10-12K to put into a card to hold right now, what are you choosing?
 

You're putting between 10-12K into one card right now, which one would you choose?

1. 1986 Fleer #57 Michael Jordan PSA 8-8.5
2. 1948 Leaf #79 Jackie Robinson PSA 2-2.5
3. 1954 Topps #128 Hank Aaron PSA 7
4. 1989 Bowman Tiffany #220 Ken Griffey Jr. PSA 10
5. 2018 Topps #150 Shohei Ohtani Black PSA 8
6. 2000 Bowman Chrome #236 Tom Brady PSA 10
7. 1951 Bowman #253 Mickey Mantle SGC 3
8. 1951 Bowman #305 Willie Mays SGC5
9. 2013 Bowman Chrome Black Refractor Auto #47 Aaron Judge BGS 9.5/10

Long or short term hold? Looking for a blue chip or something with big payoff potential? What’s your risk tolerance?

[QUOTE=MiamiMarlinsFan;19953594]Long or short term hold? Looking for a blue chip or something with big payoff potential? What’s your risk tolerance?[/QUOTE]

Blue-chip with a long term hold of 10-15 years.

This would be funded only from moving cards, personal expenses are squared away and I have other cards to move if something catastrophic occurred.

1 or 9 but that’s me.

#2 - the leaf Robinson

Hank 7, if centered.

Would love to know folks thought process on this as well, why are you choosing those cards?

Mine have room for milestones to still be hit.

Jordan will get a necro bump when he passes (decades from now).

Judge gets a 500-600-700? hr bump.

Plus I like them the best.

Ohtani black.

Somebody who’s dead.


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[QUOTE=ScooterD;19953632]#2 - the leaf Robinson[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=SleepyWill;19953636]Would love to know folks thought process on this as well, why are you choosing those cards?[/QUOTE]

Jackie’s legacy and place in the history of sports and civil rights will remain constant or increase. Plus - his early demise nearly rules out any pitfalls that would kill future values (steroids, inappropriate scandals, etc).

These same reasons are also why my next choices would be the 54 Aaron and 51 Mays (in that order).

I collect modern and ultra modern, so I’m naturally inclined to go Ohtani or Judge. The vintages cards have fully matured and will now just see steady gains in perpetuity. Judge and Ohtani still have room for growth. Also, the vintage cards are widely available, a rare Ohtani or Judge could suddenly dry up and become a ghost, causing a big spike in demand/value. Second generation collectors haven’t even gotten into the Ohtani/Judge market. Bigger risk involved with the younger names on the list though.

Why not a Goudey Ruth? He's still got a better claim to GOAT status than several of those guys.

Pick someone that is long dead where nothing negative can come out about them. I went with Jackie as he will always be an iconic figure.

The Ohtani black but at that price that needs to be a PSA 9.

probably some Sweet Pete!

Why Hank Aaron?

Great player and HOF but the one record he held has been broken and he wasn't the first black player like Robinson. The only thing that made him stand out from all the other great players of his era was the HR Record which even by his own words belongs to someone else now regardless what you or I think of him or how he did it. 100 yrs from now Aaron will be remembered as a great athlete who once upon a time broke a record that was later broken.

[QUOTE=NYRE2PECT;19953652]Somebody who’s dead.


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This right here. So much can wrong with Jordan Ohtani Judge

To get the best balance of highest condition/oldest card, I’d go with the Hank Aaron as the safest and most conservative investment. It also benefits from being PSA graded.

Judge is the riskiest choice long term. I like Judge--I became a fan when I followed the Yankees last season. But there sure is a lot of recency bias on these boards.

In the long run, is Judge even a top 5 player on his own team, historically speaking? He's got a ways to go to pass Ruth, Mantle, DiMaggio, and Gehrig. Has he passed Jeter? Yogi Berra? Obviously he's a more dominating offensive force than Jeter ever was, but zero WS wins? Yankees are judged on post season success too.

His production has been amazing over the past few seasons, but he's into his 30's now and has a very large frame. Decline is coming, and that's when card values usually see a drop, even for the great players. Now is probably the worst time to be buying Judge. Just my opinion, of course.

Pie Traynor Rookie Card.

Seriously, the answer is either a 1933 Goudey Babe Ruth #53 or 144 or a t206 Green or Red Ty Cobb.

[QUOTE=brewtown107;19953711]Judge is the riskiest choice long term. I like Judge--I became a fan when I followed the Yankees last season. But there sure is a lot of recency bias on these boards.

In the long run, is Judge even a top 5 player on his own team, historically speaking? He's got a ways to go to pass Ruth, Mantle, DiMaggio, and Gehrig. Has he passed Jeter? Yogi Berra? Obviously he's a more dominating offensive force than Jeter ever was, but zero WS wins? Yankees are judged on post season success too.

His production has been amazing over the past few seasons, but he's into his 30's now and has a very large frame. Decline is coming, and that's when card values usually see a drop, even for the great players. Now is probably the worst time to be buying Judge. Just my opinion, of course.[/QUOTE]
Maybe...but people have been discussing his "pending decline" for 4 years now..and he has only gotten better. Also he's avoiding injuries. He's the most prolific power hitter in MLB history and having an epic year. Do you think he gets to 550 or 600 + HRs for his career? How many MVPs? Tough to call.

[QUOTE=Cracktoast;19953700]Why Hank Aaron?

Great player and HOF but the one record he held has been broken and he wasn't the first black player like Robinson. The only thing that made him stand out from all the other great players of his era was the HR Record which even by his own words belongs to someone else now regardless what you or I think of him or how he did it. 100 yrs from now Aaron will be remembered as a great athlete who once upon a time broke a record that was later broken.[/QUOTE]


Aaron still has the all-time RBI, XBH and Total Base records. No one is breaking those.


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Father time always wins. He's now 33 years old and still has not reached 350 home runs. It's questionable that he gets to 500 home runs, if you're being realistic. You have to assume good health for the next several seasons and very little decline as he passes age 35. And that's to reach 500. I'd say he has a 50-50 chance at 500. Which is pretty good! No chance at 600 or 700. He started too late. I like Judge as a player, but he's the flavor of the moment.

Jackie is the only one who is bona fide American history, so assuming it will still be legal to speak about what he did in a couple of years, I'll go with Jackie every day.

Jackie is my answer as well.

[QUOTE=brewtown107;19953735]Father time always wins. He's now 33 years old and still has not reached 350 home runs. It's questionable that he gets to 500 home runs, if you're being realistic. You have to assume good health for the next several seasons and very little decline as he passes age 35. And that's to reach 500. I'd say he has a 50-50 chance at 500. Which is pretty good! No chance at 600 or 700. He started too late. I like Judge as a player, but he's the flavor of the moment.[/QUOTE]
Ok well I respectully disagree. He will be at around 370 HRs at the end of this season at age 33. Only 130 more to 500? That's easy. He only needs to average 37.5 HRs per year for his age 34 35 36 and 37 seasons to get to 500 (yet he usually hits over 50). 500 HRs is 95 percent. Now 600 or more is more like 50-50.

1952 Topps Jackie

I am thinking of getting a lower grade 1951 Mantle. His true RC for a fraction of the price of his 1952 Topps card in poor condition. No brainer for me.

oops...

[QUOTE=Zoop;19953738]Jackie is the only one who is bona fide American history, so assuming it will still be legal to speak about what he did in a couple of years, I'll go with Jackie every day.[/QUOTE]

The only figure I'd put above Jackie, though he wasn't on this list, is Ruth. Dropping 5 figures on any modern player seems like a great way to lose 5 figures.

[QUOTE=Cracktoast;19953700]Why Hank Aaron?

Great player and HOF but the one record he held has been broken and he wasn't the first black player like Robinson. The only thing that made him stand out from all the other great players of his era was the HR Record which even by his own words belongs to someone else now regardless what you or I think of him or how he did it. 100 yrs from now Aaron will be remembered as a great athlete who once upon a time broke a record that was later broken.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=jhssketchcards;19953722]Aaron still has the all-time RBI, XBH and Total Base records. No one is breaking those.


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Thank you for correcting the disseminated misinformation.

Also wanted to throw out that a nice vintage Jim Thorpe card would be for my consideration.

10-12K to put into a card to hold right now, what are you choosing?
 

[QUOTE=GabrielCards;19953745]Ok well I respectully disagree. He will be at around 370 HRs at the end of this season at age 33. Only 130 more to 500? That's easy. He only needs to average 37.5 HRs per year for his age 34 35 36 and 37 seasons to get to 500 (yet he usually hits over 50). 500 HRs is 95 percent. Now 600 or more is more like 50-50.[/QUOTE]


Plus he will get that WS win within that timeframe. Baseball will not allow it any other way. When that happens….to the mooooon!!!


My vote is for the Willie. He’s probably, if not, the best player baseball has ever had. When his talents finally are respected/realized on a broader spectrum of collectors his prices will adjust higher. His adjusted for era WAR tells us he is the best.

BUT if you want the most upside in your 10year timeframe, Judge is the answer. Ohtani’s prices do not have as much room for growth as Judges do.


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I personally would stay away from any modern player. Look how much Trouts cards have dropped versus peak prices. How many “invested” in him?
These guys are all one drug test, scandal, arrest, or Aaron Hernandez-style crime away from hobby destruction. No one saw the Wander Franco fallout coming and many lost big on him too.
Judge and Ohtani (ask great as they are) are still not immune to injuries as well. Ohtani is coming off his 2nd TJ. Judge has injury history, although both are playing at unreal levels now… but we’ve seen it too many times before where a guy misses 3-4 seasons with things like wrist, leg or other “small” injuries that rob them of production.

For me the safe play is HOF guys or Pokemon. You’re never going to catch a Charizard in a court room.


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If Father Time always wins, did the guys over 600 home runs average 50 a year and fizzle out at 33 years old? Or were they all playing at 17 years old?

[QUOTE=brewtown107;19953682]Why not a Goudey Ruth? He's still got a better claim to GOAT status than several of those guys.[/QUOTE]

Just speaking strictly rookie cards at the moment.

[QUOTE=Cracktoast;19953700]Why Hank Aaron?

Great player and HOF but the one record he held has been broken and he wasn't the first black player like Robinson. The only thing that made him stand out from all the other great players of his era was the HR Record which even by his own words belongs to someone else now regardless what you or I think of him or how he did it. 100 yrs from now Aaron will be remembered as a great athlete who once upon a time broke a record that was later broken.[/QUOTE]

Tell me you don't understand baseball history without telling me you don't understand baseball history. :coffee:

[QUOTE=SleepyWill;19953805]Just speaking strictly rookie cards at the moment.[/QUOTE]

Why is the Jordan card on the list then? :p

I'm honestly surprised that Jordan/Mays are receiving 3 votes combined.

With how crazy the 86' Fleer set went 2021-23 and Mays being considered by most as the most complete player of all time.

I always enjoy these threads, and thankfully no one is complaining about how sports cards are a bad investment, blah blah blah. yea, they all have a point but the idea of this thread is ASSUME spending free money on these...what would you pick.

Personally I would prefer a 33 goudey ruth....

Best upside is an active player, but also the greatest downside/risk. So its really a question of risk tolerance.

No real wrong answers here...i think for the list i would pick the 48 leaf jackie or a 51bowman mantle...true rookie cards....

I also think a t206 green portrait cobb is a great choice and prices are a bit softer now.

Going to attempt to flip 4 cards into one from the list above.

Right now I'm leaning Robinson, Jordan, Mantle, Mays, Aaron, Ohtani.

But obviously it will come down to price, availability, trade value, and card appeal.

2 Ohtani very low pop SSSPs
1 Mookie very low pop SSSP
1 Mookie BC auto

[QUOTE=oldgoldy97;19953789]If Father Time always wins, did the guys over 600 home runs average 50 a year and fizzle out at 33 years old? Or were they all playing at 17 years old?[/QUOTE]

How many of them faced 100 mph sliders? This is a different era. If Judge has Bonds-like production in his late 30s against this era's pitching, then people will have to seriously question whether he was doing other Bonds-like things. To be clear, I'm not suggesting that, which is why I believe he will decline like most guys do as he reaches his late 30s.

And seriously, you can't possibly dispute that Father Time always wins. It's sooner for some guys and later for others, but it always happens.

Griffey

I have Brady or I would take that

I don’t want anything that isn’t a 10

[QUOTE=SleepyWill;19953813]I'm honestly surprised that Jordan/Mays are receiving 3 votes combined.

With how crazy the 86' Fleer set went 2021-23 and Mays being considered by most as the most complete player of all time.[/QUOTE]

I primarily collect basketball and wouldn’t waste funds on a 86-87 Fleer Jordan at current market rate prices. No matter how iconic the card is, it’s widely available (I say this as someone who owned a copy in the past).

Probably none of the cards listed, Instead id go with nicest goudey Ruth I could find..for the poll went with Jordan though Jackie was a.close 2nd.

I would also consider a higher grade 55 Clemente RC. From a cultural perspective, he's up there (or close) with Jackie and Babe and was active more recently than either. I dont think 12k gets into a 7 anymore, but a strong 6 can be had for maybe a bit more than half your budget.

Personally I don't think you can go wrong either most of those choices and as much as I love the 86F MJ, I'd spring for an on card auto in a Bulls uni, if they can be had for 10-12k still.

Of your options listed, I voted for the 51B Mick. Mantle is money in the bank and that card has done nothing but increase in value as far as I can remember. For perspective, I thought I slightly overpaid for a decently centered, well registered, no printer lines copy back in 2017-18. It was a PSA 2 and I think I paid 4-4500. I don't remember which. I flipped it for a small profit a year or so later. If I had held, id be at least double my money, probably more.

Figured I'd include pop reports as well.

No idea how to pull SGC reports and I can't find 2013 Bowman Chrome Black autos, if anyone can find I'll add.

[URL="[url=https://flic.kr/p/2rfke87][img]https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/54639793960_79c7704899_z.jpg[/img][/url][url=https://flic.kr/p/2rfke87]Pop report[/url] by [url=https://www.flickr.com/photos/193489301@N07/]William Stokinger[/url], on Flickr"][url=https://flic.kr/p/2rfke87][img]https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/54639793960_79c7704899_z.jpg[/img][/url][url=https://flic.kr/p/2rfke87]Pop report[/url] by [url=https://www.flickr.com/photos/193489301@N07/]William Stokinger[/url], on Flickr[/URL]

When referring to the 2018 Topps Ohtani black, you're actually referring to #700, right?

[QUOTE=eastbayak;19953848]When referring to the 2018 Topps Ohtani black, you're actually referring to #700, right?[/QUOTE]

Good catch!

[QUOTE=SleepyWill;19953856]Good catch![/QUOTE]

There's a PSA 9 available on eBay for ~$9.3k (might be able to negotiate an off-eBay deal to save on fees plus a little more, should you go that route).

I know he's not on your list but you might want to consider adding a licensed 09-10 Stephen Curry on-card rookie auto to the list (might even be able to add it along with another card on your list for $10-$12k).

[QUOTE=brewtown107;19953819]How many of them faced 100 mph sliders? This is a different era. If Judge has Bonds-like production in his late 30s against this era's pitching, then people will have to seriously question whether he was doing other Bonds-like things. To be clear, I'm not suggesting that, which is why I believe he will decline like most guys do as he reaches his late 30s.

And seriously, you can't possibly dispute that Father Time always wins. It's sooner for some guys and later for others, but it always happens.[/QUOTE]
And none of them were anywhere near the giant athletic specimen that Judge is with his nutrition and training regimen. It's all relative...

[QUOTE=Cracktoast;19953700]Why Hank Aaron?

Great player and HOF but the one record he held has been broken and he wasn't the first black player like Robinson. The only thing that made him stand out from all the other great players of his era was the HR Record which even by his own words belongs to someone else now regardless what you or I think of him or how he did it. 100 yrs from now Aaron will be remembered as a great athlete who once upon a time broke a record that was later broken.[/QUOTE]

Aaron rounding the bases while those fans run on the field might be the most iconic moment in baseball history caught on film. It's either that or Willie Mays' catch. I don't think that changes anytime soon.

[QUOTE=oldgoldy97;19953789]If Father Time always wins, did the guys over 600 home runs average 50 a year and fizzle out at 33 years old? Or were they all playing at 17 years old?[/QUOTE]


This is different today. Men age differently now with the advances in sports medicine/technology.

Take a look at real pics of Babe Ruth in his 30’s and he looks easily in his 50’s.

Tom Brady performed at an elite level into his 40’s. As long as a guy isn’t getting hammered/hardcore partying, and is adhering to a nutritional diet, his stock will go farther.


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My only real concern in going the vintage path is will the Gen-Z generation care / know who those players are in 10-15 years?

I've been to a few shows recently in the Boston area and have heard kids in their 20's outright say they have no idea who Ruth, Gehrig, Mays, and Aaron are.

I'm 41 now and a long-term hold would likely (obviously not 100%) mean I would be selling this card when I'm in my mid to late 50's or 60's.

[QUOTE=SleepyWill;19953923]I'm 41 now and a long-term hold would likely (obviously not 100%) mean I would be selling this card when I'm in my mid to late 50's or 60's.[/QUOTE]

The answer is Jackie as he will forever have the most cultural significance. You have to think of the avatar of who is going to buy this from you in 20+ years. Will they even care about Mays or Aaron or Brady or even Ohtani?

[QUOTE=SleepyWill;19953921]My only real concern in going the vintage path is will the Gen-Z generation care / know who those players are in 10-15 years?

I've been to a few shows recently in the Boston area and have heard kids in their 20's outright say they have no idea who Ruth, Gehrig, Mays, and Aaron are.[/QUOTE]

Many millennials don't even care about vintage. Unfortunately, most of those who actually do will have likely kicked the bucket in 15 years.

Jordan is like gold. Always will go up

So buy gold or Jordan

[QUOTE=SleepyWill;19953921]My only real concern in going the vintage path is will the Gen-Z generation care / know who those players are in 10-15 years?

I've been to a few shows recently in the Boston area and have heard kids in their 20's outright say they have no idea who Ruth, Gehrig, Mays, and Aaron are.[/QUOTE]

I am confident people will care about the greats of the game in 10-15 years. They always will.

Every generation says the same thing. Our parents wondered if we would care about Hank Aaron and Jackie Robinson. Just like their parents wondered if they would care about Ty Cobb and Babe Ruth.

Yet here we are, and every generation cares about all of those guys, whether they saw them play or not. The current generation will be no different. Eventually, they all age into maturity and appreciation for the sport and its history. That has never failed to happen.

if you're asking about it odds are you shouldn't be doing it

[QUOTE=boxbuster7;19953972]if you're asking about it odds are you shouldn't be doing it[/QUOTE]

S&P 500 :)!

[QUOTE=towerymt;19953974]S&P 500 :)![/QUOTE]

Thoughts on AIQ? Have been loving them for a bit ;)

[QUOTE=towerymt;19953974]S&P 500 :)![/QUOTE]

Yeah, don't let the fact that the P stands for "Poor's" fool you. 10k USD can turn into real money if you aren't "investing" in baseball cards.

I'd go for the Judge

I actually feel his cards are undervalued relative to what he's done and long term I think that card will do very well (color match, numbered to 35, good condition, etc)

I might catch a flogging for not going with one of the vintage options but at the end of the day those are all (somewhat) readily available and the Judge won't come up very often

why numbered to 35

[QUOTE=boxbuster7;19954033]why numbered to 35[/QUOTE]

[IMG]https://i.imgur.com/BYMHn8s.png[/IMG]

[IMG]https://i.imgur.com/mKxj5WZ.png[/IMG]

I'm assuming this is the one the post is talking about

Is there a different one?

[QUOTE=SleepyWill;19953921]My only real concern in going the vintage path is will the Gen-Z generation care / know who those players are in 10-15 years?

I've been to a few shows recently in the Boston area and have heard kids in their 20's outright say they have no idea who Ruth, Gehrig, Mays, and Aaron are.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=eastbayak;19953928]Many millennials don't even care about vintage. Unfortunately, most of those who actually do will have likely kicked the bucket in 15 years.[/QUOTE]

This is my thought process too.

You just have to say Jackie, and people know you mean Robinson

if people are worried that people will forget:

Ruth
Jackie
or
Mantle

i dont know what to tell you

[QUOTE=kipgen;19954039][IMG]https://i.imgur.com/BYMHn8s.png[/IMG]

[IMG]https://i.imgur.com/mKxj5WZ.png[/IMG]

I'm assuming this is the one the post is talking about

Is there a different one?[/QUOTE]

honestly I just glanced at the list of cards and then rolled my eyes but ya thats a solid choice for the price

I just find it funny that nobody here really knows the OP and it seems kind of disingenuous to give them advice without knowing their financial situation

People haven’t forgotten Anson, Kelly, Brouthers or Keefe either.

[QUOTE=ThoseBackPages;19954068]You just have to say Jackie, and people know you mean Robinson[/QUOTE]

I picture him when people say Jackie. :p

[IMG]https://www.floridamemory.com/fpc/mosaic/ms26109.jpg[/IMG]

when spending five figures on a sports card do you really want to have to explain what it is?

[QUOTE=OhioLawyerF5;19954079]I picture him when people say Jackie. :p

[IMG]https://www.floridamemory.com/fpc/mosaic/ms26109.jpg[/IMG][/QUOTE]

hahaha