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Originally Posted by GeechQuest
Tons of time still but you're looking at Bernie or Biden. My money is on Biden and then him somehow managing to lose the General due to the Bernie supporters not showing up, reminiscent of 2016.
Bernie will win or compete in the states you need to win for the General (Penn, Mich, Wisc). That was the misstep by the DNC last go round. Hillary (and Biden) out primary in the states that don't matter (the South) and Bernie takes the states you actually need to turnout voters for.
Biden probably takes Penn, but the 2 key states of Wisconsin and Michigan will go Bernie like they did in 2016. You need all 3 because I doubt either can flip any other states.
Florida and Ohio should go to Trump. Maybe, just maybe Bernie could flip Utah but it wouldn't be enough.
I think Biden takes it solely based off him beating Bernie in Penn and he'd likely also beat Trump in Penn. That may just be enough.
Bloomberg may hang around like Kasich did in 2016, but he's not a legit nominee.
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So pretty spot on.
Biden wins these states and gets delegates from states that are going to Trump anyway, whereas the blue states go to Bernie.
The one takeaway I have from tonight as it projects forward in the decade is Texas obviously has a large contingent of left voters as opposed to just center-left. The demographics in Texas are changing every year, and if the Democrats can lock up Texas then the presidential races will effectively be over getting the electoral college votes from NY, CA, and TX.
It’s not happening this year as I think Trump has pretty much locked up re-election with the fracturing of the Democratic Party, but it seems like the system is going to end up turning the tide for the Democrats anyway in the future.