[QUOTE=forest;18339164]So for the people who don't believe in lineup protection - Soto has a .246 AVG with the Nationals this year, consistently hovering in that sub .250 range all year. By the end of the year, would you expect his Padres average to be about that same number?[/QUOTE]

Considering batting average is the absolute worst way to measure offensive production, it's a worthless question to answer :)

[QUOTE=Snakeonia;18339158]Whats this hosmer stuff. Possibly blocking the trade?


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The trade will get done

[QUOTE=JohnnyHatesJazz;18339166]I'm sure they'll easily find another person to trade if he doesn't agree.[/QUOTE]

Hosmer is another Boras guy.

They'll figure it out.

Wasn’t expecting bell to be including! Loved the padres before but now really digging this team!

[QUOTE=KhalDrogo;18339138]I am shocked the Dodgers let this happen.

Soto finally getting back some lineup protection. If Tatis is healthy, holy #@#@#@#@.[/QUOTE]

Dodgers figured they've got enough ammo right now to hold off the Padres for the next few years and then they'll sign Soto as a free agent without giving up the farm.

[QUOTE=forest;18339080]Why would those buyers care though that they're on the same team? If anything it should draw more interest. It's not like basketball where they're going to eat into each other's stats. Both of their production is likely to increase with more protection in their order and much less pitching around.[/QUOTE]

This right here says it all, excellent point!

[QUOTE=forest;18339150]Whatever study you're referring to, something tells me the guy whose been pitched around/walked at a historic rate might be the exception to it[/QUOTE]

The entire point of pitching around an individual is for the defensive team to gain an advantage.

And yes, Soto as a calculated individual loses little to no value because there is a calculated value to how many runs each walk is worth.

But of course, you can walk any player all day when the on deck hitter is the old broad from Driving Miss Daisy. They aren't going to score any runs. And that wouldn't be reflected in the player's 'value'

But will Juan Soto actually contribute to more runs scored with better players around him? Yes. Absolutely. It's inherent. If they choose to walk him at the same rate, he'll be more likely to score. If they choose to throw him more pitches to hit, he'll have more chances to drive in runs.

You can't love stats and analytics more than me, but one must always remember the difference between neutralizing all outcomes, and the reality of playing in a non-neutralized outcome. Juan Soto's value may not change at all on the stat sheets. He'll still be Juan Soto. But he's got a great chance to be in a lot more run scoring plays now, and that's the entire point. The team impact.

Padres got fleeced good for the Nats.

[QUOTE=BBases31;18339173]Considering batting average is the absolute worst way to measure offensive production, it's a worthless question to answer :)[/QUOTE]

It's a meaningful stat to fans and therefore card collectors. I wasn't debating whether his offensive production would increase, everyone already knows he brings his value via OBP. But which player do you think would be more popular to card collectors?
.246 AVG, .408 OBP
.286 AVG, .408 OBP

[QUOTE=forest;18339211]It's a meaningful stat to fans and therefore card collectors. I wasn't debating whether his offensive production would increase, everyone already knows he brings his value via OBP. But which player do you think would be more popular to card collectors?
.246 AVG, .408 OBP
.286 AVG, .408 OBP[/QUOTE]


Ages?


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[QUOTE=forest;18339164]So for the people who don't believe in lineup protection - Soto has a .246 AVG with the Nationals this year, consistently hovering in that sub .250 range all year. By the end of the year, would you expect his Padres average to be about that same number?[/QUOTE]


Would most likely be higher whomever he played for. Has had awful babip luck.


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[QUOTE=rainmaker;18339174]The trade will get done[/QUOTE]


Once upon a time griffey was going to the padres as well.


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Happy Juan Soto Trade Day!! Time to break this beauty out :)

[img]https://i.imgur.com/uHBPX6ul.jpg[/img]

[QUOTE=forest;18339164]So for the people who don't believe in lineup protection - Soto has a .246 AVG with the Nationals this year, consistently hovering in that sub .250 range all year. By the end of the year, would you expect his Padres average to be about that same number?[/QUOTE]

Soto hit .335 last year after the Nats fire sale that left him alone.

He's hit .330 since June 30th this year.

His BB and K% are virtually unchanged over the last 3 years. All of his rate stats look in the range of where they always have. His batting average issues have nothing to do with lineup protection and everything to do with the fact that for periods of time, BABIP and the baseball gods can sometimes be bitches..

[QUOTE=forest;18339164]So for the people who don't believe in lineup protection - Soto has a .246 AVG with the Nationals this year, consistently hovering in that sub .250 range all year. By the end of the year, would you expect his Padres average to be about that same number?[/QUOTE]
I wouldn't bet against his avg going up, even staying with Washington. His BABIP is still below .250.

It will be easy to track his zone% swing%, etc before/after the trade. He could swing more at pitches in the zone and thus walk less frequently. I would want to know what % of plate appearances come with one or more baserunner, before/after trade. Is the low swing% due to bases empty? If there's correlation there, then we may see more swings with SD and perhaps more batting average. His approach now might be hunting very specific pitch type/location. I dont know, just a guess.

I would predict zone swing% to go up, towards 65%, and his bb%/k% to flip, being closer to 2019.

I am excited to watch him play again (Nats games blacked out for me on mlb.tv)

Think its going to be a different piece not hosmer.


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[QUOTE=Maven;18338957]LFGSD!!!! Pure bliss[/QUOTE]

I'm a huge Padres fan! Always have been since 1 hr ago.

LFG!

Just ordered a Padres hat. Yes I live in Colorado and not afraid to play the villain.


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i am not worried

[QUOTE=ThoseBackPages;18339318]i am not worried[/QUOTE]

So you're saying I should buy 2021 Bowman's Best Juan Soto rookie cards?

Great Pick Up!! :)!:)!:)!

[QUOTE=SaveMeTheGum;18339132]Picked this up at National on Friday! Soto in that lineup is going to be insane!

[img]https://i.imgur.com/fTBBe39h.jpg[/img][/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=Giancarlo27;18339363]So you're saying I should buy 2021 Bowman's Best Juan Soto rookie cards?[/QUOTE]

if he had one, absolutely!

Yay he won't be blacked out for me anymore.

So he could put on 4 different team uniforms in 2.5 years. Nats, Padres, traded this time in ‘24, free agency in 2025.


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[QUOTE=pete2345;18339210][B]Padres got fleeced [/B]good for the Nats.[/QUOTE]


Trading unproven prospects who haven't played a day in MLB for one of the most coveted players in years AND another proven player who's hitting over .300?




Tell me who got fleeced again.