Who Has a Better Chance to Break Bonds' HR Records: Ohtani or Judge?

[asymmetricalbet]

I've been debating this with a friend. He says Ohtani. I say it is basically even. Judge is about two years older. Two years and two months really. There is a 91 HR difference between them right now. If we stop Judge's clock right now, that gives Ohtani 2 years and 2 months to pull ahead of Judge. Seems pretty likely. Although Ohtani, outside of last year has never hit more than 46 dingers in a season (this year he is on pace for 50+ again). Last year he didn't pitch. If he keeps pitching though, do we think he reverts down to the numbers he put up prior to last year? I dunno but in any case let's just say Ohtani ends up 20ish homers ahead of Judge at the exact same age. That is not really that big of a difference in the big scheme of things although I know if we are talking about just barely passing Bonds' numbers that each one feels more significant.

Now the real big question is more can both of these guys post 30 manage to avoid the fate of Griffey, Trout and Pujols after they turned that age? On this front, I feel more confident about Judge, not because Ohtani can't but Judge is 33 and already doing it so it seems more certain he will continue to do so. Ohtani is right about the age where Pujols really tailed off so it is yet to be seen. The other thing is both of these guys have had injury issues in their career. Can they avoid injuries during the back half of their career?

The last thing I wonder about is the real improvement in sports medicine. If you are really dedicated and committed to nutrition and training, I think these guys could go a bit longer than guys used to go which will help.

All in all I think they each have a 15-20% of breaking Bonds' total career HR record. I don't see Ohtani breaking Bonds' single season record but I think it could be possible for Judge.

What do you guys think?

[Bosoxfan5990]

Neither.

[asymmetricalbet]

Originally Posted by Bosoxfan5990

Neither.

Yeah to be honest I think my 15-20% was on the generous side.

[Imnottheonly]

I don’t think either of them has a chance. Ohtani would need to essentially hit 50 homeruns a year for the next decade to get there, Judge would need to hit 50+ for the next 8 years. So they are essentially at the same point when you consider their ages of needing to consistently hit 50 a year to the age of 40 without any setbacks for injury or decline.

If I had to choose I’d pick Ohtani simply believing that if he stops pitching that his body will age better. But I don’t think either one gets close.

[dantheman514]

The better question may be, will either of these guys even get close to 600?

[Richm]

Originally Posted by dantheman514

The better question may be, will either of these guys even get close to 600?

Probably Ohtani, I just think hes a better hitter at this point then Judge plus playing in Denver every year will probably help him.

[livfreely]

I think Soto is the only one that has a real chance (if 26 is his real age ).


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[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Neither will sniff 700 and that’s okay.

[TimBuckTwo]

Bonds was roided out and sullied our great national pastime.

Hank will always be the man !

[awz50]

Neither. Less then a 1% chance

[ThoseBackPages]

i dont think either will, but i am here for it!

[SleepyWill]

Their both 30+

Baby steps, lets just focus on getting to 500 first.

[marl1220]

Originally Posted by Richm

Probably Ohtani, I just think hes a better hitter at this point then Judge plus playing in Denver every year will probably help him.

[towerymt]

763? Nope.

Judge could pop a couple more 60+ homer seasons, average 50 hr / year through the rest of his 30s, and be around 660'ish.

Age 40-onward to club another 100 HR. Good luck!

The last old guy I see hitting 40+ in a season was Nelson Cruz in 2019. Age 38 season. Judge needs to be hitting 50 then. Then still hit 30-40 a year for ~3 years into his 40s.

Zero chance all things happen to get Judge to over 760 home runs.

[ReggieBush22]

The math doesn't add up, both started too late. Better question is can they possibly reach 600.

[ReggieBush22]

Originally Posted by TimBuckTwo

Bonds was roided out and sullied our great national pastime.

Hank will always be the man !

500/500 guy before steroids. Would've easily eclipsed 600 HR clean too. Nice try.

[towerymt]

74? Could happen.

2022 expected HR in Cincy & Colorado -- 71

2024 expected HR in Cincy 73 (Colorado down at 61, possibly the taller wall...was that in right center? Judge oppo not going out as easily in Colorado, if I have that right)

73 expected tells me that a MLB change to the ball could be enough to push out a few more HR, even for Judge.

But still unlikely.

[SleepyWill]

6'8 260LB+ individuals don't tend to age gracefully.

Realistically, Judge will at this level for 2-3 more years.

[clocsta2323]

If they start juicing probably have a better shot just like Bonds probably had a better shot at Aaron's record when he started juicing

[boxbuster7]

Neither have any shot imo

[SaveMeTheGum]

The big dumper?

[mfw13]

Neither will break 700.....

[PLB9eight]

Originally Posted by TimBuckTwo

Bonds was roided out and sullied our great national pastime.

Hank will always be the man !

The pastime was a willing and knowing facilitator of the sullying. Bonds just played the game they allowed.


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[chilly55]

Originally Posted by ReggieBush22

500/500 guy before steroids. Would've easily eclipsed 600 HR clean too. Nice try.

He was roided before 500 HR's. His 1999 cards show him a bit beefier than he was on his 1998's. Bonds has been linked, and verified, to be in contact with Greg Anderson in 1998. In 1998, he also replaced his trainer, Raymond Farris, with Greg Anderson. This is all part of the BALCO investigation.

So he wasn't a clean 500/500 guy. In fact, he didn't have 500 SB's until 2004. Had he stayed clean, he definitely would have been a 600 HR guy, easily in my opinion. I doubt he would have hit 700 clean, but we will never know.

As far as Judge, he's a got a great shot at 600 HR's, but like most opinions on here, won't see 700. Shohei will be the same. I think both players have a great shot at joining the 600HR club. Both first ballot HOF'ers!

[OhioLawyerF5]

Yes, it was bulking up through enhanced means that sullied baseball. LOL There has certainly not been any other things that sullied this sport before Bonds and company decided to hit more homers. :rollseyes: