Can PSA 9 value increase more than PSA 10s?

Neal · 07-20-2020, 01:50 PM

The market seems to be red hot for everything PSA 10 graded, but I have not been following the PSA 9 market. Are these moving as fast?

In my opinion and experience, nearly every card from 2010 on up, if handled properly should grade at least a PSA 9 straight from the pack. The majority of cards that I have submitted in recent years were from 2018 across several different issues. The overwhelming grade was a PSA 10. About 75% of the time.

I have also submitted approx. 100 or so cards from 1987-1989 (UD, Donruss, and Fleer) and these were also straight from the pack. I may have landed 4 tens, about 10 PSA 8s with the rest residing in PSA 9 slabs.

PSA 9s are minty cards with fantastic appeal and affordability and I believe that for certain players there is a lot of room to grow.

Thoughts?

asujbl · 07-20-2020, 02:00 PM

Nope.

Registry rules the world

Neal · 07-20-2020, 02:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by asujbl

Nope.

Registry rules the world

There are many buyers who don't use the registry and some that use it and do not care about the weighted GPA.

gmoney328 · 07-20-2020, 02:11 PM

Common sense dictates they won't ever be actually worth more per se....

Bigger percentage increase could certainly happen though, anything is possible.

Neal · 07-20-2020, 02:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gmoney328

Common sense dictates they won't ever be actually worth more per se....

Bigger percentage increase could certainly happen though, anything is possible.

Never will be worth more, but yes, I think the percentage increase on certain players is intriguiing

asujbl · 07-20-2020, 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Neal

There are many buyers who don't use the registry and some that use it and do not care about the weighted GPA.

Sure

Keep living that dream when comparing 9 to 10

dodgerfanjohn · 07-20-2020, 02:23 PM

PSA 9 1989 Upper Deck Ken Griffey Jt went from about $40 average in 2016 to around $180 shipped now.

4.5x

Anyone know what the 10 did?

Glebe · 07-20-2020, 02:24 PM

9 will never meet 10 in price. It can come maybe within 20% given the card, demand, and scarcity, but will never be same price.

asujbl · 07-20-2020, 02:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dodgerfanjohn

PSA 9 1989 Upper Deck Ken Griffey Jt went from about $40 average in 2016 to around $180 shipped now.

4.5x

Anyone know what the 10 did?

Are we just living that life % life? My bad if so... reading from my phone

Because it went from say $400 to $1,300

Rybrown12 · 07-20-2020, 02:29 PM

I’ve always wondered if PSA 10 is really that much better than a PSA 9. It seems to come down to the the most absolutely minuscule difference, which can all depend on the grader you get. It’s just tough to pay up for a 10 when 9’s look the exact same for the most part, at a fraction of the cost. But I get it, people want perfection.

ScooterMcRibs · 07-20-2020, 02:39 PM

Opinion of the market can change regarding gem mint vs mint premium. Currently it is where it is, could go either direction. IMHO high print runs tend to push premium to gem mint, grading scandals tend to push premium away.

Another thing to keep in mind is ancillary cost of buying / selling. An envelope and USPS postage costs the same whether there's a PSA 9 or PSA 10 card inside.

Cards and 401K · 07-20-2020, 02:53 PM

I have noticed the PSA9 for Tony Gwynn 1983 Topps #482 have risen considerable from a year ago averaging $66 per card to 2 completed this week @ $158 and $247 each

Neal · 07-20-2020, 04:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by asujbl

Sure

Keep living that dream when comparing 9 to 10

Huh

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Neal · 07-20-2020, 04:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ScooterMcRibs

Opinion of the market can change regarding gem mint vs mint premium. Currently it is where it is, could go either direction. IMHO high print runs tend to push premium to gem mint, grading scandals tend to push premium away.

Another thing to keep in mind is ancillary cost of buying / selling. An envelope and USPS postage costs the same whether there's a PSA 9 or PSA 10 card inside.

Good point

I love 10s but starting to see the value in PSA 9.

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coltsfan23 · 07-20-2020, 04:45 PM

As more people get priced out of PSA 10s on the higher-end, the demand for PSA 9s will increase appropriately. Will this cover the increased 'supply' out there? And crucially, does this increased price point dramatically lower demand on the PSA 10 versus supply?

Depends on the card.

Example: Mahomes Prizm Silver PSA 9 (last went $1,500) vs. PSA 10 (seem to be at $6k+). This is a case where PSA 9s could see a short-term % increase higher than the PSA 10...or maybe the spread continues to widen. Plenty of well-heeled buyers on the PSA 10s still could continue to push this higher, while people find relative value in the PSA 9s could grow that faster.

And it's also a question of scale. If people are actually looking to build investment positions, it's much easier to scale faster buying PSA 10 at quantity. It takes a heck of a lot of PSA 9s to get an actually decently-sized position.

Thunderdunk · 07-20-2020, 04:50 PM

I have been buying BGS 9 / PSA 9's hand over fist right now for Tiger Woods Rookies. (UD Base 1, SP Preview, Promos, etc)

cardsharkk · 07-20-2020, 05:06 PM

I see them rising right along with PSA 10s, around the same %

dodgerfanjohn · 07-20-2020, 05:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Glebe

9 will never meet 10 in price. It can come maybe within 20% given the card, demand, and scarcity, but will never be same price.

Doesn’t answer OP’s question.

ThoseBackPages · 07-20-2020, 05:41 PM

man, as someone that has been a FIne Nine fan going on 15 years now, the 9's market has NEVER been like this.

last week i think it was, i saw a Tatum 2017 Prizm PSA 9 sell for $220

dodgerfanjohn · 07-20-2020, 05:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by asujbl

Are we just living that life % life? My bad if so... reading from my phone

Because it went from say $400 to $1,300

Yes OP’s question was basically are PSA 9’s a better long term investment and do they have more room to grow.

$400 in Griffey PSA 9’s in 2016 would have yielded 10x 180 or $1800. Keep in mind I’m using current pricing, not the $200 high mark from a couple months ago.

However, this is just one data point from one particular card at one moment in time.

My answer is that I don’t have a clue. Just pointing out something for arguments sake.

cking · 07-20-2020, 05:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rybrown12

I’ve always wondered if PSA 10 is really that much better than a PSA 9. It seems to come down to the the most absolutely minuscule difference, which can all depend on the grader you get. It’s just tough to pay up for a 10 when 9’s look the exact same for the most part, at a fraction of the cost. But I get it, people want trimmed cards

Fixed it for you

Neal · 07-20-2020, 05:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Glebe

9 will never meet 10 in price. It can come maybe within 20% given the card, demand, and scarcity, but will never be same price.

This may be fault … perhaps my post wasn't clear. I'm not saying 9s will come close to a PSA 10 in terms of value, at least I didn't think I was inferring that. I'm asking if some 9's can rise in value at a higher rate than 10s.

The 1989 UD Griffey example was a good one. There once was a time when submitting a PSA 10 was unheard of, now they are everywhere - even from the late 80s junk wax era.

Neal · 07-20-2020, 05:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cardsharkk

I see them rising right along with PSA 10s, around the same %

Thanks
I have not been following PSA 9s so I appreciate the input.

jduds · 07-20-2020, 07:46 PM

I'd bet if you look at it it is likely not an issue of simply an issue of rising faster, but more of an issue of when the cards experience growth. Assuming modern cards where 10s and 9 are reasonably available initial jumps are likely to occur at the PSA 10 level first. With entry level prices low, people will target 10s first and these will see the biggest initial jumps. As these start to grow and they reach some resistance at moving to higher prices, then the 9s will start to play catch-up and see their rate of growth increase. This can be cyclical I bet. If you are looking for growth, it might not hurt to target wide gaps in 9s and 10s with slowing increases in 10 prices. Obviously you do have to be able to identify if the slowing 10 growth is simply resistance to moving higher or an indicator of a future decline.

pewe · 07-20-2020, 07:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jduds

I'd bet if you look at it it is likely not an issue of simply an issue of rising faster, but more of an issue of when the cards experience growth. Assuming modern cards where 10s and 9 are reasonably available initial jumps are likely to occur at the PSA 10 level first. With entry level prices low, people will target 10s forst. As these start to grow and they reach some resistance at moving to higher prices, then the 9s will start to play catch-up and see their rate of growth increase. This can be cyclical I bet. If you are looking for growth, it might not hurt to target wide gaps in 9s and 10s with slowing increases in 10 prices. Obviously you do have to be able to identify if the slowing 10 growth is simply resistance to moving higher or an indicator of a future decline.

Also it comes down to crossover rate of psa 9 to 10... arbitrage generally shrinks the gap over time. Same as BGS 9.5 true gem -> psa 10. There is a reason the pricing ratios were stable for a long time... lots of folks arbing the grading system... and it settled into some common bands.

That is a bit broken right now, which seems to suggest opportunity to make $$ off arbitrage on psa 9 and BGS 9.5.

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07-20-2020, 01:50 PM	#1
Neal Member Join Date: Mar 2017 Location: East Coast Posts: 2,831 1420sports	Can PSA 9 value increase more than PSA 10s? The market seems to be red hot for everything PSA 10 graded, but I have not been following the PSA 9 market. Are these moving as fast? In my opinion and experience, nearly every card from 2010 on up, if handled properly should grade at least a PSA 9 straight from the pack. The majority of cards that I have submitted in recent years were from 2018 across several different issues. The overwhelming grade was a PSA 10. About 75% of the time. I have also submitted approx. 100 or so cards from 1987-1989 (UD, Donruss, and Fleer) and these were also straight from the pack. I may have landed 4 tens, about 10 PSA 8s with the rest residing in PSA 9 slabs. PSA 9s are minty cards with fantastic appeal and affordability and I believe that for certain players there is a lot of room to grow. Thoughts? __________________ collecting vintage sports cards and Star Wars .... with a touch of modern and ultra modern

07-20-2020, 02:00 PM	#2
asujbl Member Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 62,174 ohiosundevils	Nope. Registry rules the world __________________ https://ohiosundevils.smugmug.com/ Browns/Cavs/Tribe/Buckeyes/Jackets/Devils TheFrenzy - “Blowout ain't a place for normies”

07-20-2020, 04:45 PM	#15
coltsfan23 Member Join Date: May 2009 Location: US Posts: 10,204 coltsfan23	As more people get priced out of PSA 10s on the higher-end, the demand for PSA 9s will increase appropriately. Will this cover the increased 'supply' out there? And crucially, does this increased price point dramatically lower demand on the PSA 10 versus supply? Depends on the card. Example: Mahomes Prizm Silver PSA 9 (last went $1,500) vs. PSA 10 (seem to be at $6k+). This is a case where PSA 9s could see a short-term % increase higher than the PSA 10...or maybe the spread continues to widen. Plenty of well-heeled buyers on the PSA 10s still could continue to push this higher, while people find relative value in the PSA 9s could grow that faster. And it's also a question of scale. If people are actually looking to build investment positions, it's much easier to scale faster buying PSA 10 at quantity. It takes a heck of a lot of PSA 9s to get an actually decently-sized position. Last edited by coltsfan23; 07-20-2020 at 04:47 PM.

07-20-2020, 05:41 PM	#19
ThoseBackPages Member Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: Long Island Posts: 88,988 ThoseBackPages	man, as someone that has been a FIne Nine fan going on 15 years now, the 9's market has NEVER been like this. last week i think it was, i saw a Tatum 2017 Prizm PSA 9 sell for $220 __________________ Pumpers Paradise #YouCryIBuy Four things that we cannot change each others minds about: Politics, Religion, Third Party Grading, and 2021 Bowman's Best Rookie Cards

07-20-2020, 07:46 PM	#24
jduds Member Join Date: May 2020 Location: Hattiesburg, MS Posts: 3,774 chilaw57	I'd bet if you look at it it is likely not an issue of simply an issue of rising faster, but more of an issue of when the cards experience growth. Assuming modern cards where 10s and 9 are reasonably available initial jumps are likely to occur at the PSA 10 level first. With entry level prices low, people will target 10s first and these will see the biggest initial jumps. As these start to grow and they reach some resistance at moving to higher prices, then the 9s will start to play catch-up and see their rate of growth increase. This can be cyclical I bet. If you are looking for growth, it might not hurt to target wide gaps in 9s and 10s with slowing increases in 10 prices. Obviously you do have to be able to identify if the slowing 10 growth is simply resistance to moving higher or an indicator of a future decline. Last edited by jduds; 07-20-2020 at 07:57 PM. Reason: typo

07-20-2020, 02:11 PM	#4
gmoney328 Member Join Date: Aug 2019 Location: Navarre, Florida Posts: 4,175	Common sense dictates they won't ever be actually worth more per se.... Bigger percentage increase could certainly happen though, anything is possible.

07-20-2020, 02:23 PM	#7
dodgerfanjohn Member Join Date: Jul 2015 Location: Torrance, CA Posts: 5,047 sternroolz	PSA 9 1989 Upper Deck Ken Griffey Jt went from about $40 average in 2016 to around $180 shipped now. 4.5x Anyone know what the 10 did?

07-20-2020, 02:24 PM	#8
Glebe Member Join Date: Jun 2019 Posts: 973	9 will never meet 10 in price. It can come maybe within 20% given the card, demand, and scarcity, but will never be same price.

07-20-2020, 02:29 PM	#10
Rybrown12 Member Join Date: Dec 2019 Location: Albany, NY Posts: 73	I’ve always wondered if PSA 10 is really that much better than a PSA 9. It seems to come down to the the most absolutely minuscule difference, which can all depend on the grader you get. It’s just tough to pay up for a 10 when 9’s look the exact same for the most part, at a fraction of the cost. But I get it, people want perfection.

07-20-2020, 02:39 PM	#11
ScooterMcRibs Member Join Date: Apr 2020 Location: BAY AREA, CA, USA Posts: 431 I'm not going to tell you. No.	Opinion of the market can change regarding gem mint vs mint premium. Currently it is where it is, could go either direction. IMHO high print runs tend to push premium to gem mint, grading scandals tend to push premium away. Another thing to keep in mind is ancillary cost of buying / selling. An envelope and USPS postage costs the same whether there's a PSA 9 or PSA 10 card inside.

07-20-2020, 02:53 PM	#12
Cards and 401K Member Join Date: Jul 2019 Location: DFW Texas Posts: 3,557	I have noticed the PSA9 for Tony Gwynn 1983 Topps #482 have risen considerable from a year ago averaging $66 per card to 2 completed this week @ $158 and $247 each

07-20-2020, 04:50 PM	#16
Thunderdunk Member Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 823	I have been buying BGS 9 / PSA 9's hand over fist right now for Tiger Woods Rookies. (UD Base 1, SP Preview, Promos, etc)

07-20-2020, 05:06 PM	#17
cardsharkk Member Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 3,578	I see them rising right along with PSA 10s, around the same %