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-   -   Clayton Kershaw - Will a dominant postseason do much to his hobby value? (https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1415344)

Nostalgia 10-02-2020 07:45 AM

Clayton Kershaw - Will a dominant postseason do much to his hobby value?
 
He's arguably the best pitcher since 2000, and may go down as a top 5 pitcher ever. His regular season stats definitely support it. The only blemish on his resume is his postseason failures.

You can get Kershaw cards relatively cheap, but pitcher card hobby value is never that high.

I think his 2008 Topps UH is a very nice card.

tonedef2oo8 10-02-2020 07:53 AM

No it will not .

actionbryan 10-02-2020 07:54 AM

It’ll certainly help. Sort of analogous to Drew Brees , great career and at least one championship is icing on the cake. Maybe not a perfect example though because of Brees passing records

I own nothing of him but if he pulls a 2014 Madbum , I’ll probably pay the hyped pricing for his Rc

unclemonkey 10-02-2020 08:05 AM

I don't see it.

He seems fairly valued ATM.

2010GBPackers 10-02-2020 08:10 AM

He's a long-term bet. HOFers in the twighlight of their career don't fare well in our current hobby market. But with a strong postseason, (and he had a great start to that last night) I can see people's eyes being opened and noticing how undervalued his cards are for being an all-time Top 10 pitcher (at least).

Thor34 10-02-2020 08:24 AM

Yes..

coachnip13 10-02-2020 08:32 AM

[QUOTE=2010GBPackers;16500218]He's a long-term bet. HOFers [B]in the twighlight of their career[/B] don't fare well in our current hobby market. But with a strong postseason, (and he had a great start to that last night) I can see people's eyes being opened and noticing how undervalued his cards are for being an all-time Top 10 pitcher (at least).[/QUOTE]

He's 32.

speedyjg13 10-02-2020 08:39 AM

I don't think so

Nostalgia 10-02-2020 08:43 AM

[QUOTE=coachnip13;16500273]He's 32.[/QUOTE]

Looking at his regular season stats......there is definitely an argument to be made that he is a top 5 (and maybe the best) regular season pitcher all-time.

He can have a few more great years...but he can also start to regress quickly. Last season he had his first 3.00 era season since his ROOKIE season!...regression maybe? Many thought so. Then he was dominant again this season. His career stats are mindblowing.

I get why Randy Johnson and Greg Maddux PSA 10 rookies don't hold too much value. But, Pedro Martinez Bowman PSA 10 rookies go for what? $150-200? Was 1992 still considered the junk era? (Pedro's 1991 UP PSA 10 is at $50.)

employee8 10-02-2020 08:46 AM

He did enough last night for my raw update to sell online

Nostalgia 10-02-2020 08:47 AM

[QUOTE=employee8;16500313]He did enough last night for my raw update to sell online[/QUOTE]

HAHA. What were you asking for? Was it on the market for a while? Or did you put it up after the game?

ewokpelts 10-02-2020 09:07 AM

He would have had a ring in 2017 and 2018, BBBBBBBUUUUUUUUTTTTT............

coachnip13 10-02-2020 09:09 AM

[QUOTE=ewokpelts;16500384]He would have had a ring in 2017 and 2018, BBBBBBBUUUUUUUUTTTTT............[/QUOTE]

........but they didn't win four games in the World Series? Seems pretty obvious.

BBases31 10-02-2020 09:11 AM

I've been saying for a while he's one of the most underrated in the hobby. The unquestioned best pitcher of his generation and best pitcher in the last 50 years, who's only 32, and on the best team in the baseball. He's already pretty expensive but he could easily retire as one of the 3 best pitchers of all time at this pace. His rookies and BC Autos are rare compared to modern day stuff so I think his stuff has higher potential to go up than people think. His 2008 Update rookie only has 2k total graded with 850 PSA 10. His Update Chrome Rookie only has 48 graded with 22 10s

Triple B 10-02-2020 09:14 AM

You know it’s 2020 when Kershaw is bringing the noise in the playoffs...

MJRaider 10-02-2020 09:18 AM

[QUOTE=Triple B;16500408]You know it’s 2020 when Kershaw is bringing the noise in the playoffs...[/QUOTE]

True. :(

Nostalgia 10-02-2020 09:32 AM

[QUOTE=BBases31;16500395]I've been saying for a while he's one of the most underrated in the hobby. The unquestioned best pitcher of his generation and best pitcher in the last 50 years, who's only 32, and on the best team in the baseball. He's already pretty expensive but he could easily retire as one of the 3 best pitchers of all time at this pace. His rookies and BC Autos are rare compared to modern day stuff so I think his stuff has higher potential to go up than people think. His 2008 Update rookie only has 2k total graded with 850 PSA 10. His Update Chrome Rookie only has 48 graded with 22 10s[/QUOTE]

The chrome UH is a beautiful card. Out of my price range now :(

I'm going to compare the pop report of Kershaw Topps UH rookie to some other generational pitchers.

Randy Johnson Upper Deck: 28132 graded; 4367 PSA 10
Randy Johnson Topps Traded: 12397 graded; 3101 PSA 10
Randy Johnson 1989 Donruss: 7589 graded; 1183 PSA 10

Greg Maddux 1987 Donruss: 28961 graded; 2457 PSA 10
Greg Maddux 1987 Topps Traded: 13127 graded; 3789 PSA 10
Greg Maddux Topps Traded Tiffany 3097 graded; 584 PSA 10
Greg Maddux 1987 Fleer Glossy: 6809 graded; 892 PSA 10

Pedro Martinez 1991 UD Final Edition: 22778 graded; 3759 PSA 10
Pedro Martinez 1992 Bowman: 9917 graded; 1551 PSA 10

Clayton Kershaw Topps UH: 2010 graded; 879 PSA 10
Clayton Kershaw Topps UH GOLD: 60 graded; 20 PSA 10
Clayton Kershaw Topps UH GOLD FOIL: 103 graded; 41 PSA 10
Clayton Kershaw Topps UH BLACK: 4 graded; 1 PSA 10
Clayton Kershaw Topps Chrome UH: 48 graded; 22 PSA 10

Danderlion 10-02-2020 09:32 AM

If he stays dominant through the entire postseason and the dodgers win, should see some nice upward movement in his hobby value.

Last night was a great game, but he will need several more of these to move the needle I think.

unclemonkey 10-02-2020 09:36 AM

To many missed opportunities at immortality.

Great HOF worthy pitcher.

Feels kinda like Manning getting that second ring on the backs of others. Just meh...

NeedChapmans 10-02-2020 09:38 AM

[QUOTE=unclemonkey;16500496]To many missed opportunities at immortality.

Great HOF worthy pitcher.

Feels kinda like Manning getting that second ring on the backs of others.[/QUOTE]

Manning was dragged through that season and the post-season. Kershaw has been reborn it seems; his velocity is up and he's dominating again. I don't the two are quite comparable IMHO.

That said, it's Kershaw. We go through this every / single / year. Give him time.

2infinitybeyond 10-02-2020 09:54 AM

I love Kershaw. That being said, I don't know if he was dominant last night or if the Brewers are just that bad. There were a few hangers in there that the Brewers just missed.

Regardless, Kershaw is a legend to me and I don't believe all this "can't pitch in postseason" BS. He was truly dominant in Game 1 of the 2017 WS and that Game 5 "collapse" was the Astros cheating their way to a ring.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

Coug46n2 10-02-2020 10:08 AM

Hankook tires really are good tires. At least I like mine.

MoreToppsPlease 10-02-2020 10:20 AM

Yes - a resurgent veteran HOF-caliber player always adds to his mystique and interest...especially with pitchers!

Reminds me of Verlander and even Ryan.

signal_fifty 10-02-2020 10:24 AM

[QUOTE=BBases31;16500395]I've been saying for a while he's one of the most underrated in the hobby. The unquestioned best pitcher of his generation and best pitcher in the last 50 years, who's only 32, and on the best team in the baseball. He's already pretty expensive but he could easily retire as one of the 3 best pitchers of all time at this pace. His rookies and BC Autos are rare compared to modern day stuff so I think his stuff has higher potential to go up than people think. His 2008 Update rookie only has 2k total graded with 850 PSA 10. His Update Chrome Rookie only has 48 graded with 22 10s[/QUOTE]

Best pitcher in the last 50 years?!? You are out of your mind.

oddstuff 10-02-2020 10:26 AM

Last night is a start...to really get the fire going, to add more fuel to the spark, he would need to throw a couple of no run games and cap it off with pitching the clincher to win the World Series with double digit Ks. He's HOF but to ignite his hobby value, that's what is needed...otherwise there will be slow incremental growth as he piles on the numbers before retirement.

At age 32, Kershaw should get to 3000 Ks barring major injuries, 250 wins if he stays with a winning team (contract with the Dodgers is up after the 2021 season). 1 MVP, 3 Cy Youngs/2 runner ups. In this era of 6 inning pitchers, he, Verlander, Scherzer and Greinke may be the last ones to get to 3000 Ks for a while.

Nostalgia 10-02-2020 10:27 AM

[QUOTE=signal_fifty;16500707]Best pitcher in the last 50 years?!? You are out of your mind.[/QUOTE]

Why would someone be out of their mind to say that? He's definitely in the discussion.

blitzaceod 10-02-2020 10:51 AM

I might be a little biased, but I hope it doesn't go up TOO much.
That being said, it's hard to see a huge price jump for a pitcher, even if it is Kershaw. Scherzer didn't take a massive jump after last year and most would argue they are similar in rank. On top of that, it's not like his autos are dirt cheap right now. Many still hold in the 75-150 range which is already pretty good prices.
If they win a WS and his prices do jump, I may have to move a few things

djdevon 10-02-2020 10:54 AM

Give it time Doyyer fans. Curse-Shaw will self-destruct. He's like Chuck Knoblauch fielding a grounder at the hot corner. All he has to do is throw it to first, but...AAAHAHARRRURHGHGH

dfenno 10-02-2020 11:06 AM

[QUOTE=Nostalgia;16500473]The chrome UH is a beautiful card. Out of my price range now :(

I'm going to compare the pop report of Kershaw Topps UH rookie to some other generational pitchers.

Randy Johnson Upper Deck: 28132 graded; 4367 PSA 10
Randy Johnson Topps Traded: 12397 graded; 3101 PSA 10
Randy Johnson 1989 Donruss: 7589 graded; 1183 PSA 10

Greg Maddux 1987 Donruss: 28961 graded; 2457 PSA 10
Greg Maddux 1987 Topps Traded: 13127 graded; 3789 PSA 10
Greg Maddux Topps Traded Tiffany 3097 graded; 584 PSA 10
Greg Maddux 1987 Fleer Glossy: 6809 graded; 892 PSA 10

Pedro Martinez 1991 UD Final Edition: 22778 graded; 3759 PSA 10
Pedro Martinez 1992 Bowman: 9917 graded; 1551 PSA 10

Clayton Kershaw Topps UH: 2010 graded; 879 PSA 10
Clayton Kershaw Topps UH GOLD: 60 graded; 20 PSA 10
Clayton Kershaw Topps UH GOLD FOIL: 103 graded; 41 PSA 10
Clayton Kershaw Topps UH BLACK: 4 graded; 1 PSA 10
Clayton Kershaw Topps Chrome UH: 48 graded; 22 PSA 10[/QUOTE]


Yep. I think HOF collecting will totally change when the 2001 and later RC classes start getting in. There are only so many Golds, Blacks, etc. and there won’t be enough to go around.

On the original question, I definitely think if he can change the narrative about his post season performance then long-term values will rise. It’s been the biggest knock on him. But one game doesn’t do it. He likely has a ton of playoff innings remaining in his career. It’s a story that remains to be written.

Lonewolf 10-02-2020 11:08 AM

[QUOTE=2infinitybeyond;16500584]I love Kershaw. That being said, I don't know if he was dominant last night or if the Brewers are just that bad. There were a few hangers in there that the Brewers just missed.

Regardless, Kershaw is a legend to me and I don't believe all this "can't pitch in postseason" BS. He was truly dominant in Game 1 of the 2017 WS and that Game 5 "collapse" was the Astros cheating their way to a ring.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk[/QUOTE]

Agreed! Somebody actually pays attention.

The Nasty Nati 10-02-2020 12:39 PM

[QUOTE=Coug46n2;16500647]Hankook tires really are good tires. At least I like mine.[/QUOTE]

Lol that commercial makes zero sense. If he's such a great pitcher why have the entire commercial be about him saving a home run that he almost gave up.

The Nasty Nati 10-02-2020 12:42 PM

[QUOTE=dfenno;16500870]Yep. I think HOF collecting will totally change when the 2001 and later RC classes start getting in. There are only so many Golds, Blacks, etc. and there won’t be enough to go around.

On the original question, I definitely think if he can change the narrative about his post season performance then long-term values will rise. It’s been the biggest knock on him. But one game doesn’t do it. He likely has a ton of playoff innings remaining in his career. It’s a story that remains to be written.[/QUOTE]


Personally, I don't think HOF collectors will care about acquiring every single parallel version. There will just be too many to go after for every modern HOF player who has a card made after 2001.

2010GBPackers 10-02-2020 12:57 PM

Did you know you can get his '06 BC gold refractor auto for $4k???!!! Sure, it's an 8.5, but still. Luis Robert's ugly green refractor sells for more than that....

#notmycard

mfw13 10-02-2020 01:00 PM

He's a first ballot HOFer no matter what, but a dominant postseason that ends with the Dodgers as WS champs certainly changes the narrative in his favor.

ewokpelts 10-02-2020 01:06 PM

[QUOTE=coachnip13;16500391]........but they didn't win four games in the World Series? Seems pretty obvious.[/QUOTE]

Are you an Astros or Red Sox fan?

Nostalgia 10-02-2020 02:52 PM

How many Kershaw blacks are in circulation?

BBases31 10-02-2020 02:56 PM

[QUOTE=signal_fifty;16500707]Best pitcher in the last 50 years?!? You are out of your mind.[/QUOTE]

Care to share who was better since 1970? Guess who is #1 in ERA in the last 50 years among pitchers with at least 2000 innings? Kershaw, by alot. He's in 1st at 2.43, 2nd at 2.82 and only two others under 3.00. FIP? #1 in that too.

Dominance in his era? That's Kershaw again too. 1st in ERA- at 63(this is a measure of ERA vs your competition at the time)

WizardofOz1982 10-02-2020 03:49 PM

[QUOTE=BBases31;16501941]Care to share who was better since 1970? Guess who is #1 in ERA in the last 50 years among pitchers with at least 2000 innings? Kershaw, by alot. He's in 1st at 2.43, 2nd at 2.82 and only two others under 3.00. FIP? #1 in that too.

Dominance in his era? That's Kershaw again too. 1st in ERA- at 63(this is a measure of ERA vs your competition at the time)[/QUOTE]

Clemens, Ryan, Johnson, Maddux, Pedro? All five of them as it stands now.

2,333 innings of 2.75 FIP (Kershaw) or 5,159 innings of 2.96 FIP (Ryan)? The problem with your argument is you're not taking Kershaw's eventual decline into consideration. Do you think he's still going to be running a 2.75 FIP when he's done? Not a chance.

dfenno 10-02-2020 03:56 PM

[QUOTE=The Nasty Nati;16501322]Personally, I don't think HOF collectors will care about acquiring every single parallel version. There will just be too many to go after for every modern HOF player who has a card made after 2001.[/QUOTE]

I think the focus will be on black and gold. Blacks will likely rarely see the light of day once they get put away in collections, though, so most of the action will be in golds.

dfenno 10-02-2020 03:58 PM

[QUOTE=Nostalgia;16501918]How many Kershaw blacks are in circulation?[/QUOTE]

57 printed. Probably a handful sell annually.

BBases31 10-02-2020 04:07 PM

[QUOTE=WizardofOz1982;16502148]Clemens, Ryan, Johnson, Maddux, Pedro? All five of them as it stands now.

2,333 innings of 2.75 FIP (Kershaw) or 5,159 innings of 2.96 FIP (Ryan)? The problem with your argument is you're not taking Kershaw's eventual decline into consideration. Do you think he's still going to be running a 2.75 FIP when he's done? Not a chance.[/QUOTE]

Nolan Ryan's FIP was the product of lower HRs in that era. Compare FIP- which measures them vs their peers and Ryan was an 82 and Kershaw was 69.

Kershaw's decline? What decline? He's had an ERA over 3 once in his career and it was 3.03. He had a 2.16 ERA this season and could've been Cy if he had the innings along with his highest average FB velocity in years. He's only 32. There's no reason he can't follow Scherzer/Verlander's path and still be one of the best pitchers in baseball well into his mid 30s. [I]When[/I] he starts to decline into something other than one of the best pitchers in baseball you can asses what his decline will look like. As it stands right now he's the most dominant pitcher in the last 50 years, even if you just want to measure each pitcher's first 12 seasons

cardsin47 10-02-2020 04:08 PM

[QUOTE=BBases31;16500395]The [I][B]unquestioned[/B][/I] best pitcher of his generation and best pitcher in the last 50 years [/QUOTE]

Questioned

Nostalgia 10-02-2020 04:19 PM

[QUOTE=dfenno;16502178]57 printed. Probably a handful sell annually.[/QUOTE]

I think there's just 2 on Ebay now.

1 is raw for 1500...but all 4 corners and some of edges are white
1 is BGS 8.5 for 4000

WizardofOz1982 10-02-2020 06:29 PM

[QUOTE=BBases31;16502229]Nolan Ryan's FIP was the product of lower HRs in that era. Compare FIP- which measures them vs their peers and Ryan was an 82 and Kershaw was 69.

Kershaw's decline? What decline? He's had an ERA over 3 once in his career and it was 3.03. He had a 2.16 ERA this season and could've been Cy if he had the innings along with his highest average FB velocity in years. He's only 32. There's no reason he can't follow Scherzer/Verlander's path and still be one of the best pitchers in baseball well into his mid 30s. [I]When[/I] he starts to decline into something other than one of the best pitchers in baseball you can asses what his decline will look like. As it stands right now he's the most dominant pitcher in the last 50 years, even if you just want to measure each pitcher's first 12 seasons[/QUOTE]

Lower HRs? HR rate was basically unchanged from the 50s until 2015. It fluctuated around the mean a little bit of course but it is one of the few things that has stayed mostly constant. The fact that Kershaw has pitched in the best pitcher's park in baseball history for his entire career while 3 of 4 of Ryan's home parks were hitter's parks is much more likely to influence those numbers than the overall rate.

He ran FIPs around or below 2.50 until 2016 and it has been over 3, cresting at 3.86 last year since then. All his peripherals have declined the last three years. He's in decline even with his defense saving him some runs and good luck, as evidenced by the ERA/FIP gap. The gap between his 2.16 ERA this year and his 3.31 FIP is one of the largest of any starter. He got extremely lucky this year on results. He has a history of chronic back injuries. Everything about his profile says he's more likely to be done by 35 than to extend past it toward 40 like Verlander, Greinke, and Scherzer have done.

rman112 10-02-2020 06:30 PM

He was awesome, but let's not forget how bad that Brewers offense was this year. If he really flips the script in the WS, different story.

BBases31 10-02-2020 06:36 PM

[QUOTE=WizardofOz1982;16502742]He ran FIPs around or below 2.50 until 2016 and it has been over 3, cresting at 3.86 last year since then. All his peripherals have declined the last three years. He's in decline even with his defense saving him some runs and good luck, as evidenced by the ERA/FIP gap. The gap between his 2.16 ERA this year and his 3.31 FIP is one of the largest of any starter. He got extremely lucky this year on results. He has a history of chronic back injuries. Everything about his profile says he's more likely to be done by 35 than to extend past it toward 40 like Verlander, Greinke, and Scherzer have done.[/QUOTE]

Dodgers defense from 2016-2020 has been barely above average, saving 3 runs a season([url]https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2020&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=&enddate=[/url]).

The reason his ERA is ahead of his FIP is because he excels at giving up soft contact. That's one of the reasons he's so dominant! You're looking at the difference as a negative but it's actually one of his skills :). Career average BABIP of .263

JRX 10-02-2020 08:51 PM

I'm a Yankees fan, but what Pedro did in the AL East at the height of the steroid era was unreal. There's maybe some bias since most people haven't seen a ton of Kershaw with him being on the west coast. I'd say he's def the best of his generation, but I wouldn't put him up there with Maddux, Pedro, and Randy yet.

JRX 10-02-2020 08:58 PM

from 97 to 03 Pedro averaged an ERA+ of 213 with a high of 291
Maddux 92 to 98 197 with high 271

I think over time people forget how dominant these guys really were

rats60 10-03-2020 06:15 AM

[QUOTE=2infinitybeyond;16500584]I love Kershaw. That being said, I don't know if he was dominant last night or if the Brewers are just that bad. There were a few hangers in there that the Brewers just missed.

Regardless, Kershaw is a legend to me and I don't believe all this "can't pitch in postseason" BS. He was truly dominant in Game 1 of the 2017 WS and that Game 5 "collapse" was the Astros cheating their way to a ring.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk[/QUOTE]

The Brewers had a losing record.

rats60 10-03-2020 06:17 AM

[QUOTE=WizardofOz1982;16502148]Clemens, Ryan, Johnson, Maddux, Pedro? All five of them as it stands now.

2,333 innings of 2.75 FIP (Kershaw) or 5,159 innings of 2.96 FIP (Ryan)? The problem with your argument is you're not taking Kershaw's eventual decline into consideration. Do you think he's still going to be running a 2.75 FIP when he's done? Not a chance.[/QUOTE]

Tom Seaver was better than all of those guys.

jjj5278 10-03-2020 07:44 AM

[QUOTE=djdevon;16500824]Give it time Doyyer fans. Curse-Shaw will self-destruct. He's like Chuck Knoblauch fielding a grounder at the hot corner. All he has to do is throw it to first, but...AAAHAHARRRURHGHGH[/QUOTE]

Ha, so clever. But Knoblauch played second base, not third.

PejaD 10-03-2020 01:10 PM

It’s the perfect setting for Kershaw to have a fairytale 2020 postseason run and overcome his previous playoff demons. The Dodgers would play all their remaining games in Kershaw’s hometown, and 2020 has been a big down year for hitting. 2020 for Kershaw could be what 2017 was for Verlander.

kidfan9 10-03-2020 01:45 PM

[QUOTE=PejaD;16505673]It’s the perfect setting for Kershaw to have a fairytale 2020 postseason run and overcome his previous playoff demons. The Dodgers would play all their remaining games in Kershaw’s hometown, and 2020 has been a big down year for hitting. 2020 for Kershaw could be what 2017 was for Verlander.[/QUOTE]


Also, no road crowds to rattle him.

bwalter1 10-03-2020 01:49 PM

[QUOTE=rats60;16504614]Tom Seaver was better than all of those guys.[/QUOTE]

Through same age the stats are similar between them. 3 Cys, Kersh has the MVP though. Kersh has more SO per 9 but Seaver had more IP and alot more complete games. Baseball has just changed over the years where you don't have to throw all 9 innings. I would not say Seaver was better because Kershaw still has years left in his arm and we can't compare final stats yet.

badkarma318 10-03-2020 03:38 PM

Even if the doyers manage to win the World Series, and he is a postseason asset rather than a liability, in the hearts and minds of most baseball fans (other than doyer fans, of course) it will forever be tainted / * due to the ridiculously short season, lack of a true spring training, key opposing players injured most likely due to the very same short season/lack of spring training (thus weakening the opposition, easing their path to the title), and so on.

rman112 10-03-2020 03:54 PM

[QUOTE=badkarma318;16506117]Even if the doyers manage to win the World Series, and he is a postseason asset rather than a liability, in the hearts and minds of most baseball fans (other than doyer fans, of course) it will forever be tainted / * due to the ridiculously short season, lack of a true spring training, key opposing players injured most likely due to the very same short season/lack of spring training (thus weakening the opposition, easing their path to the title), and so on.[/QUOTE]

That's some bad karma.

Vegas Cards 10-03-2020 03:58 PM

FWIW I bought my Kershaw Topps UH240 PSA 10 December 2018 for $160.

Recent ebay sales were for $575 or so. Not a bad move for less than 24 months.

I should have bought a couple more!

mattsey9 10-03-2020 06:46 PM

[QUOTE=rats60;16504614]Tom Seaver was better than all of those guys.[/QUOTE]

I spent some time last offseason watching some old Seaver games. He was absolutely outstanding.

mattsey9 10-03-2020 06:56 PM

[QUOTE=bwalter1;16505793]Through same age the stats are similar between them. 3 Cys, Kersh has the MVP though. Kersh has more SO per 9 but Seaver had more IP and alot more complete games. Baseball has just changed over the years where you don't have to throw all 9 innings. I would not say Seaver was better because Kershaw still has years left in his arm and we can't compare final stats yet.[/QUOTE]

This is why it can be so difficult to compare pitchers between eras. As you note, Seaver was expected to go 9 every night, pitch count be damned. Gibson wrote in his book that he held back his hard stuff until he really needed it so that he wouldn't run out of steam. Today's pitchers don't have that responsibility. If they pitch into the 7th it's a big deal.

Are todays pitchers faster and stronger? Without doubt. But they're playing a completely different game than what existed 50 years ago, as you note. Kershaw may match or surpass Seaver, Gibson, or Ryan on rate, but never on volume.

49ersSF 10-03-2020 08:09 PM

He gets a ring and plays well then his stock most certainly will rise.

bwalter1 10-04-2020 10:10 PM

[QUOTE=mattsey9;16506570]This is why it can be so difficult to compare pitchers between eras. As you note, Seaver was expected to go 9 every night, pitch count be damned. Gibson wrote in his book that he held back his hard stuff until he really needed it so that he wouldn't run out of steam. Today's pitchers don't have that responsibility. If they pitch into the 7th it's a big deal.

Are todays pitchers faster and stronger? Without doubt. But they're playing a completely different game than what existed 50 years ago, as you note. Kershaw may match or surpass Seaver, Gibson, or Ryan on rate, but never on volume.[/QUOTE]

Yeah Kersh won't be throwing the same amount of innings and I think he might be the last guy to have 300 wins if anybody does again. As far as ERA and KS he can be close to two (nobody is touching Ryan's Ks). It all depends on how he finishes off his career.

jhssketchcards 10-05-2020 06:31 AM

See also:
Peyton Manning 2007
John Elway 1997
LeBron James 2012

Certainly helped them


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

cardsin47 10-05-2020 08:03 AM

[QUOTE=Nostalgia;16500160]
You can get Kershaw cards relatively cheap... [/QUOTE]

Proof that it’s not “just” all about the Stats, when you’re dealing with Hobby popularity and demand ($). Kershaw reminds me of Pujols —- statistically one of the best ever, but not reflected in the cardboard world. Both lack “the magic” that collectors and investors are looking for ... :cool:

PS - as of today. Tomorrow - who knows?

texmcpherson 10-05-2020 08:49 AM

Kershaw was one of my biggest steals I've ever gotten on eBay...

2008 Topps Gold RC /2008 BGS 9 for $50 last December.

Nostalgia 10-05-2020 08:53 AM

[QUOTE=cardsin47;16510923]Proof that it’s not “just” all about the Stats, when you’re dealing with Hobby popularity and demand ($). Kershaw reminds me of Pujols —- statistically one of the best ever, but not reflected in the cardboard world. Both lack “the magic” that collectors and investors are looking for ... :cool:

PS - as of today. Tomorrow - who knows?[/QUOTE]

Why are Pujols rookies undervalued? High print? Pretty terrible 2nd half to his career?
I mean his career numbers look great, but his last 7/8 years have been very poor (besides some homeruns). His average has now dipped UNDER .300!! It was .332 through his first 10 seasons. Last 10 seasons = .258
He had 408 homeruns through his first 10 seasons. I thought he was a lock for 715. He has 254 in his last 10.
Yes, most of the decline likely has to do with age. But does steroids play any role in the minds of collectors?

Nostalgia 10-05-2020 09:03 AM

[QUOTE=texmcpherson;16511056]Kershaw was one of my biggest steals I've ever gotten on eBay...

2008 Topps Gold RC /2008 BGS 9 for $50 last December.[/QUOTE]

Ill buy it for 200 right now :)

DrewTheMan 10-05-2020 06:03 PM

I love lists.

Top pitchers in the last 50 years (1970-2020)

1 - Greg Maddux
2 - Randy Johnson
3 - Roger Clemens
4 - Pedro Martinez (best stuff I've seen but shorter career hurts)
5 - Steve Carlton
6 - Clayton Kershaw
7 - Jim Palmer
8 - Tom Glavine
9 - Justin Verlander
10 - Max Shcerzer

I think if you put Kershaw in the 90's in the AL East, you wouldn't see such dominant numbers. Just my thoughts.

Nostalgia 10-05-2020 06:39 PM

[QUOTE=DrewTheMan;16513090]I love lists.

Top pitchers in the last 50 years (1970-2020)

1 - Greg Maddux
2 - Randy Johnson
3 - Roger Clemens
4 - Pedro Martinez (best stuff I've seen but shorter career hurts)
5 - Steve Carlton
6 - Clayton Kershaw
7 - Jim Palmer
8 - Tom Glavine
9 - Justin Verlander
10 - Max Shcerzer

I think if you put Kershaw in the 90's in the AL East, you wouldn't see such dominant numbers. Just my thoughts.[/QUOTE]

Glavine never amazed me.

I have Halladay on the list over him.

DrewTheMan 10-05-2020 07:38 PM

You're right about Halladay, he was a beast. Glavine was a very good pitcher for a long period of time. He won 20 games over 5 times.

rats60 10-05-2020 09:45 PM

[QUOTE=DrewTheMan;16513090]I love lists.

Top pitchers in the last 50 years (1970-2020)

1 - Greg Maddux
2 - Randy Johnson
3 - Roger Clemens
4 - Pedro Martinez (best stuff I've seen but shorter career hurts)
5 - Steve Carlton
6 - Clayton Kershaw
7 - Jim Palmer
8 - Tom Glavine
9 - Justin Verlander
10 - Max Shcerzer

I think if you put Kershaw in the 90's in the AL East, you wouldn't see such dominant numbers. Just my thoughts.[/QUOTE]

Tom Seaver is better than all those guys. 109.9 WAR 2.86 ERA, 3.04 FIP, 1.121 WHIP, 311 Wins . 604 winning percentage 4783 IP, 231 CG, 61 SHO, 3640 Ks, 3 Cy Youngs with 8 top 5 finishes.

Nostalgia 10-05-2020 09:59 PM

[QUOTE=rats60;16513947]Tom Seaver is better than all those guys. 109.9 WAR 2.86 ERA, 3.04 FIP, 1.121 WHIP, 311 Wins . 604 winning percentage 4783 IP, 231 CG, 61 SHO, 3640 Ks, 3 Cy Youngs with 8 top 5 finishes.[/QUOTE]

I didn't even realize Seaver was omitted from this list.
I'd put Ryan over Palmer too.

Not sure Seaver was better than all of them. But he is definitely top 5.

For this list...I would change it to 90-2020....last 30 years.

Top 10 in No particular order:
Kershaw
Pedro
Maddux
Johnson
Verlander
Scherzer
Halladay
Santana
Felix
Clemens

Next 10 in No particular order:
Degrom
Mussina
Schilling
Bumgarner
Sabathia
Lincecum
Glavine
Smoltz
Greinke
Oswalt

regularp 10-06-2020 04:40 AM

[QUOTE=BBases31;16501941]Care to share who was better since 1970? Guess who is #1 in ERA in the last 50 years among pitchers with at least 2000 innings? Kershaw, by alot. He's in 1st at 2.43, 2nd at 2.82 and only two others under 3.00. FIP? #1 in that too.

Dominance in his era? That's Kershaw again too. 1st in ERA- at 63(this is a measure of ERA vs your competition at the time)[/QUOTE]

His postseason ERA is almost two full runs higher than his regular season ERA. It doesn't matter how you or anyone else tries to spin that. The stigma associated with that will never leave until he has a dominant run. He doesn't have any signature moments in the playoffs or series where he put the team on his back, especially in elimination games.

Nostalgia 10-06-2020 09:32 AM

[QUOTE=regularp;16514328]His postseason ERA is almost two full runs higher than his regular season ERA. It doesn't matter how you or anyone else tries to spin that. The stigma associated with that will never leave until he has a dominant run. He doesn't have any signature moments in the playoffs or series where he put the team on his back, especially in elimination games.[/QUOTE]

Looking forward to tomorrow's game.

duwal 10-07-2020 09:58 PM

[QUOTE=Nostalgia;16514787]Looking forward to tomorrow's game.[/QUOTE]

Well pretty much same ol Kershaw.....

Nostalgia 10-07-2020 09:59 PM

[QUOTE=duwal;16521836]Well pretty much same ol Kershaw.....[/QUOTE]
Looked good until the last inning.
Now he just needs the Dodgers to hold his win.
Not a great start. Needs the win.


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