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Originally Posted by KhalDrogo
Dotcom crash and housing bubble crash took unemployment rates to 6%+ and 10%+, respectively. You don’t get major market crashes like that without a substantial rise in unemployment.
I don’t know what kind of access to capital you think your average hobbyist has outside of their credit cards, for which interest rates have less of an impact on given how high CC interest rates sit at baseline. People find a way to pay for this stuff so long as they have cash flow from their job.
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eBay will lend you money through their Seller Capital program but it's not nearly as cheap as Paypal Working Capital was back in the day. Anyone with an established seller account can get it. I played around with their pricing tool but anything above $3,800 more than doubled the fees. If someone is willing to pay the fees, however, they can get the capital. They just have to make sure their profit margins can cover it.
PPWC was like $35,000 at 3.5%. Now THAT was a good program. $3800 does nothing for me and I'd rather just get the rewards from the credit card. But 35K was great and I used that program quite a bit when Paypal was the payment processor for eBay. I actually thought the card market would crash when eBay moved to managed payments since everyone and their mom had Paypal loans at that time. And perhaps it did to an extent. Managed payments finished rolling out in 2021 and Paypal loans were called at that time when there was no longer revenue to pay it back organically.