Quote:
Originally Posted by Boredlawyer
Napkin math on hits
15k boxes
-~400 Kurtz autos
~200 Wood parallel autos (base won't break even)
~40 superfractors autos
~50 low numbered Judge, Ohtani, Skenes parallels that would break even
Low numbered Wilson, Sasaki, Kim, Jobe, Schwell, Waldrep, Shaw, Campbell, Crews, Smith, Rice parallels. Maybe 400 of these total? You can snag a Campbell orange for less than the price of a box but maybe Rice gold goes for $750?
Throw in maybe 150 total Sapphire autos-Trout, Ohtani, low numbered parallels of them and the others, and maybe 50 more Non auto Sapphires.
And maybe 25-50 1/1s go for $500+? Most won't clear $200.
So maybe 1350 total cards, at most, across 15k boxes that break even at $700 per box? Maybe a couple hundred more to account for low numbered variation parallels, low numbered Skenes stuff, anything I overlooked.
Just don't see the value at $700
If underlying value is this low, then I flip all day
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I'm not gonna disagree with math. Would I rip this for $700. No way. This is why singles are the way to go.
But at what point do people who love to rip or jump into breaks say no? When EV is 20% of cost? 10%? This is really one of the driving questions for the market. But that's even assuming the market is somewhat rational/logical.
Throw in that ppl love that chase/gambling and others have FOMO and that can sustain the market for awhile.