Schwarber could very well hit 500 HR. He would need to average 36 HR over the next seven seasons to get there, which doesn’t seem far-fetched at all.
But check this out: his home run total accounts for nearly half of the runs he’s scored and half the runs he’s knocked in. (Well, 42% and 45%. If not nearly half, then approaching half.) Those are really high percentages.
By contrast, Miguel Cabrera’s 511 HR account for 33% of his runs scored and 27% of his RBI.
Without looking at the rest of his stat sheet, that would seem to indicate that Schwarber doesn’t do the other things at the plate that would make a player HOF-level. And of course, that certainly is how it plays out: he doesn’t get many hits, he doesn’t hit lots of doubles, and he doesn’t have much of a track record of driving in base runners or putting himself in position to score lots of runs.
Granted, these past two seasons have seen an uptick in production, but he’d have to keep that up for a decade to approach HOF-level run production. Or he’d need to raise his average and non-homer power significantly to get his OPS into elite territory.
On top of that, he’s no magician with the glove.
Maybe if he keeps up the current level, and perhaps mixes in some higher-average seasons, he could approach a Harmon Killebrew career stat line. But it’ll take a lot to get there.
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