Sixty Years for One Pack Hit? The Wild Odds of 1991 Donruss Elite

[mouschi]

Let's talk about 1991 Donruss!



Mediocre. Lackluster. Predictable. That's what some collectors said about Donruss' first two series release. It has been said that the production run was at its highest with the brand in '91, allegedly having printed 3,000,000 of each base card.

To make matters worse, the set was pretty much a barren wasteland. But to me, they were spectacular.

You would find this 10 year old boy in the back of mom and dad's car at a Christmas tree farm Christmas time of 1990, excited beyond belief, for he had with him, a few unopened packs of '91 Donruss, not even knowing what they looked like. 1990 had bright red borders. What would they be like this time? Who would the puzzle be of? Could I pull a hot rookie? Better yet ... a Jose Canseco?

I eagerly ripped into the packs, and enjoyed the stark contrast to the 90s - deep blue borders with period-appropriate Saved by the Bell style accents. Not bad. Not bad at all!

As luck would have it, I'd pull a Jose Canseco card! But this was different from the others. It had a star, and an American league logo. An All-Star card? Okay, cool. But man, what about the main card? I'd have to wait about a half year until Donruss dropped the green bordered series 2 boxes. Bummer, his flagship card sure would have looked cool in blue. Oh well, no biggie!

If there is one thing you probably know about '91 Donruss, it is that there are in fact some gems to be found - the 1991 Donruss Elite series cards. These are the first machine stamped serial numbered cards, and Jose Canseco is in the set. And guess what? I didn't even know about them. Curiously enough, they don't even advertise them on their boxes!

Now let me step back a sec - I *may* have known about them as a kid, but like Jose's Rated Rookie card, it was simply far too great for me to even begin to dream about pulling. Whenever I opened a box (or packs) of 1991 Donruss, there was never an inkling of thought that crossed my mind that I may be holding an Elite. Seriously, it was much too big of a card for me to even imagine.

The Elite series set that Jose is in is serial numbered to 10,000 copies. That print run is gigantic compared to various inserts and parallels nowadays, but all is not as it seems.

In spite of the print run for each Elite card being able to completely fill two monster boxes, they are quite valuable, and nearly impossible to pull.

It is estimated that Elite card fell one every 75 boxes. Let's break it down even further, because this is where it gets fun. This means that one would have to open 2,700 packs to find an Elite card. To drill down further, if you wanted a specific player, it could potentially take you 21,600 packs. If you were to go hunting to pull a specific player in the 1991 Donruss Elite set and opened a pack a day, it might take you nearly 60 years!

And honestly, probably a lot longer than that.

The internet is rife with early 90s anecdotal stories of how dealers and collectors alike would sniff out boxes & cases with a high probability of holding one of these gems. If a warehouse held 50 cases of '91 Donruss, meaning you have a good shot of there being about 13 or so Elites in them. Now, get some dealers in there to poke around, and after rummaging around a bit, you may be left with 49 cases worth of cards with little to no chance at pulling an Elite!

Given the fact that 1991 Donruss Elite cards are seen as the beginning of the insert craze, they hold a very important place in the hobby. But guess what? They may not even be the rarest 91 Donruss cards.

Enter: 1991 Donruss Preview

The Preview set consisted of 12 cards, and were sent out to dealers as samples. No production numbers are known, but they are significantly rarer than their mainline counterparts. Here is a bit of a comparison of a PSA POP report for regular donruss, elite, and donruss previews:

TOTAL # of PSA GRADED 1991 DONRUSS CARDS (Jose Canseco)

Donruss All Star: 118
Donruss Regular: 71
Donruss Elite: 189
Donruss Preview: 10

It is understandable that the base cards and Elites would have similar (or in this case the same) numbers - surely more people would want their Elite cards graded instead of a base card, but look a the Previews. Just 10 graded. They are probably the best kept secrets of 1991 Donruss, and you couldn't even pull them from packs.

The funny thing is, I didn't even know about them until I came back to the hobby - and - it probably took 10 years more to come to the realization that my desire as a child in having a 91 Donruss blue bordered flagship Canseco as a child was fulfilled, thanks to the Donruss Preview (although a completely different picture was used.)

Would I recommend busting a box of '91 Donruss? Sure! You will likely not pull anything big, but given the nostalgia I feel with them, opening some packs could transport me to that magical time as a 10 year old in the back of mom & dad's car at the Christmas tree farm in 1990.

[PuddleMonkey]

I'd rather have these than some of the newer stuff coming out now days.

[mouschi]

Originally Posted by PuddleMonkey

I'd rather have these than some of the newer stuff coming out now days.

Agreed - for us player collectors who are rabid about collecting guys who haven't played in forever ... there is something special about cards from their playing days.

[Dacubs2]

I had pulled a 1991 Donruss Elite Signature Series of Ryne Sandberg in the mid 2000's, think it was 2004 from 30 packs from the dollar store

[mouschi]

Originally Posted by Dacubs2

I had pulled a 1991 Donruss Elite Signature Series of Ryne Sandberg in the mid 2000's, think it was 2004 from 30 packs from the dollar store

YOWZA - now that's a hit. Weren't those #/5000?

[ReggieBush22]

Something doesn't add up with the Elite along with the 1990 Pro Set Lombardi Trophy. Both with stated runs of 10,000 but the number in existence is far, far shorter. Not sure what's going on. Are most still in wax boxes (doubt it)?

But yeah, definitely cool cards.

[mouschi]

Originally Posted by ReggieBush22

Something doesn't add up with the Elite along with the 1990 Pro Set Lombardi Trophy. Both with stated runs of 10,000 but the number in existence is far, far shorter. Not sure what's going on. Are most still in wax boxes (doubt it)?

But yeah, definitely cool cards.

A few things come into play here. Product nowadays is opened so fast thanks to breakers, so hits can be had within days of a release. Also, the print runs are so wildly different. Finding a /5 card in a new release would be like finding a penny in a pant pocket in your wardrobe. A /10,000 Elite is like finding one of 10,000 different colored grains of sand dispersed throughout all the beaches in the world .... including the sand underwater!

There is a ton of unopened stuff out there, too. Ebay shows about 1,000 boxes have sold in the past 3 years, but that probably doesn't touch all the storage lockers with untold #s of cases.

[PuddleMonkey]

Imagine paying storage fees to hoard cases of 1991 Donruss.

[PuddleMonkey]

Card collectors are dumb so I'm sure it's happening.

[ReggieBush22]

Originally Posted by mouschi

A few things come into play here. Product nowadays is opened so fast thanks to breakers, so hits can be had within days of a release. Also, the print runs are so wildly different. Finding a /5 card in a new release would be like finding a penny in a pant pocket in your wardrobe. A /10,000 Elite is like finding one of 10,000 different colored grains of sand dispersed throughout all the beaches in the world .... including the sand underwater!

There is a ton of unopened stuff out there, too. Ebay shows about 1,000 boxes have sold in the past 3 years, but that probably doesn't touch all the storage lockers with untold #s of cases.

There sure are a lot of wax boxes listed on Ebay for about $20-25. LOL. Near the peak of the junk wax era.

So you think it's just that simple? Remainder still in unopened wax boxes and nothing more? Like maybe a good chunk was never inserted in boxes due to bad sales?

[mouschi]

Originally Posted by ReggieBush22

There sure are a lot of wax boxes listed on Ebay for about $20-25. LOL. Near the peak of the junk wax era.

So you think it's just that simple? Remainder still in unopened wax boxes and nothing more? Like maybe a good chunk was never inserted in boxes due to bad sales?

I do think several are unopened, but I also think the numbers that come up are appropriate given the age, desirability, and production numbers. In the past 3 years, nearly 200 Cansecos have been sold via ebay. If only 10, I'd probably be suspicious, but no, I don't think anything fishy. Then again, who knows? They were doing crazy stuff back then (re: 89 UD Griffey!)

[Dacubs2]

Originally Posted by mouschi

YOWZA - now that's a hit. Weren't those #/5000?

yes...#/5000

[PuddleMonkey]

Not proud of it but I have some sealed '91 Donruss.

[ReggieBush22]

Originally Posted by mouschi

I do think several are unopened, but I also think the numbers that come up are appropriate given the age, desirability, and production numbers. In the past 3 years, nearly 200 Cansecos have been sold via ebay. If only 10, I'd probably be suspicious, but no, I don't think anything fishy. Then again, who knows? They were doing crazy stuff back then (re: 89 UD Griffey!)

Care to elaborate about the part in bold?

[mouschi]

Originally Posted by PuddleMonkey

Not proud of it but I have some sealed '91 Donruss.

I do too! It is a must. Also, you need a 90 Donruss wax box on the top of your fridge ala Seinfeld

Originally Posted by ReggieBush22

Care to elaborate about the part in bold?

Ahhh my memory is failing me, but IIRC, a book that came out years ago talked about how they printed tons of extra sheets of Griffey alone to keep up with demand of it.

[jdandns]

Good stuff.

I opened up plenty of those early 90's Donruss boxes. The only Elite I ever pulled was an Eddie Murray, I think from the 1993 series, from a reduced price box I bought in the mid 90's at a Pic 'N Save (later BigLots!, now gone). I still have it.

[chilly55]

Not sure how many Donruss boxes I've opened for those Elites, but only ever pulled 1 Elite from 1991-1993 (a 1993 Edgar Martinez).

I also agree with you that the Previews are much much rarer, but don't get the Hobby love it should.
I came across a Jeweler that happened to be selling a friends collection some 10+ years ago. I bought the collection which was a treasure trove of 1987-1995 inserts. About 80% of it was the regular low end stuff, but among the collection was a lot of preview/promo cards including a bunch of 1988 UD promo's (Joyners and Buices) and roughly 20 of the 1991 Donruss Previews cards which I still have a bunch.

The promo's in that collection were more exciting to me than the inserts which did include some early refractors/artists proofs etc.

Anyway, still have these from that collection.

[Jaypers]

I busted 37 cases of this specifically to chase Elites. Not one pulled. If only eBay existed back then, I could have saved money and bought singles.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by Jaypers

I busted 37 cases of this specifically to chase Elites. Not one pulled. If only eBay existed back then, I could have saved money and bought singles.

Cases? Or boxes? If it's 37 cases, you have the worst luck on the planet. They should fall one every 3 to 4 cases (which seems about right given what I've seen opened).

[mouschi]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

Cases? Or boxes? If it's 37 cases, you have the worst luck on the planet. They should fall one every 3 to 4 cases (which seems about right given what I've seen opened).

I can easily see how it could be cases if some of the stories I've heard over the years are true - that people figured out which were the "hot" cases. They could've taken those out of circulation, and left the cold cases out for sale.

[Jaypers]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

Cases? Or boxes? If it's 37 cases, you have the worst luck on the planet. They should fall one every 3 to 4 cases (which seems about right given what I've seen opened).

Cases. And yes, I certainly do. I don't believe I've ever hit a card worth $100 or more since I first started cracking wax, back in '87. I finally stopped busting altogether a couple of years ago.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by mouschi

I can easily see how it could be cases if some of the stories I've heard over the years are true - that people figured out which were the "hot" cases. They could've taken those out of circulation, and left the cold cases out for sale.

I'd be interested to know what was the indication of a "hot" case. I've heard stories of metal detectors and other methods to try to find the Elites, but they have all been debunked. Are you aware of other methods for finding which cases have Elites that was actually true? Every Elite hunt I've seen has always yielded the expected Elites at a rate around 1:75 boxes.

[mouschi]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

I'd be interested to know what was the indication of a "hot" case. I've heard stories of metal detectors and other methods to try to find the Elites, but they have all been debunked. Are you aware of other methods for finding which cases have Elites that was actually true? Every Elite hunt I've seen has always yielded the expected Elites at a rate around 1:75 boxes.

I really don't have any verifiable evidence to present, aside from just various stories I've heard, many of which I'm sure I forgot. I do recall someone pulling a ton at a KB Toy Store back in the day ... when I looked it up again, it turned out it was on this very site and they were actually talking about 1992 Donruss.

For all I know, there is no real way for anyone to have determined it, I'm not sure. In any event, the insane amount of boxes to open to get one was/is crazy! But ... I seem to recall 2000 UD Game Jersey patches falling at 1 per 10,000 packs ... that's like 4x the packs it'd take for a 91 Elite to be pulled!

[DioBrando]

Originally Posted by ReggieBush22

Something doesn't add up with the Elite along with the 1990 Pro Set Lombardi Trophy. Both with stated runs of 10,000 but the number in existence is far, far shorter. Not sure what's going on. Are most still in wax boxes (doubt it)?

But yeah, definitely cool cards.

Lots sitting in unopened wax and lots that have been pulled and long since forgotten about, sitting collecting dust in the back of closets. I'd imagine a decent amount have been destroyed due to fire/flood/thrown out too

[SaveMeTheGum]

Originally Posted by ReggieBush22

Something doesn't add up with the Elite along with the 1990 Pro Set Lombardi Trophy. Both with stated runs of 10,000 but the number in existence is far, far shorter. Not sure what's going on. Are most still in wax boxes (doubt it)?

But yeah, definitely cool cards.

There is SO much unopened junk wax still out there it would blow your mind. There's probably more 1991 Donruss unopened wax boxes out there than there is all 2024 unopened wax combined. I've seen 20x20 storage units stacked floor to ceiling with unopened 1990-1991 wax. And that doesn't even count stuff thrown out/destroyed.