I'll play along, I think the following guys have a strong shot at 500 HRs.
Giancarlo Stanton
Manny Machado
Bryce Harper
Aaron Judge
Shohei Ohtani
Juan Soto
50/50 chance
Mike Trout
Kyle Schwarber
Pete Alonso
25% chance
Eugenio Suarez
Vladimir Guerrero Jr
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