New Bowman Chrome prospect autos are cratering. What will follow?
 

2022 Bowman Chrome prices are tanking to the point that I think there are potential deals. However, to what extent is this trying to catch a falling knife in a bear market?

Some base chrome auto prices that are shocking to me less than a month after release:

Cristian Vaquero - frequently selling below $100 for a base chrome auto. Was the consensus #1/#2 signing in the class

Roderick Arias -- under $120 for the Yankee that was considered #1/#2 in the class

Anthony Gutierrez #6, with an impressive debut. High ceiling bat--under $50 for chrome autos

Samuel Munoz #7 prospect in the class, had a stellar debut, and is only commanding ~$40 per chrome auto, despite being on the Dodgers

Simon Juan -- unimpressive debut, but a Top 20 international signing on a popular team, with an impressive blend of tools. Under $25.

Mason Auer -- would appear to be a high ceiling center field prospect, on pace to be 22 in AA, with power and speed combo. $30 for a chrome auto?

I deliberately excluded any sort of scouting or batted ball data--for instance, I don't think Gutierrez is as good as his line, or Arias as bad as his batted ball data. But a small sample size in a DSL/complex during the debut year would not historically drastically alter prices, regardless.

For comparison (and from memory):

Luis Rodriguez - top 5 int'l prospect on the Dodgers with unimpressive debut - $250. Cristhian Hernandez was #6 to the Cubs, and settled around $250. More than double any 2022 prospect except Chourio.

Pedro Pineda settled at $40-45 for base chrome autos despite being the #13 overall prospect, a middling debut, and on a relatively unpopular team.

Victor Acosta - #19 prospect, solid DSL debut-- went for close to $80 per base chrome auto.

Cristian Santana - a guy compared to Placido Polanco, was $55-60 as the #14 ranked int'l prospect with the Tigers.

Essentially any prospect that was considered a top 20 signing in 2021 was $40+ for a sustained period of time (Bleis, Peguero, Cappe, Pedro Leon).

Moving back a year to 2020. Puason was ~$200 out of the gate as a prospect viewed in the same range as Vaquero. Erick Pena cost the same as 2022 Roderick Arias, despite having less hype and being on the Royals. Bayron Lora was $200+ at release.

In 2021, Vaquero would have been $250+ at release, Arias would easily have been $350. Someone like Simon Juan would have been viewed more like Pineda and sold for twice as much.

There wasn't a prospect anywhere near Chourio's production in the past Bowman Chrome cycles, but he's trading at sub-Wander Franco 2019 level prices for a guy who was a relatively similar level prospect.

So, underlying interest in the prospects has eroded to the point that a top international chrome auto is $100 (Vaquero) instead of $250 (Cristhian Hernandez), yet box prices continue to rise. The concept of dozens of people sharing the cost in team breaks to mask the overall inflated prices has been discussed ad nauseum, so I won't dive into it.

We are closing in on pre-Covid 2019 chrome prices-when a high ceiling 1st round bat was available for under $80, and a moderately interesting prospect like Alek Thomas, was available for under $30.

If you're confident in your player selections, and you believe the Roderick Arias hype, are you buying every single chrome auto that hits the market at current prices, knowing they would have cost 2.5x more last season? Or has the macro-level completely eroded support and driven you out of the game? Because it takes a LOT of people staying on the sidelines to see this type of price reduction across the board. If you're holding wax, wouldn't the smart decision be to dump it as quickly as possible?

Healthy and if it holds through spring it may help reset all that ridiculous bs
The last couple years these guys all had MLB MVPs baked into their A ball prices.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

They were way too inflated to begin with

People starting to come to their senses

So basically back to what things use to be, only TOP dogs reached $100+ base autos pre MLB.

They’ve been over the past 2 Years, very pricey relative to their very high risk. Hopefully this segment is having a much needed price correction, without further dragging down everything around it

[QUOTE=stormshadow815;18602516]So basically back to what things use to be, only TOP dogs reached $100+ base autos pre MLB.[/QUOTE]

That is pretty much what I was thinking. Get back to some sort of normality in terms of the top guys prices. For years it was right at $100 for the top guys but the jumbo case prices were $800-1200 then. If the prices on the secondary market are way down from 2020-present then the wax prices need to follow.

I think there are some good buys. Prices may go down further when Draft comes out.

Many people need to flip cards immediately for cash, they don't have the time to wait 2-3 years for players to ascend BA top 100 or get called up.

They’re still too expensive. Way too much risk involved. Back in 2018 I was able to get an Austin Riley base 1st Bowman auto for $40. He was Atlanta’s #1 prospect at the time. The card was in gem mint condition too.

Sounds good to me. Now to wait for wax prices to catch up to the drop in the singles market.

What are the prints /25 selling for compared to the last few years?

This is where they should be. I was buying Michael Harris color autos for less than $50. But for every Michael Harris I hit I had 5x guys who flopped.

All these dudes suck and couldn’t hit their weight in Dominican summer ball

Agreed on all points but Bleis wasnt on anyone's radar until this past season, wasnt commanding even half of what he does now

I pulled and sold a Moniak base auto in December 2016. It sold for $110. Disregarding hindsight, is that about right for a 1-1 guy?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

You know, I was thinking prospecting was on its way down since the risk premium people are applying to essentially options contracts is far greater/lower depending on how you assess markets then I see $3600 bid on 10 cases of Jackson Holiday Bowman Draft and my jaw dropped. That’s $36000 over 10 cases and I wouldn’t pay half of that for the super and I’m an O’s fan with plenty of expendable income.

Everything that is not Topps Flagship and Chrome will start to crater. Sorry, but way to many parallels and short prints in this hobby. The only ones I want are from Flagship/Chrome. Nothing else matters. Sapphire? Nope. Heritage? Nope. Logofractor? Nope. It’s all trash.

[QUOTE=lauriontj;18603537]Everything that is not Topps Flagship and Chrome will start to crater. Sorry, but way to many parallels and short prints in this hobby. The only ones I want are from Flagship/Chrome. Nothing else matters. Sapphire? Nope. Heritage? Nope. Logofractor? Nope. It’s all trash.[/QUOTE]

Parallel exhaustion is very real in our hobby

[QUOTE=LVDan;18602441]Healthy and if it holds through spring it may help reset all that ridiculous bs
The last couple years these guys all had MLB MVPs baked into their A ball prices.
[/QUOTE]

This. Furthermore values are probably still too high now anyway.

As Topps releases more and more RC autos - and especially vet autos - into the myriad of flagship/TC products than ever before, it’s reasonable to think pre-RC autos will become increasingly less interesting and even more niche.

Plus flippers always burden themselves with the extra cost of grading, so the upfront costs are even higher when buying this stuff than just buying the cards themselves.

[QUOTE=LCM1223;18602496]They were way too inflated to begin with

People starting to come to their senses[/QUOTE]

Start looking for the old playas and bois to start inflating everything again in 12-18 months, most haven’t left.

[QUOTE=lauriontj;18603537]Everything that is not Topps Flagship and Chrome will start to crater. Sorry, but way to many parallels and short prints in this hobby. The only ones I want are from Flagship/Chrome. Nothing else matters. Sapphire? Nope. Heritage? Nope. Logofractor? Nope. It’s all trash.[/QUOTE]

It’s all fun to collect. Valuable? No. But it can still be enjoyable.

[QUOTE=MiamiMarlinsFan;18603684]It’s all fun to collect. Valuable? No. But it can still be enjoyable.[/QUOTE]

Except we’re not talking about collecting. We’re talking about value. Value will only hold in True Flagship/Chrome/Update. That’s it. Collect all the other stuff for the sake of collecting. But Flagship/Chrome/Update will hold the top spot for the most desired cards long term.

[QUOTE=VandyCards;18603148]I pulled and sold a Moniak base auto in December 2016. It sold for $110. Disregarding hindsight, is that about right for a 1-1 guy?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk[/QUOTE]

Justin Upton settled a few weeks after release in the $90-$120 range, after the first few popping at $250ish in 2006, so yeah, probably good.

I'd like to see the days of

$30 Jesus Montero
$30-$40 Mike (Giancarlo) Stanton
$20 Wiler Flores
$40-$50 Angel Villalona
$40 Oscar Tavares
$40-$50 Mookie Betts
$35-$45 Juan Soto
Oh...and
$10-$20 Mike Trout, getting outsold by Randal Grichuk

Take me back please

[QUOTE=imbluestreak23;18603799]I'd like to see the days of

$30 Jesus Montero
$30-$40 Mike (Giancarlo) Stanton
$20 Wiler Flores
$40-$50 Angel Villalona
$40 Oscar Tavares
$40-$50 Mookie Betts
$35-$45 Juan Soto
Oh...and
$10-$20 Mike Trout, getting outsold by Randal Grichuk

Take me back please[/QUOTE]


Those were the good days. We’ll get back there eventually. We need a good washout.

Nobody was money, everyone is focused on draft and chrome update. I’ll keep buying the guys u listed when everyone focus on draft.

And yet the wax prices keep going up.

To the OP, aside from market saturation of product after product + the cratering of values just as the market is doing it's downturn thing, another driver downwards is the fact that the majority of the guys you listed in the bottom for historical sales have absolutely sucked. International signings have not fared well recently, and I'm sure lots of guys lost lots of money on the guys you mentioned.

I mean wasn't Bayron Lora like 40-50% value of his settled price 1 week into his MiLB debut? LuRod crashed. Cristian Hernandez crashed, and those were the good guys you listed. International prospects who do not put up stats fall like rocks. In 2020/21, rocks fell from high rooftops.

Hoping to get back to the point where the top guys are like $100, not $1000.

[QUOTE=JWBlue;18602613]What are the prints /25 selling for compared to the last few years?[/QUOTE]

Which #/25?

The Orange Refractor, the Orange Wave, the Orange Mojo, the Orange Sapphire, the Orange Lava, the Orange Speckle, the Orange Logofractor, the Orange Starburst, the Orange Blaze, the Orange Dots, or the Orange Crackle?

[QUOTE=vwnut13;18603838]Which #/25?

The Orange Refractor, the Orange Wave, the Orange Mojo, the Orange Sapphire, the Orange Lava, the Orange Speckle, the Orange Logofractor, the Orange Starburst, the Orange Blaze, the Orange Dots, or the Orange Crackle?[/QUOTE]

You forgot orange shimmer.

$100 for a 1st base chrome auto and over $1000 for a player in Houdini's 100 case break used to be high end. Being part of the 10 case(2 autios) bidding tonight, I just add a 0 at the end to determine the 100 case(20 autos) prices. It's nuts. A good majority are going to be over $1000. The base chrome spots got out of hand as well and sadly, I assisted in that. I look at my 2013 Bowman Draft stacks and cringe. In 5-10 years, it'll be the same.

A lot to talk about here, but the most important point to the commenters in this thread is [B]prospects are not overpriced[/B]. At least not when compared to the young MLB stars, which themselves are not overpriced when compared to the prime aged stars.

You put one pretty big qualifier in there...except for Jackson Chourio. I expected his price to settle between $300-$400. Somewhere in the ballpark of Elly De La Cruz and Jordan Walker, ahead of Corbin Carroll and Gunnar Henderson. If I start seeing $200 Chourio BCA I might worry a little.

The BCA market is back to late 2019 levels. My Price Index was up from 155 to 160 from Nov. 2019-Nov. 2022. IIRC, in 2019 the market took a pretty early turn upwards, so we're probably level with December 2019 right now.

My BCA Price Index was off 46% year over year. I don't recall when Bowman Chrome released last year, but the market was falling pretty quickly in the 2nd half of 2021, so if it came out in October, the market probably lost a little between then and when I did my Price Index at the end of October. A drop of 50% seems about right.

I don't think it's a good idea at all to compare to last year's prices. We have been talking about this ad nauseam re: sellers still keeping prices at last year's levels. Buying is just the inverse of selling. The current market is what it is. We are likely past the seasonal nadir, so prices will start to rise until the end of Spring Training. Beyond that it's anybody's guess whether the market is higher or lower at this time next year.

[QUOTE=Archangel1775;18603846]$100 for a 1st base chrome auto and over $1000 for a player in Houdini's 100 case break used to be high end. Being part of the 10 case(2 autios) bidding tonight, I just add a 0 at the end to determine the 100 case(20 autos) prices. It's nuts. A good majority are going to be over $1000. The base chrome spots got out of hand as well and sadly, I assisted in that. I look at my 2013 Bowman Draft stacks and cringe. In 5-10 years, it'll be the same.[/QUOTE]

Good luck with Maxwell, nice snipe on the end.

[QUOTE=Gthompson1978;18603865]Good luck with Maxwell, nice snipe on the end.[/QUOTE]

Thanks, Gotta hope professional coaching helps him get in the best shape of his life and he stays disciplined.

[QUOTE=imbluestreak23;18603799]I'd like to see the days of

$30 Jesus Montero
$30-$40 Mike (Giancarlo) Stanton
$20 Wiler Flores
$40-$50 Angel Villalona
$40 Oscar Tavares
$40-$50 Mookie Betts
$35-$45 Juan Soto
Oh...and
$10-$20 Mike Trout, getting outsold by Randal Grichuk

Take me back please[/QUOTE]


Those were also the days where a base chrome auto of even the top guys in MLB didn’t crack $300-500 or so, right?

As a collector, I am all for a return to reasonable prospect prices. But for those investor types, lower intro prices also came along with lower ceilings, as I recall. Which is good, I think, because a lower overall ceiling of profits would be the thing that eventually corrects wax price/singles prices.

Also if you were paying $45 for Soto at release, you were overpaying lol.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[QUOTE=rwperu34;18603860]A lot to talk about here, but the most important point to the commenters in this thread is [B]prospects are not overpriced[/B]. At least not when compared to the young MLB stars, which themselves are not overpriced when compared to the prime aged stars.[/QUOTE]
:cry:

How many active big leaguers have their 1st Bowman Chrome Gold Auto selling for more than Jackson Chourio?

20? 50?

[QUOTE=Archangel1775;18603846]$100 for a 1st base chrome auto and over $1000 for a player in Houdini's 100 case break used to be high end. Being part of the 10 case(2 autios) bidding tonight, I just add a 0 at the end to determine the 100 case(20 autos) prices. It's nuts. A good majority are going to be over $1000. The base chrome spots got out of hand as well and sadly, I assisted in that. I look at my 2013 Bowman Draft stacks and cringe. In 5-10 years, it'll be the same.[/QUOTE]

Yeah but watch how many spots go unclaimed for the 100 caser when some of those bidders see the cost. They get caught up in the bidding fun and don’t do the math. I’ll sit and wait for a couple price drops on some guys.

[QUOTE=theshowandme;18603967]How many active big leaguers have their 1st Bowman Chrome Gold Auto selling for more than Jackson Chourio?

20? 50?[/QUOTE]
His last sale was a raw for $7k. So let’s call that a PSA/BGS 9.

Tatis PSA 9 $7900 this month, probably yes
Judge BGS 9.5 $16.8 late October, so a mint copy is likely > $7k
Harper BGS 9.5 $10.2k a month ago, maybe
Soto BGS 9.5 $26.4k a month ago, yes
Acuna BGS 9.5 $15.6k a month ago, yes
Julio BGS 9.5 $16k mid October, yes
Vlad BGS 9.5 $12k mid October, maybe
Mookie BGS 9.5 $12k late September, maybe
Wander PSA 9 $10k early November, yes
Ohtani obvious yes

Only other player I can think of would be Kershaw. I know I’d pay $7k for him.

BD prices will stay super high to justify the super high prices on wax. There’s, what, 10-12 Trout-level prospects coming out this week. Buy!

BC is a filler product.

[QUOTE=theshowandme;18603967]How many active big leaguers have their 1st Bowman Chrome Gold Auto selling for more than Jackson Chourio?

20? 50?[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=KhalDrogo;18603975]His last sale was a raw for $7k. So let’s call that a PSA/BGS 9.

Tatis PSA 9 $7900 this month, probably yes
Judge BGS 9.5 $16.8 late October, so a mint copy is likely > $7k
Harper BGS 9.5 $10.2k a month ago, maybe
Soto BGS 9.5 $26.4k a month ago, yes
Acuna BGS 9.5 $15.6k a month ago, yes
Julio BGS 9.5 $16k mid October, yes
Vlad BGS 9.5 $12k mid October, maybe
Mookie BGS 9.5 $12k late September, maybe
Wander PSA 9 $10k early November, yes
Ohtani obvious yes

Only other player I can think of would be Kershaw. I know I’d pay $7k for him.[/QUOTE]

Throw in Trout

So we can come up with 11 names out of 780 big leaguers. That is 1.41%

Jackson Chourio sucks

There is not any logic about BD card prices. People want the gamble.

[QUOTE=JWBlue;18604119]There is not any logic about BD card prices. People want the gamble.[/QUOTE]

Prospecting is where so much of the flipping action was at peak that it's been able to sustain it's own gambling niche. At least for now.

To each their own is fine by me, but there's no question this element continues to prop up wax prices.

[QUOTE=MiamiMarlinsFan;18603841]You forgot orange shimmer.[/QUOTE]

And the Orange Mega!

[QUOTE=HRderby22;18604244]Prospecting is where so much of the flipping action was at peak that it's been able to sustain it's own gambling niche. [B]At least for now.[/B]

To each their own is fine by me, but there's no question this element continues to prop up wax prices.[/QUOTE]

If it's still sustainable even now (is it?) what is going to stop it?

I think a lot of it has to do with the fact that across the board drafted players tend to do better in the aggregate (higher floor) than International guys. The ceiling of these international prospects bay be higher but sooooo many of these dudes never make it.

[QUOTE=Nung2019;18603968]Yeah but watch how many spots go unclaimed for the 100 caser when some of those bidders see the cost. They get caught up in the bidding fun and don’t do the math. I’ll sit and wait for a couple price drops on some guys.[/QUOTE]

Ha, I'm only claiming a few of my spots and may not even claim the auto spot. There is a big difference in my wallet between spending $100 for 10 cases and then forking over $1000 in the big one. It's not quite the math, it's simply being reasonable with spending in this great hobby.

[QUOTE=Nung2019;18603968]Yeah but watch how many spots go unclaimed for the 100 caser when some of those bidders see the cost. They get caught up in the bidding fun and don’t do the math. I’ll sit and wait for a couple price drops on some guys.[/QUOTE]

I did the math & ended up with a single Chrome spot. Buying spots in H's auction is a no guts, no glory situation.

I'm clearly a gutless coward.

Feel free to quote me on that out of context, it's probably true.

[QUOTE=mattglet;18604320]If it's still sustainable even now (is it?) what is going to stop it?[/QUOTE]

Valid point. It's of course just my personal opinion / observation, but I think it's just a slower bleed. During the boom most people could sustain the "gambling" by selling off the singles. If singles are in the toilet, there's a lot more reaching into the wallet that ultimately comes to an end at some point when the thrill wears off.

As they say with technology, there's 5 types of adopters. I think something similar can be applied here, albeit with different words.

1. Innovators
2. Early Adopters
3. Early Majority
4. Late Majority
5. Laggards

I don't exclude myself from any of it btw and am not pointing the finger. I'm just sharing a perspective on new release wax prices. I continue to buy and sell singles and continue to love the hobby.

[QUOTE=Boredlawyer;18602383]2022 Bowman Chrome prices are tanking to the point that I think there are potential deals. However, to what extent is this trying to catch a falling knife in a bear market?

Some base chrome auto prices that are shocking to me less than a month after release:

Cristian Vaquero - frequently selling below $100 for a base chrome auto. Was the consensus #1/#2 signing in the class

Roderick Arias -- under $120 for the Yankee that was considered #1/#2 in the class

Anthony Gutierrez #6, with an impressive debut. High ceiling bat--under $50 for chrome autos

Samuel Munoz #7 prospect in the class, had a stellar debut, and is only commanding ~$40 per chrome auto, despite being on the Dodgers

Simon Juan -- unimpressive debut, but a Top 20 international signing on a popular team, with an impressive blend of tools. Under $25.

Mason Auer -- would appear to be a high ceiling center field prospect, on pace to be 22 in AA, with power and speed combo. $30 for a chrome auto?

I deliberately excluded any sort of scouting or batted ball data--for instance, I don't think Gutierrez is as good as his line, or Arias as bad as his batted ball data. But a small sample size in a DSL/complex during the debut year would not historically drastically alter prices, regardless.

For comparison (and from memory):

Luis Rodriguez - top 5 int'l prospect on the Dodgers with unimpressive debut - $250. Cristhian Hernandez was #6 to the Cubs, and settled around $250. More than double any 2022 prospect except Chourio.

Pedro Pineda settled at $40-45 for base chrome autos despite being the #13 overall prospect, a middling debut, and on a relatively unpopular team.

Victor Acosta - #19 prospect, solid DSL debut-- went for close to $80 per base chrome auto.

Cristian Santana - a guy compared to Placido Polanco, was $55-60 as the #14 ranked int'l prospect with the Tigers.

Essentially any prospect that was considered a top 20 signing in 2021 was $40+ for a sustained period of time (Bleis, Peguero, Cappe, Pedro Leon).

Moving back a year to 2020. Puason was ~$200 out of the gate as a prospect viewed in the same range as Vaquero. Erick Pena cost the same as 2022 Roderick Arias, despite having less hype and being on the Royals. Bayron Lora was $200+ at release.

In 2021, Vaquero would have been $250+ at release, Arias would easily have been $350. Someone like Simon Juan would have been viewed more like Pineda and sold for twice as much.

There wasn't a prospect anywhere near Chourio's production in the past Bowman Chrome cycles, but he's trading at sub-Wander Franco 2019 level prices for a guy who was a relatively similar level prospect.

So, underlying interest in the prospects has eroded to the point that a top international chrome auto is $100 (Vaquero) instead of $250 (Cristhian Hernandez), yet box prices continue to rise. The concept of dozens of people sharing the cost in team breaks to mask the overall inflated prices has been discussed ad nauseum, so I won't dive into it.

We are closing in on pre-Covid 2019 chrome prices-when a high ceiling 1st round bat was available for under $80, and a moderately interesting prospect like Alek Thomas, was available for under $30.

If you're confident in your player selections, and you believe the Roderick Arias hype, are you buying every single chrome auto that hits the market at current prices, knowing they would have cost 2.5x more last season? Or has the macro-level completely eroded support and driven you out of the game? Because it takes a LOT of people staying on the sidelines to see this type of price reduction across the board. If you're holding wax, wouldn't the smart decision be to dump it as quickly as possible?[/QUOTE]

We’re in a recession now. This is usually the low point of the year as well. It’s expected.

TBF Vaquero's auto is $@#&ing AWFUL.

[QUOTE=hammertime;18604579]TBF Vaquero's auto is $@#&ing AWFUL.[/QUOTE]

His thousand yard stare death eyes aren't helping either. Dude looks like he just got back from WW1-era trench warfare.

Just an all-around ugly card.

I’m stoked people still have that kind of coin to blow on bad value projections on 10 cases… especially when it is for the “ability to claim 100 cases” at that same valuation. That’s maybe my favorite justification that ever appears.

But given it still happens it means there’s still either a lot of disposable income interested in cards out there (and by all means, buy what you like) or a lot of fish still making bad gambles (or a combination).

As for me- I think the larger issue is the regression of singles prices but the continued increase in wax prices at increased print runs. RW keeps some good numbers and I’m sure our relative single prices are on at least a proportionately similar path. It just costs a lot more per unit to get to them from a wax cracking perspective.

I just went though the bowman draft checklist, I don’t have a single
Prospect I want to buy that’s a 1st from me.

[QUOTE=yodastories;18604593]His thousand yard stare death eyes aren't helping either. Dude looks like he just got back from WW1-era trench warfare.

Just an all-around ugly card.[/QUOTE]


I’m losing it over here :cry:

[QUOTE=reddragonthe;18604829][B]I’m stoked people still have that kind of coin to blow on bad value projections on 10 cases… especially when it is for the “ability to claim 100 cases” at that same valuation. That’s maybe my favorite justification that ever appears.[/B]
.[/QUOTE]

Depends on your perspective. Jumbo boxes are sitting at $450 and jumbo cases at $3600. Some people would rather spend $3600 on 110-120 cases of their select player. The vast majority of members in Houdini's Bowman Draft case break know what they are getting into. He's been doing these for over a decade. Additionally, I would wager that many of the big guns run their own businesses and Houdini's break is a source of inventory. Which means it's probably also a write-off.

[QUOTE=mwash1983;18605145]I just went though the bowman draft checklist, I don’t have a single
Prospect I want to buy that’s a 1st from me.[/QUOTE]

Been tough since Bubba Starling retired? :) ;)

You can't compare new release pricing to older products. Everybody who has paid any attention to the price cycle knows there is a big premium the closer it is to release. I'd wait at least six weeks. Even then new pricing will still be in effect. There is a reason Jackson Chourio isn't in my Price Index for 2023.

Compare prices in Spring Training when everybody is hot, not just the guys in this product.

[QUOTE=Archangel1775;18605584]Been tough since Bubba Starling retired? :) ;)[/QUOTE]

I never pulled a Starling Auto and never bought one, knew to stay away from that one. This draft product is College heavy and a lot of the college guys in this are cheap senior signs or organizational players.

[QUOTE=mwash1983;18605845]I never pulled a Starling Auto and never bought one, knew to stay away from that one. This draft product is College heavy and a lot of the college guys in this are cheap senior signs or organizational players.[/QUOTE]

Depends on your strategy particularly if you plan to resell and the timing of it. Some of the college guys have a shorter path to The Show. But yeah, seems like the high potential young guns have already been outed and the entry point is high for them.

[QUOTE=Archangel1775;18605850]Depends on your strategy particularly if you plan to resell and the timing of it. Some of the college guys have a shorter path to The Show. But yeah, seems like the high potential young guns have already been outed and the entry point is high for them.[/QUOTE]

I actually found a guy I am going to buy, took me a while but I found one.

[QUOTE=mwash1983;18605856]I actually found a guy I am going to buy, took me a while but I found one.[/QUOTE]

It can take awhile. 102 Auto Prospects and 200 chrome prospects. Good luck!

One thing (and I may be the outlier) I like about Bowman Chrome is the actual rookie cards. Some times the picture used is a lot better than flagship and also offers just a different visual too. I have been buying some RC of guys who I think will have a bounce/breakout year next year. I have been getting /75 and less (non-auto) of these guys for really cheap. Throw in the SGC $9 grading special that I plan to use once I get them all in the mail, it could be a nice profit next season or two.

[QUOTE=reddragonthe;18604829]As for me- I think the larger issue is the regression of singles prices but the continued increase in [B]wax prices at increased print runs[/B]. RW keeps some good numbers and I’m sure our relative single prices are on at least a proportionately similar path. It just costs a lot more per unit to get to them from a wax cracking perspective.[/QUOTE]

There's still either a naïve or ignorant or even prey attitude towards modern (and especially ultra modern) wax and how it should properly be valued. There are currently plenty of wax "investors" who are just playing hot potato: buy in at initial prices, wait until someone spikes in prices, sell wax to either 1) someone else gambling that the wax will go higher or 2) someone who is gambling that their box is the lotto ticket they've been waiting for.

The problem with both of those scenarios is that you end up with Schrodinger's Wax: you can say there is (the possibility of) X or Y card in the box, but you need to count on the buyer to NOT realize the astronomical odds of pulling said card(s). Especially in this day and age where you relatively easily know what big hit cards have already been pulled - making your already astronomical odds of pulling even higher because the hits are already gone.

Yes all of this is inherently how the wax game is played. But until you have fewer degenerate gamblers, or at least people who do the proper research into what they are buying and whether or not their ROI comes even close to making sense, you will not see wax prices go down.

One can say the exact game can be played buying prospects as singles, and it's mostly true. But having the actual card in hand is an easier bet than a "what if" lottery ticket box of wax.

[QUOTE=Raleigh504;18605937]One thing (and I may be the outlier) I like about Bowman Chrome is the actual rookie cards. Some times the picture used is a lot better than flagship and also offers just a different visual too. I have been buying some RC of guys who I think will have a bounce/breakout year next year. I have been getting /75 and less (non-auto) of these guys for really cheap. Throw in the SGC $9 grading special that I plan to use once I get them all in the mail, it could be a nice profit next season or two.[/QUOTE]

Same here, from a collecting perspective I generally prefer Bowman Chrome rookie/veteran cards to the other Chrome.

Back to the OP for a moment… are 1st Bowman autos cratering or the prospects themselves cratering? The prices for the guys still in hype bubbles seem pretty high. Of course no one is paying big money for a Puason auto, he may never see the majors. That ship has sailed.

[QUOTE=mattglet;18605982]There's still either a naïve or ignorant or even prey attitude towards modern (and especially ultra modern) wax and how it should properly be valued. There are currently plenty of wax "investors" who are just playing hot potato: buy in at initial prices, wait until someone spikes in prices, sell wax to either 1) someone else gambling that the wax will go higher or 2) someone who is gambling that their box is the lotto ticket they've been waiting for.

The problem with both of those scenarios is that you end up with Schrodinger's Wax: you can say there is (the possibility of) X or Y card in the box, but you need to count on the buyer to NOT realize the astronomical odds of pulling said card(s). Especially in this day and age where you relatively easily know what big hit cards have already been pulled - making your already astronomical odds of pulling even higher because the hits are already gone.

Yes all of this is inherently how the wax game is played. But until you have fewer degenerate gamblers, or at least people who do the proper research into what they are buying and whether or not their ROI comes even close to making sense, you will not see wax prices go down.

One can say the exact game can be played buying prospects as singles, and it's mostly true. But having the actual card in hand is an easier bet than a "what if" lottery ticket box of wax.[/QUOTE]

You make a great point about wax investors driving up the price of products - they may know absolutely nothing about a product, but get it because “it’s hot.” Most retail shop owners are like that.

But you miss an important point about the beauty of sealed wax versus singles - sealed wax is like a mutual fund - you never know which individual player is going to get hot or succeed, but you have the chance to pull any of those players cards in sealed wax.

[QUOTE=hermanotarjeta;18606057]But you miss an important point about the beauty of sealed wax versus singles - sealed wax is like a mutual fund - [B]you never know[/B] which individual player is going to get hot or succeed, but you have the chance to pull any of those players cards in sealed wax.[/QUOTE]

Oh for sure, I do agree to an extent.

But realistically you "know" within 3-5 years if someone is going to succeed.

"Get hot" is just a flash in the pan and pricing always reflects it. Remember Aristides Aquino? (for some reason he was the person who immediately came to mind)

[QUOTE=mattglet;18606061]Oh for sure, I do agree to an extent.

But realistically you "know" within 3-5 years if someone is going to succeed.

"Get hot" is just a flash in the pain and pricing always reflects it. Remember Aristides Aquino? (for some reason he was the person who immediately came to mind)[/QUOTE]

Sealed wax does protect you against “flashes in the pain” - one guy comes and goes, another takes his place, keeping the value of sealed product intact. 2013-2016 bowman draft, products you know very well, are great examples of that.

[QUOTE=Raleigh504;18605937]One thing (and I may be the outlier) I like about Bowman Chrome is the actual rookie cards. Some times the picture used is a lot better than flagship and also offers just a different visual too. I have been buying some RC of guys who I think will have a bounce/breakout year next year. I have been getting /75 and less (non-auto) of these guys for really cheap. Throw in the SGC $9 grading special that I plan to use once I get them all in the mail, it could be a nice profit next season or two.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=rfgilles;18606036]Same here, from a collecting perspective I generally prefer Bowman Chrome rookie/veteran cards to the other Chrome.[/QUOTE]

I've always gravitated towards the poor man's paper. It was always cheaper in group breaks. I have over 100 Machado and about 25 Arenado and Harper paper rookie cards. What's interesting to me are the Bowman Chrome Rookie Card Autos. I learned in my first group break on Blowout(Player Draft) that selecting a Rookie Auto in the Top 12 was a big mistake. I was basically throwing money away. This last Bowman Chrome release, I've watched over 300 cases broken and have seen maybe 2 Wander Franco Autos and 0 J-Rod Autos pulled. I've always wondered if they are SP'd to less than 100 and always have been.

[QUOTE=yodastories;18604593]His thousand yard stare death eyes aren't helping either. Dude looks like he just got back from WW1-era trench warfare.

Just an all-around ugly card.[/QUOTE]

Ehhhhh....
[IMG]https://pbase.com/towerymt/image/173248325.jpg[/IMG]

[QUOTE=MiamiMarlinsFan;18606046]Of course no one is paying big money for a Puason auto, he may never see the majors. That ship has sailed.[/QUOTE]

Oh man, isn't that the guy that people were going to be the real deal instead of Dominguez?

Poor guy couldn't even crack a .500 OPS in A ball.

[QUOTE=Archangel1775;18606093]I've always gravitated towards the poor man's paper. It was always cheaper in group breaks. I have over 100 Machado and about 25 Arenado and Harper paper rookie cards. What's interesting to me are the Bowman Chrome Rookie Card Autos. I learned in my first group break on Blowout(Player Draft) that selecting a Rookie Auto in the Top 12 was a big mistake. I was basically throwing money away. This last Bowman Chrome release, I've watched over 300 cases broken and have seen maybe 2 Wander Franco Autos and 0 J-Rod Autos pulled. I've always wondered if they are SP'd to less than 100 and always have been.[/QUOTE]

They've always played games with the RC auto checklist in terms of missing parallels and SP base autos, but it's particularly bad in 2022 BC. I don't think Witt/Wander/Julio have anything besides gold/orange/red/super, maybe 50 base autos each, and a handful of B&W mini diamonds, and Wanders patch autos. And I don't think Wander even has nearly that much in terms of normal auto parallels.

If you guys can just mentally change the name of these myriad of products from Bowman to Bagholder, then this cardboard would make more sense from the investoooor mindset.