How to decipher this eBay phenomenon? (Jaylen Brown ex.)

Nomad · 06-03-2024, 11:41 AM

Through the years of sniping quality Nesmith off the web, I have become conversant in reading between the eBay lines. How do you decipher these sales, which were heavily bid and all in the same range.

Is it an example of Trae-like shill scenario, with multiple collaborators trying to set a baseline for one of Jaylen's premier cards and never paying?

Or is it a really liquid card that lots people want to quick flip, with a potential Boston ring payoff? I know there are certain cards, like specific exquisite Bron patches, that reappear in high end auctions on the reg.

We can definitely probably say that the card did have one best offer sale in March for a few thou, but I know that's not what would be quoted if I tried to buy it now.

ninjabum87 · 06-03-2024, 12:37 PM

Topstox, Murazond, and Tullworld/Tull are all basically the Shillstein (formerly known as Probstein) consigners of China except way more blatant with a ton of relists. You basically take any sale of theirs with a grain of salt. The consignees basically bid up to their unofficial hidden reserve if they don't want it to sell below that. Rarely do the sales ever actually convert to paid sales you will see in the terapeak data.

I got outbid on one of their auctions a while ago that "sold" for almost 500 dollars. It got relisted and I wound up winning the next time for around 300 lol. Just depends on who owns the card and sent it to them for consignment.

Nomad · 06-03-2024, 12:50 PM

Since eBay is now getting involved in authentication and all the rest, and it's in their interest to have a transparent marketplace, are you telling me their AI is still not good enough to detect what the human eye can in a second?

jcardstore · 06-03-2024, 01:49 PM

Shilling and non-pay.

Not super complicated

jcardstore · 06-03-2024, 01:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nomad

Since eBay is now getting involved in authentication and all the rest, and it's in their interest to have a transparent marketplace, are you telling me their AI is still not good enough to detect what the human eye can in a second?

Sure it could detect it but what incentive does ebay have to stop it?

Nomad · 06-03-2024, 02:01 PM

The card is unlikely to be actually sold if people can't get a baseline price, or worse, suspect it's rigged. Doesn't the company make its money as a percentage of sales?

If it's not just one card, isn't that what clogged up the high end part of the hobby? Do similar, easily identifiable, things happen in other collectibles categories?

jcardstore · 06-03-2024, 02:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nomad

The card is unlikely to be actually sold if people can't get a baseline price, or worse, suspect it's rigged. Doesn't the company make its money as a percentage of sales?

If it's not just one card, isn't that what clogged up the high end part of the hobby? Do similar, easily identifiable, things happen in other collectibles categories?

That's not true.

It only takes 1 sucker. Or someone is trying to set a baseline to sell some other, similar cards.

The Accountant · 06-03-2024, 02:19 PM

Yeah I stay away from Murazond and Tullworld/Tull. Adding Topstox to my list too. The items get relisted within minutes of ending... on repeat. Realized this through disney chrome and embiid autos they keep cycling through.

Beavers98 · 06-03-2024, 03:03 PM

Yeah those sellers are all pretty shady on the shilling. I have bid on things multiple times
then relist reslist etc) before I just said screw it and moved on.

bmf · 06-03-2024, 03:07 PM

Very funny to see this particular card shown. I had interest in this very card until looking at completed auctions. It killed my interest and I moved on.

Nomad · 06-03-2024, 03:32 PM

Maybe we should have a permanent thread for high end cards that are basically no buy until they move to another owner.

Funny thing is, a card like this could well be worth more than $8k after NBA finals but it would take a brave buyer to move on it.

90skid · 06-03-2024, 03:57 PM

I don't understand what's going on with eBay. Just recently I tried bidding on an auction (card) and was presented with the automatic payment, with it clearly telling me that if I win the auction with my bid I'm placing right now, I will automatically get charged 1 hour after the auction ends with the payment method I specified.

I thought wow cool this is finally taking effect for everyone, but I've bid on items since that and the automatic payment setup has never prompted me again. Why a one time random thing? Just turn it on for EVERYONE!

1980bust · 06-03-2024, 06:57 PM

I'm a simple man - I see a Chinese listing, I know it's being shilled and it'll be listed again 2 days later by one of the big Chinese sellers.

Ericc5Bears · 06-03-2024, 10:15 PM

Ebay would be so much better if they only allowed sellers from North America, Europe, and Australia. It really can't be understated how much shady #@#@#@#@ Asia (mainly China and Japan) sellers do. The ironic thing is Asia ebay buyers are by far the best.

TheGoatOfLife · 06-03-2024, 10:24 PM

I only bid on shrimp fried rice from Chinese sellers!

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

pokemaniac · 06-04-2024, 01:32 AM

China cooking up the next shilldemic.

Exquisite074 · 06-04-2024, 02:26 AM

If it didn't work they wouldn't do it, so yes, most likely some fake sells in there to snag yet another one...!

Like mentioned above, lots of fake auctions and shilling still going on that eBay not only ignores, but encourages! And it works - here is an example of someone who has bid on 305 items - All from only ONE seller (Tull_068). It worked, because the card ended for under $400 to the shiller but was quickly relisted and sold for over $600 a week later:

Gem10collection · 06-09-2024, 08:19 PM

Annnnd its back!!

Its funny, at one point they had the card listed in auction on ebay and cardhobby at the same time lol

Nomad · 06-10-2024, 08:10 AM

I saw somewhere that eBay announced it is gonna tackle the shill epidemic by requiring an authorization of payment in advance? Does that work. Seems that you could still somehow get out of a purchase.

ninjabum87 · 06-10-2024, 11:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nomad

I saw somewhere that eBay announced it is gonna tackle the shill epidemic by requiring an authorization of payment in advance? Does that work. Seems that you could still somehow get out of a purchase.

I imagine you could still get out of it and it just adds an extra step. They'd need to likely require some sort of non-refundable escrow deposit that can't come from a credit card that gets penalized if you cancel without a return involved.

It isn't just Chinese sellers or Probstein either.

Look at this amusing bid history on these two identical items from different sellers. The same two bidders making the same or very similar bids at a minute or so apart on two different auctions-

https://www.ebay.com/itm/156247528557

https://www.ebay.com/itm/166812041575

Guessing someone else pulled the card and want it to end high for when they list theirs?

Nomad · 06-10-2024, 04:17 PM

Investorboi-gone-bad conversation: "Nice looking card. Imma high end it."

ninjabum87 · 06-12-2024, 11:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ninjabum87

I imagine you could still get out of it and it just adds an extra step. They'd need to likely require some sort of non-refundable escrow deposit that can't come from a credit card that gets penalized if you cancel without a return involved.

It isn't just Chinese sellers or Probstein either.

Look at this amusing bid history on these two identical items from different sellers. The same two bidders making the same or very similar bids at a minute or so apart on two different auctions-

https://www.ebay.com/itm/156247528557

https://www.ebay.com/itm/166812041575

Guessing someone else pulled the card and want it to end high for when they list theirs?

Lol I think I know who was shilling these other two...zero feedback account listing their own with starting bid just slightly under what they shilled the other two up to perhaps?

https://www.ebay.com/itm/405033132710

GuacamoleCards · 10-11-2024, 09:54 PM

Glad I finally found this thread... same thing is going on right now with Wemby Optic Red Glitter card 22/75 specifically. I was the second highest bidder one time as it sold for $255 (which would have been a steal) and I was kicking myself for not researching and putting in a real bid... then I later realized it wouldn't have mattered because these are just shilled to some hidden reserve.

I reported this to eBay, knowing they don't care... but maybe they'll eventually realize that their customers aren't stupid and see this going on.

06-03-2024, 11:41 AM	#1
Nomad Member Join Date: Jul 2021 Location: Fomenting FOMO on the down low. Posts: 7,873	How to decipher this eBay phenomenon? (Jaylen Brown ex.) Through the years of sniping quality Nesmith off the web, I have become conversant in reading between the eBay lines. How do you decipher these sales, which were heavily bid and all in the same range. Is it an example of Trae-like shill scenario, with multiple collaborators trying to set a baseline for one of Jaylen's premier cards and never paying? Or is it a really liquid card that lots people want to quick flip, with a potential Boston ring payoff? I know there are certain cards, like specific exquisite Bron patches, that reappear in high end auctions on the reg. We can definitely probably say that the card did have one best offer sale in March for a few thou, but I know that's not what would be quoted if I tried to buy it now. __________________ Fomenting FOMO on the down low. Last edited by Nomad; 06-03-2024 at 11:51 AM.

06-03-2024, 12:37 PM	#2
ninjabum87 Member Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 2,209	Topstox, Murazond, and Tullworld/Tull are all basically the Shillstein (formerly known as Probstein) consigners of China except way more blatant with a ton of relists. You basically take any sale of theirs with a grain of salt. The consignees basically bid up to their unofficial hidden reserve if they don't want it to sell below that. Rarely do the sales ever actually convert to paid sales you will see in the terapeak data. I got outbid on one of their auctions a while ago that "sold" for almost 500 dollars. It got relisted and I wound up winning the next time for around 300 lol. Just depends on who owns the card and sent it to them for consignment. Last edited by ninjabum87; 06-03-2024 at 12:39 PM.

06-03-2024, 12:50 PM	#3
Nomad Member Join Date: Jul 2021 Location: Fomenting FOMO on the down low. Posts: 7,873	Since eBay is now getting involved in authentication and all the rest, and it's in their interest to have a transparent marketplace, are you telling me their AI is still not good enough to detect what the human eye can in a second? __________________ Fomenting FOMO on the down low.

06-03-2024, 01:49 PM	#4
jcardstore Member Join Date: Mar 2014 Posts: 21,634 Jcardstore	Shilling and non-pay. Not super complicated __________________ Just moonwalking through hell on my last brain cell

06-03-2024, 02:01 PM	#6
Nomad Member Join Date: Jul 2021 Location: Fomenting FOMO on the down low. Posts: 7,873	The card is unlikely to be actually sold if people can't get a baseline price, or worse, suspect it's rigged. Doesn't the company make its money as a percentage of sales? If it's not just one card, isn't that what clogged up the high end part of the hobby? Do similar, easily identifiable, things happen in other collectibles categories? __________________ Fomenting FOMO on the down low. Last edited by Nomad; 06-03-2024 at 02:03 PM.

06-03-2024, 02:19 PM	#8
The Accountant Member Join Date: Mar 2016 Location: Pittsburgh Posts: 12,905	Yeah I stay away from Murazond and Tullworld/Tull. Adding Topstox to my list too. The items get relisted within minutes of ending... on repeat. Realized this through disney chrome and embiid autos they keep cycling through. __________________ Buying: Cole Hamels 1/1s

06-03-2024, 03:03 PM	#9
Beavers98 Member Join Date: Mar 2011 Location: Ames, IA Posts: 10,995 beavers98	Yeah those sellers are all pretty shady on the shilling. I have bid on things multiple times then relist reslist etc) before I just said screw it and moved on.

06-03-2024, 03:07 PM	#10
bmf Member Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 3,190	Very funny to see this particular card shown. I had interest in this very card until looking at completed auctions. It killed my interest and I moved on.

06-03-2024, 03:32 PM	#11
Nomad Member Join Date: Jul 2021 Location: Fomenting FOMO on the down low. Posts: 7,873	Maybe we should have a permanent thread for high end cards that are basically no buy until they move to another owner. Funny thing is, a card like this could well be worth more than $8k after NBA finals but it would take a brave buyer to move on it. __________________ Fomenting FOMO on the down low.

06-03-2024, 03:57 PM	#12
90skid Member Join Date: Jul 2020 Posts: 1,781	I don't understand what's going on with eBay. Just recently I tried bidding on an auction (card) and was presented with the automatic payment, with it clearly telling me that if I win the auction with my bid I'm placing right now, I will automatically get charged 1 hour after the auction ends with the payment method I specified. I thought wow cool this is finally taking effect for everyone, but I've bid on items since that and the automatic payment setup has never prompted me again. Why a one time random thing? Just turn it on for EVERYONE!

06-03-2024, 06:57 PM	#13
1980bust Member Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 605	I'm a simple man - I see a Chinese listing, I know it's being shilled and it'll be listed again 2 days later by one of the big Chinese sellers.

06-03-2024, 10:15 PM	#14
Ericc5Bears Member Join Date: Aug 2020 Posts: 1,229	Ebay would be so much better if they only allowed sellers from North America, Europe, and Australia. It really can't be understated how much shady #@#@#@#@ Asia (mainly China and Japan) sellers do. The ironic thing is Asia ebay buyers are by far the best.

06-03-2024, 10:24 PM	#15
TheGoatOfLife Member Join Date: Dec 2023 Posts: 539	I only bid on shrimp fried rice from Chinese sellers! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

06-04-2024, 01:32 AM	#16
pokemaniac Member Join Date: Jan 2020 Posts: 984	China cooking up the next shilldemic.

06-04-2024, 02:26 AM	#17
Exquisite074 Member Join Date: Jun 2015 Location: California Posts: 383 IversonExquisite IversonExquisite	If it didn't work they wouldn't do it, so yes, most likely some fake sells in there to snag yet another one...! Like mentioned above, lots of fake auctions and shilling still going on that eBay not only ignores, but encourages! And it works - here is an example of someone who has bid on 305 items - All from only ONE seller (Tull_068). It worked, because the card ended for under $400 to the shiller but was quickly relisted and sold for over $600 a week later:

06-09-2024, 08:19 PM	#18
Gem10collection Member Join Date: Feb 2019 Posts: 764	Annnnd its back!! Its funny, at one point they had the card listed in auction on ebay and cardhobby at the same time lol

06-10-2024, 08:10 AM	#19
Nomad Member Join Date: Jul 2021 Location: Fomenting FOMO on the down low. Posts: 7,873	I saw somewhere that eBay announced it is gonna tackle the shill epidemic by requiring an authorization of payment in advance? Does that work. Seems that you could still somehow get out of a purchase. __________________ Fomenting FOMO on the down low.

06-10-2024, 04:17 PM	#21
Nomad Member Join Date: Jul 2021 Location: Fomenting FOMO on the down low. Posts: 7,873	Investorboi-gone-bad conversation: "Nice looking card. Imma high end it." __________________ Fomenting FOMO on the down low.

10-11-2024, 09:54 PM	#23
GuacamoleCards Member Join Date: Aug 2024 Posts: 186 guacamolecards	Glad I finally found this thread... same thing is going on right now with Wemby Optic Red Glitter card 22/75 specifically. I was the second highest bidder one time as it sold for $255 (which would have been a steal) and I was kicking myself for not researching and putting in a real bid... then I later realized it wouldn't have mattered because these are just shilled to some hidden reserve. I reported this to eBay, knowing they don't care... but maybe they'll eventually realize that their customers aren't stupid and see this going on.