Quote:
Originally Posted by Rootleaf
This has been an interesting release to watch. Based on the production estimate of 50,000 boxes (a couple of people independently came up with this number including me so I feel pretty good about it) and the statement from UD (see podcast someone referenced several pages back) that 75% was going to epack, approximately 23.4% of the Spider-Man Metal stock is opened and visible on epack. This number is affected by the base and high series being combined so it's a rough estimate. Looking at some of the visible parallels puts the estimate in the low 20s. Counting up the orange parallels visible on epack and comc gives a percentage of 27.4%. You have to consider some cards are locked, sent home, etc. which increases that number. I would estimate about 30%-35% of the epack stock has been opened, probably closer to 35%.
The revenue is pretty staggering when compared to other Marvel epack releases. If 37,500 boxes went to epack, that's $17.8 million when it sells out. By contrast, I estimated about $1 million for the epack release of 2019 Premier. A friend estimated $1.3 million for the epack release of 2020MM.
It will be interesting to see where it goes from here. Will it linger for a couple of months or sit for a while like the older sets did back in the day? I guess it depends on if another Marvel product is released in the next few months. If this is the only Marvel option for the rest of the year I don't think it will last until 2023. Maybe we'll get a surprise set like epack exclusive 2021 Marvel Premier.
|
The 25%-35% opened on epack estimate is surprising to me. All this craze around Spidey Metal, and just a dent in the overall product. The high price tag must be keeping many away (including me).
But I have no doubt it’ll eventually sell out like everything else. It is staggering how much revenue this set must be bringing in for UD. I can only imagine, if you are UD and see some sets yield one or two million, and something like this yielding upwards of 20M or whatever, that their focus might be to repeat this sort of set moving forward. The downside is the market will probably see more PMGs as UD milks it, higher print runs, and this sort of rehashed art set, since the market throws money at it regardless of the originality of the art.