2024-25 NBA MVP Thread

[GOATcards]

Looks like basically the same top 3 contenders as last season. Rough average of current betting odds:

Lulu: +375
Joker: +400
SGA: +475

Embiid/Giannis: +900

Ant: +1200
Non-Viet Brunson: +1500

JayTay/Slemby: +2000

Jamelle: +3300

Babyface: +4500

Slim: +8000

Zi/Ty/Spi: +10K

Okay so we have our 3 All-NBA teams all set

Looks like SGA numbers are boosted by the OKC championship odds, how about we have a look there:

BOSS: +325
OKComputer: +700
NYK: +750
PHI: +900 (let's make amigo�� cry again)
DEN: +1000 (no more Bubblemurray?)
MIN/DAL: +1100
MIL: +1350

everyone else +3000-up

As a GOAT-discussion clecter, should I just stock up further on the top 3 even at today's prices, I might be turning into a silverprizm junkie

Maybe I should just stock up more on MJ

[GOATcards]

other than the '70s dead zone, was there a timeframe that the top 3 players at any one time didn't end up in the Legends (top ~18-20) discussion

[Torro]

Would be great if Luka finally wins one, Jokic already got his. SGA might pull it off if Europeans get injured or their teams fail them. I would but Embiid at the same level as SGA (some things need to happen for them to win). Wild card - Tatum revenge MVP season?

[jcardstore]

I think Denver is on the decline so I wouldn’t take Jokic.

SGA is a solid choice but there’s so much talent on OKC I could see how he misses out

That leaves Luka, who really has no competition for the ball and is gonna put up MVP numbers, it just comes down to whether the Mavs can get a top3 seed or not

Wemby is worth a small dart throw for fun although that’s pretty much a 0% chance

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

I think Denver is on the decline so I wouldn’t take Jokic.

SGA is a solid choice but there’s so much talent on OKC I could see how he misses out

That leaves Luka, who really has no competition for the ball and is gonna put up MVP numbers, it just comes down to whether the Mavs can get a top3 seed or not

Wemby is worth a small dart throw for fun although that’s pretty much a 0% chance

I don't see how SGA is not the favorite.

- Who's gonna get more touches in OKC? I think J-Dub for sure and Chet's go higher a bit more. But then you replaced Giddey with Caruso, so that should make it up.
- Klay is going to shoot the ball, if anything, I can see Luka's usage going slightly lower next season.
- OKC should get the 1st seed. Can't see any other team beating them. Regular season Dallas is going to contend for a Top 4 seed but I can't see them with a better record than OKC.

[sethc1020]

I think its Lukas time to take it home this year, with the addition of Klay it gives them a legitimate spot up shooter that can knock them down. That plus Lively getting a year better I can see the Mavs as a top 3 team in the West. Also don't sleep on Ant making some noise as well. With KAT gone its fully his team now and I believe he's ready to take the next step .

[kaisersoze]

Originally Posted by sethc1020

I think its Lukas time to take it home this year, with the addition of Klay it gives them a legitimate spot up shooter that can knock them down. That plus Lively getting a year better I can see the Mavs as a top 3 team in the West. Also don't sleep on Ant making some noise as well. With KAT gone its fully his team now and I believe he's ready to take the next step .

i feel the same about luka and the mavs. ant i think will take a step back. charlotte i think will be a sleeper team in the east

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

I don't see how SGA is not the favorite.

- Who's gonna get more touches in OKC? I think J-Dub for sure and Chet's go higher a bit more. But then you replaced Giddey with Caruso, so that should make it up.
- Klay is going to shoot the ball, if anything, I can see Luka's usage going slightly lower next season.
- OKC should get the 1st seed. Can't see any other team beating them. Regular season Dallas is going to contend for a Top 4 seed but I can't see them with a better record than OKC.

His usage on that team has probably peaked. Giddey or not there just aren't more shots to go around for him and I don't think he has the personality to do it.

The NBA is looking for a face of the league and that's just not SGA, for as good as he is.

Luka is coming off a finals berth, coming into the year with a much better team around him. I think the league wants a Luka year

[Scottish Punk]

Having Luka's usage goes down actually increases his MVP chances I think. He will be more efficient and more importantly the team will win more. We all know, a lot of times, this just goes to the best player on the best team. Klay is great add to the Mavs.

Of course, if he comes into camp fat and it takes him a month to get rolling...

[msink28]

i like tatum at +2000, he's typically durable and there will be some bizarro redemption narrative around him this year.

man, put me in the minority but how are the knicks at +750. do KAT and Bridges move the needle that much when you lose DiVincenzo, Randle and Hartenstein? I don't get it.

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

His usage on that team has probably peaked. Giddey or not there just aren't more shots to go around for him and I don't think he has the personality to do it.

The NBA is looking for a face of the league and that's just not SGA, for as good as he is.

Luka is coming off a finals berth, coming into the year with a much better team around him. I think the league wants a Luka year

I think they want it too and they specially want to avoid another Jokic year. Hell, they probably want an Ant year too.

I just think regular season Luka is not gonna be as great as last year. Not a knock on him but if Klay wasn't happy enough to stay with 15 shots a game and a 24% usage, has he really not being promised more than that at Dallas?

I think SGA can repeat last year, win 60+ games and have the best record in the conference. If Luka wins under 55 with raw numbers falling from last season, who wins it? I think SGA.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by Scottish Punk

Having Luka's usage goes down actually increases his MVP chances I think. He will be more efficient and more importantly the team will win more. We all know, a lot of times, this just goes to the best player on the best team. Klay is great add to the Mavs.

Of course, if he comes into camp fat and it takes him a month to get rolling...

Well usage rate is just an expression of how many possessions you use so it’s not really correlated with efficiency.

More usage = more stats (loosely)

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

I think they want it too and they specially want to avoid another Jokic year. Hell, they probably want an Ant year too.

I just think regular season Luka is not gonna be as great as last year. Not a knock on him but if Klay wasn't happy enough to stay with 15 shots a game and a 24% usage, has he really not being promised more than that at Dallas?

I think SGA can repeat last year, win 60+ games and have the best record in the conference. If Luka wins under 55 with raw numbers falling from last season, who wins it? I think SGA.

I think if stats and wins are even somewhat close it’ll be Luka because the narrative is leaned so heavily in that direction

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by GOATcards

other than the '70s dead zone, was there a timeframe that the top 3 players at any one time didn't end up in the Legends (top ~18-20) discussion

come to think of it, just a couple/few seasons ago Troel was in top-3 MVP voting and yet his career is too injury/choke-riddled for top-20 consideration

same issue for Beard despite his '14-20 run

[daeve]

Lulu is yesterday's news according to the GM's polled

NBA GMs on who they would start a franchise with: Victor Wembanyama (77%), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (10%), Nikola Jokic (10%), Luka Doncic (3%)

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by daeve

Lulu is yesterday's news according to the GM's polled

Well that's asking a totally different question.

I don't think anyone is seriously betting on Wemby being MVP this year

[daeve]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

Well that's asking a totally different question.

I don't think anyone is seriously betting on Wemby being MVP this year

Not really, it's the MVP question but with more 'future' baked in. Luka's also well behind a guy older than him in Joker and one who developmentally is near the same place in Shai.

Wemby will make a leap, or if he just continues a linear development from what we saw in the second half of last season, and once that's established he'll be the steady MVP favorite and it will take more from Luka to win back that shine or narrative.

This is a very make or break year for his legacy as far as accolades go - the problem for him is that Jokic is still the best player on the planet and that Wemby is very close to already being in that conversation. Joker's continued dominance and Wemby's quick ascent has shrunk Luka's window considerably. Plus the brewing dynasty in OKC, who look like the team to beat in the West.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by daeve

Not really, it's the MVP question but with more 'future' baked in. Luka's also well behind a guy older than him in Joker and one who developmentally is near the same place in Shai.

Wemby will make a leap, or if he just continues a linear development from what we saw in the second half of last season, and once that's established he'll be the steady MVP favorite and it will take more from Luka to win back that shine or narrative.

This is a very make or break year for his legacy as far as accolades go - the problem for him is that Jokic is still the best player on the planet and that Wemby is very close to already being in that conversation. Joker's continued dominance and Wemby's quick ascent has shrunk Luka's window considerably. Plus the brewing dynasty in OKC, who look like the team to beat in the West.

Point in time MVP and future franchise leader are not even in the same realm.

Wemby is 5 years younger than Luka.

The spurs are much much worse than the Mavs and have essentially no chance at a playoff spot. The only player to ever win an MVP while their team missed the playoffs was Kareem and he was 28 with only 18 teams in the league.

I will bet my entire lifetimes worth of earnings that we will never see that scenario again.

To address the point in the bolded: it's wild to me that you think year 5 is make it or break it for accolades for Luka as if players don't even win anything after 25. LeBron won 2 more MVPs after 25 and 4 rings. Jordan won 4 MVPs and all 6 rings after 25.

Also I'm sorry but Wemby is not even close to best player in the league. He's very good, he has a strong chance to be the best player in the league eventually but currently he's not even top10.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by daeve

Not really, it's the MVP question but with more 'future' baked in. Luka's also well behind a guy older than him in Joker and one who developmentally is near the same place in Shai.

Wemby will make a leap, or if he just continues a linear development from what we saw in the second half of last season, and once that's established he'll be the steady MVP favorite and it will take more from Luka to win back that shine or narrative.

This is a very make or break year for his legacy as far as accolades go - the problem for him is that Jokic is still the best player on the planet and that Wemby is very close to already being in that conversation. Joker's continued dominance and Wemby's quick ascent has shrunk Luka's window considerably. Plus the brewing dynasty in OKC, who look like the team to beat in the West.

It's been 6 years in the league for Luka. He bought himself some time in the hobby world by making a Finals run last year. IMO, he probably has 2 more years in which he needs an MVP or Championship before the shine starts to wear off of his hobby status.

But you're right, Wemby's ascent impacts this too.

[jcardstore]

Luka is also a better player than Shai with a much worse team.

The Mavs got significantly better this year so that's giving Luka a lot of juice. OKC is what OKC is and Shai has probably peaked stats and usage-wise on this current team.

Denver is falling off and the voters are tired of giving Jokic MVPs. 3 in 4 years is about as much as you can get, if not for voter fatigue it would have been 4 years in a row. Being the best player doesn't mean you'll win MVP

[The Accountant]

Luka and Shai are solid bets. I like Brunson as well.

Embiid and Jokic both take a step back, but Jokic may also get the 2021 treatment, in which they finish as the sixth seed, but he carries them. Embiid will be a beast, but he's made it clear that the priority is the postseason and Drummond will get a lot of start IMO.

If I was putting money on it, I'd pick SGA.

[daeve]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

Point in time MVP and future franchise leader are not even in the same realm.

Wemby is 5 years younger than Luka.

The spurs are much much worse than the Mavs and have essentially no chance at a playoff spot. The only player to ever win an MVP while their team missed the playoffs was Kareem and he was 28 with only 18 teams in the league.

I will bet my entire lifetimes worth of earnings that we will never see that scenario again.

To address the point in the bolded: it's wild to me that you think year 5 is make it or break it for accolades for Luka as if players don't even win anything after 25. LeBron won 2 more MVPs after 25 and 4 rings. Jordan won 4 MVPs and all 6 rings after 25.

Also I'm sorry but Wemby is not even close to best player in the league. He's very good, he has a strong chance to be the best player in the league eventually but currently he's not even top10.

lol then please explain why 3 of the top 4 mentioned are the top 3 gambling favorites right now...?

to the 2nd bolded, we are heading into Luka's 7th season, where are you getting "year 5"?

I think Wemby will absolutely be a top 10 player his season, barring health.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by daeve

lol then please explain why 3 of the top 4 mentioned are the top 3 gambling favorites right now...?

to the 2nd bolded, we are heading into Luka's 7th season, where are you getting "year 5"?

I think Wemby will absolutely be a top 10 player his season, barring health.

because they are, in most circumstances, similar. Generally, the best players are the MVP front runners, and also the guys you want to start a franchise with.

but context matters and you're just doing yourself a disservice by ignoring it. A vote for Wemby for who you'd start a franchise with is not even remotely close to asking if you would vote for him for MVP this season. If it was the vegas odds would reflect that.

I meant age 25 and just typed year 5. Very few players win MVPs or rings before 25, it's just how the NBA is. Unless you're lucky enough to be drafted into an already stacked team (Magic) but that's a once in a lifetime outlier.

Almost always, the best players go to the worst teams and it takes 5-6-7+ years to build a team around them to support the start winning anything

[jcardstore]

As for Wemby, he might be a top 10 player this season, but there's still a huge gap between top 3 and top 10 when you're talking MVP voting.

[RKH916]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

Well usage rate is just an expression of how many possessions you use so it’s not really correlated with efficiency.

High usage, generally, does negatively impact efficiencies. There are a few unicorns in history who have maintained efficiencies with higher usage rates, but they're very rare.