WAR is Garbage

FreshOutThePack · 07-30-2021, 01:34 AM

I give you exhibit A:

Dave Parker -

1 MVP
5 more top-10 finishes (nearly 6)
Batted over .300 his first 13 seasons overall
Over 2,700 hits (90%+ of 3000 *Guaranteed HOF*)
Almost 1,500 RBI

Throw in big contributing roles on 2 WS winning teams.

And all of that is good for only 40 WAR?? Yeah ok, that makes sense. That is barely a little over halfway to the HOF in terms of average WAR for other RF that have been elected. Yet all of his other HOF statistics say he should be in. WAR tells very little while other stats tell so much more.

rwperu34 · 07-30-2021, 01:43 AM

What you're mistaking is what fans want (HOF) and what GM's want (Wins).

If you look at Parker's career overall you realize that he accrued 30 of those 40 WAR between 1975-1979 when he was an absolute beast. But from 1980-1991 he only accrued 7.7 WAR (4.7 of those in one season!), hit .275 with 18 HR and 80 RBI without much defensive value.

Also, Parker is not in the HOF.

JR42collector · 07-30-2021, 01:45 AM

WAR is not garbage. Dave Parker is.

PejaD · 07-30-2021, 02:04 AM

Was he one of those whose careers was derailed by the " Pepsi"?

FreshOutThePack · 07-30-2021, 02:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rwperu34

What you're mistaking is what fans want (HOF) and what GM's want (Wins).

If you look at Parker's career overall you realize that he accrued 30 of those 40 WAR between 1975-1979 when he was an absolute beast. But from 1980-1991 he only accrued 7.7 WAR (4.7 of those in one season!), hit .275 with 18 HR and 80 RBI without much defensive value.

Also, Parker is not in the HOF.

Who said he was in the HOF?

And the things you point out are exactly why it should not be a barometer for the HOF. 3 seasons of placing 5th, 11th, and 16th in MVP voting netted him virtually no WAR whatsoever.

And yeah I value defense for sure, but right field is right field. But that does bring me to exhibit B, which would be Omar Vizquel. Hands down the best defensive shortstop in the game for a decade plus and over 2,800 hits. Only a mere 46 WAR to be had. Nowhere close to the HOF average either.

premium1981 · 07-30-2021, 05:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JR42collector

WAR is not garbage. Dave Parker is.

Now that’s funny.

rngrdanny22 · 07-30-2021, 07:20 AM

If WAR isn't garbage, what is it good for?

banosd · 07-30-2021, 07:21 AM

I like WAR, it one number that gives you an idea of the complete picture. Like when they have low hitting stats but still have a positive WAR, it makes you think about their defense and other things.

oldgoldy97 · 07-30-2021, 07:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rngrdanny22

If WAR isn't garbage, what is it good for?

Absolutely nothing.

Stech36 · 07-30-2021, 07:34 AM

WAR helps us understand players value as a whole and in comparison to other players in the era, but it is not perfect.

That being said, maybe it’s because Dave Parker couldn’t field and was a slightly better than league average hitter the last 10 years of his career

Zauron · 07-30-2021, 07:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FreshOutThePack

Who said he was in the HOF?

And the things you point out are exactly why it should not be a barometer for the HOF. 3 seasons of placing 5th, 11th, and 16th in MVP voting netted him virtually no WAR whatsoever.

And yeah I value defense for sure, but right field is right field. But that does bring me to exhibit B, which would be Omar Vizquel. Hands down the best defensive shortstop in the game for a decade plus and over 2,800 hits. Only a mere 46 WAR to be had. Nowhere close to the HOF average either.

Dave Parker after Pittsburgh had a couple good years, but also was basically a league average outfielder. Actually, from 1980 on he had an OPS over .800 twice in his career. He didn't walk, had bad fielding. The reason why he had so many top MVP finishes was because people didn't know better. His 1986 season wasn't exactly that good but he finished 5th, probably because he had a ton of RBI's.

Omar Vizquel has a mediocre hitter, heck bad hitter, and his last 6 seasons where he stat padded he was virtually useless and provided no value.

erock28 · 07-30-2021, 08:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FreshOutThePack

Who said he was in the HOF?

And the things you point out are exactly why it should not be a barometer for the HOF. 3 seasons of placing 5th, 11th, and 16th in MVP voting netted him virtually no WAR whatsoever.

And yeah I value defense for sure, but right field is right field. But that does bring me to exhibit B, which would be Omar Vizquel. Hands down the best defensive shortstop in the game for a decade plus and over 2,800 hits. Only a mere 46 WAR to be had. Nowhere close to the HOF average either.

You are being very selective with your criteria of what defines a HOF worthy player. Yes, Vizquel was a great defensive shortstop and accumulated 2,800+ hits...but his career OPS+ was a whopping 82. Meaning he was almost 20% worse than the average hitter in the majors over that span. His glove kept him in the game until he was 45, which is why he logged all those hits. Like Parker, he wasn't a complete player...thus a "Hall of Very Good" candidate and not a true Hall of Famer. Which WAR conveniently helps to show.

Noles939913 · 07-30-2021, 08:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by banosd

I like WAR, it one number that gives you an idea of the complete picture. Like when they have low hitting stats but still have a positive WAR, it makes you think about their defense and other things.

This is the main problem I have with WAR. Beyond errors calculating defensive value has to be extremely shaky. For example everyone pretty much knows Marcell Ozuna played a below average LF even though he’s won a Gold Glove. Beyond using your eyeballs how exactly do you calculate if a league average LFer would have gotten to a ball in the gap that Ozuna couldn’t get to?

mouschi · 07-30-2021, 08:17 AM

Dalberov · 07-30-2021, 08:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oldgoldy97

Absolutely nothing.

Say it again.

Chrominator · 07-30-2021, 08:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mouschi

Robles Fan · 07-30-2021, 08:43 AM

I just wanted to add that it's kind of amusing to think that the following group of contemporaries of Parker would be considered "better" than him just based off of career WAR alone:

Carney Lansford: 40.4
Doug DeCinces: 41.7
Gary Gaetti: 42.1
Willie Wilson: 46.1
Fred Lynn: 50.2
Chet Lemon: 55.6

I specifically chose to include these particular players because they weren't as highly regarded as Parker when they were still active. And yet WAR tells a different story. I suppose it's up to debate whether or not you consider any of them to be better than him - which is to say, whether you agree with WAR or not based off this showing.

Chrominator · 07-30-2021, 08:46 AM

Project 2020 "The Cobra"

Hollywood42 · 07-30-2021, 08:49 AM

People are still trying to use a single stat to determine how good a player was and if that stat has any value?

rngrdanny22 · 07-30-2021, 08:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hollywood42

People are still trying to use a single stat to determine how good a player was and if that stat has any value?

Of course!

I bet if we had StatCast since the 80's, Tony Gwynn would be a bum because of launch angle and exit velocity.

Stech36 · 07-30-2021, 08:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Noles939913

This is the main problem I have with WAR. Beyond errors calculating defensive value has to be extremely shaky. For example everyone pretty much knows Marcell Ozuna played a below average LF even though he’s won a Gold Glove. Beyond using your eyeballs how exactly do you calculate if a league average LFer would have gotten to a ball in the gap that Ozuna couldn’t get to?

It is fairly accurate at this point with statcast implementation. But yes, for pre 2000’s, it’s not great. It’s based on things like putouts, which are fairly dependent on the team around you and the ballpark you played in.

cardsin47 · 07-30-2021, 09:00 AM

Since when did Dave Parker become the benchmark for whether a STAT is valid

k13 · 07-30-2021, 09:02 AM

Made up stat to make trout look good when he's average in the big scheme of things. If he was so valuable as WAR suggests his team would not be losing that much.

The whole thing is a joke.
Anyone can make up some metrics.

You can never calculate defense properly.

Stech36 · 07-30-2021, 09:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by k13

Made up stat to make trout look good when he's average in the big scheme of things. If he was so valuable as WAR suggests his team would not be losing that much.

The whole thing is a joke.
Anyone can make up some metrics.

You can never calculate defense properly.

So you think the eye is the best tool to evaluate defense?

PDCCollectibles · 07-30-2021, 09:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by k13

Made up stat to make trout look good when he's average in the big scheme of things. If he was so valuable as WAR suggests his team would not be losing that much.

The whole thing is a joke.
Anyone can make up some metrics.

You can never calculate defense properly.

Trout, average? He's over a .300 hitter with 300+ homeruns, 200+ stolen bases and over 1,400 hits...just to name a few. Odd comment...

07-30-2021, 01:34 AM	#1
FreshOutThePack Member Join Date: Jan 2020 Posts: 629	WAR is Garbage I give you exhibit A: Dave Parker - 1 MVP 5 more top-10 finishes (nearly 6) Batted over .300 his first 13 seasons overall Over 2,700 hits (90%+ of 3000 Guaranteed HOF) Almost 1,500 RBI Throw in big contributing roles on 2 WS winning teams. And all of that is good for only 40 WAR?? Yeah ok, that makes sense. That is barely a little over halfway to the HOF in terms of average WAR for other RF that have been elected. Yet all of his other HOF statistics say he should be in. WAR tells very little while other stats tell so much more.

07-30-2021, 01:43 AM	#2
rwperu34 Member Join Date: Feb 2017 Location: Tempe, AZ Posts: 8,276	What you're mistaking is what fans want (HOF) and what GM's want (Wins). If you look at Parker's career overall you realize that he accrued 30 of those 40 WAR between 1975-1979 when he was an absolute beast. But from 1980-1991 he only accrued 7.7 WAR (4.7 of those in one season!), hit .275 with 18 HR and 80 RBI without much defensive value. Also, Parker is not in the HOF. __________________ Me: Did I win? Gixen: Yes. You won. Now you're broke.

07-30-2021, 08:17 AM	#14
mouschi Member Join Date: May 2008 Location: Swimming in a million cards Posts: 9,647 tnhjones	__________________ Tanner Jones, Author of Confessions of a Baseball Card Addict

07-30-2021, 08:43 AM	#17
Robles Fan Member Join Date: Feb 2021 Location: Northern VA Posts: 723	I just wanted to add that it's kind of amusing to think that the following group of contemporaries of Parker would be considered "better" than him just based off of career WAR alone: Carney Lansford: 40.4 Doug DeCinces: 41.7 Gary Gaetti: 42.1 Willie Wilson: 46.1 Fred Lynn: 50.2 Chet Lemon: 55.6 I specifically chose to include these particular players because they weren't as highly regarded as Parker when they were still active. And yet WAR tells a different story. I suppose it's up to debate whether or not you consider any of them to be better than him - which is to say, whether you agree with WAR or not based off this showing. Last edited by Robles Fan; 07-30-2021 at 08:46 AM.

07-30-2021, 08:49 AM	#19
Hollywood42 Member Join Date: Mar 2013 Location: Minnesota Posts: 39,452 Hollywood42	People are still trying to use a single stat to determine how good a player was and if that stat has any value? __________________ Collecting the Twins All my PC wants/haves available at hollywood42cards.com

07-30-2021, 01:45 AM	#3
JR42collector Banned Join Date: Jun 2021 Posts: 116	WAR is not garbage. Dave Parker is.

07-30-2021, 02:04 AM	#4
PejaD Member Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 4,064	Was he one of those whose careers was derailed by the " Pepsi"?

07-30-2021, 07:20 AM	#7
rngrdanny22 Member Join Date: Jan 2015 Posts: 12,372	If WAR isn't garbage, what is it good for?

07-30-2021, 07:21 AM	#8
banosd Member Join Date: May 2018 Posts: 880 sweetleftyswing	I like WAR, it one number that gives you an idea of the complete picture. Like when they have low hitting stats but still have a positive WAR, it makes you think about their defense and other things.

07-30-2021, 07:34 AM	#10
Stech36 Member Join Date: Jan 2016 Location: Westminster, MD Posts: 9,537 Stech36	WAR helps us understand players value as a whole and in comparison to other players in the era, but it is not perfect. That being said, maybe it’s because Dave Parker couldn’t field and was a slightly better than league average hitter the last 10 years of his career

07-30-2021, 08:46 AM	#18
Chrominator Member Join Date: Oct 2012 Location: Earth-616 Posts: 4,944 Chrominator	Project 2020 "The Cobra"

07-30-2021, 09:00 AM	#22
cardsin47 Member Join Date: Sep 2020 Location: Westminster, MD Posts: 8,761 cardsin47	Since when did Dave Parker become the benchmark for whether a STAT is valid __________________ @cardsin47 is Steve Meyer ~ #WaxReturns! PC Gem Mint Factory Sealed 5-Sport Active Player RC & Prospect SCARCE Hobby/ HTA Jumbo/ Retail/ Blaster/ Mega Boxes! ~Trout! Soto! JROD! Wemby! Luka! Mahomes! McDavid! Bedard! Erling!~ Last edited by cardsin47; 07-30-2021 at 09:45 AM.

07-30-2021, 09:02 AM	#23
k13 Banned Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 12,617	Made up stat to make trout look good when he's average in the big scheme of things. If he was so valuable as WAR suggests his team would not be losing that much. The whole thing is a joke. Anyone can make up some metrics. You can never calculate defense properly.