Originally Posted by BiggNuttz
I have done a lot of analysis on the Cyrillic since they were released, and happy to offer some analytics and a few opinions.
For me, Panini is much more difficult to get my head around, in comparison to Topps. Panini never gives you specific odds/print runs for many cards, so it leaves everyone guessing. With the Cyrillic cards, the best proxy has been to use the PSA population reports for the most heavily graded cards, and see where the Cyrillic fall in relation to known/numbered parallels. From what I have seen, the Cyrillic print run is probably +/- 5 compared to the Camouflage which are numbered to 20, meaning the Cyrillic are probably between 15~25 printed. I came to this conclusion, simply by looking at the most heavily graded cards, and seeing how many Cyrillic were graded compared to the numbered parallels. For those that care, here is a brief synopsis. These are all from the PSA population report. I did not use BGS, SGC or any other company. This was for the sake of simplicity. The PSA numbers are as follows:
Messi: Camo 9 Cyrillic 7
Salah: Camo 5 Cyrillic 7
Mbappe: Camo 7 Cyrillic 8
Ronaldo: Camo 8 Cyrillic 8
A couple of other random observations. Outside of these players, the number of Cyrillic graded vs. other cards varies widely. Some have 3 Cyrillic with zero Camo, whilst other will have 5 Camo and zero Cyrillic. Neymar has had zero Cyrillic graded which is very surprising to me. The Cyrillic seem to grade very well. The proportion of PSA 10's seems to fall in the 60%~70% range.
A couple of general thoughts about these cards. I think that in general, the value falls a bit on the lower side of the Camos, simply because they are not numbered, which makes it a bit harder for potential buyers to understand, so holds them back a little bit. I also think that the Cyrillic cards in general are easy to miss compared to a coloured parallel. I think that this will mean that many cards will be stuck in a box of commons in a shoebox in some kid's closet in Vienna or Montevideo, never to see the light of day until they are discovered some time in the future. Because of this, I think they might end up being a bit rarer and more difficult to find compared to the known print run. I also think that the name in Cyrillic is neither a big positive or negative for the cards potential value. I don't see a large pool of collectors who would value the Cyrillic for this feature other than the absolute rarity.
Given the above facts, and opinions, where do I think that leaves the value? I think that it will probably fall a little bit below the comparable Camo version, simply due to the fact that it is not numbered. I have six historical data points for graded Mbappe Camos as follows:
20 March 2021 PWC PSA 10 $25,656
22 May 2021 Goldin PSA 10 $26,400
18 Sep 2021 PWCC BGS 9.5 $20,400
17 Dec 2021 PWCC BGS 9.5 $13,500
10 March 2022 PWCC BGS 9.5 (card #01/20) $22,000
1 May 2022 Goldin BGS 9 $10,800
From the above data, I would extrapolate that a PSA 10 Cyrillic right now, should be +/- $20,000. I arrive at this simply by valuing it below a PSA 10 Camo, and also because the market is lower since those last sales. High end will hold up better, but it will still be a bit softer than the peak numbers.
Regards
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