Probability

[jrpgsxr]

I’m no math matician here and I’ve probably had one too many drinks but I started thinking. Are the odds of pulling a jersey# card more difficult than a 1/1?? Someone with a brain far superior than mine must have the answer.

[mnvikingstwins]

Subscribing for the morning

[Astros19]

I would imagine the print run of the jersey numbered card would come into play.
Like hitting number 12/28 opposed to number 12/3500.
Then again, math is hard at 1 o'clock in the morning.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

[pgisback]

Depends on how many 1/1s and jersey #d cards there are. If there is 1 1/1 and 1 jersey #d card, then the odds are the same.

[Fenway55]

Originally Posted by jrpgsxr

I’m no math matician here and I’ve probably had one too many drinks but I started thinking. Are the odds of pulling a jersey# card more difficult than a 1/1?? Someone with a brain far superior than mine must have the answer.

You haven’t provided enough information in your question because to answer it, I’d need to know the number of parallel sets, what they are numbered to, and what the actual jersey number you’re seeking is. For example, it’s easier to get a Brady jersey number than a Gronk because if you have a parallel set like Purple Power #d to 49 then Gronk’s jersey number doesn’t even exist in that parallel set whereas Brady’s does.

As a general rule and based on how Panini does things for base sets, jersey numbers are quite a bit easier than 1/1’s. If we use Prizm as an example, every player has only one 1/1 but they have at least 5 jersey numbers (hyper, orange, red wave, light blue, blue scope). Most players - especially position players with numbers in the teens or lower - have even more jersey numbers. For example, Tom Brady has an additional 3 jersey numbers with Green Crystals, Purple Power and Camo so his total is 8. However Gronk, #87 in your program, is stuck with a mere 5 jersey numbers.

It is worth noting that if a release has printing plates (and you consider those each a 1/1) then a player could be considered to have five 1/1’s in the base set, and the release may not have that many parallel sets so in those examples, getting a 1/1 would be easier.

It is also worth noting the above reasoning might not apply to an insert set. Take, for example, Stained Glass. Every player has a 1/1 version and a gold #/10. As such, the 1/1 is easier to get than the jersey number for most players since most players wouldn’t even have a jersey number in that distribution.

[Fenway55]

Originally Posted by Astros19

I would imagine the print run of the jersey numbered card would come into play.
Like hitting number 12/28 opposed to number 12/3500.
Then again, math is hard at 1 o'clock in the morning.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

Assuming each card is pulled from the same product, your odds of hitting 12/28 are the same as hitting 12/3500. When I say “same product” what I mean is that if, for example, the 12/28 is pulled from hobby and the 12/3500 is pulled from retail, then the odds would not be the same because hobby and retail have different print runs.

However, as I mentioned in my above post, print run does play a factor because if the print run is low enough, you won’t get that player’s jersey. If the print run is 5, you aren’t going to get a jersey number for Tom Brady. 12/28 is easier to get than 12/5 because there’s no such thing as 12/5.

[RogerGodahell]

It would be the same. Say you had a print run of 100. Pulling any specific numbered card would be the same odds, 1/100, 50/100, 100/100, or 1/1.

[mc1]

Jersey # = BO 1/1

[pcarlson05]

In each case you are looking for one unique card out of a total product print run of X. Same odds.

[hawkeyecards]

Originally Posted by pgisback

Depends on how many 1/1s and jersey #d cards there are. If there is 1 1/1 and 1 jersey #d card, then the odds are the same.

What if it's a 1/1 Jersey Patch for Cam Newton? That'd be a 1/1 1/1 of right?