Backyard Breaks getting loaded boxes?
 

Just saw this on twitter. Someone doing a data dive on some of the cards they have hit in the past year. Thought it could be an interesting discussion at the very least.

[url]https://twitter.com/ericwhiteback/status/1580921626216255490?s=46&t=PeL2EYnvs0qVpz1xXDhUKw[/url]

I saw that, I've also had suspicions.

I believe that individual who put in the work is also a member here

It's been obvious to the people paying attention for a while! These card companies are going ALL IN on breaking. It's how they can keep prices high. Why wouldn't they juice certain breakers? Panini just chose the wrong clowns.

[QUOTE=SupermanBrandon;18485157]It's been obvious to the people paying attention for a while! These card companies are going ALL IN on breaking. It's how they can keep prices high. Why wouldn't they juice certain breakers? Panini just chose the wrong clowns.[/QUOTE]

I mean, when you see the same players, usually top overall pick, getting their 1/1s pulled by the same breakers, you'd have to be pretty dumb to not see what's going on.

[QUOTE=dunkindutchmen;18485162]I mean, when you see the same players, usually top overall pick, getting their 1/1s pulled by the same breakers, you'd have to be pretty dumb to not see what's going on.[/QUOTE]

Whatnot launches a promotion that if the LeBron Logoman is opened on WhatNot...the lucky person gets a Lambo. And just like that...BYB rips it on WhatNot. TONS of promo for WhatNot, Panini, BYB. The math speaks for itself w/ these clowns. Either Panini is juicing them the boxes directly or they've paid off someone inside the company. Either way, it's not legit.

Also...ever noticed that the only people supporting them on IG/Socials...are mostly people that don't follow any card accounts, are private accounts...or they don't post any cards on their accounts.

Poor Drake never had a chance!

Panini’s plan - it’s a lot of bad things they were wishin and a wishin and a wishin on him.

Conclusion: Only do group breaks with Backyard Breaks

[QUOTE=eastbayak;18485192]Conclusion: Only do group breaks with Backyard Breaks[/QUOTE]

Until you realize that these loaded boxes/hits are going to people that they know.

[QUOTE=SupermanBrandon;18485157]It's been obvious to the people paying attention for a while! These card companies are going ALL IN on breaking. It's how they can keep prices high. Why wouldn't they juice certain breakers? Panini just chose the wrong clowns.[/QUOTE]

While the math is clear, can't do anything about it (except speak with your wallets) unless these guys left a paper trail.

They could have just had an verbal understanding with Panini. Both sides clearly benefit and no written agreement necessary.

Is the math clear ? The Lebron was the #1 pull of the year. The other hits fall in the top 20-50 for the year. Not that surprising that they would pull a lot of top 20-50 cards when they open more product than everyone else ? Picking and choosing the odds of them pulling exactly 4 cards once they’ve been pulled seems backwards.

We would be saying the same thing if they pulled the :

Lebron + any mix of:

Lamelo Nt immaculate or flawless logoman
Edwards nt immaculate or flawless logoman
Lebron single logoman from flawless
Jalen green nt logoman auto
Barnes nt logoman auto
Trey lance nt shield auto
Max jones nt shield auto
Lawrence nt shield auto

Etc…

Josh Luber ran interference before on Twitter in defense of these guys. Sports Card Investor who has said he is friends with Luber said on a recent video, he predicts the breakers who will be left standing are the “fun” breakers. Not sure what makes breaking in costumes or a half shirt is fun but that is another topic. That along with all the rare cards of top players they have pulled…the Trevor Kaboom attention, even though considered bad publicity…as we well aware all publicity is good publicity. To me it is painfully obvious.

[QUOTE=SupermanBrandon;18485157]It's been obvious to the people paying attention for a while! These card companies are going ALL IN on breaking. It's how they can keep prices high. Why wouldn't they juice certain breakers? Panini just chose the wrong clowns.[/QUOTE]

I've also noticed this, but didn't want to call it out. It's not just Panini, I've also noticed it with Leaf (no surprise given that Brian Gray is shady af).

[QUOTE=Asian62150;18485197]While the math is clear, can't do anything about it (except speak with your wallets) unless these guys left a paper trail.

[B]They could have just had an verbal understanding with Panini. Both sides clearly benefit and no written agreement necessary.[/B][/QUOTE]

That's how I would do it if I was Panini.

Of course they get gifted the correct boxes/cases by Panini. Crooks at Panini know where the big cards are. It's good business for Panini to have their biggest cards pulled and then shown to the biggest audience possible.

And then that card gets into the hands of Mr. Pump Bozo This Is The Greatest Card To Ever Exist himself, fashion icon Kenneth Goldin.

I thought everyone knew this?

[URL="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_truly_large_numbers"]Law of truly large numbers[/URL]

But influencer cases are also totally plausible.

Exactly, there is no counterfactual here.

Not saying that perhaps they aren't getting juiced but none of this analysis does anything to help us there. Just bad stats made to look like good stats.

[QUOTE=tmar214;18485224]Is the math clear ? The Lebron was the #1 pull of the year. The other hits fall in the top 20-50 for the year. Not that surprising that they would pull a lot of top 20-50 cards when they open more product than everyone else ? Picking and choosing the odds of them pulling exactly 4 cards once they’ve been pulled seems backwards.

We would be saying the same thing if they pulled the :

Lebron + any mix of:

Lamelo Nt immaculate or flawless logoman
Edwards nt immaculate or flawless logoman
Lebron single logoman from flawless
Jalen green nt logoman auto
Barnes nt logoman auto
Trey lance nt shield auto
Max jones nt shield auto
Lawrence nt shield auto

Etc…[/QUOTE]

Like the guy who ripped off the McDonalds monopoly game pieces, if you have insiders with the capability to print money and the means to manipulate it they will.

I'll say one of the shittiest realizations you make when you grow up into adulthood is just how rigged so many aspects of society really are.

[QUOTE=eastbayak;18485192]Conclusion: Only do group breaks with Backyard Breaks[/QUOTE]

or don't do them at all. it only took me 3 long years to get out of this terrible terrible addiction. happy to say I'm 3 months clean

[QUOTE=ninjabum87;18485340]Like the guy who ripped off the McDonalds monopoly game pieces, if you have insiders with the capability to print money and the means to manipulate it they will.

I'll say one of the shittiest realizations you make when you grow up into adulthood is just how rigged so many aspects of society really are.[/QUOTE]This 100000%.

The McDonald's thing was nuts.

Nothing is off limits.

The next Pope that is chosen, the fix will be in.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[QUOTE=ninjabum87;18485340]Like the guy who ripped off the McDonalds monopoly game pieces, if you have insiders with the capability to print money and the means to manipulate it they will.

I'll say one of the shittiest realizations you make when you grow up into adulthood is just how rigged so many aspects of society really are.[/QUOTE]

this is 100000% on point.

[QUOTE=ninjabum87;18485340]Like the guy who ripped off the McDonalds monopoly game pieces, if you have insiders with the capability to print money and the means to manipulate it they will.

I'll say one of the shittiest realizations you make when you grow up into adulthood is just how rigged so many aspects of society really are.[/QUOTE]

so much of the hobby has just become another form of gambling (especially breaking) and in the long run you never win. just like sports betting, casinos, etc

And yet the degenerate gamblers will continue to rip product anyways and panini will continue laughing

You'd have to be pretty naive to think better cases aren't being steered to the 'popular' breakers, one reason I stopped a while ago.

The response will then always be 'But they buy XX% of the product of course there's a good change they get the best hit!'

Rinse, repeat.

seems like all the most important thing to do is investigate the relationship between people hitting/selling the biggest hits and the breakers/panini.

Hard to imagine that there would be a scheme in place for one breaker to pull the biggest hits but not a scheme in place to make sure said 7 figure cards don't stay in house as well.

If you've never done it before, do yourself a favor and go watch the live stream of their breaks going on right now (just right on their website). They are ripping an insane amount of expensive basketball. I've never seen any breaker rip through this much expensive wax, this fast.

In example, just this afternoon they did the following:

41 hobby boxes (mix of prizm choice, hobby, optic choice, prizm white sparkle packs, 2019 optic contenders, box of noir, who knows what else they throw in)

$3,875 per spot, 8 spots (divisions)

1 person bought 4 spots ($15,500 are you kidding me...)
1 person bought 2 spots.
2 others filled it out then.

break opened at 1:46pm
filled at 2:04pm

That's $31,000 in revenue in 18 minutes.

[QUOTE=90skid;18485508]If you've never done it before, do yourself a favor and go watch the live stream of their breaks going on right now (just right on their website). They are ripping an insane amount of expensive basketball. I've never seen any breaker rip through this much expensive wax, this fast.

In example, just this afternoon they did the following:

41 hobby boxes (mix of prizm choice, hobby, optic choice, prizm white sparkle packs, 2019 optic contenders, box of noir, who knows what else they throw in)

$3,875 per spot, 8 spots (divisions)

1 person bought 4 spots ($15,500 are you kidding me...)
1 person bought 2 spots.
2 others filled it out then.

break opened at 1:46pm
filled at 2:04pm

That's $31,000 in revenue in 18 minutes.[/QUOTE]

Pretty sure the amount they break was accounted for when they did this dive and it's not as much as people think.

[QUOTE=90skid;18485508]If you've never done it before, do yourself a favor and go watch the live stream of their breaks going on right now (just right on their website). They are ripping an insane amount of expensive basketball. I've never seen any breaker rip through this much expensive wax, this fast.

In example, just this afternoon they did the following:

41 hobby boxes (mix of prizm choice, hobby, optic choice, prizm white sparkle packs, 2019 optic contenders, box of noir, who knows what else they throw in)

$3,875 per spot, 8 spots (divisions)

1 person bought 4 spots ($15,500 are you kidding me...)
1 person bought 2 spots.
2 others filled it out then.

break opened at 1:46pm
filled at 2:04pm

That's $31,000 in revenue in 18 minutes.[/QUOTE]

what the hell? i mean, i guess these guys all probably knew the break was coming. that's a huge chunk of change to just...drop on a whim. though the industry is filled with degenerates and really rich people.

I have never bought into them, but I have watched them here and there on Tik Tok and seen some of their big hits. To me it is really impressive the audience they are building.

It has a Barstool feel to it and they are loud and boisterous and not for everyone. But you look at the business they are building even after some early mistakes like the TLaw Kaboom it is actually really impressive. It is way more entertainment that serious breaking and there is a huge audience for that. Good on them for building something.

Also I love Sports Card Radio, but this investigation seems like a dive into the conspiracy rabbit hole rather than the good work they usually produce.

[QUOTE=90skid;18485508]If you've never done it before, do yourself a favor and go watch the live stream of their breaks going on right now (just right on their website). They are ripping an insane amount of expensive basketball. I've never seen any breaker rip through this much expensive wax, this fast.

In example, just this afternoon they did the following:

41 hobby boxes (mix of prizm choice, hobby, optic choice, prizm white sparkle packs, 2019 optic contenders, box of noir, who knows what else they throw in)

[B]$3,875 per spot[/B], 8 spots (divisions)

1 person bought 4 spots ($15,500 are you kidding me...)
1 person bought 2 spots.
2 others filled it out then.

break opened at 1:46pm
filled at 2:04pm

That's $31,000 in revenue in 18 minutes.[/QUOTE]

That is insane. Each spot probably loses $3,675

Why would anybody give them loaded boxes? They are the scum of the earth. Just shows how low panini is willing to stoop for $. Anybody have Fanatics phone number?

My question is this:

Do we think they are buying direct from Panini for ALL of their product…months after release? Because thats not happening.

Or do we think they are getting loaded boxes and then sitting on them until a certain time…which is also months down the road from release?

Neither of these things seem realistic.

I have had my suspicions. The evidence is growing.

[QUOTE=johnlocke36;18485452]

Hard to imagine that there would be a scheme in place for one breaker to pull the biggest hits but not a scheme in place to make sure said 7 figure cards don't stay in house as well.[/QUOTE]

Not out of the question.

If you support BYB, you're either: an addict, a scammer or an idiot! There's no grey area.

Companies can hardly fill a redemption but you think they can coordinate juiced boxes? Come on guys.

[QUOTE=saraceno21;18485985]Companies can hardly fill a redemption but you think they can coordinate juiced boxes? Come on guys.[/QUOTE]

Card companies couldn't care less about redemptions. They already have your money. They are pushing their chips towards the middle on breaking. They 100% would coordinate some juiced boxes. Luber literally backed and supported BYB after some earlier issues. Fanatics is publicly supporting scammers while ignoring the hobby. Breakers are their new customers and mules.

Probably R. Kardashian buying up all the spots and a few others like him. Some people just live in a different world than the rest of us. $3K to them is like $30 to us. To them it's like buying a blaster at WM or Target.

[QUOTE=johnlocke36;18485452]seems like all the most important thing to do is investigate the relationship between people hitting/selling the biggest hits and the breakers/panini.

Hard to imagine that there would be a scheme in place for one breaker to pull the biggest hits but not a scheme in place to make sure said 7 figure cards don't stay in house as well.[/QUOTE]

stay in house? you mean like panini? They release the products. they couldn't possibly do that. :doh:

[QUOTE=SupermanBrandon;18486004]Card companies couldn't care less about redemptions. They already have your money. They are pushing their chips towards the middle on breaking. They 100% would coordinate some juiced boxes. Luber literally backed and supported BYB after some earlier issues. Fanatics is publicly supporting scammers while ignoring the hobby. Breakers are their new customers and mules.[/QUOTE]

Yeah I don't think BYB would be in with both Fanatics and Paninni. People on Instagram are saying will this make Fanatics not want to buy Panini. Fanatics is probably involved in this if there is anything shady going on.

Which benefits Panini more to have open a top card:

1. Me opening a box at home.

2. A breaker with 100k subscribers, especially young future customers.

If I'm the CEO of Panini and want my business to grow, I'm going have the best cards opened by breakers for viewers to get excited about.

[QUOTE=cms11;18486424]Which benefits Panini more to have open a top card:

1. Me opening a box at home.

2. A breaker with 100k subscribers, especially young future customers.

If I'm the CEO of Panini and want my business to grow, I'm going have the best cards opened by breakers for viewers to get excited about.[/QUOTE]

This 💯 %. That’s why the Lambo contest featured young breakers to bring in these audiences.

[QUOTE=saraceno21;18485985]Companies can hardly fill a redemption but you think they can coordinate juiced boxes? Come on guys.[/QUOTE]

sorry buddy, but this stuff has been going on for years

[QUOTE=hmballin;18485109]Just saw this on twitter. Someone doing a data dive on some of the cards they have hit in the past year. Thought it could be an interesting discussion at the very least.

[url]https://twitter.com/ericwhiteback/status/1580921626216255490?s=46&t=PeL2EYnvs0qVpz1xXDhUKw[/url][/QUOTE]

The methodology used to come to the conclusion in this twitter thread is extremely suspect.

[QUOTE=saraceno21;18485985]Companies can hardly fill a redemption but you think they can coordinate juiced boxes? Come on guys.[/QUOTE]

There have long been discussions about subtle identifiers on cases of product. It would not be that hard to direct said marked product to specific breakers.

Some of the posts rationalizing this from Panini’s perspective are ALARMING. This company is (potentially) defrauding consumers by funneling the biggest hits to specific large-scale customers and some sycophants are trying to defend it? We’ve really crossed the rubicon here. If these numbers reflect reality, and Panini’s conspicuous silence is speaking volumes, then this “hobby” is in a real crisis.

[QUOTE=cms11;18486424]Which benefits Panini more to have open a top card:

1. Me opening a box at home.

2. A breaker with 100k subscribers, especially young future customers.

If I'm the CEO of Panini and want my business to grow, I'm going have the best cards opened by breakers for viewers to get excited about.[/QUOTE]

Yes, common sense from a business perspective.

[QUOTE=cms11;18486424]Which benefits Panini more to have open a top card:

1. Me opening a box at home.

2. A breaker with 100k subscribers, especially young future customers.

If I'm the CEO of Panini and want my business to grow, I'm going have the best cards opened by breakers for viewers to get excited about.[/QUOTE]

Except for the fact that it is fraud and probably violates consumer-protection statutes in multiple states. But yeah, amazing idea!

[QUOTE=BlockShotStop;18486576]Some of the posts rationalizing this from Panini’s perspective are ALARMING. This company is (potentially) defrauding consumers by funneling the biggest hits to specific large-scale customers and some sycophants are trying to defend it? We’ve really crossed the rubicon here. If these numbers reflect reality, and Panini’s conspicuous silence is speaking volumes, then this “hobby” is in a real crisis.[/QUOTE]

I'm not defending it, I just know these companies have zero ethics when there's money to be made.

All I know is eventually shady business always goes down in a big fireball. When that day comes for these breakers everyone not involved will have the best laugh of their lives.

[QUOTE=bonerang;18486510]The methodology used to come to the conclusion in this twitter thread is extremely suspect.[/QUOTE]

Can’t believe more people aren’t saying this

I have no idea if there is any truth to this whatsoever. All I know is no corporation is immune to fraud and doing incredibly shady crap. It’s been fairly obvious that to get into real trouble, you need to get to Enron level corruption. Or even worse, stop making other people money.

The hobby isn’t exactly known as a beacon of truth and honesty.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

If there's money to be made, there's corruption.

That simple.

[QUOTE=bonerang;18486510]The methodology used to come to the conclusion in this twitter thread is extremely suspect.[/QUOTE]

I am asking. Not questioning.

What specifically makes it suspect?

[QUOTE=JWBlue;18486996]I am asking. Not questioning.

What specifically makes it suspect?[/QUOTE]

Already posted earlier: [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_truly_large_numbers[/url]

This type of math can make anything look improbable. If you break even one box of cards, pick the best 4 cards, and run the probability of you hitting those 4 specific cards from that box...it will seem improbable.

[QUOTE=saraceno21;18485985]Companies can hardly fill a redemption but you think they can coordinate juiced boxes? Come on guys.[/QUOTE]

they make no money filling redemptions ... simple

More free advertisement for these guys.

The investors in this company must be thrilled.

I dunno it does seem kind of suspicious the same breaker would pull the top 4 product hits value wise out of the 3 most popular products in one calendar year. NT logoman Cade, Black Prizm Cade, Flawless Lebron triple logoman, Flawless Warriors triple logoman.

I wouldn't say it's impossible but it seems highly improbable.

[QUOTE=BlockShotStop;18486576]Some of the posts rationalizing this from Panini’s perspective are ALARMING. This company is (potentially) defrauding consumers by funneling the biggest hits to specific large-scale customers and some sycophants are trying to defend it? We’ve really crossed the rubicon here. If these numbers reflect reality, and Panini’s conspicuous silence is speaking volumes, then this “hobby” is in a real crisis.[/QUOTE]

What are you going to do about it?

It's an unregulated industry. Group breaking is basically gambling but isn't treated as such by state governments.

If it's true that Backyard bros are getting loaded product, all it does is tell gamblers to participate with them instead of their competitors.

[QUOTE=BlockShotStop;18486580]Except for the fact that it is fraud and probably violates consumer-protection statutes in multiple states. But yeah, amazing idea![/QUOTE]

Where does it say in the disclaimer buyers are guaranteed a chance to hit a specific 1/1? The product gives odds of hitting certain types of cards, but not specific players.

I have no idea how much product these guys break never watched them. Do they break around the clock like Platinum and some others? I tried to look at their site yesterday for the link to their livestream and it said they were offline. They're offline now as well. They don't even have any products for sale on their website ahead of time for people to buy. At least not that i could see. How are they gonna break hundreds of boxes a day if they don't have them for sale ahead of time and work at least 12 hours a day? I'll tell you even back when Platinum used to break 200-300 cases a year of NT and Flawless each they didn't even pull that many big hits and they were working around the clock pretty much. And the products weren't as diluted as they are now.

And in 2 years they will be locked up for tax evasion watch

They're breaking right now on Whatnot with two different streams.

[QUOTE=RogerGodahell;18487043]I have no idea how much product these guys break never watched them. Do they break around the clock like Platinum and some others? I tried to look at their site yesterday for the link to their livestream and it said they were offline. They're offline now as well. They don't even have any products for sale on their website ahead of time for people to buy. At least not that i could see. How are they gonna break hundreds of boxes a day if they don't have them for sale ahead of time and work at least 12 hours a day? I'll tell you even back when Platinum used to break 200-300 cases a year of NT and Flawless each they didn't even pull that many big hits and they were working around the clock pretty much. And the products weren't as diluted as they are now.[/QUOTE]

The overarching problem is that there no random sampling. The definition of the event {Lebron, Cade Black, Cade 1/1, Triple Logo} is totally arbitrary and made to suit a particular point. Another poster mentioned that we would be saying the same thing for a number of different product hits, which is true. It is true that Backyard pulled the case hit for three (or four?) separate products: 21-22 Prizm, 21-22 NT, 2020 Flawless (x2? I don't know what year the Warriors card is from). What about all of the other products where they didn't pull the product hit? It doesn't appear (at least from the other picture that was on Twitter) that they pulled a single major 1/1 of LaMelo, Edwards, Maxey, or Haliburton last year. Based on the amount of product they break, it seems like they would have.

There are more problems. They assume that Backyard opens 5.4% of the product run based on what they opened with NT. But the price point of Flawless is prohibitive for all but the most well-financed breakers. I would think Backyard opened much more of Flawless than 5.4% conditional on us knowing they opened 5.4% of NT, which we don't actually know, we just extrapolated. Indeed, Backyard is continuing to open more and more of these products as time elapses, so there is no fixed amount of the product they are opening.

I think it is possible Backyard is getting fed juiced product from Panini, although it's not clear why Panini would want to do it, since the number of people that would line up to take Backyard's place is out the door, why does Panini care about Backyard at all. But this isn't the way to find out. If you wanted to use product data to draw this conclusion, you would need to define the cards in advance (unknown to Backyard), the products, and carefully collect the data. Something like taking Immaculate, Flawless, and Select FOTL, defining the cards to be the entire set of product hits, and then examining how many product hits were pulled vs. expected.


[QUOTE=JWBlue;18486996]I am asking. Not questioning.

What specifically makes it suspect?[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=msink28;18487061]The overarching problem is that there no random sampling. The definition of the event {Lebron, Cade Black, Cade 1/1, Triple Logo} is totally arbitrary and made to suit a particular point. Another poster mentioned that we would be saying the same thing for a number of different product hits, which is true. It is true that Backyard pulled the case hit for three (or four?) separate products: 21-22 Prizm, 21-22 NT, 2020 Flawless (x2? I don't know what year the Warriors card is from). What about all of the other products where they didn't pull the product hit? It doesn't appear (at least from the other picture that was on Twitter) that they pulled a single major 1/1 of LaMelo, Edwards, Maxey, or Haliburton last year. Based on the amount of product they break, it seems like they would have.

There are more problems. They assume that Backyard opens 5.4% of the product run based on what they opened with NT. But the price point of Flawless is prohibitive for all but the most well-financed breakers. I would think Backyard opened much more of Flawless than 5.4% conditional on us knowing they opened 5.4% of NT, which we don't actually know, we just extrapolated. Indeed, Backyard is continuing to open more and more of these products as time elapses, so there is no fixed amount of the product they are opening.

I think it is possible Backyard is getting fed juiced product from Panini, although it's not clear why Panini would want to do it, since the number of people that would line up to take Backyard's place is out the door, why does Panini care about Backyard at all. But this isn't the way to find out. If you wanted to use product data to draw this conclusion, you would need to define the cards in advance (unknown to Backyard), the products, and carefully collect the data. Something like taking Immaculate, Flawless, and Select FOTL, defining the cards to be the entire set of product hits, and then examining how many product hits were pulled vs. expected.[/QUOTE]

Exactly. This can't be calculated in hindsight. That would be like taking the last 4 numbers on the roulette board and calculating the probability of those 4 specific numbers coming up in that sequence. It's highly improbable. You'd have to find a way to predict the next 4 numbers on the board to prove the casino was rigging the wheel.

To make an analogy; they have calculated the probability of being dealt the ace of spades when they should have calculated the probability of being dealt at least one ace.

Remember when Upper Deck sent Beckett a 2007 Exquisite Football box with the two best cards in the product for their box review? The Adrian Peterson 1/1 RPA and Walter Payton/Brian Piccolo dual cut.

If you believe this can't/doesn't happen, I have some oceanfront property in Idaho for sale.

[QUOTE=fabiani12333;18487041]Where does it say in the disclaimer buyers are guaranteed a chance to hit a specific 1/1? The product gives odds of hitting certain types of cards, but not specific players.[/QUOTE]

Exactly. Although unethical, I don't think there's anything illegal about Panini sending loaded boxes to the biggest Youtubers, as long as there are no kickbacks or Panini employees involved in breaks.

Whatever the numbers crunch out to be, just more reason to either keep wax sealed or sell it.

I'm sitting on a box of 2018-19 FOTL Prizm and sometimes I like to think the Luka Black is in there, but I'll be happy to pass it along to someone else who can find out.

[QUOTE=RogerGodahell;18487043]I have no idea how much product these guys break never watched them. Do they break around the clock like Platinum and some others? I tried to look at their site yesterday for the link to their livestream and it said they were offline. They're offline now as well. They don't even have any products for sale on their website ahead of time for people to buy. At least not that i could see. How are they gonna break hundreds of boxes a day if they don't have them for sale ahead of time and work at least 12 hours a day? I'll tell you even back when Platinum used to break 200-300 cases a year of NT and Flawless each they didn't even pull that many big hits and they were working around the clock pretty much. And the products weren't as diluted as they are now.[/QUOTE]

From following their stream some i'd guess they do 300-400k in sales per day. They are on around the clock on 2-4 channels selling high $ breaks nonstop.

Whatnot is set up differently. Items are auctioned off in 30 second type auctions or listed in the store on the app. It makes things tougher to follow in terms of how much of each product they are selling as they do a ton of mixers and after the fact there is no record of the breaks.

Could it be rigged...Definitely. Its just the math used to come up with it is nonsense and its from people who are to lazy to take the time to even estimate how much of each product they're selling. "i heard from an inside source they sell 12 boxes of NT per day". Then guess that they sold the same 3 cases a day at release as they are selling 3 months out to do the math?

I'd more question if a ton of the big hits are purposely being put in FOTL, such as the cade cunningham 1/1 from prizm. That could be a way to 1) intentionally get FOTL products sold out at a higher price and 2) Almost all the FOTL products are ending up with the big breakers nowadays so the hits would be more public.

[QUOTE=auctionjmm;18487002]Already posted earlier: [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_truly_large_numbers[/url]

This type of math can make anything look improbable. If you break even one box of cards, pick the best 4 cards, and run the probability of you hitting those 4 specific cards from that box...it will seem improbable.[/QUOTE]

And this is also the Achilles heel of Sports Card Radio.

They did a long live stream and I caught up to the part where they brought someone on outlining the same thing. Despite SCR repeatedly saying they weren’t 100% certain of anything and would welcome any disproof, they yelled at the guy and called him an idiot.

We all get that BYB is a joke and actually has done crap in the past, but this ain’t it.

People misinterpreting this aren’t “bad at math.” It’s a logic issue.

[QUOTE=auctionjmm;18487002]Already posted earlier: [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_truly_large_numbers[/url]

This type of math can make anything look improbable. If you break even one box of cards, pick the best 4 cards, and run the probability of you hitting those 4 specific cards from that box...it will seem improbable.[/QUOTE]

We are not talking about one likely event within one print run(pulling the best card). It is one likely event(the best card) across multiple, separate events. I would say that the odds of it being shady are greater than the odds of it being not....fair?

[QUOTE=THE(NEXT)LEVEL;18487184]We are not talking about one likely event within one print run(pulling the best card). It is one likely event(the best card) across multiple, separate events. I would say that the odds of it being shady are greater than the odds of it being not....fair?[/QUOTE]

Don’t they open the most amount of product by a wide margin?

That coupled with what tmar’s mentioning about other best product hits have to impact the odds in the Twitter thread.

They pulled the best card out of 3 products. If they pulled the best card out of any of these other products wouldn't people say the same thing?

If the question is what are the odds they pull the best card (or even top 2 card) from 3 out of 11 of these products while opening more product than anyone what do the odds become?

2020 NT Football (Herbert or Burrow true shield)
2020 NT Basketball (edwards or lamelo logoman auto)
2020 immaculate basketball (edwards or lamelo logoman auto)
Flawless Basketball (triple lebron logoman)
Flawless Football (lawrence or lance true shield auto)
Prizm Football (1/1 lawrence / lance 1/1 base)
Prizm Basketball (1/1 cade cunningham black)
Immaculate Football (lawrence or lance true shield rpa)
2021 NT Football (lawrence or lance true shield rpa)
2021 NT Basketball (cade cunningham 1/1 logoman auto)
2021 eminence football (lawrence or lance 1/1 shield auto)

double post

[QUOTE=tmar214;18487206]They pulled the best card out of 3 products. If they pulled the best card out of any of these other products wouldn't people say the same thing?

If the question is what are the odds they pull the best card (or even top 2 card) from 3 out of 11 of these products while opening more product than anyone what do the odds become?

2020 NT Football (Herbert or Burrow true shield)
2020 NT Basketball (edwards or lamelo logoman auto)
2020 immaculate basketball (edwards or lamelo logoman auto)
Flawless Basketball (triple lebron logoman)
Flawless Football (lawrence or lance true shield auto)
Prizm Football (1/1 lawrence / lance 1/1 base)
Prizm Basketball (1/1 cade cunningham black)
Immaculate Football (lawrence or lance true shield rpa)
2021 NT Football (lawrence or lance true shield rpa)
2021 NT Basketball (cade cunningham 1/1 logoman auto)
2021 eminence football (lawrence or lance 1/1 shield auto)[/QUOTE]

Have all of these been pulled?

[QUOTE=Asian62150;18487222]Have all of these been pulled?[/QUOTE]

Many have. More so using it as an example if they pulled 3 of any of those cards listed people would say same thing so math used is dumb.