The Luka Doncic Experiment

theLUCKYshow · 12-10-2018, 01:30 PM

What's up BO. If you look around we've got a lot of popular threads pertaining to Prizm so I thought why not have one more!

This one's a little different though. I'm going to share with you all the purchases I've made and will make on Luka this year, all the costs of grading, then all the sales of the cards I've purchased. So this is more a "speculation" thread with updates when I sell or pick up more Lukas. At the end of the season I'll total everything up and see how I did.

I admittedly got caught up in the hype with my 1st few silver purchases but I've gotten some better deals as of late. Nothing is going to be sugar-coated. If I paid too much I'm not embarrassed to show it.

Updated Inventory with sales:

Inventory with sales:

Total spent on cards: $18,948.52 (37 cards)
Avg purchase price per card: $512.12
Grading costs: $669
Sold (after fees): $4209.32 (5 cards)
Profit/loss from sold cards: +$1,172.52
TOTAL Profit/loss: -$15,408.20 (32 cards remaining)

Silver Prizms (13):
$520 PSA 10 - SOLD ($850- Fees)= $739.20 (Profit of $219.20)
$399 PSA 10 (lot w ruby wave and base) SOLD ($755 -Fees)= $656.55 (Profit of $257.55)
$375 PSA 10
$350 PSA 10(lot w hyper luck of lottery and 2 base)
$344 PSA 10
$324 PSA 10
$315 PSA 10 (lot w red ice and 3 base)
$318.50 PSA 10
$299
$293.49
$260
$253.99
$250 (lot w green emergent, phenom, and 2 base)
$212.50
$187

Blue Prizms (1):
$500 PSA 9 - SOLD 1/27/19 ($850 -Fees)=$739.20 (Profit of $239.20)
$300

Blue Ice Prizm (0):
$813.50 (PSA 10) SOLD ($1725.02 - FEEs) = $1500.47 ($686.97 Profit)

Mojo Luck of the Lottery (1):
$803.50 (PSA 10) SOLD ($660-FEEs) = $573.90 ($230.40 Loss)
$605

Optic Holo:
$140 sold -lot
$69.05 (lot w the Rookies)
$59
$55
$50x2
$42.99

Optic Orange /199 (1):
$188.50

Optic Black Velocity (1):
$1226

Optic Pink Velocity (1):
$450

Optic Blue Velocity (1):
$65

Contenders Finals Auto /49 (1):
$1400- $100 Seller refund -$500 ebay bucks = $800

Contenders Optic Preview SSP (1):
$628.50

Certified Gold Base /10 (1):
$304.50

Certified Green Graffiti /5 (1):
$250

Crown Royale Kaboom! (2):
$725 BGS 9.5
$600

Revolution Sunburst /75 (1):
$79

Revolution Cubic /50 (2):
$156.45
$135

Revolution Auto (1):
$175

Revolution Galactic SSP (2):
$2402.99
$2010

Will I make money? Lose money? Break even? Let's find out together.

* * *

A lot has happened since I started this thread. The experiment has turned mostly into PC items as it has been too much fun watching Doncic's game and card prices rise. Some people have told me to cash out while I can, but Im here for the long haul and cant wait to follow Luka's career with his cards in-hand.

Im trying to do a fun update so Im putting together my TOP 25 Luka's and how much they are worth as compared to how much I paid for them. Hope to get it posted by 12/17/19, just waiting on a redemption.

And thanks for all the support!

tjforce · 12-10-2018, 01:32 PM

Love it. Thank you for sharing and I'm excited to follow along.

LeonfromNC · 12-10-2018, 01:33 PM

OP I respect you as a fellow Kings fan, but unless you get some PSA 10's back you're gonna lose your a$$ on this investment. Even if you hit some PSA 10's it's not looking good.

Are you sending to BGS or PSA?

Boomer105 · 12-10-2018, 01:36 PM

Interesting..will be following!

Texanwatson · 12-10-2018, 01:37 PM

Thanks for sharing, really appreciate the transparency

theLUCKYshow · 12-10-2018, 01:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tjforce

Love it. Thank you fore sharing and I'm exciting to follow along.

Thanks. Good companion thread to your Investment thread hopefully.

Quote:

Originally Posted by LeonfromNC

OP I respect you as a fellow Kings fan, but unless you get some PSA 10's back you're gonna lose your a$$ on this investment. Even if you hit some PSA 10's it's not looking good.

Are you sending to BGS or PSA?

PSA. I've been really picky buying only nicely centered ones but, yes, a lot of my success will depend on grades. Hey if I lose money it'll show people the true gamble of speculating on rookies.

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ljandkg · 12-10-2018, 01:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by theLUCKYshow

Thanks. Good companion thread to your Investment thread hopefully.PSA. I've been really picky buying only nicely centered ones but, yes, a lot of my success will depend on grades. Hey if I lose money it'll show people the true gamble of speculating on rookies.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Really ballsy.
This is gonna be a great thread to follow!

theLUCKYshow · 12-10-2018, 01:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boomer105

Interesting..will be following!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Texanwatson

Thanks for sharing, really appreciate the transparency

Quote:

Originally Posted by ljandkg

Really ballsy.
This is gonna be a great thread to follow!

Thanks guys. I hope it's not a bloodbath!

I'll post pics up later as I'm expecting several today, then off for grading tomorrow. I'm actually thinking of sending a few into BGS (ones w Pristine potential). I'll keep you updated.

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stang_crazy · 12-10-2018, 01:56 PM

WOW that's a hell of a collection and experiment. Hopefully your stuff grades well which will help and hopefully for your sake the hype keeps building up a bit for luka even though its already pretty high.

But ill watch this thread for sure.

ballhawkdawk · 12-10-2018, 02:07 PM

Is this strictly a 2018-19 season experiment? Some of these could soar over a 4-5 year period.

the27guy · 12-10-2018, 02:12 PM

I love love love this. Anytime someone goes out on a limb like this, it's something that I can appreciate.

theLUCKYshow · 12-10-2018, 02:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stang_crazy

WOW that's a hell of a collection and experiment. Hopefully your stuff grades well which will help and hopefully for your sake the hype keeps building up a bit for luka even though its already pretty high.

But ill watch this thread for sure.

Thanks. Part of the gamble here rests on the success of the Mavericks. If they make the Playoffs, Doncic will be a big reason why, his "hype" will be off the charts, and I'd expect his cards to roughly double from where they are now. If they dont make the playoffs or if Doncic struggles or gets hurt, I'm going to lose money. If Dallas doesnt make the playoffs but Doncic wins ROY I think I can eek out a small profit or at least break even.

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theLUCKYshow · 12-10-2018, 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ballhawkdawk

Is this strictly a 2018-19 season experiment? Some of these could soar over a 4-5 year period.

It'll probably spill over into the summer but not past that. In a perfect world at the end of the summer I hope to have extra money in my pocket plus a few Luka silvers I can keep. How those Lukas do beyond next year is outside the scope of this "experiment".

Quote:

Originally Posted by the27guy

I love love love this. Anytime someone goes out on a limb like this, it's something that I can appreciate.

I appreciate choo too.

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GeechQuest · 12-10-2018, 02:31 PM

Cool idea and best of luck!

The first time I saw you post was when you picked up the NT /99 of Giles and everybody told you that you overpaid. You we're right with that one (albeit for a fleeting moment), so hopefully you come out ahead on these should you to choose to sell.

The average price paid for a Silver is $338.82. I think you should be able to grade and come out ahead on those.

You're at $400 average for the pair Doncic Blue's which, if graded, I think may break you even. Big bonus that the Blue /199 pairs nicely with the card as I think it gives it greater eye-appeal than blue's of the past.

That's a hefty price on the Blue Ice ($1000 for PSA 10 Mitchell at the peak), but who knows what happens with that set down the road?

I think the only tough things to profit on are the Mojo LOL and Certified Gold /10, as historically those cards haven't fetched the prices you paid.

It will be fun to watch you track this and interesting to see how it turns out. BOL!

slum22 · 12-10-2018, 02:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ljandkg

Really ballsy.
This is gonna be a great thread to follow!

This. I will root for you to get a lot of 10's. I think you will do well on the Silvers. As posted above, the Mojo LOTL, may be tough to profit on as for whatever reason people love 90's inserts on here but use present day inserts as toilet paper. Unless the insert set is a case hit or has been deemed worthy of having value by the right market makers.

theLUCKYshow · 12-10-2018, 02:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Cool idea and best of luck!

The first time I saw you post was when you picked up the NT /99 of Giles and everybody told you that you overpaid. You we're right with that one (albeit for a fleeting moment), so hopefully you come out ahead on these should you to choose to sell.

The average price paid for a Silver is $338.82. I think you should be able to grade and come out ahead on those.

You're at $400 average for the pair Doncic Blue's which, if graded, I think may break you even. Big bonus that the Blue /199 pairs nicely with the card as I think it gives it greater eye-appeal than blue's of the past.

That's a hefty price on the Blue Ice ($1000 for PSA 10 Mitchell at the peak), but who knows what happens with that set down the road?

I think the only tough things to profit on are the Mojo LOL and Certified Gold /10, as historically those cards haven't fetched the prices you paid.

It will be fun to watch you track this and interesting to see how it turns out. BOL!

Thanks!

The "collector" in me wanted the Blue Ice so maybe not the best reason: p

I kind of stumbled into the Mojo. BIN OBO of $2000, I made an offer of $800. 24 hours later it was accepted. I barely remembered making an offer. Beautiful card though (pump). $1k firm for any1 who wants it before I send it off to PSA (dump?).

Edit: it was $1499 bin obo
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ThoseBackPages · 12-10-2018, 02:47 PM

are the prices listed in order of pick-up? from first to last?

theLUCKYshow · 12-10-2018, 03:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

are the prices listed in order of pick-up? from first to last?

No just from highest to lowest. But, in general, yes.

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theLUCKYshow · 12-10-2018, 03:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slum22

This. I will root for you to get a lot of 10's. I think you will do well on the Silvers. As posted above, the Mojo LOTL, may be tough to profit on as for whatever reason people love 90's inserts on here but use present day inserts as toilet paper. Unless the insert set is a case hit or has been deemed worthy of having value by the right market makers.

Thanks man. The Luck of the Lottery has a decent following but I agree not a huge amount of upside.

Now what service to choose?

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regularp · 12-10-2018, 03:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slum22

This. I will root for you to get a lot of 10's. I think you will do well on the Silvers. As posted above, the Mojo LOTL, may be tough to profit on as for whatever reason people love 90's inserts on here but use present day inserts as toilet paper. Unless the insert set is a case hit or has been deemed worthy of having value by the right market makers.

In 10-20 years, those cards could be a lot bigger. 90s inserts didn't start out this pricey either besides a select few.

LeonfromNC · 12-10-2018, 03:41 PM

If you want to capitalize on your investment PSA 15 day service at $20 a pop is the way to go. Probably will have them back after the new year.

theLUCKYshow · 12-10-2018, 03:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LeonfromNC

If you want to capitalize on your investment PSA 15 day service at $20 a pop is the way to go. Probably will have them back after the new year.

Ok, I agree. I'm going to do 15 day for the Silvers, Blues and the Gold Certified, then Express 8-day for the Mojo and Blue Ice.

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nickha2 · 12-10-2018, 04:07 PM

I think the problem you may have recouping your investment can be see already in the price range of the silvers. When the cheapest ones are 1/2 the price of the most expensive you could have gotten double the amount had you waited. With more and more silvers becoming available everyday prizm is always a safer bet to buy later on unless they are low numbered prizms that you may not get the chance to own ever.

Not knowing the print run but guesstimating silvers are out of 4000 you could wait for the price to drop lower than it is. I could see these dropping below 200 in the next week.

Best of luck hope I am wrong.

RAV2773 · 12-10-2018, 04:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nickha2

I think the problem you may have recouping your investment can be see already in the price range of the silvers. When the cheapest ones are 1/2 the price of the most expensive you could have gotten double the amount had you waited. With more and more silvers becoming available everyday prizm is always a safer bet to buy later on unless they are low numbered prizms that you may not get the chance to own ever.

Not knowing the print run but guesstimating silvers are out of 4000 you could wait for the price to drop lower than it is. I could see these dropping below 200 in the next week.

Best of luck hope I am wrong.

I absolutely think they will drop under $200. Maybe not in the next week, but within the next month or so. Hopefully you get high grades OP so that you can recoup some of that initial cashflow. Good luck to you either way. Great thread though, gives us a snapshot of what we all pretty much risk when we speculate on rookies and hot product investments.

RogerGodahell · 12-10-2018, 04:18 PM

Very nice collection so far. What i'd personally do if i owned them is send them all to PSA for grading and keep them. If you plan on selling them i'd at least wait until the start of next year. Either that or get them sent in real quick and try to be one of the first few selling graded. Honestly i'd just keep them though i think they'll be worth more in a few years. Kids a stud. I don't have any singles this year i changed up my collecting style. Im more into collecting boxes and cases of unopened stuff.

12-10-2018, 01:30 PM	#1
theLUCKYshow Member Join Date: Apr 2018 Location: Novato, CA Posts: 5,455 theluckshow	The Luka Doncic Experiment What's up BO. If you look around we've got a lot of popular threads pertaining to Prizm so I thought why not have one more! This one's a little different though. I'm going to share with you all the purchases I've made and will make on Luka this year, all the costs of grading, then all the sales of the cards I've purchased. So this is more a "speculation" thread with updates when I sell or pick up more Lukas. At the end of the season I'll total everything up and see how I did. I admittedly got caught up in the hype with my 1st few silver purchases but I've gotten some better deals as of late. Nothing is going to be sugar-coated. If I paid too much I'm not embarrassed to show it. Updated Inventory with sales: Inventory with sales: Total spent on cards: $18,948.52 (37 cards) Avg purchase price per card: $512.12 Grading costs: $669 Sold (after fees): $4209.32 (5 cards) Profit/loss from sold cards: +$1,172.52 TOTAL Profit/loss: -$15,408.20 (32 cards remaining) Silver Prizms (13): $520 PSA 10 - SOLD ($850- Fees)= $739.20 (Profit of $219.20) $399 PSA 10 (lot w ruby wave and base) SOLD ($755 -Fees)= $656.55 (Profit of $257.55) $375 PSA 10 $350 PSA 10(lot w hyper luck of lottery and 2 base) $344 PSA 10 $324 PSA 10 $315 PSA 10 (lot w red ice and 3 base) $318.50 PSA 10 $299 $293.49 $260 $253.99 $250 (lot w green emergent, phenom, and 2 base) $212.50 $187 Blue Prizms (1): $500 PSA 9 - SOLD 1/27/19 ($850 -Fees)=$739.20 (Profit of $239.20) $300 Blue Ice Prizm (0): $813.50 (PSA 10) SOLD ($1725.02 - FEEs) = $1500.47 ($686.97 Profit) Mojo Luck of the Lottery (1): $803.50 (PSA 10) SOLD ($660-FEEs) = $573.90 ($230.40 Loss) $605 Optic Holo: $140 sold -lot $69.05 (lot w the Rookies) $59 $55 $50x2 $42.99 Optic Orange /199 (1): $188.50 Optic Black Velocity (1): $1226 Optic Pink Velocity (1): $450 Optic Blue Velocity (1): $65 Contenders Finals Auto /49 (1): $1400- $100 Seller refund -$500 ebay bucks = $800 Contenders Optic Preview SSP (1): $628.50 Certified Gold Base /10 (1): $304.50 Certified Green Graffiti /5 (1): $250 Crown Royale Kaboom! (2): $725 BGS 9.5 $600 Revolution Sunburst /75 (1): $79 Revolution Cubic /50 (2): $156.45 $135 Revolution Auto (1): $175 Revolution Galactic SSP (2): $2402.99 $2010 Will I make money? Lose money? Break even? Let's find out together. * * * A lot has happened since I started this thread. The experiment has turned mostly into PC items as it has been too much fun watching Doncic's game and card prices rise. Some people have told me to cash out while I can, but Im here for the long haul and cant wait to follow Luka's career with his cards in-hand. Im trying to do a fun update so Im putting together my TOP 25 Luka's and how much they are worth as compared to how much I paid for them. Hope to get it posted by 12/17/19, just waiting on a redemption. And thanks for all the support! __________________ Always looking for high end Harry Giles AKA the Future Last edited by theLUCKYshow; 12-12-2019 at 01:55 PM.

12-10-2018, 01:32 PM	#2
tjforce Member Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 23,496	Love it. Thank you for sharing and I'm excited to follow along. __________________ "Whether you like it or not, learn to love it, because it’s the best thing going. Wooooo!" Last edited by tjforce; 03-21-2019 at 03:45 PM.

12-10-2018, 02:12 PM	#11
the27guy Member Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 14,673 the27guy the27guy	I love love love this. Anytime someone goes out on a limb like this, it's something that I can appreciate. __________________ @thereal27guy Founder of Basketball Card Fanatic Magazine

12-10-2018, 02:47 PM	#17
ThoseBackPages Member Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: Long Island Posts: 90,392 ThoseBackPages	are the prices listed in order of pick-up? from first to last? __________________ Pumpers Paradise #YouCryIBuy Four things that we cannot change each others minds about: Politics, Religion, Third Party Grading, and 2021 Bowman's Best Rookie Cards

12-10-2018, 04:07 PM	#23
nickha2 Member Join Date: Jun 2012 Location: Lambeau Field Posts: 6,907	I think the problem you may have recouping your investment can be see already in the price range of the silvers. When the cheapest ones are 1/2 the price of the most expensive you could have gotten double the amount had you waited. With more and more silvers becoming available everyday prizm is always a safer bet to buy later on unless they are low numbered prizms that you may not get the chance to own ever. Not knowing the print run but guesstimating silvers are out of 4000 you could wait for the price to drop lower than it is. I could see these dropping below 200 in the next week. Best of luck hope I am wrong. __________________ We have numbered to 99, numbered to 99. MR. Brandon Cooks, Brandon Cooks...... Brandon Cooks numbered to 99, Brandon Cooks numbered to 99. Sorry had to answer an email right quick.

12-10-2018, 01:33 PM	#3
LeonfromNC Member Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 15,219	OP I respect you as a fellow Kings fan, but unless you get some PSA 10's back you're gonna lose your a$$ on this investment. Even if you hit some PSA 10's it's not looking good. Are you sending to BGS or PSA?

12-10-2018, 01:36 PM	#4
Boomer105 Member Join Date: Jan 2017 Posts: 591	Interesting..will be following!

12-10-2018, 01:37 PM	#5
Texanwatson Banned - PBM Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 374	Thanks for sharing, really appreciate the transparency

12-10-2018, 01:56 PM	#9
stang_crazy Member Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: Nebraska Posts: 1,655 stangcrazygt stang_crazy	WOW that's a hell of a collection and experiment. Hopefully your stuff grades well which will help and hopefully for your sake the hype keeps building up a bit for luka even though its already pretty high. But ill watch this thread for sure.

12-10-2018, 02:07 PM	#10
ballhawkdawk Member Join Date: Nov 2017 Location: Downingtown, PA Posts: 7,485	Is this strictly a 2018-19 season experiment? Some of these could soar over a 4-5 year period.

12-10-2018, 02:31 PM	#14
GeechQuest Member Join Date: Jan 2014 Location: Cedar Park, TX Posts: 10,779 GeechQuest	Cool idea and best of luck! The first time I saw you post was when you picked up the NT /99 of Giles and everybody told you that you overpaid. You we're right with that one (albeit for a fleeting moment), so hopefully you come out ahead on these should you to choose to sell. The average price paid for a Silver is $338.82. I think you should be able to grade and come out ahead on those. You're at $400 average for the pair Doncic Blue's which, if graded, I think may break you even. Big bonus that the Blue /199 pairs nicely with the card as I think it gives it greater eye-appeal than blue's of the past. That's a hefty price on the Blue Ice ($1000 for PSA 10 Mitchell at the peak), but who knows what happens with that set down the road? I think the only tough things to profit on are the Mojo LOL and Certified Gold /10, as historically those cards haven't fetched the prices you paid. It will be fun to watch you track this and interesting to see how it turns out. BOL!

12-10-2018, 03:41 PM	#21
LeonfromNC Member Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 15,219	If you want to capitalize on your investment PSA 15 day service at $20 a pop is the way to go. Probably will have them back after the new year.

12-10-2018, 04:18 PM	#25
RogerGodahell Banned Join Date: Jun 2015 Location: Cardboard Enthusiast Posts: 20,783 RogerGodahell	Very nice collection so far. What i'd personally do if i owned them is send them all to PSA for grading and keep them. If you plan on selling them i'd at least wait until the start of next year. Either that or get them sent in real quick and try to be one of the first few selling graded. Honestly i'd just keep them though i think they'll be worth more in a few years. Kids a stud. I don't have any singles this year i changed up my collecting style. Im more into collecting boxes and cases of unopened stuff.