How to Comp Vintage
 

Looking at starting to buy some more vintage, but my price range currently sits where I’d be looking at lower grade examples. Since I’m newer to vintage, would want to buy graded to ensure authenticity, but it appears to be much harder to find “comps” on vintage as they seem to vary wildly for cards in the same grade based on eye appeal. Any tips to avoid getting smoked on some first purchases? Thanks!

Sounds like you're on the right track already. Eye appeal matters a ton and is the reason so much variance exists in prices. Centering is huge, and for lower grade you'll obviously want to avoid creases across the face or other ugliness unless it's a steal of a price.

I generally avoid slabbed cards with qualifiers, miscut or marks. They tend to go for more than I think they're worth. People see a 3(MK) and value it too high.

I'm sure lots of members here have lots of tips, but those are the big ones in my opinion. This is probably stuff you already knew.

Happy hunting! Deals are out there. :)

It really depends on the cards you want to buy. Some are best bought raw and others like an early Mantle you need to be careful. If you are buying cards like 1951 Topps Red Backs you will never buy a fake. Let us know what cards you are considering and we could give suggestions!

[QUOTE=discodanman45;19512381]It really depends on the cards you want to buy. Some are best bought raw and others like an early Mantle you need to be careful. If you are buying cards like 1951 Topps Red Backs you will never buy a fake. Let us know what cards you are considering and we could give suggestions![/QUOTE]


Sure thing! I’ve had my eye on a ‘53 Satchel for a while now (trying to stay sub $700), and really like the ‘54 Topps design(maybe not a popular opinion :) ) so thinking about starting with all the HoFers from that set.

[QUOTE=ForeverToThee;19512407]Sure thing! I’ve had my eye on a ‘53 Satchel for a while now (trying to stay sub $700), and really like the ‘54 Topps design(maybe not a popular opinion :) ) so thinking about starting with all the HoFers from that set.[/QUOTE]

The 1953 Satchel you will definitely need to go for eye appeal PSA/SGC 2 card. Something like that would be a great card show purchase. Lower grade cards like that have creases you can't make out until you get the card in hand. I would always want to see it in person for a 1 to 3 grade.

A few reasonable 1954 HOF's to start with in the 1954 set would be Monte Irvin, Phil Rizzuto, Richie Ashburn, Whitey Ford, and Warren Spahn. Personally I love the Whitey Ford card with the blue background. These cards are pretty plentiful and I wouldn't hesitate to buy any of the cards I listed raw. Some absolute beauties in PSA/SGC 4 slabs for some of the players I listed for under $80. :)!

Edit: Best way to comp is to look at past sales on eBay or go to [url]https://130point.com/cards/[/url].

I will sometimes bid PSA-3 / PSA-4 price for a PSA-1 or 1.5 or 2 if I like the way it looks. A rough looking 4 might be the same price as a really nice looking 2. I'll take the 2.

If you look at comps and then a nice card for a given grade comes up for auction and you bid according to comps, you are likely to come up short. I never did land a PSA-7 Yaz rookie back then they were ~$300 because I always tried to stay disciplined and the really nice ones always went higher than I was willing to pay. The off center ones, the poor-print-quality ones, those always went a bit cheaper.

If you buy raw, then real photos (vs scans) are usually easier to decipher condition, especially corners. A dinged & dented corner might look fine on a scan, but at a slight angle from a camera lens, the surface variations can show up better.

If you're not sure about a card, post a link here and I'd be glad to tell you what I see.

The other tip I'd suggest is buying a common or two from a given set and see how good your assesment of the condition was when you get the card. < $10 is a cheap lesson. Also look for shipping costs under $2 for the cards under $20. Anyone charging $4.75 to ship a $5 card shouldn't be your first source when that card can be shipped for ~70 cents postage via ebay tracked shipping for cars under $20.

[QUOTE=towerymt;19512815]I will sometimes bid PSA-3 / PSA-4 price for a PSA-1 or 1.5 or 2 if I like the way it looks. A rough looking 4 might be the same price as a really nice looking 2. I'll take the 2.

If you look at comps and then a nice card for a given grade comes up for auction and you bid according to comps, you are likely to come up short.[/QUOTE]

Completely agree. Many times I've paid more for a good-looking 2 than 3s sitting on BINs. Eye appeal shifts price a full grade or more sometimes. It happens across all vintage but seems more prevalent in lower grades.

Anything 3 or below I'm obviously looking for the creases, since they're there whether a scan shows them on not. I like what you said about photos and agree that in these types of cards a scan can hide a lot of stuff.

It's necessary to look over raw pretty well if it's even moderately valuable. Lots of sellers won't mention marks or other nastiness and if a buyer isn't paying attention, they're not going to be satisfied. And while I don't worry about trimming on most low-grade cards, I still peek at the edges. Alterations like recoloring are happening too. Sometimes people even try to press out a crease on some of the bigger names. A good eye can catch a lot of that through photos.

Many moderately valuable low grade cards are raw because TPGs wouldn't assign a number grade due to monkey business. Something to keep in mind.

[QUOTE=JustRachel;19512822]Many moderately valuable low grade cards are raw because TPGs wouldn't assign a number grade due to monkey business. Something to keep in mind.[/QUOTE]

To be fair, many moderately valuable low grade cards are in slabs that were altered as well. After submitting with PSA/SGC/CGC I can tell you none of these companies can tell the difference between a factory cut and a trimmed card. Is that because they spend 20 seconds on a card and don't take the time to actually research it or is it just complete incompetence?

[QUOTE=discodanman45;19512832]To be fair, many moderately valuable low grade cards are in slabs that were altered as well. After submitting with PSA/SGC/CGC I can tell you none of these companies can tell the difference between a factory cut and a trimmed card. Is that because they spend 20 seconds on a card and don't take the time to actually research it or is it just complete incompetence?[/QUOTE]

That is fair, and true.

Thanks everyone for the feedback! The paying up etc makes sense. I’m more used to modern/ultra-modern where a 9/10 sells for what it sells for. When I was comping out vintage PSA 2-4’s or thereabouts was seeing things going from (for instance) $200-400 which is a pretty big swing when used to the modern stuff. Really appreciate the insight!!

[QUOTE=JustRachel;19512822]Anything 3 or below I'm obviously looking for the creases, since they're there whether a scan shows them on not. I like what you said about photos and agree that in these types of cards a scan can hide a lot of stuff. [/QUOTE]

Here's the same card, two different images. Can you see the crease in one of them but not the other?

I bought this card graded and the seller had a great photo showing the crease. But had it just been one of the images of the front, it might have gone unnoticed.

[IMG]https://pbase.com/towerymt/image/172269056.jpg[/IMG]

[IMG]https://pbase.com/towerymt/image/172776361.jpg[/IMG]

(I think the first image was from the listing, second is my scan, Epson V600)

Another reminder...look up PSA certs if they are recent cert numbers (starting somewhere in the 6's, I think, and higher, the ones starting 7, 8, or 9 should almost always have scans)

[url]https://www.psacard.com/cert/[/url]

(some very old PSA slabs had numbers starting with 8 or 9, so it's not EVER card with those cert numbers, but most now will have scans since PSA started imaging every service level a while back)

SGC has images, too. I don't know how recently that started, but a couple years at least?

[QUOTE=towerymt;19513090]Here's the same card, two different images. Can you see the crease in one of them but not the other?

I bought this card graded and the seller had a great photo showing the crease. But had it just been one of the images of the front, it might have gone unnoticed.

[IMG]https://pbase.com/towerymt/image/172269056.jpg[/IMG]

[IMG]https://pbase.com/towerymt/image/172776361.jpg[/IMG]

(I think the first image was from the listing, second is my scan, Epson V600)[/QUOTE]

Beautiful card!

I spotted both the crease and what appears to be a roller line? above it in the first image, but didn't realize the extent of it until looking at the second. Those images definitely highlight what different images can do. :)

This is a card I would target and pay more than other 2s to get. You and I think alike.

This is one of the satchels I was considering, realize it has a wrinkle but seems pretty nice otherwise. Wouldn’t want to pay full ask, eye appeal seems good but wasn’t sure if creases/wrinkles even if not detracting (at least in my opinion) would really knock the pricing.

[url]https://www.ebay.com/itm/204844551532?_trkparms=amclksrc%3DITM%26aid%3D111001%26algo%3DREC.SEED%26ao%3D1%26asc%3D20240305145905%26meid%3D2591645ac1eb43449139d67d658108c6%26pid%3D102022%26rk%3D1%26rkt%3D20%26sd%3D204844551532%26itm%3D204844551532%26pmt%3D0%26noa%3D1%26pg%3D2332490%26brand%3DTopps&_trksid=p2332490.c102022.m5276[/url]

[QUOTE=ForeverToThee;19513216]This is one of the satchels I was considering, realize it has a wrinkle but seems pretty nice otherwise. Wouldn’t want to pay full ask, eye appeal seems good but wasn’t sure if creases/wrinkles even if not detracting (at least in my opinion) would really knock the pricing.

[url]https://www.ebay.com/itm/204844551532?_trkparms=amclksrc%3DITM%26aid%3D111001%26algo%3DREC.SEED%26ao%3D1%26asc%3D20240305145905%26meid%3D2591645ac1eb43449139d67d658108c6%26pid%3D102022%26rk%3D1%26rkt%3D20%26sd%3D204844551532%26itm%3D204844551532%26pmt%3D0%26noa%3D1%26pg%3D2332490%26brand%3DTopps&_trksid=p2332490.c102022.m5276[/url][/QUOTE]

Make sure you watch all the cards you are interested in. I have received 20 to 30% discount offers on cards like this before. You could also send an offer to the seller as well. They do accept offers.

[QUOTE=ForeverToThee;19513216]This is one of the satchels I was considering, realize it has a wrinkle but seems pretty nice otherwise. Wouldn’t want to pay full ask, eye appeal seems good but wasn’t sure if creases/wrinkles even if not detracting (at least in my opinion) would really knock the pricing.

[url]https://www.ebay.com/itm/204844551532?_trkparms=amclksrc%3DITM%26aid%3D111001%26algo%3DREC.SEED%26ao%3D1%26asc%3D20240305145905%26meid%3D2591645ac1eb43449139d67d658108c6%26pid%3D102022%26rk%3D1%26rkt%3D20%26sd%3D204844551532%26itm%3D204844551532%26pmt%3D0%26noa%3D1%26pg%3D2332490%26brand%3DTopps&_trksid=p2332490.c102022.m5276[/url][/QUOTE]

I think that's a great looking PSA2 and I'd pay above average for the grade. Good eye!

As you already said, the ask is too high but in my opinion, that's a strong 2. It's got issues, but all 2s do. No way I'd pay full ask but....

If you make an offer, good luck. :)

Here's a good example of what to expect when buying raw vintage -- note the grade given in the listing is [B]NM[/B]:

[url]https://ebay.com/itm/405045973580[/url]

[B]1975 Topps Hank Aaron, 74 Highlights, SET BREAK, NL All Star #1, NM[/B]

Graded Near Mint. This card is not near mint. Let's take a look. [I](click for full size, or view the ebay listing)[/I]

----------

Centering looks fine -- just off a little left to right.

Upper left corner is no longer sharp -- has wear at the tip.

Top edge looks great.

Upper right corner is sharper than upper left, but wear at the tip, and wear on the surface. This could be a sign of more damage than you can see in a photo (more on that later).

[URL="https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/oBEAAOSwWElmQ7ex/s-l1600.webp"][IMG]https://i.ebayimg.com/thumbs/images/g/oBEAAOSwWElmQ7ex/s-l500.webp[/IMG][/URL]

Left edge looks pretty good -- some light chipping in the brown lower section.

Right edge has two areas of more noticeable chipping -- possibly a ding in the edge.

Lower corners are rounded at the tip (not "rounded", but "rounded at the tip", which means it's no longer pointy...just to be clear what I mean here) with surface wear. Worse than the upper corners. These are too soft for [B]near mint[/B] in my opinion.

I don't see any major print defects on the front -- the color looks good. There is some light print snow in the dark background, upper left corner of the image. Always look for print "snow" on dark areas like that, and excess ink transfer on light areas. [URL="https://ebay.com/itm/186510245639"]'57 #300 Mike Garcia[/URL] is one I know that's common to have the problem. [URL="https://ebay.com/itm/134944277725"]'60 Topps Yastrzemski RC[/URL] often has black ink across the yellow background,

----------

Now the back...

On the right side of the image -- both lower corners look much worse on the back with paper lifting up.

One of the upper corners has a bit of paper folded back at the tip -- that's the worst of the two upper corners when viewing the front.

I think there is a wrinkle up near the card number on the back.

[URL="https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/VfkAAOSwXGhmQ7e~/s-l1600.webp"][IMG]https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/VfkAAOSwXGhmQ7e~/s-l140.webp[/IMG][/URL]

There's most likely a high spot on the front of the card that would be immediately noticed when viewing the front of the card under any light that will pick up the change in surface angle across the wrinkle.

[IMG]https://pbase.com/towerymt/image/174669276.jpg[/IMG]

[B]VG-EX [/B]-- I'd grade it a 4. The front looks like a 6. The lower corners on the back look more like a 5. But with a wrinkle, vg-ex is how I would grade this one.

Buying raw mid-grade vintage is tough because not everyone sees condition the same way, and it can be a challenge to reach your own conclusions from the photos. Fortunately this one had good images and I was able to assess the condition on my own.

If a card is actually graded by the seller, like this one being called near mint, and you review the images and feel good about the assessment, then when it arrives and it has a wrinkle, the return is easy. A Near Mint card will not have a wrinkle, so "item not as described" is an easy return.

But if a card looks to grade EX-MT but is listed with no description and condition is "very good" or something like that, it might not be such an easy case to make, so you might want to ask the seller if there are any defects or damage that cannot be seen in the photos.

Hope this helps.

[QUOTE=towerymt;19515380]Here's a good example of what to expect when buying raw vintage -- note the grade given in the listing is [B]NM[/B]:[/QUOTE]

That seller unfortunately has no clue on how grading works. The other thing is they use AI to generate the description. Vetting the seller is just as important as looking at the card.

[QUOTE=discodanman45;19515386]That seller unfortunately has no clue on how grading works. The other thing is they use AI to generate the description. Vetting the seller is just as important as looking at the card.[/QUOTE]

Agree. :)!

But sometimes those sellers will have cards you want. :D

Here's one I bought a couple years ago...took a chance and it paid off. It was $175 ($190 dlvd).

Title: [B]1954 Topps ted williams baseball cards[/B]
[IMG]https://pbase.com/towerymt/image/174669582.jpg[/IMG]

Arrived looking like this:
[IMG]https://pbase.com/towerymt/image/172927351.jpg[/IMG]

[IMG]https://pbase.com/towerymt/image/172927352.jpg[/IMG]

Result:
[IMG]https://pbase.com/towerymt/image/173096325.jpg[/IMG]

[QUOTE=towerymt;19515488]Agree. :)!

But sometimes those sellers will have cards you want. :D

Here's one I bought a couple years ago...took a chance and it paid off. It was $175 ($190 dlvd).[/QUOTE]

I buy all the time from low feedback sellers. It is a skill grading cards through a screen, but I am really good at it. The majority of the time I win through raw cards.

You just need to trust your gut and play the worse case scenario game. If I buy a raw card for $80 and it has a chance to grade decently and be worth $300, but if it comes back with surface wrinkles and is worth $40 I will take that chance. However, I am not going to pay $250 for that card raw with a chance of a disaster.

To bring this full circle grabbed this one off eBay today :) Know it has some creases/wrinkles but for the price thought it had good eye appeal and saves me about 200-300$ for another purchase :)

[url]https://www.ebay.com/itm/276528924265?mkcid=16&mkevt=1&mkrid=711-127632-2357-0&ssspo=UwJZyNplT7C&sssrc=4429486&ssuid=YhY-nHicTrm&var=&widget_ver=artemis&media=COPY[/url]

[QUOTE=ForeverToThee;19519350]To bring this full circle grabbed this one off eBay today :) Know it has some creases/wrinkles but for the price thought it had good eye appeal and saves me about 200-300$ for another purchase :)

[url]https://www.ebay.com/itm/276528924265?mkcid=16&mkevt=1&mkrid=711-127632-2357-0&ssspo=UwJZyNplT7C&sssrc=4429486&ssuid=YhY-nHicTrm&var=&widget_ver=artemis&media=COPY[/url][/QUOTE]

Nothing wrong with that!

One quick tip I use to comp vintage is go on eBay. Look up seller Greg Morris. Go to completed listings and boom instant vintage comps. If you want to get even more advanced just filter the season you are looking for. Thousands of completed vintage listings.

[QUOTE=Hawksmack;19715286]One quick tip I use to comp vintage is go on eBay. Look up seller Greg Morris. Go to completed listings and boom instant vintage comps. If you want to get even more advanced just filter the season you are looking for. Thousands of completed vintage listings.[/QUOTE]

GMC is not a place to comp vintage cards. It is a place to see what other people pay for his companies opinion, which often sells for more than a graded card in the same condition. I personally stay away from his cards since the majority of them go for insane prices. I have had better luck with COMC and first time sellers over any of the big time respected sellers on eBay. In fact, I was mostly disappointed from GMC, KYC, and other trusted sellers.

Everyone's method for comping is different. For me it starts with qualities I value the most in my cards. Or conversely, it starts with what defects I dislike the most in your cards. If I see a card that is over-graded in my opinion, it will never be a good deal. Ever. Just move on. Other buyers won't pay comps on a card like that so unless you are getting it for 50 cents on the dollar forget it.

I use two main sources for comps -- the first and most important is EBay Sold. Just be careful with this when there aren't a lot of recent comps. The fewer the recent sales, the more likely you will misinterpret the data, and there are false flag sales as well. If the sale is an outlier, aka too high or too low to be believed, then toss it.

The other source is PSA. Look the card up and see what recent comps go for. This is not without its flaws either, as they miss a lot of sales, but it enables you to get a perspective beyond eBay.

Generally speaking, consider your objective for the card. If you're looking to buy and flip then you want to have a tougher standard for comps. Really you're looking for cards that are definitely below comps, right? The rarer the card, the less efficient the market is. In other words, if you are looking for a 1975 George Brett in PSA 7, there are a zillion comps and you are less likely to find bargains since the market is so well established. If you're looking for some oddball prewar card, there might be no comps, or very few. You might be looking at a comp from 2020 and have to assess how the market has changed since then. There can be greater opportunity here since the seller is more likely to misinterpret the current market either high or (occasionally) low.

In terms of comps of a particular grade, centering seems to be the most important. In other words, a centered 75 Brett PSA 7 might comp at ~$250 and an off center Brett 7 with no Q might comp at ~$200. The off center Brett is likely to have better corners or better something else, if they both comp at the same grade. But really study the card. It definitely helps to have the card in your hand, as surface defects don't show up in photos, and any grade from 1 to 9 can have surface defects. So there's a benefit to seeing the card in person and not having to deal with the cost/risk of shipping. I suspect most successful high $volume dealers do most of their big buys in person (at shows etc.) for this reason.