How to value cards with few previous sales?
 

[IMG]https://i.imgur.com/feVUlft.jpeg[/IMG]

I've been trying to locate a solid Junior Seau card for some time now: e.g. Rubies, PMG, even his Topps Tiffany rookie. I came across this 1996 Select Certified Premium Stock Mirror Red card on eBay, but my offers still seem to come in too low - even at $650.

Unfortunately, there are only two listed transactions for this card on CL - from many years ago and ungraded. Other graded cards from the set have gone for ~$600-$1300 (upper end for HOF QBs). e.g. Marshall Faulk BGS 9.5 went for $661 earlier this year.

[B]CORRECTION:[/B] The Faulk was actually a BGS 9 that sold for $661 (it has a subgrade of 9.5)

It's subjective, but I feel that I'm close to a fair price on this. Is there another way I can be looking at this for valuation purposes or should I just wait for another Seau opportunity to present itself? How do you personally determine FMV for cards with so little history and limited print run?

[QUOTE=dgioulakis;19561137][IMG]https://i.imgur.com/feVUlft.jpeg[/IMG]

I've been trying to locate a solid Junior Seau card for some time now: e.g. Rubies, PMG, even his Topps Tiffany rookie. I came across this 1996 Select Certified Premium Stock Mirror Red card on eBay, but my offers still seem to come in too low - even at $650.

Unfortunately, there are only two listed transactions for this card on CL - from many years ago and ungraded. Other graded cards from the set have gone for ~$600-$1300 (upper end for HOF QBs). e.g. Marshall Faulk BGS 9.5 went for $661 earlier this year.

It's subjective, but I feel that I'm close to a fair price on this. Is there another way I can be looking at this for valuation purposes or should I just wait for another Seau opportunity to present itself? How do you personally determine FMV for cards with so little history and limited print run?[/QUOTE]

I look at similar players and their pricing. This works better for widely issued cards. Low print run parallels, 1/1, etc don’t necessarily use the same rules as emotion can get the best of buyers when rarities hit the market. If you are bidding on eBay for these, you are better off sniping - you don’t want to draw a lot attention to the card.

[QUOTE=Chicosbailbonds;19561163]I look at similar players and their pricing. This works better for widely issued cards. Low print run parallels, 1/1, etc don’t necessarily use the same rules as emotion can get the best of buyers when rarities hit the market. If you are bidding on eBay for these, you are better off sniping - you don’t want to draw a lot attention to the card.[/QUOTE]

I appreciate the insight. Unfortunately, it seems more and more eBay listings are no longer using an auction format, but "Buy It Now (w/ extremely high asks) or Best Offer". I guess there are pros and cons to this. It's been quite tough to find 90s rare inserts or parallels.

The Faulk was a 9 that sold for $661.
Personally I do not think the pricing is insanely higher than what it should be. These cards often get listed poorly and are extremely limited so it is hard to gauge a real value. But considering the player, the set, and the grade, I would expect it to be at least $1000, but the seller may be looking for closer to $1200.

[QUOTE=marinocollector;19561173]The Faulk was a 9 that sold for $661.
Personally I do not think the pricing is insanely higher than what it should be. These cards often get listed poorly and are extremely limited so it is hard to gauge a real value. But considering the player, the set, and the grade, I would expect it to be at least $1000, but the seller may be looking for closer to $1200.[/QUOTE]

You're right ... I misread the listing on CL for Faulk. I'll take that into consideration and maybe submit a higher offer. Thanks for the correction and feedback.

Just to give you an honest valuation, and nothing else, I would say $500-750 range would be a fair estimate. I think your offer of $650 is definitely generous and fair to both buyer and seller. You might have to wait for a different Seau if this seller thinks it’s worth $1500 or something. It most definitely is not.

Awesome card, good luck!

As others have said, you find the most similar things you can.

Options include:

1) The same parallel in a similar player.
2) A similar card in a different year or set.

Examples: I pull a Dak Prescott base card from Mosaic numbered to 10. None have sold. I can look at other QBs in his range and see if they have sales. You can't get this perfect, and obviously you don't go with a hot rookie or Mahomes, but a guy like Herbert is probably a good comparison.

You could also go look at what his /10 sold for in previous years if his general market has remained steady like Dak's more or less has.

You can also go see what /10 Dak Prescott bases sold for in other sets IF you understand how they generally sell compared to one another. For example, if you can find the Dak Prescott /10 base card from Phoenix, you can go higher than that for Mosaic. But if you find it out of Prizm/Optic/Select, you're going to have to go lower on your price in all likelihood.

Hope that helps.

[QUOTE=abovethesink;19561305]As others have said, you find the most similar things you can.

Options include:

1) The same parallel in a similar player.
2) A similar card in a different year or set.

Examples: I pull a Dak Prescott base card from Mosaic numbered to 10. None have sold. I can look at other QBs in his range and see if they have sales. You can't get this perfect, and obviously you don't go with a hot rookie or Mahomes, but a guy like Herbert is probably a good comparison.

You could also go look at what his /10 sold for in previous years if his general market has remained steady like Dak's more or less has.

You can also go see what /10 Dak Prescott bases sold for in other sets IF you understand how they generally sell compared to one another. For example, if you can find the Dak Prescott /10 base card from Phoenix, you can go higher than that for Mosaic. But if you find it out of Prizm/Optic/Select, you're going to have to go lower on your price in all likelihood.

Hope that helps.[/QUOTE]

All good thoughts/fine points, but there’s a big difference between a card with a stated print run of 20 from nearly 30 years ago, and modern /10s of QBs (in which there’s 100s of /10s of each guy produced in each given year). His best comp is probably the one he found. There is going to be so little public sale data for these cards (96 mirror red premium stock) today that best you can really do is try to make an educated guess. That’s always the problem with acquiring rare 90s stuff, finding a fair price that both buyer and seller are comfortable with. I think the OP is right on with his offer. Unfortunately, it seems the seller isn’t in same page and that’s ok, it happens all the time in the rare 90s space.

[QUOTE=packerfan4200;19561360]All good thoughts/fine points, but there’s a big difference between a card with a stated print run of 20 from nearly 30 years ago, and modern /10s of QBs (in which there’s 100s of /10s of each guy produced in each given year). His best comp is probably the one he found. There is going to be so little public sale data for these cards (96 mirror red premium stock) today that best you can really do is try to make an educated guess. That’s always the problem with acquiring rare 90s stuff, finding a fair price that both buyer and seller are comfortable with. I think the OP is right on with his offer. Unfortunately, it seems the seller isn’t in same page and that’s ok, it happens all the time in the rare 90s space.[/QUOTE]


Yeah, I was responding to the title question more than the specifics of the post.

@abovethesink great points; thanks for sharing. Definitely very helpful for future consideration - especially when I pick-up anything from recent years. And as a follow-up by @packerfan4200, I think you're also spot-on in your assessment. And I'll gladly pay a price premium on 90's limited runs over anything Panini has released since 2010. Even if the market doesn't reflect this currently.

Nothing to add other than the Etched Mirror Reds are one of my fav cards, I have 13 of 20 Biakabutuka, so I suppose there can only be 7 complete sets possible in the world. If you end up being able to get the Seau I think you'll really like it.

For comparison, a raw Bruce Smith sold for $850 in October . How does Seau compare to Smith?

[QUOTE=dgioulakis;19561406]@abovethesink great points; thanks for sharing. Definitely very helpful for future consideration - especially when I pick-up anything from recent years. And as a follow-up by @packerfan4200, I think you're also spot-on in your assessment. And I'll gladly put a price premium on 90's limited runs over anything Panini has released since 2010. Even if the market doesn't reflect this currently.[/QUOTE]

Regarding your last sentence, 100%…I was scrolling eBay a few months ago and found a Reggie white 97 showcase row 2 legacy /100 for $90. Didn’t even think twice to buy that. Wild to me you can find stuff like that when an Aaron Jones downtown is $300.

[QUOTE=mc1;19561610]For comparison, a raw Bruce Smith sold for $850 in October . How does Seau compare to Smith?[/QUOTE]

Nice find…probably put seau in the tier below Bruce. I think the OPs offer was pretty much right on.

90s stuff is particularly tough; because of influencers and the remnants of the COVID-driven card explosion some of the blue chip 1990s inserts are just sitting at a premium right now, even for scrubs and role players.

I know this isn't exactly what you are asking but there are cards I'd be happy to own, but not at any price.

And then there are cards, when they surface, I obliterate all other bidders in order to ensure that I own them.

It makes it alternately very easy AND hard for me.

Sellers have all the advantage on cards like this. You can't just go find another one to purchase.

[QUOTE=marinocollector;19561173]The Faulk was a 9 that sold for $661.
Personally I do not think the pricing is insanely higher than what it should be. These cards often get listed poorly and are extremely limited so it is hard to gauge a real value. But considering the player, the set, and the grade, I would expect it to be at least $1000, but the seller may be looking for closer to $1200.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=mc1;19561610]For comparison, a raw Bruce Smith sold for $850 in October . How does Seau compare to Smith?[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=49erRCCollector;19561735]90s stuff is particularly tough; because of influencers and the remnants of the COVID-driven card explosion some of the blue chip 1990s inserts are just sitting at a premium right now, even for scrubs and role players.

I know this isn't exactly what you are asking but there are cards I'd be happy to own, but not at any price.

And then there are cards, when they surface, I obliterate all other bidders in order to ensure that I own them.

It makes it alternately very easy AND hard for me.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=razorsharp;19561796]Sellers have all the advantage on cards like this. You can't just go find another one to purchase.[/QUOTE]


Thanks, guys, for all your input on this. After being declined yet again with a $700 offer, I decided that for some cards, I'll follow @49erRCCollector's thought process and an offer was accepted at $1,000. Definitely over-paying, but I hadn't seen that Bruce Smith prior transaction. (Thank you @mc1)

The two played different positions but are both top 5 respectively. And I often see more of Smith's high-end cards for sale than Seau - for whatever reason. I can finally check off Seau from my wish-list albeit with a little extra pain from the wallet.

[QUOTE=dgioulakis;19562668]Thanks, guys, for all your input on this. After being declined yet again with a $700 offer, I decided that for some cards, I'll follow @49erRCCollector's thought process and an offer was accepted at $1,000. Definitely over-paying, but I hadn't seen that Bruce Smith prior transaction. (Thank you @mc1)

The two played different positions but are both top 5 respectively. And I often see more of Smith's high-end cards for sale than Seau - for whatever reason. I can finally check off Seau from my wish-list albeit with a little extra pain from the wallet.[/QUOTE]


That's a beautiful card and beautiful set. One thing for sure, you would have never seen another in that grade pop up - and you would have really kicked yourself if someone had grabbed it before you.

Congrats on the purchase! Get us a great scan in good lighting when you get it in hand :)

[QUOTE=dgioulakis;19562668]Thanks, guys, for all your input on this. After being declined yet again with a $700 offer, I decided that for some cards, I'll follow @49erRCCollector's thought process and an offer was accepted at $1,000. Definitely over-paying, but I hadn't seen that Bruce Smith prior transaction. (Thank you @mc1):)!

The two played different positions but are both top 5 respectively. And I often see more of Smith's high-end cards for sale than Seau - for whatever reason. I can finally check off Seau from my wish-list albeit with a little extra pain from the wallet.[/QUOTE]

Really nice score! Congrats on the awesome card!

[QUOTE=dgioulakis;19562668]Thanks, guys, for all your input on this. After being declined yet again with a $700 offer, I decided that for some cards, I'll follow @49erRCCollector's thought process and an offer was accepted at $1,000. Definitely over-paying, but I hadn't seen that Bruce Smith prior transaction. (Thank you @mc1)

The two played different positions but are both top 5 respectively. And I often see more of Smith's high-end cards for sale than Seau - for whatever reason. I can finally check off Seau from my wish-list albeit with a little extra pain from the wallet.[/QUOTE]

I think you did great. I think packers was not including the 9.5 grade in the items value during his assessment. Although I am not a huge fan of paying up for high condition, rare items like this Seau you just have to because by the time you see another, the card could sell for the same price. This set also is gaining quite rapid. I paid $600 for my Marino in 2021. In 2023 a private sale of $2500 happened on one.

[QUOTE=marinocollector;19563022]I think you did great. I think packers was not including the 9.5 grade in the items value during his assessment. Although I am not a huge fan of paying up for high condition, rare items like this Seau you just have to because by the time you see another, the card could sell for the same price. This set also is gaining quite rapid. I paid $600 for my Marino in 2021. In 2023 a private sale of $2500 happened on one.[/QUOTE]

Definitely right on the last few sentences. I’m on the opposite end of the spectrum here…I sold some high grade, rare Reggie white stuff (and lots of it) pre-Covid that makes me shudder to think about now. One that comes to mind immediately, 97 totally certified platinum gold /24 psa 10 for literally pennies on the dollar for what it would be worth today. Many others too. Oh well :doh:

Happy for you, OP. I'll say this - I have ZERO regrets (ragrets?) when I really wanted a rare card and paid up for it. I don't normally sell key pieces but those purchases, over time, have appreciated.

Enjoy it... and post new scans!

[QUOTE=marinocollector;19561173]The Faulk was a 9 that sold for $661.
Personally I do not think the pricing is insanely higher than what it should be. These cards often get listed poorly and are extremely limited so it is hard to gauge a real value. But considering the player, the set, and the grade, I would expect it to be at least $1000, but the seller may be looking for closer to $1200.[/QUOTE]

Hitting the hammer on the nails head. These 90’s cards are a quest to find and members want Gold for the price of Coal. They don’t pop up often and by researching even cards produced out of /100 from 30 years ago, there are not many listed. They are in collections. I call them “Vault” cards.

The collectors from 3 decades ago are today at the age of high 40’s to roughly 60’s. The seller holds the advantage unless the buyer just wishes to forgo the hunt. Comps are only good when there are enough cards not have bidding wars.

Today was PSA-pickup-day and I'm happy to report that after cracking the original BGS 9.5 slab and wiping down the card for PSA submission, here is the end result!

[IMG]https://i.imgur.com/RHOf3b4.jpeg[/IMG]

AMAZING. Beautiful card. Congrats!

[QUOTE=mc1;19561610]For comparison, a raw Bruce Smith sold for $850 in October . How does Seau compare to Smith?[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=packerfan4200;19561650]Regarding your last sentence, 100%…I was scrolling eBay a few months ago and found a Reggie white 97 showcase row 2 legacy /100 for $90. Didn’t even think twice to buy that. Wild to me you can find stuff like that when an Aaron Jones downtown is $300.



Nice find…probably put seau in the tier below Bruce. I think the OPs offer was pretty much right on.[/QUOTE]

I would think the opposite, so a tier above due to the position or at the minimum on par. Junior Seau is also one of the few Polynesian Hall of Famers, so that can have an impact.

When it comes to scarcity, whether the card or condition with this being graded, its alway going to be on the buyer. There are cards that people are looking for in this forum that have been on their want list for 20 plus years. Think about that for second.....that could go from being unable to buy beer, to meeting retirement criteria at certain jobs. You can go from not having kids to your kids graduating high school. Just offer what you think is fair while considering the above.

Edited to add: I caught up, congratulations!