest, and I'd guess ~300 or so Finest Gold Refractors.

That said, I would bet 1000 easy. Compared to 93 finest, which was a major HIT/chase card when it came out, the TC Refractor wasn't that special until the crossover people decided it was. Many, many I guarantee reside in toploaders and binders.

[soey10]

I think your estimates are not that far off. Probably in the 150-300 card range. I remember 1996 I was 15 years old at the time and this product was not popular. It was an experimental product building off of the bowman’s best chrome technology.
Trying to sell an experimental product at a higher than average cost through retail outlets is a recipe for disaster if you are not careful. This is why I think that the overall production run of 1996 Topps Chelme was lower than a normal product from the era. Even Select Certified was in year number 2 and had great success from baseball but better success from football. So stepping up for year 2 was calculated, plus they were a hobby only distribution.


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[rats60]

Originally Posted by whyconform

Rats60, you're mixing up 93 finest with 96 finest gold. There was a stated run of 150 Finest Gold refractors, until a Maddux collector got more, sued, and they settled.

The OP is waaayyy off here, and it's ok. You def tried, assuming things.... 95 Finest refractors were 1:12 and had a print run of 550. It seems believable based on how often they pop up compared to other inserts. That's finest, the lowest print run priduct. In 96, I'd imagine there would be more TC than Finest, and I'd guess ~300 or so Finest Gold Refractors.

That said, I would bet 1000 easy. Compared to 93 finest, which was a major HIT/chase card when it came out, the TC Refractor wasn't that special until the crossover people decided it was. Many, many I guarantee reside in toploaders and binders.

There was a lot less Topps Chrome than Finest in 1996. Finest was king, Chrome was a new product with low demand.

[ThoseBackPages]

TC was also Retail Only in 1996. So im not sure how "low printed" it really was

[gwynn545]

Originally Posted by whyconform

Rats60, you're mixing up 93 finest with 96 finest gold. There was a stated run of 150 Finest Gold refractors, until a Maddux collector got more, sued, and they settled.

The OP is waaayyy off here, and it's ok. You def tried, assuming things.... 95 Finest refractors were 1:12 and had a print run of 550. It seems believable based on how often they pop up compared to other inserts. That's finest, the lowest print run priduct. In 96, I'd imagine there would be more TC than Finest, and I'd guess ~300 or so Finest Gold Refractors.

That said, I would bet 1000 easy. Compared to 93 finest, which was a major HIT/chase card when it came out, the TC Refractor wasn't that special until the crossover people decided it was. Many, many I guarantee reside in toploaders and binders.

Yep! My three Gwynn refractors are in binders (no sleeves)!

[Doublexthebeast]

Take a different approach- most 90’s products were thought to be around 6,000-10,000 cases printed. Obviously that varies per product. Considering this was a retail only product go with the middle at 8,000 cases.

165 base cards
15 wrecking crew
20 masters of the game

200 total cards- I don’t know if the inserts had different odds but I’ll consider them even for this project

8,000 cases at 12 boxes each= 96,000 boxes
96,000 box x 24 packs= 2,304,000 packs
2,304,000 packs at a 1:12 ratio= 192,000 refractors
192,000 refractors with a 200 card checklist= 960 refractors for each player

[jduds]

I'd say that using the 85% figure from Mirror Reds is probably too big of a leap. As others stated, Mirrors have long been highly sought after and key cards for player collectors. It probably gives you a decent basement for the print run, but I'm not sure I buy it as a ceiling.

[Quake]

1996 refractors really are in the 125-175 range (up to ~1.5 million card total print run). I'd have a real hard time buying a production more than that.

For reference, the first two years Topps Chrome had numbered cards were 1999 and 2000. All numbers are from the baseballcardpedia, until I can find packs from the product showing otherwise -I already confirmed the 1996 numbers earlier today with a wrapper picture.

1999 TC Series 1 had "Early Road to the Hall Refractor" /100, a set of 10 cards with 1:944 pack odds. If all 1000 cards are evenly distributed, this guestimates 944,000 packs produced (~3.8 million cards). Base set refractors were at 1:12 pack odds, so say ~79000 base set refractors were made. Over a 241 base set checklist, this gets you to about ~325 refractors per player.

Following that, 1999 TC Series 2 with the "Fortune 15 Refractor" /100 insert and you get a base set refractor number in the same ballpark (~350) following the same steps.

2000 TC Series 1 had a Mark McGwire card /70, and extrapolating again yields about ~300 base refractors.

1996 Topps Chrome was a new (and thereby unproven) set, and as stated above, not introduced into a strong baseball market (the strike was very recent...). I don't believe that in the late 90s, when baseball was seeing a popularity renaissance due to the McGwire and Sosa home run races, that Topps would have cut production of refractors down to the ~300 range (especially compared to a set with print runs from 3 years before). Topps Chrome was becoming more established, and so it's only logical that the print run would be increasing each year.

[BosPats1980]

I loved the 1996 Topps Chrome Baseball set when it came out. Those refractors were very hard to find and the rumors were rampant on PR. I do believe that unlike in Basketball (Which was retail only) that they made a Retail box and Hobby Box. I'd just be guessing but I would have thought that maybe 150-200 would be the PR for Refractors (Probably closer to 150) Great set with a ton of awesome players and memories. Good luck with your journey

I used to own these:

[dev6015]

Originally Posted by whyconform

Rats60, you're mixing up 93 finest with 96 finest gold. There was a stated run of 150 Finest Gold refractors, until a Maddux collector got more, sued, and they settled.

The OP is waaayyy off here, and it's ok. You def tried, assuming things.... 95 Finest refractors were 1:12 and had a print run of 550. It seems believable based on how often they pop up compared to other inserts. That's finest, the lowest print run priduct. In 96, I'd imagine there would be more TC than Finest, and I'd guess ~300 or so Finest Gold Refractors.

That said, I would bet 1000 easy. Compared to 93 finest, which was a major HIT/chase card when it came out, the TC Refractor wasn't that special until the crossover people decided it was. Many, many I guarantee reside in toploaders and binders.

This is interesting data and I actually hadn't seen that there were 550 refractors in 1995 Topps Finest. That being said, I'm not sure I buy the assumption that 1995 Finest, in its third year (and having been VERY popular and with a documented massive increase in print run during 1994, per BB Card Pedia) would be printed at a rate lower than the inaugural Topps Chrome set in 1996. Topps already had a proof of concept for their super-premium Finest product in 1995 and TC would have been a new "upper middle class" product for them, which likely would have been launched in a more limited fashion as a pilot / test balloon.

I don't think there are 1,000...but maybe 135 is a bit low. It seems like raw Jeters and Griffeys hardly ever show up any more, hence my using pop report as the baseline for my estimate.

[SearchPatrol]

I would definitely say that less 1995 Finest refractor exist than 1996 Topps Chrome Refractors. Finest was an absolute DUD in 1994 and with the strike, everybody was moving away from it in 95.

[msink28]

1999 Topps Chrome Series 1 /100 refractors were hobby only. No mention of retail production. I believe that Series 2 /100 refractors were also hobby only and that baseballcardpedia is not correct. Otherwise, there would be no difference between hobby and retail. Baseballcardpedia is amazing but does have incomplete information from time to time, see 2017 Stadium Club which doesn't even discuss the Members Only parallel.

2000 Topps Chrome Allegiance refractors were also hobby only and are /100. Same deal, except Topps upped the print run a bit from 1999.

Originally Posted by Quake

1996 refractors really are in the 125-175 range (up to ~1.5 million card total print run). I'd have a real hard time buying a production more than that.

For reference, the first two years Topps Chrome had numbered cards were 1999 and 2000. All numbers are from the baseballcardpedia, until I can find packs from the product showing otherwise -I already confirmed the 1996 numbers earlier today with a wrapper picture.

1999 TC Series 1 had "Early Road to the Hall Refractor" /100, a set of 10 cards with 1:944 pack odds. If all 1000 cards are evenly distributed, this guestimates 944,000 packs produced (~3.8 million cards). Base set refractors were at 1:12 pack odds, so say ~79000 base set refractors were made. Over a 241 base set checklist, this gets you to about ~325 refractors per player.

Following that, 1999 TC Series 2 with the "Fortune 15 Refractor" /100 insert and you get a base set refractor number in the same ballpark (~350) following the same steps.

2000 TC Series 1 had a Mark McGwire card /70, and extrapolating again yields about ~300 base refractors.

1996 Topps Chrome was a new (and thereby unproven) set, and as stated above, not introduced into a strong baseball market (the strike was very recent...). I don't believe that in the late 90s, when baseball was seeing a popularity renaissance due to the McGwire and Sosa home run races, that Topps would have cut production of refractors down to the ~300 range (especially compared to a set with print runs from 3 years before). Topps Chrome was becoming more established, and so it's only logical that the print run would be increasing each year.

[marinocollector]

If there were only 150 of each 96 Topps Chrome refractor made, people would have noticed they weren't around 20 years ago.

Chrome was unbelievably hot come 1997 in all 3 major sports. Anything with that low of a print at that time would have skyrocketed.

Basketball had a higher print run that only 150 per refractor and it was the only retail only version.

Baseball and football both and hobby and retail boxes. In baseball, Hobby was 24 packs and a green hue. Retail was 20 packs and a blue hue.

You guys really need to do more research than pop reports.

Its not common for an entire print run, or even 20% of a print run from the 90s-00s to be graded.

Especially low end, typically off center or scratched cards like 96 Topps Chrome.

I would assume 800-1200 of these. Definitely nothing less than 600. At 600 made, you have approx. 50,000 boxes and only 30,000 base cards. Both incredibly low numbers for a 1996 hobby/retail product. Also, a reminder, the basketball set was the test set. Topps made baseball and football because the basketball set was a moderate success for them.

Time passes, people buy items and hoard them because they believe in the product. A first year Chrome refractor of Griffey or Jeter at $20-30? I imagine theres someone sitting on quite a few.

[marinocollector]

https://www.ebay.ca/itm/275005784534...sAAOSwcKBhe3VU

[marinocollector]

Also, I would say a lot more 93 Finest Griffeys are crossed or surfaces cleaned.

And as far as 96 Mirrors go.... they're a great set to resub. Most collectors dont know the cards have a protective film which looks like crap and knocks down a grade 1-2 points. So many in the know collectors see a bad surface, buy low, peel, and re sub.

[dev6015]

Great thoughts from everyone. Seems like opinions range from "this is right on" to "there's up to 1,000." I think I'm settling it at slightly higher than my original estimates, but probably no more than 200. The higher number of basketball refractors in the PSA pop report is the biggest fly in the ointment to me, but we might be trying to compare apples to oranges.

I'll be interested to keep checking eBay listings / sales and the pop reports to see if more of these pop up in raw form and/or are converted into grades as PSA and BGS work through their backlogs. I understand that some people don't like using the pop report method to estimate print runs...and I don't blame them! It is admittedly imperfect. But other than the anecdotal evidence of product availability / print runs from the mid-90's and stated or inferred print runs from future years of TC, that's about the best we can do.

Either way, I appreciate you all jumping in and adding to my pet project in the dark days of the baseball offseason!

[rats60]

Originally Posted by marinocollector

If there were only 150 of each 96 Topps Chrome refractor made, people would have noticed they weren't around 20 years ago.

Chrome was unbelievably hot come 1997 in all 3 major sports. Anything with that low of a print at that time would have skyrocketed.

Basketball had a higher print run that only 150 per refractor and it was the only retail only version.

Baseball and football both and hobby and retail boxes. In baseball, Hobby was 24 packs and a green hue. Retail was 20 packs and a blue hue.

You guys really need to do more research than pop reports.

Its not common for an entire print run, or even 20% of a print run from the 90s-00s to be graded.

Especially low end, typically off center or scratched cards like 96 Topps Chrome.

I would assume 800-1200 of these. Definitely nothing less than 600. At 600 made, you have approx. 50,000 boxes and only 30,000 base cards. Both incredibly low numbers for a 1996 hobby/retail product. Also, a reminder, the basketball set was the test set. Topps made baseball and football because the basketball set was a moderate success for them.

Time passes, people buy items and hoard them because they believe in the product. A first year Chrome refractor of Griffey or Jeter at $20-30? I imagine theres someone sitting on quite a few.

When Chrome Basketball came out in 1997 it sat in Sam's Club's, not to mention at Walmarts. It was not hot. It didn't heat up until the next year when Kobe Bryant started playing better and made the AS game. It wasn't retail only, it was an exclusive for Sam's/Walmart and they got a lot of it. There was definitely a lot less Chrome Baseball than either Chrome Basketball or Finest Baseball.

People didn't notice because there was no demand for the product. When Topps made Bowman Chrome in 1997, collectors continued to ignore Topps Chrome with no RCs. As for FB, 1998 was the first year Football Collectors cared about Chrome, with Moss and Manning RCs. No need to do research when I was setting up at shows and know what collectors were buying instead of just making things up.