Wind of Change: Shifting from Paper to Chrome
 

Sometime in the past six months or so, there had been a surge in Topps Chrome prices. The trend routinely gets mentioned in the various threads, but from what I can recall, we haven’t had a focused discussion on the matter.

The conventional wisdom is that the surge is due to an influx of new baseball collectors, who are crossing over from other sports—where they’re accustomed to shiny Panini products.

Is that it? Are there any other reasons why the tide shifted? Is Chrome dominance here to stay, or is it going to continue going back and forth and/or shifting to other products?

And if it is, indeed, driven by the newbies, is this crowd of hardcore collectors, here in the Blowout forum, staying the course and collecting what they like, Nd finding the lull in paper to be a great buying opportunity?

Personally, I like both paper and Chrome (and Topps and Bowman, for that matter). So, I collect from across the board—except that some levels of Chrome have become difficult to pursue. But I grab what I can.

I’m curious to hear your thoughts.


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I agree that the winds of change are in effect, but I think it’s been longer than six months. At least a year or so. I don’t think it’s just newbies. I think it may have started with them, but a large chunk of the hobby is joining in, and I don’t think it’ll change too much even after this current price dip scares away the flippers. Chrome cards look great, and usually have a smaller print run than their flagship counterpart. Flagship has some great parallels, but they can be hard to find in good condition, and can get pricey quick. I’ll definitely take a Flagship Independence Day over most chrome refractors, but there’s something great about gold and red refractors. Also, auto cards are a big plus for chrome, if that’s your thing. It’s definitely a nuanced issue, and I know there’s more to it than the things I’ve mentioned.

If we’re talking base vs base, I’ll take chrome. If it’s parallels vs refractors, then I have to go case by case with it.

[QUOTE=MiamiMarlinsFan;17348857]I agree that the winds of change are in effect, but I think it’s been longer than six months. At least a year or so. I don’t think it’s just newbies. I think it may have started with them, but a large chunk of the hobby is joining in, and I don’t think it’ll change too much even after this current price dip scares away the flippers. Chrome cards look great, and usually have a smaller print run than their flagship counterpart. Flagship has some great parallels, but they can be hard to find in good condition, and can get pricey quick. I’ll definitely take a Flagship Independence Day over most chrome refractors, but there’s something great about gold and red refractors. Also, auto cards are a big plus for chrome, if that’s your thing. It’s definitely a nuanced issue, and I know there’s more to it than the things I’ve mentioned.

If we’re talking base vs base, I’ll take chrome. If it’s parallels vs refractors, then I have to go case by case with it.[/QUOTE]



I pretty much agree with everything you said. Maybe my timeline is off a little, and is more swayed toward my Vlad-centric collecting.

But yes, parallel to parallel is case by case. Autos are a factor, as are SP/SSP photo variations—which are among my favorite offerings from Topps.


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I like chrome, but paper is timeless and isn't going anywhere. You can compare it across decades and eventually centuries. It has held up.

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This has been a long time coming, paper print runs have skyrocketed, chrome has gone up too but is produced significantly less. Chrome has refractors, paper has SP’s, but now Chrome has SP’s that are refractors. There has always been a 2 tiered price to Bowman Paper vs Chrome, paper blue /150 sells for 66% or less than blue refractor /150 of the same card. Sure the sneaker bois tend to buy chrome vs paper, but large portion of collectors think Chrome just looks nicer (especially refractors). I think the chrome preference is here to stay, and paper will be retail only before too long (or sold online if no retail in stores)

Imma go MoreToppsPlease for a sec-
Collectors gonna collect what they like.
This isn't about collectors. Its about flipping. When the chrome tide started rising, flippers from low end Larrys like me to the top rung of the food chain took notice. Why buy a flagship parallel that may go up 50% when a comparably priced chrome card promises 200%?
Probably 70% of the singles Ive bought in 2021 are chrome. In 2020 that number might have been 25%.
If everyone wants an Audi I don't want to be in business selling Gremlins.

Wind of Change: Shifting from Paper to Chrome
 

Hypothesis: Chrome is easier to gem, so there is more demand for raw to grade... and an 80% lower print run... thus driving up raw values... and because there is a market multiple perception of multiples for PSA 10 vs. raw that is untied from supply concerns while the backlog exists it has driven up the graded prices


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I collect flagship for a particular run I'm on, but outside of that chrome is my preference.

I think chrome base cards are awful but who doesn’t love refractors

I like the flagship parallels more. But have been grabbing more and more topps chrome autos.

Wind of Change: Shifting from Paper to Chrome
 

BTW to make this analog more comparable...

If we compare Chrome refractor in ‘17-18 (the year most of the players I collect are in)... their print run is 5-6k, and things like prism/Xfractor are 2-3k.

...compare those to flagship rainbow or gold, which are in the 2-3k print run range

Well flagship rainbow/gold both in raw and graded psa 9/10 are much much more expensive than the chrome refractor/prism/Xfractor cards at similar raw/grade levels

So in my mind the real biggest inversion is on base vs. base... and can’t much of that point to print runs being 1/5 in chrome? Plus as just a simple base the chrome is prettier?

Other things that seem to sell better in paper flagship? Any of the #d variations and the SP and SSP image variations... they all tend to sell for far more than similar or lower print run counterparts in chrome


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I think one ( of many ) factors not mentioned here yet - the recent spike in values have let collectors “trade up” ( sell ) their paper RC’s / sets / boxes for the Chrome counterparts, without coming out of pocket....

Topps Chrome is king... and here to stay.

Flagship parallels are great too.

dont forget about Sapphire

Sapphire Base cards are some of the best made cards around

I’ve never understood why PSA 10 US300 are cheaper than HMT55 PSA 10s. US300 is far harder to gem

[QUOTE=Soxfanguy;17349084]I’ve never understood why PSA 10 US300 are cheaper than HMT55 PSA 10s. US300 is far harder to gem[/QUOTE]

True, but yet there’s still 15,000+ of them out there.

I believe some others have mentioned it over the years that the main cause of the Flagship boom was that Trout did not have a Chrome version of his flagship. The logic was that all other Update's should be THE RC card to get for players. Never bought into it much, but I do like the Flagship Parallels long term *if it is their 1st Flagship card. Looks like it was more of a Flagship boom that could be the blip on the longterm radar. It's not so much that winds are shifting away from Paper as it is things are returning to how they've been for a few decades.

Whether it's Marvin Harrison/Drew Brees/Aaron Rodgers in FB; Kobe/Lebron/Curry in BSK; or even the same sport with Jeter/Cabrera/Mauer in BB, Chrome's have always sold better than their Flagship counterparts despite the higher Gem Rate.

[QUOTE=Soxfanguy;17349084]I’ve never understood why PSA 10 US300 are cheaper than HMT55 PSA 10s. US300 is far harder to gem[/QUOTE]

because you dont have HMT55's lol

honestly, there is no reason not to own both

[QUOTE=ThoseBackPages;17349141]because you dont have HMT55's lol[/QUOTE]


Believe it or not, I do

[QUOTE=Soxfanguy;17349084] US300 is far harder to gem[/QUOTE]

This was my first thought as well - chrome cards are “sturdier” than paper cards, so more gems relative to total print run. Of course (as pointed out above), paper print run is generally higher than chrome, so that adds another layer to consider.

As someone that got back into this a year or so ago, I dislike how many variations there are on Topps flagship. Very few of them are numbered, and it's very difficult to tell - other than by playing following the leader with market price - what the relative print runs are on different cards without doing a ton of research. Topps Chrome and Bowman Chrome have very, very clear print runs in comparison, since almost all of the key parallels are numbered and there are very few unnumbered SSP cards.

Plus shiny things look nice and on card autos are awesome.

Always been a higher percentage of chrome for me. Gold refractors always seemed like steals compared to what people priced paper parallels at. That has changed now for the most part as market caught up. Paper parallels never get as much attention when trying to sell either. Someone playing well you get lots of offers on chrome parallels, and barely any sniffs on paper. Also not an SP or SSP guy. Give me a red, orange, or gold refractor any day.

It’s weird how people look at them so differently, one is really just a re-package/parallel of the other.

They both can easily be distributed in the same pack/product...and it wouldn’t be strange.

[QUOTE=MoreToppsPlease;17349517]It’s weird how people look at them so differently, one is really just a re-package/parallel of the other.

They both can easily be distributed in the same pack/product...and it wouldn’t be strange.[/QUOTE]


It’s what they do for heritage and stadium club, for instance ;)


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