Will Topps Chrome Sapphire Retain its Value?
 

Hello everyone,

Hope everyone is doing well and staying safe. Lately, I have been looking at the cards and autographs from 2018 and 2019 Topps Chrome Sapphire because frankly, the bowman chrome first cards of players like Tatis Jr. and Ronald Acuna have priced me out of the market. I am curious as to your answers to the question:

"Will these cards hold their value in the long run (all else being equal)?"

The cards are very nice and before I consider picking some up, I wanted to hear from you all!

Thanks again, and all opinions are welcome and encouraged!

No it will not. For one simple reason. production will go up. also, would not be surprised to see this being a target or walmart exclusive in the future.

With that said, 2018 and 2019 should definitely increase in value. Was originally only referring to future production.

i think so

[QUOTE=psd2k10;15708980]No it will not. For one simple reason. production will go up. also, would not be surprised to see this being a target or walmart exclusive in the future.[/QUOTE]

Prizm silver production is up in basketball... does it hurt the older silvers?

As the years go on and sapphire is undoubtedly produced at a much higher volume, I believe the earlier cards (Acuna, Gleyber, Tatis, Vlad ect) will benefit greatly from that.

Disclaimer...I own 0 of these cards.

[QUOTE=psd2k10;15708980]No it will not. For one simple reason. production will go up. also, would not be surprised to see this being a target or walmart exclusive in the future.

With that said, 2018 and 2019 should definitely increase in value. Was originally only referring to future production.[/QUOTE]

Thank you!

[QUOTE=ThoseBackPages;15708986]i think so[/QUOTE]

Thank you!

[QUOTE=KingInTheNorth;15709001]Prizm silver production is up in basketball... does it hurt the older silvers?

As the years go on and sapphire is undoubtedly produced at a much higher volume, I believe the earlier cards (Acuna, Gleyber, Tatis, Vlad ect) will benefit greatly from that.

Disclaimer...I own 0 of these cards.[/QUOTE]

i agree with this.

Sapphire is a Pedigree now

for the 2019 release Topps QUADRUPLED production, and it sold out in seven minutes

[QUOTE=KingInTheNorth;15709001]Prizm silver production is up in basketball... does it hurt the older silvers?

As the years go on and sapphire is undoubtedly produced at a much higher volume, I believe the earlier cards (Acuna, Gleyber, Tatis, Vlad ect) will benefit greatly from that.

Disclaimer...I own 0 of these cards.[/QUOTE]

Thank you for the comment!

[QUOTE=SonofaPitch;15708974]Hello everyone,

Hope everyone is doing well and staying safe. Lately, I have been looking at the cards and autographs from 2018 and 2019 Topps Chrome Sapphire because frankly, the bowman chrome first cards of players like Tatis Jr. and Ronald Acuna have priced me out of the market. I am curious as to your answers to the question:

"Will these cards hold their value in the long run (all else being equal)?"

The cards are very nice and before I consider picking some up, I wanted to hear from you all!

Thanks again, and all opinions are welcome and encouraged![/QUOTE]

unopened ....yes
2018 & 2019 boxes
will become very EXPENSIVE
much more than they are currently

[QUOTE=CoolG;15709077]unopened ....yes
2018 & 2019 boxes
will become very EXPENSIVE
much more than they are currently[/QUOTE]

How about individual cards? Like the high end rookies and autographs?

I think wax is probably most likely retain value - as always - because that just needs usually a couple of benchmark cards and I think at least 18 and 19 both have some nice potential to have that.

I'm very skeptical of the general singles market. Like dating during a quarantine.

If it's a superstar - it probably is one of those gold standards. Like prizm. Like Bowman.

But if it's not... the volume these are getting produced... demand starts to drop precipitously and there are a lot of people looking to not be involved with the big stash they once held with unlimited promise. Again - 2018 given lower production may continue to be an exception here (relatively).

I think the sphere of influence seemed to spread to Bowman Sapphire this year... that's a trend I don't see continuing especially if we move towards some prolonged recession.

[QUOTE=CoolG;15709077]unopened ....yes
2018 & 2019 boxes
will become very EXPENSIVE
much more than they are currently[/QUOTE]

You think the 2018 boxes will be much more than $~3500? Seems like 2019 will continue to go up, but I feel like 2018 is near it’s ceiling to due so many people already being priced out.

[QUOTE=ThoseBackPages;15708986]i think so[/QUOTE]
This is the way brotha!

[QUOTE=ThoseBackPages;15709021]i agree with this.

Sapphire is a Pedigree now

for the 2019 release Topps QUADRUPLED production, and it sold out in seven minutes[/QUOTE]


Agree. They also lost the sapphire tint and singles of the top guys were gobbled up at pretty handsome prices. Ronnie set the pedigree and it seems to have bled backwards into 16-17 and forward into 2019.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[QUOTE=rippev;15709184]You think the 2018 boxes will be much more than $~3500? Seems like 2019 will continue to go up, but I feel like 2018 is near it’s ceiling to due so many people already being priced out.[/QUOTE]

2018 is actually north of 4000.00.

As long as acuna is who we think, they go higher. Torres, ohtani and many other rookies have so much upside still. I agree with PP that sealed 2018 (and 2019) will go higher.

It's a parallel (Sapphire) of a parallel (Chrome).....not too many collectors are going to care about it in the long run...

[QUOTE=mfw13;15709500]It's a parallel (Sapphire) of a parallel (Chrome).....not too many collectors are going to care about it in the long run...[/QUOTE]

thank you for keeping it lighthearted!

[QUOTE=ThoseBackPages;15709517]thank you for keeping it lighthearted![/QUOTE]

You're welcome!

My point is simply that with so many products being released each year, a product has to have something pretty unique to maintain collector interest for more than a month after release.

[QUOTE=mfw13;15709500]It's a parallel (Sapphire) of a parallel (Chrome).....not too many collectors are going to care about it in the long run...[/QUOTE]

Adding to this... if you polled the broader hobby collectors, and asked which products they've heard of / recognized, I bet Sapphire is pretty far down the list.

I think it is most significantly a BO community phenomenon, and that works while the print run is really low. And works for the few players where there is some interesting angle.

But I have a hard time seeing this breaking out into something more than a niche product collected by a niche of the hobby community (us) unless Topps changes to a retail distribution model (as very few collectors are aware you can buy on Topps.com, and even fewer actually do)

[QUOTE=pewe;15709914]Adding to this... if you polled the broader hobby collectors, and asked which products they've heard of / recognized, I bet Sapphire is pretty far down the list.

I think it is most significantly a BO community phenomenon, and that works while the print run is really low. And works for the few players where there is some interesting angle.

But I have a hard time seeing this breaking out into something more than a niche product collected by a niche of the hobby community (us) unless Topps changes to a retail distribution model (as very few collectors are aware you can buy on Topps.com, and even fewer actually do)[/QUOTE]
Yes you keep saying the same thing in many different threads as the sapphire brand continues to climb in value across all years.

[QUOTE=Tim;15710010]Yes you keep saying the same thing in many different threads as the sapphire brand continues to climb in value across all years.[/QUOTE]

Climbing in value does not necessarily equal long-term staying power.

Lots of price activity is driven by speculators, not actual collectors.

I don’t think Sapphire is a parallel. It’s a set of its own—sold & packaged. If it’s not your thing, there’s certainly no shame in that. I do think it’s well on its way to being “the” premier baseball product annually. I had my doubts prior to this year’s release, but 2019 solidified Sapphire in many people’s minds—including mine. It’s difficult to debate that—it accomplished what it needed to convince the majority.

This may be a poor example, but even in a “worst case scenario” if Sapphire goes away, people will always know the Acuna and it will have a substantial floor. Think of the Stadium Club “Murphy” Jeter. It was a quirky “limited” product sold in a stadium shaped can for goodness sakes! It has also gone away, but the Jeter remains a key card for many collectors—at production rates much greater than Sapphire. I honestly think Sapphire is just getting started.

The 2018 is established. And if Acuna and/or Gleyber prove to be superstars over the long-term, those cards will be monsters. It’s sort of like the original Topps Chrome card to explode: Kobe Bryant’s rookie. That never lost its luster.

But as others have mentioned, values moving forward will depend on the direction of the product. It wouldn’t be surprising at all if Topps seizes on the hype and starts to overproduce—which they’ve pretty much already started doing. The 2019 Sapphire isn’t as strong as 2018, with production a bit higher. (Also, how do you have a set called Sapphire but without any Sapphire? As is, it’s just a regular atomic refractor.) We’ll see what happens with 2019 sapphire when Vlad or Tatis or Eloy reaches elite status in the hobby—their cards, which already demand a pretty penny, will probably be strong but not as strong as the previous year. Future editions could very well coming with gradually diminishing appeal.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I'm skeptical on the long-term value here as well. It's an online-only release. Kind of a niche product to me, and I could see this getting lost in the mix when people will prefer flagship and/or regular Chrome in the years to come.

I think this years release will be rough. No Series 2 additions, and very little hype because of no big Series 2 hype. Bo, Gavin, Yordan, Luis, and Nico will have maybe have at best a month of playing time?

[QUOTE=mfw13;15709528]You're welcome!

My point is simply that with so many products being released each year, a product has to have something pretty unique to maintain collector interest for more than a month after release.[/QUOTE]

Maybe I'm missing something.

I feel like the 2018 Sapphire release is a little past a month already.

So either it has that "pretty unique" something you speak of, or if it doesn't, it has staying power, no?

[QUOTE=ThoseBackPages;15709021]i agree with this.

Sapphire is a Pedigree now

for the 2019 release Topps QUADRUPLED production, and it sold out in seven minutes[/QUOTE]

This doesn't meet any remote definition of a pedigree product. 2017 was AWFUL ---> why 2018 production was low---> Acuna BLEW UP, literally one true chase card in the product ---> 2019 overproduced and it is back to 2017 with value.

The Acuna Sapphire is the most shamelessly pimped card of his. Now people are trying to pimp the buyback stamped tranny thingy they are putting out.. it's really sad.

[QUOTE=clocsta2323;15710468]This doesn't meet any remote definition of a pedigree product. 2017 was AWFUL ---> why 2018 production was low---> Acuna BLEW UP, literally one true chase card in the product ---> 2019 overproduced and it is back to 2017 with value.[/QUOTE]

2019 Sapphire has far more value than 2017. Not even close.

[QUOTE=Tim;15709384]2018 is actually north of 4000.00.

As long as acuna is who we think, they go higher. Torres, ohtani and many other rookies have so much upside still. I agree with PP that sealed 2018 (and 2019) will go higher.[/QUOTE]


I still don’t get why people would pay $4k for a <15% of pulling an Acuna (or Torres). Why not just buy the single?

I find the whole wax thing so perplexing when the expected value of the rip is 25% of the purchase price.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[QUOTE=FT35;15710101]I don’t think Sapphire is a parallel. It’s a set of its own—sold & packaged. If it’s not your thing, there’s certainly no shame in that. I do think it’s well on its way to being “the” premier baseball product annually. I had my doubts prior to this year’s release, but 2019 solidified Sapphire in many people’s minds—including mine. It’s difficult to debate that—it accomplished what it needed to convince the majority.

This may be a poor example, but even in a “worst case scenario” if Sapphire goes away, people will always know the Acuna and it will have a substantial floor. Think of the Stadium Club “Murphy” Jeter. It was a quirky “limited” product sold in a stadium shaped can for goodness sakes! It has also gone away, but the Jeter remains a key card for many collectors—at production rates much greater than Sapphire. I honestly think Sapphire is just getting started.[/QUOTE]


Topps considers it and markets it as a parallel... “Topps Chrome Sapphire Edition”


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[QUOTE=Tim;15710010]Yes you keep saying the same thing in many different threads as the sapphire brand continues to climb in value across all years.[/QUOTE]


“Climb in value across all years”... what does this mean? I track them across my PC players, and ‘17-18 seem to be sticking to where I expected their value... below “day” or SSP Flagship parallels... but above things like “gold”. And vs chrome color probably 2x a blue.

The players in ‘17, for instance, had their listed prices “adjusted up” by sellers from the $40ish they were in the fall to $200+ now. But I haven’t seen a single Bregman base sold since they were “adjusted up”. A #/25 auto true gem did just sell on auction for $500, but an equivalent Topps Chrome would go for more (last #/25 ungraded non-auto sold for $300).

Base ungraded Devers were selling for $60-80 last fall. All his card prices are up 100-200% since then, and the Sapphire is in the mid-to-high $100s now, so at the bottom of the appreciation range since then. And the absolute price of those cards trail others with similar or higher print runs (like Topps Series 1 SSP “pointing”).


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[QUOTE=bcubs;15710490]2019 Sapphire has far more value than 2017. Not even close.[/QUOTE]


This sounds like the Topps Mini thread all over again :D


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[QUOTE=pewe;15710757]

Base ungraded Devers were selling for $60-80 last fall. All his card prices are up 100-200% since then, and [B]the Sapphire is in the mid-to-high $100s now, so at the bottom of the appreciation range since then[/B]. And the absolute price of those cards trail others with similar or higher print runs (like Topps Series 1 SSP “pointing”).


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk[/QUOTE]

I sold my Devers raw Sapphire for $250 about a month ago.

[QUOTE=eye4talent;15710139]And if Acuna and/or Gleyber prove to be superstars over the long-term, those cards will be monsters. It’s sort of like the original Topps Chrome card to explode: Kobe Bryant’s rookie. That never lost its luster.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk[/QUOTE]

Totally agree for the unique situations like Acuna and Gleyber etc. this will remain the premium card for them. I think this is the smart place to own Sapphire.

For other players where Sapphire is just another version of their full print run of flagship and chrome, where those have all parallels and image variations then these settle in between gold and “day” parallels. Which is where they are in the players I track, so feeling good about that prediction :)

Doesn’t mean they are bad, you shouldn’t like them, etc... just helps in knowing where to target them for pricing. I like owning them and have several


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Will Topps Chrome Sapphire Retain its Value?
 

[QUOTE=Tim;15710764]I sold my Devers raw Sapphire for $250 about a month ago.[/QUOTE]


Bunch of traded below that... I think during the Gary v pimp session all of Devers “base cards” had a brief 100% extra run up, but that seems to have cooled back to “normal”

$160 BO on 3/18, for instance. Multiple PSA 10s in the $300 range.

You got super lucky on a BIN, but all other sales around that are much less.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[QUOTE=clocsta2323;15710468]This doesn't meet any remote definition of a pedigree product. 2017 was AWFUL ---> why 2018 production was low---> Acuna BLEW UP, literally one true chase card in the product ---> 2019 overproduced and it is back to 2017 with value.[/QUOTE]

2018 does not have just one chase card lol. When you have base cards of Trout going for $100+, Torres base at $700, Devers $250, and on it goes.
2019 boxes are selling for $320 all day long just months after they were released at $50 a box. So not "back to 2017" with value.

[QUOTE=pewe;15710771]Bunch of traded below that... I think during the Gary v pimp session all of Devers “base cards” had a brief 100% extra run up, but that seems to have cooled back to “normal”


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk[/QUOTE]

But you still ignored my sale (at least) when coming up with your data, which makes me a bit dubious, sorry.

[QUOTE=Tim;15710778]But you still ignored my sale (at least) when coming up with your data, which makes me a bit dubious, sorry.[/QUOTE]


You always throw out high sales on BIN when doing comps... when many others have been selling at much less, especially more so... remember how a market works: there will always be people willing to spend 2-4x, but just because one of those people exist doesn’t mean the natural trading price is anywhere close

This is why many smart sellers price well above market and pray to find that one sucker


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The cards are beautiful and the print run is low so value will always be there. Hard to say if the value will continue to trend up, but I do not expect it to drop much.

That being said, I own 0 Sapphires I and have no intention of picking any up. Not my cup of tea.

[QUOTE=pewe;15710780]You always throw out high sales on BIN when doing comps... when many others have been selling at much less, especially more so... remember how a market works: there will always be people willing to spend 2-4x, but just because one of those people exist doesn’t mean the natural trading price is anywhere close

This is why many smart sellers price well above market and pray to find that one sucker


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk[/QUOTE]

Well if I "always" do it then i guess either i am very lucky or good at extracting the most from my stuff. :o

Edit - I just checked for fun and see that only three Devers Sapphires sold in the last month, one was mine (ignored by you) and the other two were best offers taken after the virus hit. None are available on ebay for under $250 at this time. So I don't think I am the only one picking and choosing comps.

The bottom line is there are a lot of people living in the past and unable to adapt to our rapidly changing market and collectors. Sapphire is without question a hot brand right now, like it or not, and no one can predict long term staying power of anything really. I know that speaking only for my own sales that Sapphire is without question the hottest brand going at this time (2018 and 2019).

I think the more interesting question is will Topps Chrome have any value if Sapphire maintains its prominence? The market for 2019 Chrome seems lower than that for Flagship, whereas it was more equal in the past.

[QUOTE=Tim;15710796]Well if I "always" do it then i guess either i am very lucky or good at extracting the most from my stuff. :o

Edit - I just checked for fun and see that only three Devers Sapphires sold in the last month, one was mine (ignored by you) and the other two were best offers taken after the virus hit. None are available on ebay for under $250 at this time. So I don't think I am the only one picking and choosing comps.

The bottom line is there are a lot of people living in the past and unable to adapt to our rapidly changing market and collectors. Sapphire is without question a hot brand right now, like it or not, and no one can predict long term staying power of anything really. I know that speaking only for my own sales that Sapphire is without question the hottest brand going at this time (2018 and 2019).[/QUOTE]

???

Devers prices are actually UP ~100% since coronavirus...

Your one sale is ~65% above all other comps in the last month... and even more so if we go back to pre-Gary-V hype train

Devers Sapphires sold on eBay in last 90 days:
-- 3/29 $350 (PSA10)
-- 3/26 $150 (raw)
-- 3/18 $160 (raw)
-- 3/16 $335 (PSA10)
-- 3/15 $330 (PSA10)
-- 3/4 $250 (raw) <-- your BIN
-- 2/11 $225 (PSA10)
-- 2/2 $170 (PSA10)
-- 2/2 $160 (PSA10)
-- 1/30 $110 (raw) <-- this one had a "seller offered a special discount" sale... I don't have the amount, any longer :(
-- 1/27 $162.50 (PSA10)

It'll always have a niche but wont be the premier card except to advanced collectors. The way Flagship and Update/Chrome are going and the availability, those will stay #1.

Anyone who has invested tons of money into Sapphire is going to post here that its the greatest thing since sliced bread and how DARE anyone think it anything but gold.

Anyone who was priced out of buying this will post that it is a fad and price will drop any second now once collectors wake up and realize its a gimmick set.

Always about agendas and pumping what you own.

[QUOTE=rfgilles;15710820]I think the more interesting question is will Topps Chrome have any value if Sapphire maintains its prominence? The market for 2019 Chrome seems lower than that for Flagship, whereas it was more equal in the past.[/QUOTE]

Base card raw or PSA10?

For chrome I see base cards raw sell for more $$, but PSA10 it seems more equal (for instance, Soto or Devers as a comp set that we debated recently on this same topic)

I thought we were guessing this is because of condition issues? And people assume PSA10 is harder in paper flagship?

[QUOTE=pewe;15710875]Base card raw or PSA10?

For chrome I see base cards raw sell for more $$, but PSA10 it seems more equal (for instance, Soto or Devers as a comp set that we debated recently on this same topic)

I thought we were guessing this is because of condition issues? And people assume PSA10 is harder in paper flagship?[/QUOTE]

I was talking about 2019. Flagship PSA 10s and their parallels for the big 4 rookies (Tatis, Guerrero, Jimenez, Alonso) seem to go for more than than their Chrome counterparts. I haven't looked at this in-depth, more of my impression. Could be wrong.

[QUOTE=notoriousrmb;15710872]Anyone who has invested tons of money into Sapphire is going to post here that its the greatest thing since sliced bread and how DARE anyone think it anything but gold.

Anyone who was priced out of buying this will post that it is a fad and price will drop any second now once collectors wake up and realize its a gimmick set.

Always about agendas and pumping what you own.[/QUOTE]

I agree with this 100%.

[QUOTE=rfgilles;15711012]I was talking about 2019. Flagship PSA 10s and their parallels for the big 4 rookies (Tatis, Guerrero, Jimenez, Alonso) seem to go for more than than their Chrome counterparts. I haven't looked at this in-depth, more of my impression. Could be wrong.[/QUOTE]

Ahhh - interesting! How much is the gap?

The one 2019 I do follow close enough to know is Arraez, and his raw chromes sell for ~50% premium to his raw paper flagship. But his cards are so cheap that is probably hard to use as a good comp.

100% if Acuna, Glyber, or Ohtani continue their success then 2018 Sapphire will be one of the most iconic products ever.

Print run was so low for 2018 and everyone ripped open the boxes. Theres very few wax out there and thats why its also so expensive. Not only iconic but rare.

Once baseball gets going (whenever that is) and assume the top players produce theres no reason Acuna wont be a 7-8k raw with wax around 10k

Someone made the comparison to 96' Chrome Basketball, I agree.

I own a bunch of the 2018 and almost sold. Thankfully I didn't and back to buying them.

[QUOTE=notoriousrmb;15710872]Anyone who has invested tons of money into Sapphire is going to post here that its the greatest thing since sliced bread and how DARE anyone think it anything but gold.

Anyone who was priced out of buying this will post that it is a fad and price will drop any second now once collectors wake up and realize its a gimmick set.

Always about agendas and pumping what you own.[/QUOTE]

As someone in the 3rd camp, collectors who like to have Sapphire as part of their rainbow, I still think it is important to try and get a gauge of what the market is, and will be. Or at least for me, I like to buy my PC players at market (not to say I haven't been the rube a few times... or maybe more than a few ;) ).

Love to hear other's thoughts. But here is how I currently target pricing [NOTE: this assumes a player where they had a regular Series 1 or 2, and chrome card all with the same image and full parallels]

Raw base sapphire = 1.5 x raw flagship gold #/20xx
PSA 10 base sapphire = 1x - 1.25x PSA 10 flagship gold #/20xx

And because I can generalize the flagship gold to most other cards, that serves as a nice reference point.

Now, of course, all the above goes out the window if the player has some weird Acuna or Torres or Guerror Jr. like situation. In my mind, those need their own models that are player specific.

[IMG]https://media.giphy.com/media/7JvlHfd7C2GDr7zfZF/giphy.gif[/IMG]

[QUOTE=yrozmaryn;15711059]theres no reason Acuna wont be a 7-8k raw with wax around 10k[/QUOTE]

This is just amazing... if you have ~1K in expected Acuna value in a box (at 7-8k raw), why would someone pay 10k for a box of wax???

Are people that have enough money to spend $10K on wax that bad at math?

[QUOTE=mcwildcats;15711074][IMG]https://media.giphy.com/media/7JvlHfd7C2GDr7zfZF/giphy.gif[/IMG][/QUOTE]


Haha!!! Makes me think of this famous Superman... “what happens when the unstoppable force meets the immovable object?”... “they surrender” :D

[IMG]https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200331/6df7660c1d5471068f94827442f5534a.png[/IMG]


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[QUOTE=pewe;15711087]This is just amazing... if you have ~1K in expected Acuna value in a box (at 7-8k raw), why would someone pay 10k for a box of wax???

Are people that have enough money to spend $10K on wax that bad at math?[/QUOTE]

Are you new to the hobby? Sealed wax has always been priced higher than most of the best pulls. Look at all vintage wax - it's all the same. Now there's outliers like superfractors and red autos, etc., but it's not unusual that right now a sealed Sapphire box is bringing over $4000 when the Acuna itself, one in 7 chance, is going for the same. You have to factor in the thrill of it, the rarity of the sealed item, etc. MOST wax does not have a 1:3.5 chance at either a $4K card or an emerging $1K card. Not to mention the super chance and the autos. Look at 19 sapphire. Three BASE cards go for ~$400 - boxes at $325. Similar. Not just Sapphire. This applies to all wax. Do you think you will get $300 worth of value in a typical Optic NBA cello box? You are paying for the fun and for the chance at bigger things in that case. A 1983 Topps Wax box is not going to yield $300 in value. On and on it goes. Heritage is an exception for those who put in the work of breaking multiple cases at wholesale pricing. But it's apples and oranges as you have to open cases. One BOX of heritage is not worth $90 typically but the chance at a throwback or an auto Trout, etc. brings the demand. (I use H as an example b/c it's the last item a person gambles with on one box yet the rule even applies to it!)

Hope this helps - there's no analytical logic that applies here and it never has at least not since I started doing this in the early 80s.

I think too often we project a product across all cards in that product, when in reality each product will have certain players/cards that don't fit into a simple box. There are so many things that go into a card's popularity aside from the product it comes from.

[QUOTE=Tim;15711203]Are you new to the hobby? Sealed wax has always been priced higher than most of the best pulls. Look at all vintage wax - it's all the same. Now there's outliers like superfractors and red autos, etc., but it's not unusual that right now a sealed Sapphire box is bringing over $4000 when the Acuna itself, one in 7 chance, is going for the same. You have to factor in the thrill of it, the rarity of the sealed item, etc. MOST wax does not have a 1:3.5 chance at either a $4K card or an emerging $1K card. Not to mention the super chance and the autos. Look at 19 sapphire. Three BASE cards go for ~$400 - boxes at $325. Similar. Not just Sapphire. This applies to all wax. Do you think you will get $300 worth of value in a typical Optic NBA cello box? You are paying for the fun and for the chance at bigger things in that case. A 1983 Topps Wax box is not going to yield $300 in value. On and on it goes. Heritage is an exception for those who put in the work of breaking multiple cases at wholesale pricing. But it's apples and oranges as you have to open cases. One BOX of heritage is not worth $90 typically but the chance at a throwback or an auto Trout, etc. brings the demand. (I use H as an example b/c it's the last item a person gambles with on one box yet the rule even applies to it!)

Hope this helps - there's no analytical logic that applies here and it never has at least not since I started doing this in the early 80s.[/QUOTE]

It can be frustrating, but I'm just pointing out the obvious. ;)

And why??? I find it ironic that we have this HUGE set of intense discussions on how to make $$ by ripping wax. So certainly a large contingent of people are trying to create profit models out of what they buy.

So clearly people are running the math on these things.

With that said, do some people still rip just for the fun of it? Sure! But how many people are ripping $1K boxes of cards "for the fun of it"? My guess is most of those people are the ones we see on here all the time saying "I've got $100 and want a fun rip"...

So this goes back to my earlier question: is there a real market for rippers? Or is this just wax speculators hoping another wax speculator will come along and grab their product before the house of cards falls down?

We seem to speak out of both sides of our mouths on here sometimes. Its been my job for nearly 20 years to spot those market issues, and point them out and make $$ based on realizing it. ;)

[QUOTE=pewe;15711347]It can be frustrating, but I'm just pointing out the obvious. ;)

And why??? I find it ironic that we have this HUGE set of intense discussions on how to make $$ by ripping wax. So certainly a large contingent of people are trying to create profit models out of what they buy.

So clearly people are running the math on these things.

With that said, do some people still rip just for the fun of it? Sure! But how many people are ripping $1K boxes of cards "for the fun of it"? My guess is most of those people are the ones we see on here all the time saying "I've got $100 and want a fun rip"...

So this goes back to my earlier question: is there a real market for rippers? Or is this just wax speculators hoping another wax speculator will come along and grab their product before the house of cards falls down?

We seem to speak out of both sides of our mouths on here sometimes. Its been my job for nearly 20 years to spot those market issues, and point them out and make $$ based on realizing it. ;)[/QUOTE]

I don't analyze things deeply and i know you do, which is great. :D

But for me, I don't usually look at "why" but "what." Sealed wax has always been a smart investment and it is my niche and what i have always followed. I don't think too much about why - i have observed what i posted already and think too that a lot of collectors look at their sealed collection in the same way that collectors look at their vintage or bowman rookies, or whatever. A sealed 2018 Sapphire box could be the crowning achievement in modern sealed baseball product for the sealed box collector.

sealed wax is amazing. Once it's opened, its gone forever. (sans bad actors)

[QUOTE=Tim;15711387]I don't analyze things deeply and i know you do, which is great. :D

But for me, I don't usually look at "why" but "what." Sealed wax has always been a smart investment and it is my niche and what i have always followed. I don't think too much about why - i have observed what i posted already and think too that a lot of collectors look at their sealed collection in the same way that collectors look at their vintage or bowman rookies, or whatever. A sealed 2018 Sapphire box could be the crowning achievement in modern sealed baseball product for the sealed box collector.[/QUOTE]

Yep - I think you are getting at the blind spot in my analysis... these aren't purchased by people who will rip them... they are being purchased by our equivalent of a history buff (this isn't a slight, it is a good thing!)... it is being purchased not to rip, but as a thing on its own "an original never opened sealed Sapphire box!"...

Its like gold rush original nuggets. The history around them makes their value higher than the gold itself... multiple times more, in some cases

You are buying the history of this release, and how seminal it is... keep those boxes sealed!

[QUOTE=Tim;15711203]Are you new to the hobby? Sealed wax has always been priced higher than most of the best pulls. Look at all vintage wax - it's all the same. Now there's outliers like superfractors and red autos, etc., but it's not unusual that right now a sealed Sapphire box is bringing over $4000 when the Acuna itself, one in 7 chance, is going for the same. You have to factor in the thrill of it, the rarity of the sealed item, etc. MOST wax does not have a 1:3.5 chance at either a $4K card or an emerging $1K card. Not to mention the super chance and the autos. Look at 19 sapphire. Three BASE cards go for ~$400 - boxes at $325. Similar. Not just Sapphire. This applies to all wax. Do you think you will get $300 worth of value in a typical Optic NBA cello box? You are paying for the fun and for the chance at bigger things in that case. A 1983 Topps Wax box is not going to yield $300 in value. On and on it goes. Heritage is an exception for those who put in the work of breaking multiple cases at wholesale pricing. But it's apples and oranges as you have to open cases. One BOX of heritage is not worth $90 typically but the chance at a throwback or an auto Trout, etc. brings the demand. (I use H as an example b/c it's the last item a person gambles with on one box yet the rule even applies to it!)

Hope this helps - there's no analytical logic that applies here and it never has at least not since I started doing this in the early 80s.[/QUOTE]

All of this^^^

[QUOTE=ThoseBackPages;15711392]sealed wax is amazing. Once it's opened, its gone forever. (sans bad actors)[/QUOTE]

...... and this ^^^^^

[QUOTE=CoolG;15711588]All of this^^^[/QUOTE]

None of this^^^

(if you read the rest of the thread)

[QUOTE=CoolG;15711597]...... and this ^^^^^[/QUOTE]

^^^but this? yes... but not because of what in it for a ripper (rippers aren't the buyers), instead you are selling to people who what to buy the history around the product (and keep it sealed)

Fantastic, I was hoping we could get another sapphrie thread. There wasn't enough already.

[QUOTE=pewe;15711778]None of this^^^

(if you read the rest of the thread)[/QUOTE]


I posted in the thread/read the thread numerous times.
We can just agree to disagree not a big deal. Have a nice day and stay safe.
Wholesale buys on opened wax of this product continue to go up.

[QUOTE=marlinsmaniac20;15712203]Fantastic, I was hoping we could get another sapphrie thread. There wasn't enough already.[/QUOTE]

At this point we are so bored that we are rehashing arguments we've had multiple times before... it's like we are doing TV reruns in the off-season ;)

[QUOTE=CoolG;15712220]I posted in the thread/read the thread numerous times.
We can just agree to disagree not a big deal. Have a nice day and stay safe.
Wholesale buys on opened wax of this product continue to go up.[/QUOTE]

I don't know about you, but my mind expended on this today. Thanks @Tim! Wax itself can be worth more than what is in it, and for a very logical reason for a collector of seminal wax. :)!

@CoolG - the one thing I'm interested in (as a PC guy, who buys Sapphire, but only wants to at "market value"): where do you put its comp price?

Above I proposed one way I do it, and seems pretty robust / consistent with realized prices on players that don't have unique one-off situations like Acuna, Gleyber, and Guerrero. Do you have a different target price in mind when you buy singles? What is your calculus?

I have sold more 2019 Topps Chrome Sapphire in the last 3 months than any other product. The price just keeps going up and will not be shocked if 2019 gets to 500-700 a box by the end of the year. BO has it for 312 a box if you buy 2 and use the discount code. I was recently offered a sealed 40 box case for 12K. Did not have that available at the time but the same case is now listed for 13,500 in less than a month. This product is fire and will not go down.

hasnt Houdini ripped ike 700 boxes of this so far?

[QUOTE=ThoseBackPages;15712275]hasnt Houdini ripped ike 700 boxes of this so far?[/QUOTE]

I think WAY more than that. He ripped over 100 or so just this week and this is at a time when "stock is dwindling". I quote that because somehow despite this supposed to be pretty limited (I know more printed than last year) he keeps getting in cases upon cases of it. I really like the product myself but getting quite pricey. My concern is this years, if there is one due to world issues, and going forward. They will keep producing more and more which makes the product not as great.

[QUOTE=ThoseBackPages;15712275]hasnt Houdini ripped ike 700 boxes of this so far?[/QUOTE]

Weren't there something like ~66,000 boxes produced... so breaking 700 is hardly a dent in the total number :)

[QUOTE=clocsta2323;15710484]The Acuna Sapphire is the most shamelessly pimped card of his. Now people are trying to pimp the buyback stamped tranny thingy they are putting out.. it's really sad.[/QUOTE]

agreed!! the transcendent copy is a joke in my eyes. Buybacks dont count when they have an ugly stamp like the transcendent copy. :coffee:

[QUOTE=ThoseBackPages;15711392]sealed wax is amazing. Once it's opened, its gone forever. (sans bad actors)[/QUOTE]

What's amazing about it? looking at it? :doh: what is amazing is when you can actually enjoy opening it all up. Plus the suspense and thrill involved on what the next card behind the front one will be! :flex:

I view unopened simply as an investment. Im sure you have intentions of eventually selling your unopened otherwise why would you leave it just sitting there on a shelf or closet lonely wrapped in plastic?

Once you open it it won't be gone forever! Don't judge wax by its cover! Beauty comes from within! :D

I hope so, I really really like them. I've never bought any as I'm not much of a gambler (I had buyers remorse for paying $200 for a box of Bowman Chrome HTA where I got 3 turds.) but who knows, maybe one day. For now, I will buy the singles.