[Bob Ross]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

Some napkin math for your entertainment as the odds have been published.

300 base cards -- let's consider any red /5 a win and any 1/1 rose gold a win. Obviously most red veterans won't pull $100, but let's say they do, to off-set Shohei/Judge higher numbered cards:
1.6% of boxes have a winning base parallel

50 variations - consider any orange /25, black /10, red /5, rose 1/1 a win:
1.8% of boxes have a winning variation parallel

100 total inserts - let's consider any orange /25 or rarer a win. Judge/Shohei higher parallels will do better, but let's consider Seager/Lindor oranges players a wash:
3.6% of boxes have a winning insert parallel

Autographs:
65 card autograph, categorize 10 as good. Autographs fall 1:4 boxes. Let's consider any auto of these 10, and any auto of orange tier or rarer a win:

10/65 * 22.8% (chance at any base to gold auto) = 3.4%
Any auto orange or rarer = 2.2%

So roughly 1:8 boxes should be considered a win.

You're doing the Lord's work, as usual. Thanks!