Quote:
Originally Posted by mfw13
Disagree.....
Stanton will be over 450 by the end of this season, and has two more years left on his contract, after which he'll still be only 38, with a net $15 million option for the 2028 season. I'd say his odds of making it are now around 70-80%.
Machado has eight years left on his Padres contract, so he only needs to average about 17 HR a year to make it. I'd place his odds also at around 70-80%.
And Trout will be over 400 by the end of this season, with five years left on his deal, during which he'd have to average about 20 HR a season. I'd put his odds at 50-60%.
Harper has six years left on his Phillies deal, during which he'd have to average about 23 HR a year.
Schwarber's fate is likely tied to how long his FA deal that he signs this offseason ends up being.....if it's 4 years or more, he'll almost certainly make it. If he only gets a short-term deal, then he becomes a much iffier proposition.
In fact, I'd say that there's a 20-30% chance that all six of them make the 500 HR club.
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No way they all make it. You are already down to 36% with your stated chances for Stanton, Machado, and Trout. My guess is one or two make it. We can check back in 2030 to see where things stand.