Wind of Change: Shifting from Paper to Chrome
 

Sometime in the past six months or so, there had been a surge in Topps Chrome prices. The trend routinely gets mentioned in the various threads, but from what I can recall, we haven’t had a focused discussion on the matter.

The conventional wisdom is that the surge is due to an influx of new baseball collectors, who are crossing over from other sports—where they’re accustomed to shiny Panini products.

Is that it? Are there any other reasons why the tide shifted? Is Chrome dominance here to stay, or is it going to continue going back and forth and/or shifting to other products?

And if it is, indeed, driven by the newbies, is this crowd of hardcore collectors, here in the Blowout forum, staying the course and collecting what they like, Nd finding the lull in paper to be a great buying opportunity?

Personally, I like both paper and Chrome (and Topps and Bowman, for that matter). So, I collect from across the board—except that some levels of Chrome have become difficult to pursue. But I grab what I can.

I’m curious to hear your thoughts.


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I agree that the winds of change are in effect, but I think it’s been longer than six months. At least a year or so. I don’t think it’s just newbies. I think it may have started with them, but a large chunk of the hobby is joining in, and I don’t think it’ll change too much even after this current price dip scares away the flippers. Chrome cards look great, and usually have a smaller print run than their flagship counterpart. Flagship has some great parallels, but they can be hard to find in good condition, and can get pricey quick. I’ll definitely take a Flagship Independence Day over most chrome refractors, but there’s something great about gold and red refractors. Also, auto cards are a big plus for chrome, if that’s your thing. It’s definitely a nuanced issue, and I know there’s more to it than the things I’ve mentioned.

If we’re talking base vs base, I’ll take chrome. If it’s parallels vs refractors, then I have to go case by case with it.

[QUOTE=MiamiMarlinsFan;17348857]I agree that the winds of change are in effect, but I think it’s been longer than six months. At least a year or so. I don’t think it’s just newbies. I think it may have started with them, but a large chunk of the hobby is joining in, and I don’t think it’ll change too much even after this current price dip scares away the flippers. Chrome cards look great, and usually have a smaller print run than their flagship counterpart. Flagship has some great parallels, but they can be hard to find in good condition, and can get pricey quick. I’ll definitely take a Flagship Independence Day over most chrome refractors, but there’s something great about gold and red refractors. Also, auto cards are a big plus for chrome, if that’s your thing. It’s definitely a nuanced issue, and I know there’s more to it than the things I’ve mentioned.

If we’re talking base vs base, I’ll take chrome. If it’s parallels vs refractors, then I have to go case by case with it.[/QUOTE]



I pretty much agree with everything you said. Maybe my timeline is off a little, and is more swayed toward my Vlad-centric collecting.

But yes, parallel to parallel is case by case. Autos are a factor, as are SP/SSP photo variations—which are among my favorite offerings from Topps.


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I like chrome, but paper is timeless and isn't going anywhere. You can compare it across decades and eventually centuries. It has held up.

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This has been a long time coming, paper print runs have skyrocketed, chrome has gone up too but is produced significantly less. Chrome has refractors, paper has SP’s, but now Chrome has SP’s that are refractors. There has always been a 2 tiered price to Bowman Paper vs Chrome, paper blue /150 sells for 66% or less than blue refractor /150 of the same card. Sure the sneaker bois tend to buy chrome vs paper, but large portion of collectors think Chrome just looks nicer (especially refractors). I think the chrome preference is here to stay, and paper will be retail only before too long (or sold online if no retail in stores)

Imma go MoreToppsPlease for a sec-
Collectors gonna collect what they like.
This isn't about collectors. Its about flipping. When the chrome tide started rising, flippers from low end Larrys like me to the top rung of the food chain took notice. Why buy a flagship parallel that may go up 50% when a comparably priced chrome card promises 200%?
Probably 70% of the singles Ive bought in 2021 are chrome. In 2020 that number might have been 25%.
If everyone wants an Audi I don't want to be in business selling Gremlins.

Wind of Change: Shifting from Paper to Chrome
 

Hypothesis: Chrome is easier to gem, so there is more demand for raw to grade... and an 80% lower print run... thus driving up raw values... and because there is a market multiple perception of multiples for PSA 10 vs. raw that is untied from supply concerns while the backlog exists it has driven up the graded prices


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I collect flagship for a particular run I'm on, but outside of that chrome is my preference.

I think chrome base cards are awful but who doesn’t love refractors

I like the flagship parallels more. But have been grabbing more and more topps chrome autos.

Wind of Change: Shifting from Paper to Chrome
 

BTW to make this analog more comparable...

If we compare Chrome refractor in ‘17-18 (the year most of the players I collect are in)... their print run is 5-6k, and things like prism/Xfractor are 2-3k.

...compare those to flagship rainbow or gold, which are in the 2-3k print run range

Well flagship rainbow/gold both in raw and graded psa 9/10 are much much more expensive than the chrome refractor/prism/Xfractor cards at similar raw/grade levels

So in my mind the real biggest inversion is on base vs. base... and can’t much of that point to print runs being 1/5 in chrome? Plus as just a simple base the chrome is prettier?

Other things that seem to sell better in paper flagship? Any of the #d variations and the SP and SSP image variations... they all tend to sell for far more than similar or lower print run counterparts in chrome


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I think one ( of many ) factors not mentioned here yet - the recent spike in values have let collectors “trade up” ( sell ) their paper RC’s / sets / boxes for the Chrome counterparts, without coming out of pocket....

Topps Chrome is king... and here to stay.

Flagship parallels are great too.

dont forget about Sapphire

Sapphire Base cards are some of the best made cards around

I’ve never understood why PSA 10 US300 are cheaper than HMT55 PSA 10s. US300 is far harder to gem

[QUOTE=Soxfanguy;17349084]I’ve never understood why PSA 10 US300 are cheaper than HMT55 PSA 10s. US300 is far harder to gem[/QUOTE]

True, but yet there’s still 15,000+ of them out there.

I believe some others have mentioned it over the years that the main cause of the Flagship boom was that Trout did not have a Chrome version of his flagship. The logic was that all other Update's should be THE RC card to get for players. Never bought into it much, but I do like the Flagship Parallels long term *if it is their 1st Flagship card. Looks like it was more of a Flagship boom that could be the blip on the longterm radar. It's not so much that winds are shifting away from Paper as it is things are returning to how they've been for a few decades.

Whether it's Marvin Harrison/Drew Brees/Aaron Rodgers in FB; Kobe/Lebron/Curry in BSK; or even the same sport with Jeter/Cabrera/Mauer in BB, Chrome's have always sold better than their Flagship counterparts despite the higher Gem Rate.

[QUOTE=Soxfanguy;17349084]I’ve never understood why PSA 10 US300 are cheaper than HMT55 PSA 10s. US300 is far harder to gem[/QUOTE]

because you dont have HMT55's lol

honestly, there is no reason not to own both

[QUOTE=ThoseBackPages;17349141]because you dont have HMT55's lol[/QUOTE]


Believe it or not, I do

[QUOTE=Soxfanguy;17349084] US300 is far harder to gem[/QUOTE]

This was my first thought as well - chrome cards are “sturdier” than paper cards, so more gems relative to total print run. Of course (as pointed out above), paper print run is generally higher than chrome, so that adds another layer to consider.

As someone that got back into this a year or so ago, I dislike how many variations there are on Topps flagship. Very few of them are numbered, and it's very difficult to tell - other than by playing following the leader with market price - what the relative print runs are on different cards without doing a ton of research. Topps Chrome and Bowman Chrome have very, very clear print runs in comparison, since almost all of the key parallels are numbered and there are very few unnumbered SSP cards.

Plus shiny things look nice and on card autos are awesome.

Always been a higher percentage of chrome for me. Gold refractors always seemed like steals compared to what people priced paper parallels at. That has changed now for the most part as market caught up. Paper parallels never get as much attention when trying to sell either. Someone playing well you get lots of offers on chrome parallels, and barely any sniffs on paper. Also not an SP or SSP guy. Give me a red, orange, or gold refractor any day.

It’s weird how people look at them so differently, one is really just a re-package/parallel of the other.

They both can easily be distributed in the same pack/product...and it wouldn’t be strange.

[QUOTE=MoreToppsPlease;17349517]It’s weird how people look at them so differently, one is really just a re-package/parallel of the other.

They both can easily be distributed in the same pack/product...and it wouldn’t be strange.[/QUOTE]


It’s what they do for heritage and stadium club, for instance ;)


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Bowman is the king of that. But the issue is when the Chrome comes in the same pack, it fundamentally devalues the paper, which simultaneously devalues Bowman Chrome as a set. The hobby would probably be better off if Bowman was just a paper set and Bowman Chrome was a standalone, like Topps and Topps Chrome. But that would decrease the overall MSRP between the two sets, and I think they've realized they make a lot of money off getting to print duplicate sets of chrome rookie cards/chrome autos between Bowman and Bowman Chrome.

Panini Prizm caused this.

[QUOTE=tyrith;17349585]Bowman is the king of that. But the issue is when the Chrome comes in the same pack, it [B]fundamentally devalues[/B] the paper, which simultaneously [B]devalues[/B] Bowman Chrome as a set. The hobby would probably be better off if Bowman was just a paper set and Bowman Chrome was a standalone, like Topps and Topps Chrome. But that would [B]decrease[/B] the overall MSRP between the two sets, and I think they've realized they make a lot of money off getting to print duplicate sets of chrome rookie cards/chrome autos between Bowman and Bowman Chrome.[/QUOTE]

Devaluing is a GOOD thing.

More people can enjoy.

[QUOTE=ThoseBackPages;17349075]dont forget about Sapphire

Sapphire Base cards are some of the best made cards around[/QUOTE]



Sapphire is next level. It literally combines the framework of flagship with the technology of Chrome, and is released with the scarcity of a parallel.


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[QUOTE=MoreToppsPlease;17349517]They both can easily be distributed in the same pack/product...and it wouldn’t be strange.[/QUOTE]



You mean, like, Bowman?


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[QUOTE=dream34;17349140]I believe some others have mentioned it over the years that the main cause of the Flagship boom was that Trout did not have a Chrome version of his flagship. The logic was that all other Update's should be THE RC card to get for players. Never bought into it much, but I do like the Flagship Parallels long term *if it is their 1st Flagship card. Looks like it was more of a Flagship boom that could be the blip on the longterm radar. It's not so much that winds are shifting away from Paper as it is things are returning to how they've been for a few decades.



Whether it's Marvin Harrison/Drew Brees/Aaron Rodgers in FB; Kobe/Lebron/Curry in BSK; or even the same sport with Jeter/Cabrera/Mauer in BB, Chrome's have always sold better than their Flagship counterparts despite the higher Gem Rate.[/QUOTE]



It’s a good point that there was a bit of a flagship boom. The Trout factor is part of it, though it was my impression that Bat Down (and the comparable Gleyber) sparked the semi-recent surge.

Even before Trout, the Buster Posey 2010 Topps RC and, going back even further, the Pujols 2001 Topps Traded were popular cards. Flagship rookies have had appeal for a while (besides, of course, pre-1981).

But a boom can also be an awakening of sorts. I don’t think a base card with a six-figure print run is necessarily that exciting, but the parallels are so hard to come by. Even a gold or foil, in the 2,000-2,200 range, is a relatively rare offering of the flagship card. And when you get into the sub-100 print runs, that’s some serious scarcity. It would make sense to me for the hobby to covet the parallels.

[QUOTE=MoreToppsPlease;17349625]Devaluing is a GOOD thing.

More people can enjoy.[/QUOTE]

People don't enjoy feeling like they are buying devalued cards. If there were Topps Chrome cards in every flagship pack, I don't think people would nearly be as into the flagship paper cards as they are now. Also, the chrome cards means the unit price of the sealed product is going to be a lot higher and therefore less accessible.

Bowman paper is essentially valueless - it doesn't even ship in most breaks and as has been mentioned, the parallels are worth significantly less than identically numbered Chrome parallels. I think having them literally side by side makes it easy for the Bowman paper to be seen as a "lesser" product in a way that isn't true for Topps vs Topps Chrome.

I thought the paper cards were there just to protect the chrome ones :confused:

No one cared about paper until ~2017. They used to just be junk included in Bowman w/ Draft. Chrome = King.

[QUOTE=tyrith;17349750][B]People don't enjoy feeling like they are buying devalued cards.[/B] If there were Topps Chrome cards in every flagship pack, I don't think people would nearly be as into the flagship paper cards as they are now. Also, the chrome cards means the unit price of the sealed product is going to be a lot higher and therefore less accessible.

Bowman paper is essentially valueless - it doesn't even ship in most breaks and as has been mentioned, the parallels are worth significantly less than identically numbered Chrome parallels. I think having them literally side by side makes it easy for the Bowman paper to be seen as a "lesser" product in a way that isn't true for Topps vs Topps Chrome.[/QUOTE]

You’re describing the base cards in a pack that contains parallels. Does buying base cards give people the feeling that they’re buying devalued cards?

Edit: Bowman paper is worthless because there aren’t enough prospectors/flippers around to support it. They can only support/maintain chrome pricing.

[QUOTE=MoreToppsPlease;17349767]You’re describing the base cards in a pack that contains parallels. Does buying base cards give people the feeling that they’re buying devalued cards?

Edit: Bowman paper is worthless because there aren’t enough prospectors/flippers around to support it. They can only support/maintain chrome pricing.[/QUOTE]

Flipping doesn't work unless there are people that actually want to own the card/slab, otherwise it's just a pyramid scheme that rapidly dies.

And that's same issue with Bowman paper - it's not the same as a normal parallel because parallels are typically a one per pack thing, or less. Instead, you get a pack that has 20 paper cards and 5 nicer, thicker, more premium feeling cards right next to each other. It's not just a question of rarity or color - the entire experience of the card has an immediate, direct comparison that makes one superior to the other. It's so blatant that I'm not even sure why they bother to print the paper cards at all other than to inflate the card count on the box. EDIT: Also it gives them excuse to make the entire separate Bowman Chrome product, but I think that's the biggest part of the issue here.

[QUOTE=tyrith;17349790][B]Flipping doesn't work unless there are people that actually want to own the card/slab, otherwise it's just a pyramid scheme that rapidly dies.[/B]

And that's same issue with Bowman paper - it's not the same as a normal parallel because parallels are typically a one per pack thing, or less. Instead, you get a pack that has 20 paper cards and 5 nicer, thicker, more premium feeling cards right next to each other. It's not just a question of rarity or color - the entire experience of the card has an immediate, direct comparison that makes one superior to the other. It's so blatant that I'm not even sure why they bother to print the paper cards at all other than to inflate the card count on the box. EDIT: Also it gives them excuse to make the entire separate Bowman Chrome product, but I think that's the biggest part of the issue here.[/QUOTE]

Ideally, you’d be right, but this isn’t how the hobby works. The hobby market isn’t that simple - as counterintuitive as that might sound.

The unregulated hobby “market” is easily distorted because people do different things with cards; this “market” is not difficult to manipulate.

Basically the card market is not a classic market working with simple supply & demand most naive people assume it is. You may have heard of the phrase “hobby good does not equal baseball good”, and I’m sure you know all 1/1s aren’t worth a million $ each.

[QUOTE=eye4talent;17348831]Sometime in the past six months or so, there had been a surge in Topps Chrome prices. The trend routinely gets mentioned in the various threads, but from what I can recall, we haven’t had a focused discussion on the matter.

[B]The conventional wisdom is that the surge is due to an influx of new baseball collectors, who are crossing over from other sports—where they’re accustomed to shiny Panini products.[/B]

Is that it? Are there any other reasons why the tide shifted? Is Chrome dominance here to stay, or is it going to continue going back and forth and/or shifting to other products?

And if it is, indeed, driven by the newbies, is this crowd of hardcore collectors, here in the Blowout forum, staying the course and collecting what they like, Nd finding the lull in paper to be a great buying opportunity?

Personally, I like both paper and Chrome (and Topps and Bowman, for that matter). So, I collect from across the board—except that some levels of Chrome have become difficult to pursue. But I grab what I can.

I’m curious to hear your thoughts.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro[/QUOTE]

I think this is mostly it. But perhaps it's also the constant ebbs and flows in the hobby. When I got back into it in 2018 I absolutely loathed Topps Chrome - and not just because it was a savage product to rip. I simply didn't like the look of it. I loved Bowman Chrome and flagship.

For some reason this year I have started to appreciate Topps Chrome a lot more than before. I have no idea why, but my opinion of it has gone from disliking it immensely, to really liking it.

[QUOTE=BaseballKing;17350409]I think this is mostly it. But perhaps it's also the constant ebbs and flows in the hobby. When I got back into it in 2018 I absolutely loathed Topps Chrome - and not just because it was a savage product to rip. I simply didn't like the look of it. I loved Bowman Chrome and flagship.

For some reason this year I have started to appreciate Topps Chrome a lot more than before. I have no idea why, but my opinion of it has gone from disliking it immensely, to really liking it.[/QUOTE]

It's possible it's just the design of a given year looking better or worse to you than other years. IMO 2018 Topps Chrome is pretty ugly and doesn't bring out the best of a chrome product - similar to something like 2020 Stadium Club Chrome. But I think 2019 and 2020 Topps Chrome are pretty great. 2020 Bowman Sterling looks incredible to me and 2019 Bowman Sterling looks like crap. The eye is a fickle thing sometimes.

[QUOTE=tyrith;17350449][B]It's possible it's just the design of a given year looking better or worse to you than other years.[/B] IMO 2018 Topps Chrome is pretty ugly and doesn't bring out the best of a chrome product - similar to something like 2020 Stadium Club Chrome. But I think 2019 and 2020 Topps Chrome are pretty great. 2020 Bowman Sterling looks incredible to me and 2019 Bowman Sterling looks like crap. The eye is a fickle thing sometimes.[/QUOTE]

That's a fair point.

Also, in 2018 I didn't care much for about half of the products. Now there are almost none that I dislike.

It takes a while to gain an appreciation for certain products. Unlike many folk who have been in the hobby for a very long time and get introduced gradually to each new product, newbies come in and have nigh on 40 products to choose from. I didn't much like Archives, Heritage - and especially GQ - in the beginning but love all three now.

Again, not much I don't like nowadays.

[QUOTE=tyrith;17349750]People don't enjoy feeling like they are buying devalued cards. If there were Topps Chrome cards in every flagship pack, I don't think people would nearly be as into the flagship paper cards as they are now. Also, the chrome cards means the unit price of the sealed product is going to be a lot higher and therefore less accessible.

[B]Bowman paper is essentially valueless - it doesn't even ship in most breaks [/B]and as has been mentioned, the parallels are worth significantly less than identically numbered Chrome parallels. I think having them literally side by side makes it easy for the Bowman paper to be seen as a "lesser" product in a way that isn't true for Topps vs Topps Chrome.[/QUOTE]

I diagree there. I sold my Wander and Jasson Dominguez paper 1sts for $25 each. I think Wander is still at about that price now.

And I don't quite get why people would want to go into a break knowing they're not getting the paper. Maybe it's just me because I'm not much into breaks but it does strike me as odd( I understand why the breaker would not wish to get bogged down shipping paper) that people are ok with not getting Bowman paper.

I like Bowman paper :)

When people move from other sports to baseball, the shiny stuff will win. In those other sports, Chrome is King. You can name multiple key RC's of legends/young superstars from Topps Chrome or Panini Prizm. Heck, with your average new collector, Prizm is their "base brand". So with a transition into BB, they stick with it, Topps Chrome becomes their base brand with all those shiny cards.

[QUOTE=Archangel1775;17350604][B]When people move from other sports to baseball, the shiny stuff will win. [/B]In those other sports, Chrome is King. You can name multiple key RC's of legends/young superstars from Topps Chrome or Panini Prizm. Heck, with your average new collector, Prizm is their "base brand". So with a transition into BB, they stick with it, Topps Chrome becomes their base brand with all those shiny cards.[/QUOTE]

Hard to disagree with that.

[QUOTE=Soxfanguy;17349084]I’ve never understood why PSA 10 US300 are cheaper than HMT55 PSA 10s. US300 is far harder to gem[/QUOTE]

This is one of those things that people say a lot, but doesn't make any actual sense at all.

Buyers in the market don't have any reason to care about gem rate. They would only care about how many total gems are out there.

Right now, there are ~9500 gems out there from ~10,500 HMT55s submitted, and ~17,000 gems out there from ~25,000 US300s submitted. Gem rate is lower for sure on US300s, but that's just the submitter's problem. End result is still almost twice as many US300 gems in the marketplace compared to HMT55s. US300 gems are way more common, which makes them less valuable.

[QUOTE=dream34;17349140]I believe some others have mentioned it over the years that the main cause of the Flagship boom was that Trout did not have a Chrome version of his flagship. The logic was that all other Update's should be THE RC card to get for players. Never bought into it much, but I do like the Flagship Parallels long term *if it is their 1st Flagship card. [B]Looks like it was more of a Flagship boom that could be the blip on the longterm radar. It's not so much that winds are shifting away from Paper as it is things are returning to how they've been for a few decades.[/B]

Whether it's Marvin Harrison/Drew Brees/Aaron Rodgers in FB; Kobe/Lebron/Curry in BSK; or even the same sport with Jeter/Cabrera/Mauer in BB, Chrome's have always sold better than their Flagship counterparts despite the higher Gem Rate.[/QUOTE]

Came here to say this, and agree with this comment

[QUOTE=brewtown107;17350876]This is one of those things that people say a lot, but doesn't make any actual sense at all.

Buyers in the market don't have any reason to care about gem rate. They would only care about how many total gems are out there.

Right now, there are ~9500 gems out there from ~10,500 HMT55s submitted, and ~17,000 gems out there from ~25,000 US300s submitted. Gem rate is lower for sure on US300s, but that's just the submitter's problem. End result is still almost twice as many US300 gems in the marketplace compared to HMT55s. US300 gems are way more common, which makes them less valuable.[/QUOTE]

While what you wrote makes sense, I’m afraid there really isn’t much rational thinking in anything when it comes to pop counts and modern cards...just good ol’ simple herd mentality.

[QUOTE=BaseballKing;17350596]I diagree there. I sold my Wander and Jasson Dominguez paper 1sts for $25 each. I think Wander is still at about that price now.



And I don't quite get why people would want to go into a break knowing they're not getting the paper. Maybe it's just me because I'm not much into breaks but it does strike me as odd( I understand why the breaker would not wish to get bogged down shipping paper) that people are ok with not getting Bowman paper.



I like Bowman paper :)[/QUOTE]



I’m a Bowman paper fan, too—at least when it comes to the parallels. Even when they were just the orange /250 and light blue /499, I liked them. (Hard to beat a Buster Posey 2010 Bowman orange /250!)

But I have to imagine the current offerings of red /5, orange /25, etc. will be viewed favorably in the long-term—as long as you have the right players.


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[QUOTE=MoreToppsPlease;17351259]While what you wrote makes sense, I’m afraid there really isn’t much rational thinking in anything when it comes to pop counts and modern cards...just good ol’ simple herd mentality.[/QUOTE]

It definitely feels like things are starting to correct in that regard. The PSA logjam has hidden some of the pop report in the 2019/2020 print run increases, because some people subbed cards at higher tiers or subbed earlier, but there are still a bazillion in the queue.

[QUOTE=tyrith;17352046]It definitely feels like things are starting to correct in that regard. The PSA logjam has hidden some of the pop report in the 2019/2020 print run increases, because some people subbed cards at higher tiers or subbed earlier, but there are still a bazillion in the queue.[/QUOTE]

When it comes to slabs, there will always be times where none of it will make sense, partially because many people have no clue...or care... what the pop counts are.

[QUOTE=BaseballKing;17350409]I think this is mostly it. But perhaps it's also the constant ebbs and flows in the hobby. When I got back into it in 2018 I absolutely loathed Topps Chrome - and not just because it was a savage product to rip. I simply didn't like the look of it. I loved Bowman Chrome and flagship.

For some reason this year I have started to appreciate Topps Chrome a lot more than before. I have no idea why, but my opinion of it has gone from disliking it immensely, to really liking it.[/QUOTE]

We must have fallen victim to the same voodoo mind control, because I'm the same. When I got back into the hobby I didn't care about Topps chrome at all and I couldn't even tell you why. I just knew I wanted Bowman Chrome, it was king, and it was all I cared about.

Then, sometime around the end of Spring Training this year, I suddenly only wanted Topps chrome. Topps Chrome, Topps Chrome, gotta have more Topps Chrome. Currently, it's still all I care about. I simply don't like Bowman Chrome anymore and I don't know why.

Please Chrome, stay away from Heritage. TIA.

[QUOTE=BigRedMachine80;17352247]We must have fallen victim to the same voodoo mind control, because I'm the same. When I got back into the hobby I didn't care about Topps chrome at all and I couldn't even tell you why. I just knew I wanted Bowman Chrome, it was king, and it was all I cared about.

Then, sometime around the end of Spring Training this year, I suddenly only wanted Topps chrome. Topps Chrome, Topps Chrome, gotta have more Topps Chrome. Currently, it's still all I care about. I simply don't like Bowman Chrome anymore and I don't know why.[/QUOTE]

Because you want what's popular and in demand. When I got back into collecting two years ago, I'd never heard of a rookie debut card. I began to hate them just as much everyone else. Bowman paper? Wasn't around when I was collecting before either. I won't touch it. Is there any logical reason for either? No, other than the market says they are plentiful and no one wants them

[QUOTE=BigRedMachine80;17352247]We must have fallen victim to the same voodoo mind control, because I'm the same. When I got back into the hobby I didn't care about Topps chrome at all and I couldn't even tell you why. I just knew I wanted Bowman Chrome, it was king, and it was all I cared about.

Then, sometime around the end of Spring Training this year, I suddenly only wanted Topps chrome. Topps Chrome, Topps Chrome, gotta have more Topps Chrome. Currently, it's still all I care about. [B]I simply don't like Bowman Chrome anymore [/B]and I don't know why.[/QUOTE]

This is very strange. Very strange indeed.

Wind of Change: Shifting from Paper to Chrome
 

[QUOTE=Chicosbailbonds;17352271]Please Chrome, stay away from Heritage. TIA.[/QUOTE]


Wait... what??? Hasn’t chrome been part of Heritage for years?

And besides ROA, it is where the most value seems to be going?


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[QUOTE=pewe;17352619]Wait... what??? Hasn’t chrome been part of Heritage for years?

And besides ROA, it is where the most value seems to be going?[/QUOTE]

The Chrome in Heritage debases it.

It will be even worse with Heritage Sapphire Chrome, Heritage Sapphire Chrome X and Heritage Sapphire Chrome X Mini 3D releasing later this year.

[QUOTE=MoreToppsPlease;17352974]The Chrome in Heritage debases it.

It will be even worse with Heritage Sapphire Chrome, Heritage Sapphire Chrome X and Heritage Sapphire Chrome X Mini 3D releasing later this year.[/QUOTE]


It’s the creativity that Topps shows that really impresses me ;)


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[QUOTE=pewe;17352619]Wait... what??? Hasn’t chrome been part of Heritage for years?

[/QUOTE]

since day one

[QUOTE=pewe;17352984]It’s the creativity that Topps shows that really impresses me ;)[/QUOTE]

Or that they are able to make some people think that any one of these parallel products is fundamentally different than another :coffee:

Paper got huge with 18 update /thread

Trout update too like Dream mentioned on page one, but honestly Trout update didn’t shoot 1000% until people where scrambling for 18 update.

They actually helped each other.

Paper parallels are the cream of the crop in my eyes. Long term best stash. Paper is iconic and chrome has been around since... 96??? So 25 years of chrome to go on?? No matter what anyone says, that’s not long enough

[QUOTE=Wrigs37;17353126]Paper got huge with 18 update /thread

Trout update too like Dream mentioned on page one, but honestly Trout update didn’t shoot 1000% until people where scrambling for 18 update.

They actually helped each other.

[B]Paper parallels are the cream of the crop in my eyes. Long term best stash. Paper is iconic and chrome has been around since... 96??? So 25 years of chrome to go on?? No matter what anyone says, that’s not long enough[/B][/QUOTE]

I do think Gem Mint graded paper parallels have upside as most are condition sensitive. That'll be determined by the player and their career though. As for Chrome being around since 96.....looking at some of the shows on Youtube...it overlaps all generations of collectors. Many, many young people in the hobby are coming over from basketball and that's all they know. 1996 is an iconic set in that sport and Chrome is King. As for baseball, that's yet to be determined but with Soto, Acuna and Tatis....that same trend is following suit with the Sapphire brand particularly. Refractors are seeing bigger numbers lately too

[QUOTE=Archangel1775;17353193]I do think Gem Mint graded paper parallels have upside as most are condition sensitive. That'll be determined by the player and their career though. As for Chrome being around since 96.....looking at some of the shows on Youtube...it overlaps all generations of collectors. Many, many young people in the hobby are coming over from basketball and that's all they know. 1996 is an iconic set in that sport and Chrome is King. As for baseball, that's yet to be determined but with Soto, Acuna and Tatis....that same trend is following suit with the Sapphire brand particularly. Refractors are seeing bigger numbers lately too[/QUOTE]

Oh I whole heartedly agree with all that. I love chrome, I just think the High graded paper parallels that sell for 50% of its chrome counterpart in today’s market wins out in the absolute long haul. I mean, this is just me, but I’d prefer to have a black paper #ed /60-70 in PSA 10 than a red /5 PSA chrome 10. I’d rather have an Independence Day /76 PSA 10 over an Orange /25 PSA 10 chrome all day every day. Both papers in the comparison are considerably cheaper than the chrome VS examples

[QUOTE=MoreToppsPlease;17352974][B]The Chrome in Heritage debases it. [/B]

It will be even worse with Heritage Sapphire Chrome, Heritage Sapphire Chrome X and Heritage Sapphire Chrome X Mini 3D releasing later this year.[/QUOTE]

No,no,no.

Heritage refractors - especially the black ones - are some of the nicest cards in the hobby.

[QUOTE=MoreToppsPlease;17352974]The Chrome in Heritage debases it.

It will be even worse with [B]Heritage Sapphire Chrome, Heritage Sapphire Chrome X and Heritage Sapphire Chrome X Mini 3D[/B] releasing later this year.[/QUOTE]

I'm not keen on the Sapphire everything myself.

A Topps Chrome Sapphire card is as about as nice as it gets but seeing it (probably inevitably) turn up as stand alone Bowman products when they already have Atomic parallels was pretty disappointing.

It will be interesting to see where this goes. The dilution (innovation?) of all products is in full swing and the market will dictate which ones thrive and which ones don't.

In any event there is absolutely nothing one can do about it other than to buy it or not to buy it.

[QUOTE=BaseballKing;17350596]I diagree there. I sold my Wander and Jasson Dominguez paper 1sts for $25 each. I think Wander is still at about that price now.

And I don't quite get why people would want to go into a break knowing they're not getting the paper. Maybe it's just me because I'm not much into breaks but it does strike me as odd( I understand why the breaker would not wish to get bogged down shipping paper) that people are ok with not getting Bowman paper.

I like Bowman paper :)[/QUOTE]

I am also sure breakers don't ship paper cause they can double (maybe triple?) down on profits. Save on shipping for them, sell the break priced at all the cards and only give out half, and then sell the paper of players who are doing well or in lots via eBay.

Just my .02

[QUOTE=Wrigs37;17353212]Oh I whole heartedly agree with all that. I love chrome, I just think the High graded paper parallels that sell for 50% of its chrome counterpart in today’s market wins out in the absolute long haul. I mean, this is just me, but I’d prefer to have a black paper #ed /60-70 in PSA 10 than a red /5 PSA chrome 10. I’d rather have an Independence Day /76 PSA 10 over an Orange /25 PSA 10 chrome all day every day. Both papers in the comparison are considerably cheaper than the chrome VS examples[/QUOTE]

While I don't expect the market to ever switch over to your preferences, your preferences definitely set you up to get to a collection that makes you happier for less money than if you were like most of us and preferred the chrome cards. My personal expectations don't have the market swinging back to paper to square up that parallel difference, but more power to you - I've said several times on these forums that the best advantage you can have over other collectors is to want things that other people don't want as much.

[QUOTE=tyrith;17353425]While I don't expect the market to ever switch over to your preferences, your preferences definitely set you up to get to a collection that makes you happier for less money than if you were like most of us and preferred the chrome cards. My personal expectations don't have the market swinging back to paper to square up that parallel difference, but more power to you - I've said several times on these forums that the best advantage you can have over other collectors is to want things that other people don't want as much.[/QUOTE]

Zigging when people are zagging 😉

[QUOTE=Wrigs37;17353654]Zigging when people are zagging 😉[/QUOTE]

Correct. I bought a ton of Topps Chrome in 2016-2019, but now I'm buying Bowman Chrome from 2019-2020.

However, I still buy more flagship then anything. It's not going anywhere, ever.

I love #/d Topps Chrome parallels. You know, in advance, exactly how many of those are available. If you have a Gold #/50, you've got something pretty special. Never mind anything numbered even lower.
Complete shift to Topps Chrome for me.

[QUOTE=BaseballKing;17353243]No,no,no.

Heritage refractors - especially the black ones - are some of the nicest cards in the hobby.[/QUOTE]

I should have been more specific, I dont want a dedicated Chrome Heritage set. The topps black chrome parallel are very nice.

What I find perplexing is that there is usually a tilt one way or the other—often a considerable tilt, particularly when it comes to the parallels.

There are 50 Topps Chrome golds and 50 Father’s Day blues, 99 Vintage Stocks and 99 Chrome greens. Some of us prefer paper, some prefer Chrome, but most of us like both—and I think we all like rare cards of good players. So, why such disparities? (I know, a lot of it is following the crowd in the moment, and most market activity focuses on young players who likely don’t have lasting power.)

In these cases, I like to apply the HOF test. If there were Derek Jeter Topps black and Topps Chrome orange rookies, how would the market treat them? There would probably be a lot of love for both. Same with Topps gold and regular refractors—although, the more common refractors are a lot easier to come by, and these days you can get them in prism, pink, sepia, and X.

If Trout had a 2011 Topps Chrome Update and all its parallels, would the market forget about the paper black, gold, red, etc? I doubt it, right? They’d all be monster cards.

Of course, these are players who’ve withstood the test of time, and so more cards become more significant as a player becomes entrenched as historically significant figures in the game.

Everything eventually rises in value if the player is special.

I bought into 60 cases of Bowman Draft one year. Sold enough to break even and still owned 200+ Bowman Draft Soto paper base. What cost .05cents, sold for $1 each after his debut.

Tatis and Gleyber has been a monsters for me with chrome, refractors, and minor color.

These were not even "1st Bowman"

I got a different approach these days, but still with the same mindset.

[QUOTE=eye4talent;17354439]
If Trout had a 2011 Topps Chrome, would the market forget about the paper black, gold, red, etc? I doubt it, right? They’d all be monster cards.
[/QUOTE]

Trout made Flagship what it is today

if he were in 2011 Topps Chrome, the landscape would be different today

of that, i am sure.

Interesting conversation, and great input from the board.

Why has Finest taken such a back seat to Chrome, when it's a premium stock shiny product with even more history?

[QUOTE=3rdpedal;17354776]Interesting conversation, and great input from the board.

Why has Finest taken such a back seat to Chrome, when it's a premium stock shiny product with even more history?[/QUOTE]

I agree, it's great to hear the strong takes from so many knowledgeable members. I've learned a lot.
I think the main reason Finest lags is that its pedigree is tied to those early superstar refractor cards and not so much iconic RCs. It's release date early in the RC year also disqualified so many key rookies from being included throughout the years (all the Update guys).