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Originally Posted by seanrs1
What you are describing seems problematic to me! I don't do breaks or buy wax. I only buy singles. In general the market seems broken. New wax is very over produced and is likely to have a low yield...for me it would probably better to go to the casino and play poker (both in entertainment value and in monetary value). And singles for 99% of players seem to go down from when they come out.
Even if you pick right and the player you choose to collect has an all star year, it does not seem to move the needle that much.
At this point Ohtani cards are very expensive, but also seem to have the largest market and long term potential to retain value or even go up. Plus he is the most likeable player in the game right now.
He is already likely a HOF, and with a WS win or two and a few more MVPs he is going to be the player of this generation. I see him being the next Ken Griffey Jr. in terms of long term collectability.
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This has always been the way, few players maintain long term value. That said, there are generational macro trends that MATTER in these conversations that you may not be privy to as you didn't collect in the wayback, am I remembering that correctly?
The way way back was to me before the big explosion in the mid 80's, before card shows etc. My impression of this era is that it was a slow burn to increased prices as the hobby coalesced into a proper industry.
The mid 80s to early 90s was the first explosion in value of just about everything that was printed BEFORE that time period. Yes, '86 Canseco's were pumped big time and yes '84 Mattingly's had a huge increase in value. But people that bought nice vintage and prewar before the mid 80s did very well.
The mid 90s to about 2010 were very collector centric, as the masses had moved away from the hobby. The term "junk wax" was coined and all that stuff lost most of its value. Vintage and prewar continued a slow climb up in value.
2010-2021 was the next big bull run, culminating in the COVID blow off top. If I remember you got into the hobby during COVID, so you've experienced mostly a down macro market. Lots of people have already exited the market but it seems to me this hobby expansion may end up being more sticky than the last one, though on a smaller base overall. If I remember correctly by 1995 like 80% of card shops had closed their doors. Fanatics seems hellbent on their "10x" come hell or high water, and more and more speculators/gamblers have entered the hobby as that's what Fanatics is catering to. What you're speaking of is largely a result of this, and I'm beginning to shy away from untramodern completely as supply is just completely out of control.
90s Inserts have had a huge explosion in demand over the last 5 or so years, and again vintage and prewar did very well through 2021 but that stuff is well off its COVID peaks for the most part.
You, being a current player collector, have a conundrum to figure out. Will you ride the crazy supply train because you like the players that are currently successful and hope the hobby continues to expand? Or will you change direction as you realize most of the stuff you want to buy will probably lose value over the long term?
It seems you like to buy into the top 4 or 5 players of the current season, and next season if those players are different you will buy into the highest performing players of next year. This is a fun way to collect, you are riding hype waves left and right. But you have to expect you are buying at or near tops in a lot of these players cards.
My guess is the hobby will have to go through another major contraction for the next big opportunity to come around macro-wise. Will you stick around through that contraction and see the fruit from it?
TBP has been through both of the major cycles and has held on to lots of stuff he got cheap through the lean years of those cycles and now has an amazing collection without ever infusing large amounts of money into his collection. Of course, this has been a 40 year process lol.
Have fun!
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