Backyard Breaks getting loaded boxes?
 

Just saw this on twitter. Someone doing a data dive on some of the cards they have hit in the past year. Thought it could be an interesting discussion at the very least.

[url]https://twitter.com/ericwhiteback/status/1580921626216255490?s=46&t=PeL2EYnvs0qVpz1xXDhUKw[/url]

I saw that, I've also had suspicions.

I believe that individual who put in the work is also a member here

It's been obvious to the people paying attention for a while! These card companies are going ALL IN on breaking. It's how they can keep prices high. Why wouldn't they juice certain breakers? Panini just chose the wrong clowns.

[QUOTE=SupermanBrandon;18485157]It's been obvious to the people paying attention for a while! These card companies are going ALL IN on breaking. It's how they can keep prices high. Why wouldn't they juice certain breakers? Panini just chose the wrong clowns.[/QUOTE]

I mean, when you see the same players, usually top overall pick, getting their 1/1s pulled by the same breakers, you'd have to be pretty dumb to not see what's going on.

[QUOTE=dunkindutchmen;18485162]I mean, when you see the same players, usually top overall pick, getting their 1/1s pulled by the same breakers, you'd have to be pretty dumb to not see what's going on.[/QUOTE]

Whatnot launches a promotion that if the LeBron Logoman is opened on WhatNot...the lucky person gets a Lambo. And just like that...BYB rips it on WhatNot. TONS of promo for WhatNot, Panini, BYB. The math speaks for itself w/ these clowns. Either Panini is juicing them the boxes directly or they've paid off someone inside the company. Either way, it's not legit.

Also...ever noticed that the only people supporting them on IG/Socials...are mostly people that don't follow any card accounts, are private accounts...or they don't post any cards on their accounts.

Poor Drake never had a chance!

Panini’s plan - it’s a lot of bad things they were wishin and a wishin and a wishin on him.

Conclusion: Only do group breaks with Backyard Breaks

[QUOTE=eastbayak;18485192]Conclusion: Only do group breaks with Backyard Breaks[/QUOTE]

Until you realize that these loaded boxes/hits are going to people that they know.

[QUOTE=SupermanBrandon;18485157]It's been obvious to the people paying attention for a while! These card companies are going ALL IN on breaking. It's how they can keep prices high. Why wouldn't they juice certain breakers? Panini just chose the wrong clowns.[/QUOTE]

While the math is clear, can't do anything about it (except speak with your wallets) unless these guys left a paper trail.

They could have just had an verbal understanding with Panini. Both sides clearly benefit and no written agreement necessary.

Is the math clear ? The Lebron was the #1 pull of the year. The other hits fall in the top 20-50 for the year. Not that surprising that they would pull a lot of top 20-50 cards when they open more product than everyone else ? Picking and choosing the odds of them pulling exactly 4 cards once they’ve been pulled seems backwards.

We would be saying the same thing if they pulled the :

Lebron + any mix of:

Lamelo Nt immaculate or flawless logoman
Edwards nt immaculate or flawless logoman
Lebron single logoman from flawless
Jalen green nt logoman auto
Barnes nt logoman auto
Trey lance nt shield auto
Max jones nt shield auto
Lawrence nt shield auto

Etc…

Josh Luber ran interference before on Twitter in defense of these guys. Sports Card Investor who has said he is friends with Luber said on a recent video, he predicts the breakers who will be left standing are the “fun” breakers. Not sure what makes breaking in costumes or a half shirt is fun but that is another topic. That along with all the rare cards of top players they have pulled…the Trevor Kaboom attention, even though considered bad publicity…as we well aware all publicity is good publicity. To me it is painfully obvious.

[QUOTE=SupermanBrandon;18485157]It's been obvious to the people paying attention for a while! These card companies are going ALL IN on breaking. It's how they can keep prices high. Why wouldn't they juice certain breakers? Panini just chose the wrong clowns.[/QUOTE]

I've also noticed this, but didn't want to call it out. It's not just Panini, I've also noticed it with Leaf (no surprise given that Brian Gray is shady af).

[QUOTE=Asian62150;18485197]While the math is clear, can't do anything about it (except speak with your wallets) unless these guys left a paper trail.

[B]They could have just had an verbal understanding with Panini. Both sides clearly benefit and no written agreement necessary.[/B][/QUOTE]

That's how I would do it if I was Panini.

Of course they get gifted the correct boxes/cases by Panini. Crooks at Panini know where the big cards are. It's good business for Panini to have their biggest cards pulled and then shown to the biggest audience possible.

And then that card gets into the hands of Mr. Pump Bozo This Is The Greatest Card To Ever Exist himself, fashion icon Kenneth Goldin.

I thought everyone knew this?

[URL="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_truly_large_numbers"]Law of truly large numbers[/URL]

But influencer cases are also totally plausible.

Exactly, there is no counterfactual here.

Not saying that perhaps they aren't getting juiced but none of this analysis does anything to help us there. Just bad stats made to look like good stats.

[QUOTE=tmar214;18485224]Is the math clear ? The Lebron was the #1 pull of the year. The other hits fall in the top 20-50 for the year. Not that surprising that they would pull a lot of top 20-50 cards when they open more product than everyone else ? Picking and choosing the odds of them pulling exactly 4 cards once they’ve been pulled seems backwards.

We would be saying the same thing if they pulled the :

Lebron + any mix of:

Lamelo Nt immaculate or flawless logoman
Edwards nt immaculate or flawless logoman
Lebron single logoman from flawless
Jalen green nt logoman auto
Barnes nt logoman auto
Trey lance nt shield auto
Max jones nt shield auto
Lawrence nt shield auto

Etc…[/QUOTE]

Like the guy who ripped off the McDonalds monopoly game pieces, if you have insiders with the capability to print money and the means to manipulate it they will.

I'll say one of the shittiest realizations you make when you grow up into adulthood is just how rigged so many aspects of society really are.

[QUOTE=eastbayak;18485192]Conclusion: Only do group breaks with Backyard Breaks[/QUOTE]

or don't do them at all. it only took me 3 long years to get out of this terrible terrible addiction. happy to say I'm 3 months clean

[QUOTE=ninjabum87;18485340]Like the guy who ripped off the McDonalds monopoly game pieces, if you have insiders with the capability to print money and the means to manipulate it they will.

I'll say one of the shittiest realizations you make when you grow up into adulthood is just how rigged so many aspects of society really are.[/QUOTE]This 100000%.

The McDonald's thing was nuts.

Nothing is off limits.

The next Pope that is chosen, the fix will be in.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[QUOTE=ninjabum87;18485340]Like the guy who ripped off the McDonalds monopoly game pieces, if you have insiders with the capability to print money and the means to manipulate it they will.

I'll say one of the shittiest realizations you make when you grow up into adulthood is just how rigged so many aspects of society really are.[/QUOTE]

this is 100000% on point.

[QUOTE=ninjabum87;18485340]Like the guy who ripped off the McDonalds monopoly game pieces, if you have insiders with the capability to print money and the means to manipulate it they will.

I'll say one of the shittiest realizations you make when you grow up into adulthood is just how rigged so many aspects of society really are.[/QUOTE]

so much of the hobby has just become another form of gambling (especially breaking) and in the long run you never win. just like sports betting, casinos, etc

And yet the degenerate gamblers will continue to rip product anyways and panini will continue laughing

You'd have to be pretty naive to think better cases aren't being steered to the 'popular' breakers, one reason I stopped a while ago.

The response will then always be 'But they buy XX% of the product of course there's a good change they get the best hit!'

Rinse, repeat.

seems like all the most important thing to do is investigate the relationship between people hitting/selling the biggest hits and the breakers/panini.

Hard to imagine that there would be a scheme in place for one breaker to pull the biggest hits but not a scheme in place to make sure said 7 figure cards don't stay in house as well.

If you've never done it before, do yourself a favor and go watch the live stream of their breaks going on right now (just right on their website). They are ripping an insane amount of expensive basketball. I've never seen any breaker rip through this much expensive wax, this fast.

In example, just this afternoon they did the following:

41 hobby boxes (mix of prizm choice, hobby, optic choice, prizm white sparkle packs, 2019 optic contenders, box of noir, who knows what else they throw in)

$3,875 per spot, 8 spots (divisions)

1 person bought 4 spots ($15,500 are you kidding me...)
1 person bought 2 spots.
2 others filled it out then.

break opened at 1:46pm
filled at 2:04pm

That's $31,000 in revenue in 18 minutes.