Quote:
Originally Posted by tjforce
Totally disagree here:
Your league leader in passing yards per game this year is Herbert, who played his first game in Brazil.
He's at 286 yards per game, which would have ranked him 7th in 2015. If anything, a 3 game sample size should produce more extreme outliers than a 16 or 17 game season should. I'm willing to bet that nobody averages 286 yards per game over 15+ games this season.
As for small sample size, that's incorrect too. Here are league wide passing yards per game since 2015:
2025: 207
2024: 217
2023: 218
2022: 218
2021: 228
2020: 240
2019: 235
2018: 237
2017: 224
2016: 241
2015: 243
This is significant drop. The reasons for this:
Trend shift to more two high safety looks league wide to eliminate big plays. To counter this, offenses are making more short, safe throws (interceptions are also significantly down).
Vs 2015:
Passing attempts per game are 10% lower
Drives per game are 11% lower,
Which means time of possession per drive is significantly up
The game is constantly evolving, it always is. The current trend for the last 6-10 years has been a less dynamic, more methodical approach to offense.
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And I don't care to argue, to argue. I think this is an interesting conversation and I see your points. I'd also add that the beginning weeks of a season typically offenses struggle and are rusty, and score less. Generally.
I think we could say we're both right in terms of the variables. Again, two of your top teams and SB contenders in the league feature offenses that are predicated on the run - Eagles and Ravens.
Even the Bills run a lot. Allen is a runner. He can get you 1st downs and chunk plays and put it into the endzone for you via running. Hurts - obviously. Lamar - the best ever at QB to do this. So the literal top 3 favorites to win the SB have running QBs.
Mahomes has the ability to run. Guess what? I looked this up with a friend in fantasy. He leads the Chiefs in rushing yards. The variables and factors matter, the Chiefs run game sucks and the weapons kind suck now. The latter is the point I'm making for this situation. But overall, yeah I mean Herbert runs it, even Burrow can run a bit but might be you're purest passer next to Mahomes and he's hurt again.