2022 Baseball Prospectus Top 101 Prospects
 

Released today. I enjoy BP because they aren't afraid to go against the grain, unlike 99% of prospect sites and rankings which rip off MLB, BA and Fangraphs. Will not post, because it's behind a paywall [just buy a month subscription if you don't have it].

No surprises at the immediate top, but..

-WOW they are high on Jordan Walker.

-Oneil Cruz was extremely highly rated.

-Luis Matos and Owen Caissie had big jumps.

-I am intrigued that Jeremy Pena gets a lot of love on prospect sites

-Big slides for Bart, Pache.

Do they love Volpe like I do?

[QUOTE=imbluestreak23;17938175]Do they love Volpe like I do?[/QUOTE]

Actually free at [url]https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/72047/2022-prospects-the-top-101/[/url].

Greenie and Tork. Oh yeah.

Then...well...Jackson Jobe...hmm...

Elly De La Cruz is suddenly in all these Top 100's. I look at that 20% SwStr and say Leeeeerooooyy Jennnkinssss.

But hey, he does gets 3 swings to hit it and he rarely sees more pitches than that!

Edit: don't get me wrong. I'm super-high on a played at Low-A in 2021 teenage infielder with a 30 K% too -- we all take out shots. But it's not Elly for me.

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Always nice to see some of the guys I "invested" in make the list. The only 3 for me are Luis Matos, Andy Pages and Michael Harris.

[QUOTE=Boredlawyer;17938171]Released today. I enjoy BP because they aren't afraid to go against the grain, unlike 99% of prospect sites and rankings which rip off MLB, BA and Fangraphs. Will not post, because it's behind a paywall [just buy a month subscription if you don't have it].

No surprises at the immediate top, but..

[B]-WOW they are high on Jordan Walker.[/B]

-Oneil Cruz was extremely highly rated.

-Luis Matos and Owen Caissie had big jumps.

-I am intrigued that Jeremy Pena gets a lot of love on prospect sites

-Big slides for Bart, Pache.[/QUOTE]

Kid has been raking at every level he's been at. His only issue is that he plays 3B and the Cardinals have Nolan Arenado for the foreseeable future. Hopefully they can find a spot for him as he won't be the minors long at his current pace.

[QUOTE=salas1991;17938187]Actually free at [url]https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/72047/2022-prospects-the-top-101/[/url].

Greenie and Tork. Oh yeah.

Then...well...Jackson Jobe...hmm...[/QUOTE]

Glorious!

Glad to see 2021 Bowman Chrome fall release guys under the radar (aka, absent from the list lol). Preciado making it though is nice.

Cruz at 12 HUH????

[QUOTE=imbluestreak23;17938216]Glorious!

Glad to see 2021 Bowman Chrome fall release guys under the radar (aka, absent from the list lol). Preciado making it though is nice.[/QUOTE]

It is interesting how many draft guys vs chrome guys are on the list.

[QUOTE=Bcr;17938215]Kid has been raking at every level he's been at. His only issue is that he plays 3B and the Cardinals have Nolan Arenado for the foreseeable future. Hopefully they can find a spot for him as he won't be the minors long at his current pace.[/QUOTE]

Oh, I'm a huge fan--at 2020 draft release, I compared him to a young Kris Bryant. I think there's all-world talent there.

[QUOTE=Boredlawyer;17938236]Oh, I'm a huge fan--at 2020 draft release, I compared him to a young Kris Bryant. I think there's all-world talent there.[/QUOTE]

I looked up his stats, 27% k rate / 6% walk rate in A+. Lets hold off on the hof ceremony.

Prospectus has always been about prioritizing upside above all else. If you look thru that lens, it's not shocking to see how high they are on guys like Walker, Alvarez, Cruz

Jeremy Pena is the biggest shock to me, always felt like a safe option more than monster upside

That Jordan Walker ranking…in 4 hours I have to call my doctor if you catch my drift.

Royce Lewis went from 31 pre 2021 to unranked this year. That’s…aggressive…

there seems to be a premium on MLB near readiness. Cavalli being as high as he is was a bit surprising to me as a Nats fan

[QUOTE=tlschwerz;17938266]Royce Lewis went from 31 pre 2021 to unranked this year. That’s…aggressive…[/QUOTE]

His next in-game AB will be 2.5 years since his last. It's aggressive but I wonder if BP is more skeptical on his athleticism post surgery than BA and other sites

Where's Wander? I thought he was a prospect.

[QUOTE=Rooftop;17938303]Where's Wander? I thought he was a prospect.[/QUOTE]

Na, beckett says hes a rookie now. This is the way

Knowing what we know now, its interesting looking back at the 2017 list

Very surprised no one has mentioned that Jasson Dominguez is not on the BP list. He fell to 87 on the BA list.

Dominguez holders are going to start feeling some major pain unless he starts this season hot in the minors this year. I'm not holding my breath on that.

Since it's free:



The Baseball Prospectus Top 101
Chart
Rank
Name
Position
Team
1 Bobby Witt Jr. SS KCR
2 Adley Rutschman C BAL
3 Julio Rodriguez OF SEA
4 Spencer Torkelson 3B/1B DET
5 Grayson Rodriguez RHP BAL
6 Riley Greene OF DET
7 Jordan Walker 3B STL
8 Shane Baz RHP TBR
9 Marco Luciano SS SFG
10 Francisco Álvarez C NYM
11 CJ Abrams SS SDP
12 Oneil Cruz SS PIT
13 Brett Baty 3B NYM
14 Anthony Volpe SS NYY
15 Noelvi Marte SS SEA
16 Jeremy Pena SS HOU
17 Marcelo Mayer SS BOS
18 Henry Davis C PIT
19 Cade Cavalli RHP WAS
20 Jack Leiter RHP TEX
21 George Kirby RHP SEA
22 Gabriel Moreno C TOR
23 Tyler Soderstrom C OAK
24 Max Meyer RHP MIA
25 Zac Veen OF COL
26 Robert Hassell III OF SDP
27 Brennen Davis OF CHC
28 Nolan Gorman 3B/2B STL
29 Nick Gonzales 2B PIT
30 Luis Matos OF SFG
31 Josh Jung 3B TEX
32 Hunter Greene RHP CIN
33 George Valera OF CLE
34 Corbin Carroll OF ARI
35 MJ Melendez C KCR
36 Miguel Vargas 3B LAD
37 Alek Thomas OF ARI
38 Liover Peguero SS PIT
39 Keibert Ruiz C WAS
40 Nick Yorke 2B BOS
41 Mick Abel RHP PHI
42 Nick Lodolo LHP CIN
43 Daniel Espino RHP CLE
44 Triston Casas 1B BOS
45 Kahlil Watson SS MIA
46 Colton Cowser OF BAL
47 Brayan Rocchio SS CLE
48 Jordan Lawlar SS ARI
49 Jackson Jobe RHP DET
50 Justin Foscue 2B TEX
51 Ronny Mauricio SS NYM
52 Austin Martin SS/OF MIN
53 Joey Bart C SFG
54 Eury Perez RHP MIA
55 Diego Cartaya C LAD
56 Kyle Muller LHP ATL
57 Gabriel Arias SS CLE
58 Michael Harris OF ATL
59 Luis Campusano C SDP
60 Jordan Groshans IF TOR
61 Oswald Peraza SS NYY
62 Orelvis Martinez SS TOR
63 Bobby Miller RHP LAD
64 Reid Detmers LHP LAA
65 Matthew Liberatore LHP STL
66 Brady House SS WAS
67 Owen Caissie OF CHC
68 Andy Pages OF LAD
69 Edward Cabrera RHP MIA
70 Elly de la Cruz SS CIN
71 Cristian Pache OF ATL
72 Nick Pratto 1B/OF KCR
73 Nate Pearson RHP TOR
74 Sixto Sanchez RHP MIA
75 Shea Langeliers C ATL
76 Dax Fulton LHP MIA
77 Matt McLain IF CIN
78 Jordan Balazovic RHP MIN
79 Reginald Preciado IF CHC
80 D.L. Hall LHP BAL
81 Jarren Duran OF BOS
82 Andrew Painter RHP PHI
83 Jairo Pomares OF SFG
84 Gavin Williams RHP CLE
85 Spencer Strider RHP ATL
86 Sam Bachman RHP LAA
87 Emerson Hancock RHP SEA
88 Gunnar Henderson SS BAL
89 Roansy Contreras RHP PIT
90 Randy Vasquez RHP NYY
91 Cole Winn RHP TEX
92 Kyle Harrison LHP SFG
93 Bryson Stott IF PHI
94 Garrett Mitchell OF MIL
95 Vidal Brujan IF/OF TBR
96 Joe Ryan RHP MIN
97 Geraldo Perdomo SS ARI
98 Sal Frelick OF MIL
99 Ezequiel Duran 2B/SS TEX
100 Aaron Ashby LHP MIL
101 James Triantos SS CHC

Sixto Sanchez at 74?

Arthur

[QUOTE=JRX;17938243]I looked up his stats, 27% k rate / 6% walk rate in A+. Lets hold off on the hof ceremony.[/QUOTE]

The fun police has arrived.

[QUOTE=Oriole Way;17938368]Very surprised no one has mentioned that Jasson Dominguez is not on the BP list. He fell to 87 on the BA list.

Dominguez holders are going to start feeling some major pain unless he starts this season hot in the minors this year. I'm not holding my breath on that.[/QUOTE]

He's about to turn 19 so still plenty of time to develop. The Covid season probably didn't help either. It would be nice to see him take a big leap this year.

[QUOTE=imbluestreak23;17938216]Glorious!

Glad to see 2021 Bowman Chrome fall release guys under the radar (aka, absent from the list lol). Preciado making it though is nice.[/QUOTE]

I really like Preciado, but I think Colmenarez and Pineda will be treated the same in a year--Preciado simply signed a year earlier and has a little more development time. My three favorite guys from 2021 BC: Peguero, Pineda and Preciado.

[QUOTE=holygrail22;17938254]Prospectus has always been about prioritizing upside above all else. If you look thru that lens, it's not shocking to see how high they are on guys like Walker, Alvarez, Cruz

Jeremy Pena is the biggest shock to me, always felt like a safe option more than monster upside[/QUOTE]

Which is why it's interesting that Jasson didn't make the list.

[QUOTE=Oriole Way;17938368]Very surprised no one has mentioned that Jasson Dominguez is not on the BP list. He fell to 87 on the BA list.

Dominguez holders are going to start feeling some major pain unless he starts this season hot in the minors this year. I'm not holding my breath on that.[/QUOTE]

Ruh Roh!

Mackenzie Gore not being on a top prospect list feels weird. Had to go check in on him. Hope he recovers and fixes whatever woes have come up. Was super excited for him.

[QUOTE=tlschwerz;17938266]Royce Lewis went from 31 pre 2021 to unranked this year. That’s…aggressive…[/QUOTE]

Cal Ripken of Bowman products. Was sad to see his run come to an end. JJ bleday your up.

Preciado @ 79 and Cristian Hernandez doesn’t make this list. Very very interesting….

[QUOTE=TraderJake;17938298]there seems to be a premium on MLB near readiness. Cavalli being as high as he is was a bit surprising to me as a Nats fan[/QUOTE]


Cavalli struggled mightily at AAA ... and yet, Reid Detmers struggled only at the MLB level and he fell like a rock. :confused:

there isn't a single Atlanta Brave in the top 55????????????????????????????????

WTF!!!!!!!

what happened to Drew Waters?

Nice to see Hassell so high

they got the top 20 right in no particular order

[QUOTE=oplum29;17938578]there isn't a single Atlanta Brave in the top 55????????????????????????????????

WTF!!!!!!!

what happened to Drew Waters?[/QUOTE]

Our talent is in Atlanta winning rings.:)!

The Baseball America list was published as well. Dominguez was still there at least.

Is Grayson still stuck in AA? If so why?

The disrespect of Julio is sickening


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jackson jobe and kyle muller over sixto sanchez? austin martin over orelvis martinez? hard to see what they see in some of these guys.

I have seen Diego Cartaya from 24 to 125.

Orelivis about 40/50 on everyone's list.

[QUOTE=holygrail22;17938300]His next in-game AB will be 2.5 years since his last. It's aggressive but I wonder if BP is more skeptical on his athleticism post surgery than BA and other sites[/QUOTE]

You aren’t wrong, but he had zero in game ABs in 2020 as well. It’s a weird fall after a routine injury. Either you believed in growth or you didn’t.

Personally don't think Dominguez belongs in the top 100 but was a bit surprised they didn't squeeze him in.

Also thought Everson Pereira would make the cut following his progress last year.

[QUOTE=holygrail22;17938254]Jeremy Pena is the biggest shock to me, always felt like a safe option more than monster upside[/QUOTE]

If they think he's very likely to be a league average SS starting as soon as this year, it makes sense. Even at 3 WAR he would be an extremely valuable player because his probability is so high now.

[QUOTE=Oriole Way;17938368]Dominguez holders are going to start feeling some major pain.[/QUOTE]

With all due respect to Dominguez holders, they deserve what's coming. From the start, he was probably one of the worst prospects anyone could have put any money into as far as value goes. There was no room for any growth. And that was before he started playing. He was priced like Mickey Mantle from the word go. And then, if they saw his stats and kept his cards or bought more it is a double whammy. Some people just shouldn't buy prospects. And if one finds themself on this list of people who bought this guy, its time to do a serious self reflection.

[img]https://media.giphy.com/media/Nl2J6tMCMs1pe/giphy.gif[/img]

[QUOTE=premium1981;17938822]With all due respect to Dominguez holders, they deserve what's coming. From the start, he was probably one of the worst prospects anyone could have put any money into as far as value goes. There was no room for any growth. And that was before he started playing. He was priced like Mickey Mantle from the word go. And then, if they saw his stats and kept his cards or bought more it is a double whammy. Some people just shouldn't buy prospects. And if one finds themself on this list of people who bought this guy, its time to do a serious self reflection.[/QUOTE]

I like how in the span of a year we've gone from next Mickey Mantle to his career is over.

[QUOTE=JRX;17938987]I like how in the span of a year we've gone from next Mickey Mantle to his career is over.[/QUOTE]

And if he comes out strong and jacks a few home runs, he will be the next Mickey Mantle again really fast lol

Bryson Stott firmly in the Top 100

[QUOTE=premium1981;17938822]With all due respect to Dominguez holders, they deserve what's coming. From the start, he was probably one of the worst prospects anyone could have put any money into as far as value goes. There was no room for any growth. And that was before he started playing. He was priced like Mickey Mantle from the word go. And then, if they saw his stats and kept his cards or bought more it is a double whammy. Some people just shouldn't buy prospects. And if one finds themself on this list of people who bought this guy, its time to do a serious self reflection.[/QUOTE]

Dominguez and Moncada.

A notch below that are the Kevin Maitan types. 16 yr olds who have no business selling for coin as the track record for success is absolutely pathetic.

Where's my guy: Luisangel Acuna

[QUOTE=JRX;17938987]I like how in the span of a year we've gone from next Mickey Mantle to his career is over.[/QUOTE]

Career over is obviously a major overstatement...but his values have always been out of whack. I literally just bought a Corey Seager orange auto PSA 9 for less than the last Dominguez blue or green shimmer auto PSA 9s went for...and one of those guys just got a $300M contract. You could say similar things about Nolan Arenado, or Carlos Correa, or Manny Machado, or pretty much any player whose 1st Bowman auto was from 2009 to 2015 that isn't Mike Trout or Mookie Betts.

There's an extremely real chance that Dominguez winds up as a player that's in the major leagues for like 4 years and has less than 5 career WAR. Or he could make the HOF someday. The issue isn't the talent - it's the probabilities involved. People have seen the Soto/Acuna/Tatis/Vlad group and gotten way out of line with how likely it is for other prospects to repeat that stuff.

I've been building a trade target list of 1st Bowman/Bowman RC autos - mostly players that have been in the majors a while and have some solid HOF chances - and have been going through all the Bowman checklists for the last decade. It's grisly. There's going to be so much value go up in smoke on Bowman autos from 2019-2021. If someone doesn't have an absolute emotional need to own these prospect cards, I would encourage them to sell and reacquire when the players are 27 - they could have really good careers and they will likely STILL be cheaper than now unless they're going to be a pantheon kind of player.

[QUOTE=tyrith;17939621]Career over is obviously a major overstatement...but his values have always been out of whack. I literally just bought a Corey Seager orange auto PSA 9 for less than the last Dominguez blue or green shimmer auto PSA 9s went for...and one of those guys just got a $300M contract. You could say similar things about Nolan Arenado, or Carlos Correa, or Manny Machado, or pretty much any player whose 1st Bowman auto was from 2009 to 2015 that isn't Mike Trout or Mookie Betts.



There's an extremely real chance that Dominguez winds up as a player that's in the major leagues for like 4 years and has less than 5 career WAR. Or he could make the HOF someday. The issue isn't the talent - it's the probabilities involved. People have seen the Soto/Acuna/Tatis/Vlad group and gotten way out of line with how likely it is for other prospects to repeat that stuff.



I've been building a trade target list of 1st Bowman/Bowman RC autos - mostly players that have been in the majors a while and have some solid HOF chances - and have been going through all the Bowman checklists for the last decade. It's grisly. There's going to be so much value go up in smoke on Bowman autos from 2019-2021. If someone doesn't have an absolute emotional need to own these prospect cards, I would encourage them to sell and reacquire when the players are 27 - they could have really good careers and they will likely STILL be cheaper than now unless they're going to be a pantheon kind of player.[/QUOTE]Oh I agree completely. Most autos will be worth way less 5 years from now, it's a constant pump and dump. I just like how after part of a year at 18 where he was ok, he went from this massive prospect to not being in the top 100.

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[QUOTE=JRX;17939666]Oh I agree completely. Most autos will be worth way less 5 years from now, it's a constant pump and dump. I just like how after part of a year at 18 where he was ok, he went from this massive prospect to not being in the top 100.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk[/QUOTE]

Yeah, sounds like the danger that he may not be able to stay in CF soured some scouts pretty fast. That's certainly a value killer for a super young prospect.

Chill. Jasson is only 19.

Dax Fulton (even though I like him) was a surprise for me. You can really project him out, but I did not think he would make any of the preseason lists

*Flip Torkelson and Adley and you've got my top 4.

*I like Abrams more than Luciano.

*Cruz will be a pretty good second fiddle to Wander in 2022 Flagship.

*Brett Baty at 13? No f'n way.

*I will die on the Alek Thomas is better than Corbin Carroll hill. When you adjust for hobby he's way better. This list is the closest I've seen them though.

*Is Joey Bart ranked #53 or is he 53 years old?

*I think the world is sleeping on Pratto. I wish more of his stuff would come up for auction.

*Geraldo Perdomo at #97 is about perfect.

*Heliot Ramos does not make the list after his disastrous year. I have completely divested outside of a few refractors that need to go to PSA.

No Hedbert Perez is unexpected.

[QUOTE=cardozo;17940043]No Hedbert Perez is unexpected.[/QUOTE]


Why?

He had really good results in the complex league, but still Ks a lot, does not walk much (perhaps indicated poor pitch selection or approach), and is a corner OF only with not much physical projection left.

He’s a guy with basically one carrying tool, and he has to develop the hard one (hit) in order to get to the good one (power).

He might learn to hit and select pitches.

I think if this list was 200 prospects he might be on it. But I’m not even sure he’s one of MKE’s top 7 prospects right now.


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[QUOTE=rwperu34;17940012]*Flip Torkelson and Adley and you've got my top 4.

*I like Abrams more than Luciano.

*Cruz will be a pretty good second fiddle to Wander in 2022 Flagship.

*Brett Baty at 13? No f'n way.

*I will die on the Alek Thomas is better than Corbin Carroll hill. When you adjust for hobby he's way better. This list is the closest I've seen them though.

*Is Joey Bart ranked #53 or is he 53 years old?

*I think the world is sleeping on Pratto. I wish more of his stuff would come up for auction.

*Geraldo Perdomo at #97 is about perfect.

*Heliot Ramos does not make the list after his disastrous year. I have completely divested outside of a few refractors that need to go to PSA.[/QUOTE]


What do you mean by adjust for hobby?

Absolutely agree with you on Pratto. Kid is a baseball rat. Not sure he’ll ever be a hobby superstar, but maybe a Nick Johnson type for a long time.

Re: Heliot, has he had any stretches other than that glorious AZL that make people believe in him? He sort of reminds me of a potential outcome for Jasson, in terms of body and approach. Also I once heard one of Heliot’s coaches absolutely bury him in a discussion with a fan. Which, suffice to say, is pretty unusual.

Agree with you on Baty at 13 seeming high. I think the kicker for him will he if he can hit 270 or 240. He plays good defense and has a really sweet power swing.

I haven’t seen Abrams or Luciano in person. But Luciano does seem to be filling out more like a 3B, and im not sure I buy the approach. That Hi A spell should be a wake-up call for him. I think he has the talent to make the necessary adjustments.


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My read on these is that Martin is too high, Gunnar is too high, too light on Mauricio, Yorke, Carroll.

I’d also take Moreno over Alvarez. But I can understand either way.

Nothing particularly egregious though.


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[QUOTE=JRX;17938987]I like how in the span of a year we've gone from next Mickey Mantle to his career is over.[/QUOTE]

Anyone who had either of those thoughts are loco. My whole point was in reference to his prices vs reason for that pricing. Anyone buying was doomed from the start.

[QUOTE=SupermanBrandon;17939205]Where's my guy: Luisangel Acuna[/QUOTE]

Maybe he will make next years list, then Bryan Acuna can make the one after that.

[QUOTE=TheHeel;17939763]Chill. Jasson is only 19.[/QUOTE]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

[QUOTE=VandyCards;17940208]Why?

He had really good results in the complex league, but still Ks a lot, does not walk much (perhaps indicated poor pitch selection or approach), and is a corner OF only with not much physical projection left.

He’s a guy with basically one carrying tool, and he has to develop the hard one (hit) in order to get to the good one (power).

He might learn to hit and select pitches.

I think if this list was 200 prospects he might be on it. But I’m not even sure he’s one of MKE’s top 7 prospects right now.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk[/QUOTE]

He's all over the place depending where you look. Prospects 1500 has him at #1 for the Brewers.

[url]https://www.prospects1500.com/nl-central/brewers/milwaukee-brewers-top-50-prospects-2022/[/url]

[QUOTE=VandyCards;17940208]Why?

He had really good results in the complex league, but still Ks a lot, does not walk much (perhaps indicated poor pitch selection or approach), and is a corner OF only with not much physical projection left.

He’s a guy with basically one carrying tool, and he has to develop the hard one (hit) in order to get to the good one (power).

He might learn to hit and select pitches.

I think if this list was 200 prospects he might be on it. But I’m not even sure he’s one of MKE’s top 7 prospects right now.


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Because he has a lot of hype and talent and probably will be in the top 100 of most other lists.

[QUOTE=Yaga;17940520]He's all over the place depending where you look. Prospects 1500 has him at #1 for the Brewers.

[url]https://www.prospects1500.com/nl-central/brewers/milwaukee-brewers-top-50-prospects-2022/[/url][/QUOTE]

And #4 at MILB, pushed down a spot after they drafted Frelick.

I remember in the old days Baseball America's top 100 thread, usually posted by JP, was the hottest prospect discussion list.

But now it's not free :(

2022 Baseball Prospectus Top 101 Prospects
 

[QUOTE=imbluestreak23;17940544]I remember in the old days Baseball America's top 100 thread, usually posted by JP, was the hottest prospect discussion list.

But now it's not free :([/QUOTE]


People used to post it even after the paywall went up. I’m glad that has stopped (the sharing of paid content part).

Edit: I do miss the discussion though. It seems JP doesn’t post as much anyone.


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[QUOTE=Htown1032;17938768]Personally don't think Dominguez belongs in the top 100 but was a bit surprised they didn't squeeze him in.

Also thought Everson Pereira would make the cut following his progress last year.[/QUOTE]

Pereira surprises me too but he’s not getting the love anywhere. I think they may feel the hit tool won’t cut it at AAA and MLB.

It would be interesting to see who 101-105 are because the top of this year's list should already be in the majors (Witt, Julio, Adley, Tork, Greene).

[QUOTE=VandyCards;17940650]People used to post it even after the paywall went up. I’m glad that has stopped (the sharing of paid content part).

Edit: I do miss the discussion though. It seems JP doesn’t post as much anyone.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk[/QUOTE]

I think I remember him saying something along the lines of cards are too pricey now. With all of the speculation and mini bubbles popping up in the hobby, he is right

[QUOTE=Yaga;17940520]He's all over the place depending where you look. Prospects 1500 has him at #1 for the Brewers.

[url]https://www.prospects1500.com/nl-central/brewers/milwaukee-brewers-top-50-prospects-2022/[/url][/QUOTE]


And 13th on FG.

That he’s ranked high (or low) by other writers doesn’t inform the analysis of why I think he isn’t a Top 100 guy right now. He’s an extreme risk guy who will need to bust his tail to even be an average MLB hitter. Maybe he will maybe he won’t. But there are a lot more guys (both in the system, and in MiLB as a whole) who are much higher likelihood to be valuable MLB contributors.

This perhaps underscores the difficulty/differences is ranking prospects (especially across ages and levels). How do you compare a guy who has a 5-90-5 projection of 5/2/0 WAR per season with a guy who has a 5-90-5 of 8/.2/0? I lean more towards the likely contributor than I do to the “if these 3 unlikely events happen, he’s an all-star” guy.


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[QUOTE=cardozo;17940540]And #4 at MILB, pushed down a spot after they drafted Frelick.[/QUOTE]


MLB Pipeline hasn’t done their 2022 yet. I’m not certain their most recent re-rank involves a deep dive into 2021 stuff. His write up doesn’t reference it, at least.


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[QUOTE=D-Lite;17940651]Pereira surprises me too but he’s not getting the love anywhere. I think they may feel the hit tool won’t cut it at AAA and MLB.[/QUOTE]


I think he’s probably in the next 10-20 names. He had a very loud 2021 but still a lot of Ks. And his pre pandemic year wasn’t phenomenal, albeit aggressively pushed.


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[QUOTE=imbluestreak23;17940657]I think I remember him saying something along the lines of cards are too pricey now. With all of the speculation and mini bubbles popping up in the hobby, he is right[/QUOTE]


I hear that. I mean I don’t buy many prospect cards anymore, either. But that doesn’t stop me from participating in card-adjacent convos.


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