Quote:
Originally Posted by discodanman45
My thoughts are that the 1986 Topps Trade PSA 10, 1987 Topps PSA 10, or any mass produced junk wax PSA 10 Bonds will at best stay the same price even if he makes the HOF. Before COVID it was financially silly to submit a Bonds junk wax card to PSA, because if it didn't get a PSA 10 you lost money grading the card. With everyone entering back in the hobby, people are now cracking open their sealed 1986 Topps Traded and pulling their numerous 1987 Topps rookies out of 30 year old toploaders and submitting them in large quantities to PSA. Eventually PSA will catch up on grading and all versions of graded Bonds rookies will flood the market. IMO only the rare Bonds will hold value and spike with the HOF. Right now on eBay there are 36 PSA 10 1987 Topps rookies of Bonds and it has been increasing recently.
When it all comes down to it, POP reports will remain the strongest influencer of prices. Also PSA could try to keep POP numbers lower to have these cards maintain their value. I think the Tiffanies are a good buy still, but I would only buy PSA 9 verisions of the junk wax for my collection. PSA 10 junk wax is insanity right now. Paying $2000 for a Ken Griffey Jr PSA 10 Upper Deck is just a bragging piece at this point. There are so many beautiful PSA 9's or BGS/SGC alternatives that can be bought for $200 that I don't see the value. You can buy a 1984 Fleer Update Roger Clemens for the same price as a 1989 Upper Deck Griffey for the same price in PSA 10. One has a population of 3900 and will continue to grow as more people submit. The other has a population of 563 with very limited supply.
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The Griffey is higher (and will remain as such) because a) Griffey was/is way more popular than Clemens and more importantly b) the 1989 UD is the iconic card of a generation.