Will Burrow Prices Drop Dramatically?
 

see title'? Will his prices drop dramatically?

His Rated Rookie Holos last night were going for $900

His Orange Lazer Prizm were going for $650

Thoughts?

With a declining economy + a declining hobby + offseason dip...yes his cards are about to drop. Drastically...I'm not sure. So either sell now for a loss or wait 8 months and pray the economy doesn't completely tank.

I would hope a super bowl appearance + a near 2nd year in a row super bowl appearance means something and they don't completely tank.

If you're comparing prices to this week, right after a Bills demolishing and the prospects of playing a hurt Mahomes with little weapons, YES they are going to tank compared to the crazy bump in prices we saw this week.

If you're comparing to 2020 prices, no they will be right in line.

[QUOTE=Taybox;18678698]I would hope a super bowl appearance + a near 2nd year in a row super bowl appearance means something and they don't completely tank.[/QUOTE]

Jim Kelly went to four super bowls and his cards never recovered.

Joe Flacco won a Super Bowl and his stuff tanked.

Big Ben won two super bowls and his stuff never reached the peak again.

Burrow was a pandemic pump baby - don’t hold your breath waiting for his cards to recover in price.

[QUOTE=Taybox;18678698]I would hope a super bowl appearance + a near 2nd year in a row super bowl appearance means something and they don't completely tank.[/QUOTE]

Super bowl appearance and super bowl win are two gigantically different things, and "[I]almost[/I] SB appearance 2 years in a row" means nothing. Anyone holding these guys at this time of year should be expecting a pretty good drop as soon as they lose. Just the nature of pricing in a potential SB win.

Will his stuff "tank?" I think his achievements thus far plus his star power give him a higher floor, but his prices may very well have peaked as long as he stays in Cincy. If you're not in for the long haul, I'd get out asap.

I don't know that he tanks (relative to other QBs) because other than Mahomes and Hurts, there weren't any other hobby qbs who had a better playoff run.

This team will be loaded again next year and he'll get a lot of hype as Super Bowl favorites, or close to it. He's still got some time before collectors really start to move on.

Yes, his prices are going to drop significantly from this week's peak... Yes, I am going to be buying in the offseason

That's like asking if Christmas decorations will be cheaper on December 26th. Of course! It's a cycle like anything else. If you are buying to re-sell then you buy in the offseason and sell around Week 12 or so when the playoff battles are heating up and a certain player is making a nice run. Long term, it depends on a lot of stuff. Who knew Geno Smith would ever be collectible again? Injuries happen. Trades happen. Some players just fall off. Others get better. But asking if his prices will drop the day after being eliminated from the playoffs is bordering on rhetorical.

If he's healthy, he's elite for his career. Does that mean anything to the hobby though?

I'd expect a dip in prices. He's pretty popular so there's a near term floor at some level. Might take an MVP and a ring to get back to previous heights.

[QUOTE=Taybox;18678681]see title'? Will his prices drop dramatically?

His Rated Rookie Holos last night were going for $900

His Orange Lazer Prizm were going for $650

Thoughts?[/QUOTE]

yes...

I don't see his prices dipping all that dramatically. People love him, non-fans love him, he's healthy, has charisma, a blue-collar work ethic and relatable attitude... All arrows are pointing upward.

Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Tua, Derek Carr, Deshaun Watson, and Dak Prescott on the other hand... I wouldn't touch those dudes' cards with a 10-foot pole.

[QUOTE=dcarado;18678759]Super bowl appearance and super bowl win are two gigantically different things, and "[I]almost[/I] SB appearance 2 years in a row" means nothing. Anyone holding these guys at this time of year should be expecting a pretty good drop as soon as they lose. Just the nature of pricing in a potential SB win.

Will his stuff "tank?" I think his achievements thus far plus his star power give him a higher floor, but his prices may very well have peaked as long as he stays in Cincy. If you're not in for the long haul, I'd get out asap.[/QUOTE]

SB wins hardly mean anything (unless you are overly popular, hobby hyped) - Eli Manning, 2x Super Bowl Champ, says hi...

[QUOTE=majestik101;18679368]I don't see his prices dipping all that dramatically. People love him, non-fans love him, he's healthy, has charisma, a blue-collar work ethic and relatable attitude... All arrows are pointing upward.

Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Tua, Derek Carr, Deshaun Watson, and Dak Prescott on the other hand... I wouldn't touch those dudes' cards with a 10-foot pole.[/QUOTE]

Tell us you own Burrow cards without telling us you own Burrow cards:D

Unless he has some off-field trouble, any Burrow RC that you buy next month will be able to be sold at a profit in August or September

[QUOTE=Mj4au;18679380]SB wins hardly mean anything (unless you are overly popular, hobby hyped) - Eli Manning, 2x Super Bowl Champ, says hi...[/QUOTE]

Eli's graded rookie cards fetch solid money. His PSA 10 Topps base cards were fetching more than flavor of the day PSA 10 2020 Donruss Burrow cards until he knocked off the Bills. The New York market probably helps but his raw rookies would be 50 cent box card show material without those wins.

Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson are better examples. Those rookies are 50 cent box material on a good day.

If Burrows prices fall, Allen’s will more


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[QUOTE=ScooterD;18679463]Unless he has some off-field trouble, any Burrow RC that you buy next month will be able to be sold at a profit in August or September[/QUOTE]

That's what everyone said last year at this time about Mahomes, and values crashed 50% between Feb and October:)!

[QUOTE=ScooterD;18679463]Unless he has some off-field trouble, any Burrow RC that you buy next month will be able to be sold at a profit in August or September[/QUOTE]

Careful giving this type of advice in todays world. You aren't accounting for the decline in the overall economy and the dip still left in the hobby. He very well may not decline at the rate of other QBs but the cards you buy today, can easily be less 8 months from now...that has nothing to do with performance.

[QUOTE=blockedbyjames;18679533]That's what everyone said last year at this time about Mahomes, and values crashed 50% between Feb and October:)![/QUOTE]

Tell us you own Mahomes cards without telling us you own Mahomes cards :D

[QUOTE=SupermanBrandon;18679540]Careful giving this type of advice in todays world. You aren't accounting for the decline in the overall economy and the dip still left in the hobby. He very well may not decline at the rate of other QBs but the cards you buy today, can easily be less 8 months from now...that has nothing to do with performance.[/QUOTE]

To be honest, I don’t understand the economy’s impact on the hobby. I have read lots of posts about it on here from multiple people who seem to (including you), and I’m just not smart enough to understand how all the factors work together to uniformly impact the value of every card ever made. My guess is that it’s not a blanket principle.

I also acknowledge that my opinion was stated as a fact and without any qualifiers - which no one should ever do. Mea culpa for that and thank you for pointing it out.

Issue for Burrow going ahead is what Mahomes deals with. The bar has been set very high. To appreciate, he’s got to exceed the bar. The run up to the bar just doesn’t do much for people. Both need to win a SB title.

The Mahomes index is down 50% since training camp ended despite putting together an MVP season in a year where people were predicting the demise of the Chiefs.

His cards like Allen, Jackson, and Herbert are overpriced. It's as if they all won a couple
Super Bowls already. Not all these guys can get there let alone win it. It's not easy.
The one positive is that most "investors" (not collectors) have short term memories
and will chase and pump when things are going well. You just to know when to dump.

Burrow would have been a great sell after the Bills game last week.

I should add that if you can get out at a reasonable price, do it! SELL!!!!!!!!