Quote:
Originally Posted by eldavojohn
Probabilities across different events are rarely additive. Let's assume there's two events that are drawings for unrelated lottery drawings in two different states. You buy enough tickets in both events to have 75% of winning in each event. 75% + 75% = 150% chance of winning. If they were additive, it would be impossible to lose both events -- in fact you might reason you have 100% chance of winning one event and a coin flip of winning the other. This is not how probability works as there's clearly a 25% chance you do not win in each lottery -- meaning that 1/4*1/4 or 1/16 chance of winning nothing.
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I concede that my adding was completely wrong. But, I maintain I was closer to correct than concluding a 10-pack gets you a 9.6% chance on a 1,000 PR! No offense!
And APD the crazy dreams continue but last night I was hanging with James Doohan when Deforest Kelley showed up at the party and recognized me for some reason from something we had done together in the past. Then I pointed out Doohan and they went crazy. Some former pro cyclists were also there, it was a strange event.