Observations on the current state of the hobby from a show this weekend
 

I thought I might give a few observations on the current state of the hobby from what I see at the big Pittsburgh show this weekend. Seems like this has been a hot topic recently on the board, so I figure I'll give you guys an opinion on what I see this weekend:

Friday (yesterday) - dealer set up was at 8 am and I got there around 9:30 and got set up with just value boxes because I felt this is what would move here and I was right as cards moved very well for me. In walking around I looked at basically every dealer's setup and will again this morning too and noticed one thing - current pricing is EVERYTHING!!!

Here are my takes:

--Guys pricing modern stuff over comps. (higher end stuff)
--Vintage seemed to be the hottest stuff.
--Cheap graded cards were a big hit from a few dealers I saw ($10 range)
--Mid range stuff seemed to be priced from a month ago.
--Good attendance for a Friday with buyers generally looking for a good value.
--Lots of dealers talking about higher costs and inflation concerns, etc.

I'll be there all day today and give a breakdown as well.

Thanks! I did not realize there was a show this weekend... I may run over for a bit...

Michael

Thanks for the insight.

I agree with you that value boxes are a good way to go. So many people bring high end stuff to set up, but so does everybody else. These people forget as collectors we like the hunt and search and above all we like finding good deals.


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Thanks for the summary. As a buyer, I like the value boxes for PC and the search for hidden bargains. On the other end, I can understand the higher costs for dealers. Hotel, gas, grading, set-up/show fees and etc. have all increased. Margins are definitely tighter.

I am currently standing outside the convention center about 75th in line to get in. The show opened 50 minutes ago. I take this as a good sign for the state of the hobby!

enjoy it!

no such thing as a bad show imo

What's the body odor factor compared to pre-pandemic levels?

I didn't notice any body odor... Kind of surprising considering the 30 min wait to get inside the door. Nice show, though!

Michael

How’s it compare to prior experiences at this show or others? Any differences?


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You forgot the one about everyone having a smallish Pelican brief case that they tote around with them.

[QUOTE=panamamyers;18196541]You forgot the one about everyone having a smallish Pelican brief case that they tote around with them.[/QUOTE]

As a Pelican elitist, this is incorrect. Everyone has the knockoff Apache cases

Also $1-10 boxes will always be the way to make $ at shows. I did a show last week and turned my $1500 invested “dollar boxes” into $3k selling out to another dealer 1 hr after show started.

Starting the cycle of making nice $1-3-5 boxes again as it’s the best way to cover expenses and make $

Picked this up today:

T206 Christy Mathewson Piedmont PSA 1

[QUOTE=solt0131;18196653]Picked this up today:

T206 Christy Mathewson Piedmont PSA 1[/QUOTE]

That’s seems like a very fair price for it.

On the other end of the spectrum, I picked this up for $1.00...

[URL=https://sportscardalbum.com/card/e6i1b54m/created-equal][IMG]https://sportscardalbum.com/c/e6i1b54m.jpg[/IMG][/URL]

Michael

Here were my observations from the show today:

--Very few people bringing stuff around to sell.

--Did not sound like any high end was moving at all and it seemed like it was because the price was just too high / people did not have interest in buying or putting out the cash.

--Value stuff doing very well, not just as my table but from the other dealers that had value boxes as well. One dealer told me he did $1000 in just dimes and quarter cards.
Show traffic was strong thru the main hours of the show (11-3) on a Saturday.

--Heard more than one dealer say they are getting concerned about the costs of doing a show now (gas, tolls, hotel, table cost) and this will play a bigger role going forward.

--Cheap slabs selling very well....example: stuff in the $10 - $15 range.

Anyway, hope this helps shed some light on how things are out there.

Seems like the market is crashing right before our eyes

[QUOTE=boxbuster7;18197409]Seems like the market is crashing right before our eyes[/QUOTE]

Not a chance. The vintage market is hotter than ever and demand is super high. This show has always been considered 70% vintage but modern was gaining quickly. There are a lot of buyers out there, you just have to price your stuff to sell instead of trying to gouge people.

seems like high end modern is dead in the water. the cheap fun stuff is still moving.

[QUOTE=panamamyers;18196541]You forgot the one about everyone having a smallish Pelican brief case that they tote around with them.[/QUOTE]

I definitely noticed this (or the knockoffs) at the show today. Shockingly low body odor, considering it was 90 in Pittsburgh today. Hardly any sealed boxes at the show. Normally there are at least a couple big wax dealers there. Not today.

[QUOTE=solt0131;18197417]Not a chance. The vintage market is hotter than ever and demand is super high. This show has always been considered 70% vintage but modern was gaining quickly. There are a lot of buyers out there, you just have to price your stuff to sell instead of trying to gouge people.[/QUOTE]

Let me clarify my comment. I don't really do vintage so it was purely based off 1990s-2020s cards.

[QUOTE=boxbuster7;18197409]Seems like the market is crashing right before our eyes[/QUOTE]

I'm curious how you got that from this post? My interpretation from reading the same post is the market is strong.

No one is going to learn anything about the market as a whole from one show in one city. The auction houses and ebay have always been the indicator of where the hobby is at. Some stuff is up, some stuff is down, like anything else.

same as it always was

[QUOTE=rwperu34;18197625]I'm curious how you got that from this post? My
interpretation from reading the same post is the market is strong.[/QUOTE]

It may be the 100 recession/inflation/crash is coming threads posted a week also. But to answer your question:

"--Did not sound like any high end was moving at all and it seemed like it was because the price was just too high / people did not have interest in buying or putting out the cash."

"--Heard more than one dealer say they are getting concerned about the costs of doing a show now (gas, tolls, hotel, table cost) and this will play a bigger role going forward."

[QUOTE=hairysasquatch;18196451]What's the body odor factor compared to pre-pandemic levels?[/QUOTE]

The most important question has yet to be answered.

[QUOTE=boxbuster7;18197748]It may be the 100 recession/inflation/crash is coming threads posted a week also. But to answer your question:

"--Did not sound like any high end was moving at all and it seemed like it was because the price was just too high / people did not have interest in buying or putting out the cash."

"--Heard more than one dealer say they are getting concerned about the costs of doing a show now (gas, tolls, hotel, table cost) and this will play a bigger role going forward."[/QUOTE]

Interesting.

The first one you must be focused on the 2nd factor (no interest) whereas I focused on the first (priced too high). This is a natural reaction for me because most people (live or online) simply put too high of a number on their stuff, especially on the high end.

The second statement would push prices up, IMO. That is dealers saying they can't afford to do shows because of the extra expenses. That would reduce supply, but demand still seems strong. It's definitely not forecasting a crash, unless you think they'd do a fire sale.

[QUOTE=rwperu34;18197778]Interesting.

The first one you must be focused on the 2nd factor (no interest) whereas I focused on the first (priced too high). This is a natural reaction for me because most people (live or online) simply put too high of a number on their stuff, especially on the high end.

The second statement would push prices up, IMO. That is dealers saying they can't afford to do shows because of the extra expenses. That would reduce supply, but demand still seems strong. It's definitely not forecasting a crash, unless you think they'd do a fire sale.[/QUOTE]

I don't go to shows myself so can't really speak much about them. But I went to a well known local card shop this past week and it was pretty much dead. I was the only customer there and stayed for about 20-25 minutes. (Of course I bought a $300 card when I went to get penny sleeves...)

But even from using COMC and reading these boards in the past few months. It is palpable. I keep telling myself now is a good time to get out. (And I really can't "get out" - as I've got over 150,000 cards on COMC that would take almost two years to liquidate at my current selling pace)

There is no doubt we are in an era of overprinting. And that is what has me keep telling myself to cut back. That the lack of demand just doesn't feel right for how much junk is out there. (Sure everybody wants the top cards or the hot player.) But that never changes.

I think now is a good time to exercise caution. I want to hold more cash for liquidity and wait for the right opportunities. And six months from now maybe this all passes...The fun part in all of this is not knowing what will happen.

Going to the Albany show today, I’ll post what I see.

[QUOTE=rwperu34;18197778]Interesting.

The first one you must be focused on the 2nd factor (no interest) whereas I focused on the first (priced too high). This is a natural reaction for me because most people (live or online) simply put too high of a number on their stuff, especially on the high end.

The second statement would push prices up, IMO. That is dealers saying they can't afford to do shows because of the extra expenses. That would reduce supply, but demand still seems strong. It's definitely not forecasting a crash, unless you think they'd do a fire sale.[/QUOTE]


I don't think they are going to stop doing them, honestly. I think some will actually stop doing them but not a lot. I think they will be more selective about what shows they do and possibly cut the shows out that cost too much to attend.

A few dealers I talked with said they turned into buyers and wanted to stock up on some stuff they can make money on at The National.

Observations on the current state of the hobby from a show this weekend
 

There was a huge show at Fenway in Boston last weekend. Did anyone go?

No one in the Red Sox or Devers threads seems to have gone.

I was wondering how that one was


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[QUOTE=solt0131;18197830]I don't think they are going to stop doing them, honestly. I think some will actually stop doing them but not a lot. I think they will be more selective about what shows they do and possibly cut the shows out that cost too much to attend.

A few dealers I talked with said they turned into buyers and wanted to stock up on some stuff they can make money on at The National.[/QUOTE]
Most dealers are morons.

I went to the show here in Vegas at GVR yesterday and the line to get in was 100 yards that snaked down the hall and around the corner. Crazy. Tons of people looking for cash deals LOL

Talked to a couple dealers and they didn't wanna come off ebay comps for the few slabs/sealed product I was looking at. I don't understand that logic but whatever.

Found one hobby box and a bunch of cheap supplies I needed and got outta there.

Pokemon plus sportscard autist BO was thick. I was in and out in under an hour LOL

[QUOTE=OneSickDegen;18197918]
Talked to a couple dealers and they didn't wanna come off ebay comps for the few slabs/sealed product I was looking at. I don't understand that logic but whatever.
[/QUOTE]


I agree with you.

I've seen this more and more on myslabs these days. Sellers asking more
than comps and/or same as ebay prices. Zero discount.

Wanted to add a couple cool Jordan inserts from myslabs and when I went
to check out pricing saw I could do much better on ebay than overpay on
myslabs.

Go figure.

Dealers will sound like a broken record for the foreseeable future: “ I can’t let it go for that price, I’m in it for a lot more than that”


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Always love threads about card shows because people who obviously haven’t been to a show recently love to comment.

[QUOTE=tconte;18197931]I agree with you.

I've seen this more and more on myslabs these days. Sellers asking more
than comps and/or same as ebay prices. Zero discount.

Wanted to add a couple cool Jordan inserts from myslabs and when I went
to check out pricing saw I could do much better on ebay than overpay on
myslabs.

Go figure.[/QUOTE]

That’s weird, cause I keep on losing on eBay auctions on every single auction I bid on for my guy.

Maybe his cards will be cheaper at the card shows.

[QUOTE=OneSickDegen;18197918]I went to the show here in Vegas at GVR yesterday and the line to get in was 100 yards that snaked down the hall and around the corner. Crazy. Tons of people looking for cash deals LOL

Talked to a couple dealers and they didn't wanna come off ebay comps for the few slabs/sealed product I was looking at. I don't understand that logic but whatever.

Found one hobby box and a bunch of cheap supplies I needed and got outta there.

Pokemon plus sportscard autist BO was thick. I was in and out in under an hour LOL[/QUOTE]

Dealers are still at the denial stage of the hobby recession, which is still the earliest stage. Their pride is still speaking loudly and they would rather die with their cards clutched to their hands than lose a single penny on a sale.

Anger is the next stage. They will start to wonder and obsess over why their hot cards aren’t moving at 150% eBay comps. They will start to get irritable at the idiot customers who keep on “lowballing” them.

After a few more months, bargaining starts to set in. They realize their set up costs continue to rise and opportunity costs continue to mount and they start to pray that they pull some monsters in the group breaks they keep participating in to make up some costs and hope the cards of the players they invested in start to skyrocket come call up and playoff time.

Then the nasty depression starts to set in. The offseason is coming and they are stuck with heavy bags and prices keep dropping and they still can’t get anywhere close to what he’s got his cards priced at. People start to pass up his table at every show he does cause he’s got the same old cards with the same old prices on them every single time. He’s lost his day job and his wife is angry at him for not selling at the peak, where he could have made triple the money.

Finally acceptance kicks in the following year. He dumps his whole inventory at a major loss cause his wife is threatening to leave him for screwing up the household finances. He leaves the hobby forever except for getting into one cheap break on occasion for the impossible chance of hitting that million dollar card, holding a “will work 4 food” sign as he gathers money for his next group break.

[QUOTE=SupermanBrandon;18197934]Dealers will sound like a broken record for the foreseeable future: “ I can’t let it go for that price, I’m in it for a lot more than that”


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[QUOTE=KhalDrogo;18197875]Most dealers are morons.[/QUOTE]

Accurate statements

[QUOTE=hermanotarjeta;18198019]Dealers are still at the denial stage of the hobby recession, which is still the earliest stage. Their pride is still speaking loudly and they would rather die with their cards clutched to their hands than lose a single penny on a sale.

[B]Anger is the next stage. They will start to wonder and obsess over why their hot cards aren’t moving at 150% eBay comps. They will start to get irritable at the idiot customers who keep on “lowballing” them.[/B]

After a few more months, bargaining starts to set in. They realize their set up costs continue to rise and opportunity costs continue to mount and they start to pray that they pull some monsters in the group breaks they keep participating in to make up some costs and hope the cards of the players they invested in start to skyrocket come call up and playoff time.

Then the nasty depression starts to set in. The offseason is coming and they are stuck with heavy bags and prices keep dropping and they still can’t get anywhere close to what he’s got his cards priced at. People start to pass up his table at every show he does cause he’s got the same old cards with the same old prices on them every single time. He’s lost his day job and his wife is angry at him for not selling at the peak, where he could have made triple the money.

Finally acceptance kicks in the following year. He dumps his whole inventory at a major loss cause his wife is threatening to leave him for screwing up the household finances. He leaves the hobby forever except for getting into one cheap break on occasion for the impossible chance of hitting that million dollar card, holding a “will work 4 food” sign as he gathers money for his next group break.[/QUOTE]

This is where most will be at the National!

[QUOTE=SupermanBrandon;18198025]This is where most will be at the National![/QUOTE]
Maybe on Wednesday and Thursday. By Saturday afternoon, they will have progressed to the acceptance phase.

Dealers turning into net buyers to move product at the National for profit are not thinking about what the landscape might look like in two months. The risk/reward ratio is just not there unless you are practically stealing cards today. And if you are, why wait two months to sell? Go move it now for a profit.

[QUOTE=hermanotarjeta;18198019]Dealers are still at the denial stage of the hobby recession, which is still the earliest stage. Their pride is still speaking loudly and they would rather die with their cards clutched to their hands than lose a single penny on a sale.

Anger is the next stage. They will start to wonder and obsess over why their hot cards aren’t moving at 150% eBay comps. They will start to get irritable at the idiot customers who keep on “lowballing” them.

After a few more months, bargaining starts to set in. They realize their set up costs continue to rise and opportunity costs continue to mount and they start to pray that they pull some monsters in the group breaks they keep participating in to make up some costs and hope the cards of the players they invested in start to skyrocket come call up and playoff time.

Then the nasty depression starts to set in. The offseason is coming and they are stuck with heavy bags and prices keep dropping and they still can’t get anywhere close to what he’s got his cards priced at. People start to pass up his table at every show he does cause he’s got the same old cards with the same old prices on them every single time. He’s lost his day job and his wife is angry at him for not selling at the peak, where he could have made triple the money.

Finally acceptance kicks in the following year. He dumps his whole inventory at a major loss cause his wife is threatening to leave him for screwing up the household finances. He leaves the hobby forever except for getting into one cheap break on occasion for the impossible chance of hitting that million dollar card, holding a “will work 4 food” sign as he gathers money for his next group break.[/QUOTE]

Dude, you have to be a published writer -- that is hilarious.

[QUOTE=boxbuster7;18197748]It may be the 100 recession/inflation/crash is coming threads posted a week also. But to answer your question:

"--Did not sound like any high end was moving at all and it seemed like it was because the price was just too high / people did not have interest in buying or putting out the cash."

[B]"--Heard more than one dealer say they are getting concerned about the costs of doing a show now (gas, tolls, hotel, table cost) and this will play a bigger role going forward."[/B][/QUOTE]

We get asked A LOT if we go to shows and this is why we don't. Ive been trying to do projections about how much money is OUT of the hobby because of shows. Shows do not bring in new collectors, investors, or speculators it just sucks money out of the hobby. Sure, it's cool to see your friends and go to shows but from a business perspective it is a complete waste. You will get more money for your cards from somewhere else and not have the insane overhead of a show. We ONLY do the National, we have considered traveling to shows to see people and meet folks but setting up is basically out of our minds.

I think 8 figures+ have been given to other industries just by having the influx of shows in the past 2 years.

[QUOTE=jewcer2k5;18198059]We get asked A LOT if we go to shows and this is why we don't. Ive been trying to do projections about how much money is OUT of the hobby because of shows. Shows do not bring in new collectors, investors, or speculators it just sucks money out of the hobby. Sure, it's cool to see your friends and go to shows but from a business perspective it is a complete waste. You will get more money for your cards from somewhere else and not have the insane overhead of a show. We ONLY do the National, we have considered traveling to shows to see people and meet folks but setting up is basically out of our minds.

I think 8 figures+ have been given to other industries just by having the influx of shows in the past 2 years.[/QUOTE]

There is still people who don't use ebay/internet and only buy at shows/in person but probably not many in your areas.

[QUOTE=k13;18198104]There is still people who don't use ebay/internet and only buy at shows/in person but probably not many in your areas.[/QUOTE]

Small local shows are great, the problem is these enormous regional shows multiple times per month. If dealers are traveling 2x per month they are spending about 5-10k per month on shows (flight, hotel, setup, etc...). If I spend 10k to do a show I need to sell $200k to make it worth it (at full eBay). Thats just a straight percentage if I am a dealer that is "just" a dealer.

Our model is a little different and we could actually afford to do more shows because its the cost of customer acquisition. As long as we get enough grading / consignment customers or buy a certain amount it COULD be worth it. I don't think we need a lot of shows for that though.

I dont think there are many folks in Dallas, Vegas, Philly, Long Island, Chicago, DC, Minneapolis, San Fran, etc...that are not using the internet. Those large regional shows are what I am talking about.

Wouldn't the two big advantages of shows is that you are buying while being able to see the cards in hand. Your selling via cash, so no transaction fees. Also more "flexible" tax reporting, ahem.

I think many dealers are collectors at their root and not business people. How many dealers have taken any business classes? The importance of making your money on the buy side, turning over inventory, cash flow, etc. Making $20 profit on multiple cards is better than waiting for that $50 profit on one card.

[QUOTE=jewcer2k5;18198122]Small local shows are great, the problem is these enormous regional shows multiple times per month. If dealers are traveling 2x per month they are spending about 5-10k per month on shows (flight, hotel, setup, etc...). If I spend 10k to do a show I need to sell $200k to make it worth it (at full eBay). Thats just a straight percentage if I am a dealer that is "just" a dealer.

Our model is a little different and we could actually afford to do more shows because its the cost of customer acquisition. As long as we get enough grading / consignment customers or buy a certain amount it COULD be worth it. I don't think we need a lot of shows for that though.

I dont think there are many folks in Dallas, Vegas, Philly, Long Island, Chicago, DC, Minneapolis, San Fran, etc...that are not using the internet. Those large regional shows are what I am talking about.[/QUOTE]

Maybe I am the only one here, but I dont go to shows to see all the national leaders in the industry. I go to the local shows to see the small dealers who dont have shops or small shops from within the state. Big dealers are great and I visit them too. If you go back to the 1990s and 2000's most large dealers did not attend many shows except the big ones. Shows were mostly your small mom and pop people and mainly people who didnt have shops. Now it almost seems like every show is the same 50 dealers. But you are right most sellers are online now. Yet I like to go to shows and see the smaller dealers. Just my opinion.

[QUOTE=tconte;18197931]I agree with you.

I've seen this more and more on myslabs these days. Sellers asking more
than comps and/or same as ebay prices. Zero discount.

Wanted to add a couple cool Jordan inserts from myslabs and when I went
to check out pricing saw I could do much better on ebay than overpay on
myslabs.

Go figure.[/QUOTE]

Were they charging sales tax? If not, they were giving you a discount. Dealers traveling to a show have a similar overhead to Ebay's ~13% fees. I don't understand why collectors expect a discount at a show. The dealer could just stay at home and sell on eBay, avoiding paying for gas, hotel, food, table fees, etc.

Also there is something special about see and holding a card that you are thinking about buying. I do think that is lost in todays generation. The thrill of the hunt is also lost, now you want a card just type it in on ebay and POOF several copies. There is no better feeling that going to a card show and seeing the card you have been looking for for the last few years shinning back look at you saying buy me. Do you have any idea how hard it was for me to find a 1993 Stadium Club First day production Ryne Sandberg back in 1993.....

[QUOTE=Scottish Punk;18198125]Wouldn't the two big advantages of shows is that you are buying while being able to see the cards in hand. Your selling via cash,[B] so no transaction fees[/B]. Also more "flexible" tax reporting, ahem.

I think many dealers are collectors at their root and not business people. How many dealers have taken any business classes? The importance of making your money on the buy side, turning over inventory, cash flow, etc. Making $20 profit on multiple cards is better than waiting for that $50 profit on one card.[/QUOTE]

This is a classic misconception from both dealers and buyers. My transaction/selling fees for a show are the cost of a show. Cash is great, I guess, but there are still fees for being there that need to be taken into account. That is the biggest reason why I think shows are a drain on the hoby.

Yes many dealers have no business sense, which is why they think there are no costs involved.

[QUOTE=rogueriver;18198129]Maybe I am the only one here, but I dont go to shows to see all the national leaders in the industry. I go to the local shows to see the small dealers who dont have shops or small shops from within the state. Big dealers are great and I visit them too. If you go back to the 1990s and 2000's most large dealers did not attend many shows except the big ones. Shows were mostly your small mom and pop people and mainly people who didnt have shops. Now it almost seems like every show is the same 50 dealers. But you are right most sellers are online now. Yet I like to go to shows and see the smaller dealers. Just my opinion.[/QUOTE]

What is the barrier of entry online for dealers? Its basically laziness if they dont have any presence. There is no cost to getting an ebay account or joining forums/facebook/IG/TikTok, etc.... The market is a lot different so there is no real benefit.

I would guess people aren't going to shows to see certain dealers. The biggest draw for a straight dealer is to be able to buy inventory at a discount at a show, but when the same dealers go show after show after show they are making it harder on themselves (and more expensive).

If they stayed home and saved $120,000 (2 shows per month at $5k all in per show which is probably low) they could hire multiple people or spend more on inventory. You said you see the same 50 dealers so lets say 35 of those dealers are traveling thats $4,200,000 out of the hobby. That's not a TON of money for the overall size of the hobby but Im betting a lot of those dealers could get a lot more inventory and move a lot more if they weren't going to every show.

Josh, please remember that you are intelligent. Most of your “competitors” are not. They will be weeded out over the next two years. You’ll be standing.

Many dealers set up at shows now more to buy collections than to sell inventory.

It’s a great way to steal cards from people who are desperate for money.

[QUOTE=hermanotarjeta;18198232]Many dealers set up at shows now more to buy collections than to sell inventory.

It’s a great way to steal cards from people who are desperate for money.[/QUOTE]

There is definitely a cycle. Fun to watch their rhetoric over time and to see when they start pumping the market again. For now they’ll claim everybody should stay with “blue chips” - only because this is what they’ve loaded up on during fat times and will try to sustain themselves on now..

Will be able to watch this cycle happen in this very forum :coffee:

Went to a show this morning. First one in awhile. Decent crowd.

I bought 2 cards. $325. Not fire sale pricing but we were both happy with the deal. Saw plenty moving in that range IF the dealers were pricing fairly.

On the other hand, I had two different dealers spend a solid minute looking at comps when I asked about a card and then ask for more. And these were not rare cards- a PSA 9 UD 301 Lebron and a Red Ice Trae. It was literally "the last one sold for x. So 1.25x." One guy had Luka Prizm Gems at $525 - this is a great barometer card. It tells me to keep on walking.

All in all I thought it was fairly positive. The ones who can't or won't adapt will die. Circle of life.

This discussion makes me realize the extent to which this aspect of the hobby (i.e. having shows to attend/set up at) is concentrated in the northeastern part of the country.

West of the Mississippi decent card shows are few and far between outside of the big cities in Texas and SoCal.

Albany show was more hit and miss. I saw a guy who’s probably in anger stage on his basketball as he had Tyler herro base prizm at 80 and snapped at me if he was buying. It was more of a trade day and robbed a guy on one deal. Traded my Bryan Acuna chrome auto for a Moreno chrome auto a Crosby victory rc for a Stutzle yg. I got one deal of an Acuna heritage rc, tovar bowman best auto, dever stadium club chrome rc for 28.

[QUOTE=mfw13;18198253]This discussion makes me realize the extent to which this aspect of the hobby (i.e. having shows to attend/set up at) is concentrated in the northeastern part of the country.

West of the Mississippi decent card shows are few and far between outside of the big cities in Texas and SoCal.[/QUOTE]

because it is the most densely populated area

My local shows in NC have been amazing since the summer of 2020. I’ve avoided setting up at larger regional shows due to many reasons stated in this thread. The costs to setup, food, airfare or gas, hotels, etc. are crazy right now if traveling to some of the bigger cities. For one of my large local shows, I can buy 3-5 tables, 1 hotel room for a night, and a couple meals for like $300 max.

Would love to know how much some of these hobby Youtube “influencers” are sweating right now. Flying to shows across the country ever weekend plus all other costs have to be piling up. They’ll showcase highlight videos with prices paid then I see those cards auctioned off the next week for 20% less on eBay before fees. I wouldn’t mind a correction to weed out some of the morons that have entered the hobby the past couple years.

In terms of the shows themselves in my area, they’ve never been better. Most of my inventory is fresh each show so I’m not bringing the same stuff like a lot of people do. Getting 80-110% eBay prices on almost every sale. The sweet spot is $10-200 cards. The high end stuff has definitely slowed down since most people don’t have the budget for it. Retail wax has come to a screeching halt. Some idiots are still bringing retail blasters out for 50% over msrp, I’m sure they’ll stop setting up soon. Those guys looks miserable every show when nobody is stopping by their tables.

[QUOTE=bravesfan#1;18198342]My local shows in NC have been amazing since the summer of 2020. I’ve avoided setting up at larger regional shows due to many reasons stated in this thread. The costs to setup, food, airfare or gas, hotels, etc. are crazy right now if traveling to some of the bigger cities. For one of my large local shows, I can buy 3-5 tables, 1 hotel room for a night, and a couple meals for like $300 max.

Would love to know how much some of these hobby Youtube “influencers” are sweating right now. Flying to shows across the country ever weekend plus all other costs have to be piling up. They’ll showcase highlight videos with prices paid then I see those cards auctioned off the next week for 20% less on eBay before fees. I wouldn’t mind a correction to weed out some of the morons that have entered the hobby the past couple years.

In terms of the shows themselves in my area, they’ve never been better. Most of my inventory is fresh each show so I’m not bringing the same stuff like a lot of people do. Getting 80-110% eBay prices on almost every sale. The sweet spot is $10-200 cards. The high end stuff has definitely slowed down since most people don’t have the budget for it. Retail wax has come to a screeching halt. Some idiots are still bringing retail blasters out for 50% over msrp, I’m sure they’ll stop setting up soon. Those guys looks miserable every show when nobody is stopping by their tables.[/QUOTE]

I’m setting up in Raleigh in July.

Can’t wait. Its been like 10 years since I did a show in NC.

[QUOTE=LeonfromNC;18198356]I’m setting up in Raleigh in July.

Can’t wait. Its been like 10 years since I did a show in NC.[/QUOTE]

It’s a great show right before the National.

Went to a local show last weekend. Didn't buy a thing. However, I picked up covid apparently and spent 6.5 hours in the ER. [emoji1751]

Sent from my Pixel 6 using Tapatalk

[QUOTE=123precision;18198581]Went to a local show last weekend. Didn't buy a thing. However, I picked up covid apparently and spent 6.5 hours in the ER. [emoji1751]

Sent from my Pixel 6 using Tapatalk[/QUOTE]

Sorry to hear that. Hope you feel better soon!

Those dealers not being able to move retail blasters at 150% cost is a good sign the hobby is getting more collector friendly again.

Went to Walmart for the first time in a year and noticed they had major sport product back on the shelves again.

Interesting thing was didn’t notice anyone hovering over the card section anymore.

However noticed the same crowd gathering around the baby-formula section.

Glad the flippers are leaving our hobby at least. Saddened at the state of humanity, however.

Was at the Dallas show this weekend, visited all 700 tables. Well, I at least walked by them...observations FWIW:

- A lot of tables have the same 7-10 players. Makes you question what "rare" really is -- many cases filled with Luka, Soto, Vlad, and Tatis.
- Many tables seemed to have not interest in selling things, more interested in flexing what is in their collection.
- Surprising popularity and selection of Formula 1 cards.
- Lots of vintage.
- Heard a number of complaints about lack of show traffic and no one wants to buy (pay cash) for cards.
- Saw a number of sizable trades get done, but very little cash change hands.
- Won't go into the eBay comp convos I had.
- A lot of pricing stuck in February 2021, saw Gavin Lux 2020 Flagship PSA 10s in cases at $70.
- Tons of people carrying around plastic cases of cards with "$30-$50k" of modern RPA stuff. In quotes, because I consider a lot of that stuff junk.

Ultimately, had a fantastic time -- but came away with there are a lot of cash strapped people in the current environment and a lot of illiquid assets.

[QUOTE=jewcer2k5;18198122]Small local shows are great, the problem is these enormous regional shows multiple times per month. If dealers are traveling 2x per month they are spending about 5-10k per month on shows (flight, hotel, setup, etc...). If I spend 10k to do a show I need to sell $200k to make it worth it (at full eBay). Thats just a straight percentage if I am a dealer that is "just" a dealer.

Our model is a little different and we could actually afford to do more shows because its the cost of customer acquisition. As long as we get enough grading / consignment customers or buy a certain amount it COULD be worth it. I don't think we need a lot of shows for that though.

I dont think there are many folks in Dallas, Vegas, Philly, Long Island, Chicago, DC, Minneapolis, San Fran, etc...that are not using the internet. Those large regional shows are what I am talking about.[/QUOTE]

Local show I spend $50 table + $20 gas + $10 food so not bad but average traffic.

Setting up at the big 4 day expo in two weeks is still not that costly.
Around $1200 for four days.

Most dealers have other jobs around here so mostly a hobby to them.

[QUOTE=bravesfan#1;18198461]It’s a great show right before the National.[/QUOTE]

Grew up going to shows at the NC fairgrounds in Raleigh. Haven’t had a chance in decades now. Miss it!

[QUOTE=hotcalsun;18199157]Was at the Dallas show this weekend, visited all 700 tables. Well, I at least walked by them...observations FWIW:

- A lot of tables have the same 7-10 players. Makes you question what "rare" really is -- many cases filled with Luka, Soto, Vlad, and Tatis.
- Many tables seemed to have not interest in selling things, more interested in flexing what is in their collection.
- Surprising popularity and selection of Formula 1 cards.
- Lots of vintage.
- Heard a number of complaints about lack of show traffic and no one wants to buy (pay cash) for cards.
- Saw a number of sizable trades get done, but very little cash change hands.
- Won't go into the eBay comp convos I had.
- A lot of pricing stuck in February 2021, saw Gavin Lux 2020 Flagship PSA 10s in cases at $70.
- Tons of people carrying around plastic cases of cards with "$30-$50k" of modern RPA stuff. In quotes, because I consider a lot of that stuff junk.

Ultimately, had a fantastic time -- but came away with there are a lot of cash strapped people in the current environment and a lot of illiquid assets.[/QUOTE]


Thanks for the recap.
Would be interested in hearing more about the EBay comp convos if you care to share.

[QUOTE=k13;18199258]Most dealers have other jobs around here so mostly a hobby to them.[/QUOTE]

Not until they get laid off.

[QUOTE=hotcalsun;18199157]Was at the Dallas show this weekend, visited all 700 tables. Well, I at least walked by them...observations FWIW:

- A lot of tables have the same 7-10 players. Makes you question what "rare" really is -- many cases filled with Luka, Soto, Vlad, and Tatis.
- Many tables seemed to have not interest in selling things, more interested in flexing what is in their collection.
- Surprising popularity and selection of Formula 1 cards.
- Lots of vintage.
- Heard a number of complaints about lack of show traffic and no one wants to buy (pay cash) for cards.
- Saw a number of sizable trades get done, but very little cash change hands.
- Won't go into the eBay comp convos I had.
- A lot of pricing stuck in February 2021, saw Gavin Lux 2020 Flagship PSA 10s in cases at $70.
- Tons of people carrying around plastic cases of cards with "$30-$50k" of modern RPA stuff. In quotes, because I consider a lot of that stuff junk.

Ultimately, had a fantastic time -- but came away with there are a lot of cash strapped people in the current environment and a lot of illiquid assets.[/QUOTE]
Agree with all of this. Shows have been cash light for over a year now. This isn’t new, but maybe people will start paying attention now that internet prices are falling. There’s not as much cash in this space as people might think. Too much buying a card and paying for it with future consignment. Works great while prices are appreciating. But it’s an Achilles heal for the hobby as prices fall.

[QUOTE=Collector only;18199295]Thanks for the recap.
Would be interested in hearing more about the EBay comp convos if you care to share.[/QUOTE]

On the eBay comps, below is what I would summarize and am speaking generally, not specifically about dealers or buyers — heard these on both sides. I listened a lot and had a few conversations myself - I was an all cash buyer this weekend, brought no cards to trade.

- many think their cards are above recent comps, even if they are declining.
- many try to rely on outliers
- few take into consideration the 12% fees + no 1099 on cash deals vs. eBay
- some won’t even sell at a current eBay listed price. I asked why should i buy from you when I can buy it for less on eBay right now. Response: that’s my price.

[QUOTE=hotcalsun;18199157]W
- A lot of tables have the same 7-10 players. Makes you question what "rare" really is -- many cases filled with Luka, Soto, Vlad, and Tatis.[/QUOTE]

The pop reports from PSA support this.

[QUOTE=StateEx;18199751]The pop reports from PSA support this.[/QUOTE]

The card companies saw a money maker with the young stars and as usual
beat it to death. So every year the stars will get cool inserts, limited colors,
and autos. They do this because it's like printing money.

[QUOTE=KhalDrogo;18199316]Agree with all of this. Shows have been cash light for over a year now. This isn’t new, but maybe people will start paying attention now that internet prices are falling. There’s not as much cash in this space as people might think. Too much buying a card and paying for it with future consignment. Works great while prices are appreciating. But it’s an Achilles heal for the hobby as prices fall.[/QUOTE]

Here lies the truth....buying on credit has been the goto method for the last few years. We are now in the selling for cash phase.

This is especially true with the younger crowd. Maxing out credit cards to purchase slabbed or wax boxes was not even a concern a year or two ago. I have watched very young people at my LCS spread a purchase over 2-3 different credit cards in one visit. The revolving door stopped, and those people are maxed out and now need cash to pay it off. So the first phase is, "hey, what will you pay me cash for x item" and it goes down hill from there....for a while they will try to "get it back" via breaks and such....like a gambler at a casino who is on a losing slide.

[QUOTE=jewcer2k5;18198059]We get asked A LOT if we go to shows and this is why we don't. Ive been trying to do projections about how much money is OUT of the hobby because of shows. Shows do not bring in new collectors, investors, or speculators it just sucks money out of the hobby. Sure, it's cool to see your friends and go to shows but from a business perspective it is a complete waste. You will get more money for your cards from somewhere else and not have the insane overhead of a show. We ONLY do the National, we have considered traveling to shows to see people and meet folks but setting up is basically out of our minds.

I think 8 figures+ have been given to other industries just by having the influx of shows in the past 2 years.[/QUOTE]

Its just my opinion, but I have to agree 100% with Josh here. That's a lot of money flowing elsewhere. For me, I've been a dealer (internet only) for 17 years and never done a show as I just don't see the benefit. The only thing that would sell more easily at shows are the monster boxes of $.25-$2 cards...but i don't really sell those anyhow so no benefit.

Besides the expenses, the time commitment was never something I could tolerate - even for local shows. I do enjoy attending them and visiting with folks, but I prefer the flexibility of dealing on the internet - I can control my time and flow of product better. I'm glad others do it, but its not for me.

Shows would be a lot better if internet connection was shut off.