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-   -   Will Burrow Prices Drop Dramatically? (https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1546574)

imbluestreak23 02-05-2023 01:10 PM

[QUOTE=ninjacookies;18684768]The problem with the Mahomes or nothing argument is the same in every other sport.

If you're in it purely just from the investment perspective, then you would have left a ton of money on the table relegating all your money into ONLY the top player in each sport. You also open yourself up to greater risk tolerance if a Purdy-like injury occurs by placing all your eggs in a smaller basket.

In baseball, people have done quite handsomely buying/selling guys other than Trout. Basketball...there are a plethora of guys other than Lebron that have paid off handsomely. Football the same.

It's all a matter of when you get in. Let's not act like hoards of people didn't also lose their rears on Patty mid-high end by getting in at the wrong time. That's not necessarily an indictment on them or their selection process, it's more an indictment on the market in general and the imminent risks involved in any speculative investment. I don't think there were too many people that foresaw high end Mahomes cards dropping precipitously over the course of this season despite him and his team's success.


Here's the thing: Burrows isn't priced like Mahomes. Not even close. So it's not a 1:1 comparison. I think there's a lot more potential upside in Burrows than there is Mahomes at current pricing. Sure, there may be more downside on a sliding scale, but the entire market at large is susceptible to more red candles given the uncertainty of the near term economy.

Just let people buy/clect what they like. Seems to be a lost art on here. A 3rd year player loses the AFC championship after back to back appearances and suddenly his career's over or he's peaked according to rival investerbois.

But hey. This is why we Blowout.

[IMG]https://media3.giphy.com/media/8PE8pJnBRKG1OCRUDi/giphy.gif[/IMG][/QUOTE]

Think this is the right perspective.

At the same time, I also believe that this is why you see the Burrow/Herbie/Joshy stans all getting their panties in a wad as they have a vested interest in tearing down the guy on top. Most have plenty of high end that, if pops off, they are hoping lands in high end Patty territory. So they are just as if not more so interested in pumping up their guy and tearing down the guy who is currently on top as we all know where peak QB cards can land. 6-7 figs. That messes with people's knoggins.

I'm a buyer of clean raw cheap Burrows/Allens/Herberts at 1/10th the price of Patty, but I'm equally just as interested in the clean raw Pattys at the elevated price.

JeremyNick 02-05-2023 02:12 PM

[QUOTE=imbluestreak23;18690478]Think this is the right perspective.

At the same time, I also believe that this is why you see the Burrow/Herbie/Joshy stans all getting their panties in a wad as they have a vested interest in tearing down the guy on top. Most have plenty of high end that, if pops off, they are hoping lands in high end Patty territory. So they are just as if not more so interested in pumping up their guy and tearing down the guy who is currently on top as we all know where peak QB cards can land. 6-7 figs. That messes with people's knoggins.

I'm a buyer of clean raw cheap Burrows/Allens/Herberts at 1/10th the price of Patty, but I'm equally just as interested in the clean raw Pattys at the elevated price.[/QUOTE]

Who are the Burrow/Herbert/Joshua stans that tear down the guy on top?

ninjacookies 02-05-2023 07:26 PM

[QUOTE=imbluestreak23;18690478]

At the same time, I also believe that this is why you see the Burrow/Herbie/Joshy stans all getting their panties in a wad as they have a vested interest in tearing down the guy on top. Most have plenty of high end that, if pops off, they are hoping lands in high end Patty territory. So they are just as if not more so interested in pumping up their guy and tearing down the guy who is currently on top as we all know where peak QB cards can land. 6-7 figs. That messes with people's knoggins.

[/QUOTE]



Could certainly be recency bias at play, but it sure does feel like a disproportionate amount of Mahomebois megathread border hopping for the quick jabs.

Peep out the Burrows/Herbie/Josh discussions. Almost always bumped by the same culprit(s) during a bad outing. Seems like all the ketchupbois have to deal with is a scorned tb12 groupie.

Would be hella kosher if everyone could just throttle their insecurities a bit and stay in their investment lane.


But this is why we Blowout. :flexemoji :flexemoji

[IMG]https://media.tenor.com/r_ohng3ySBMAAAAC/its-literally-fun-fun.gif[/IMG]

imbluestreak23 02-05-2023 11:43 PM

[QUOTE=ninjacookies;18691252]Could certainly be recency bias at play, but it sure does feel like a disproportionate amount of Mahomebois megathread border hopping for the quick jabs.

Peep out the Burrows/Herbie/Josh discussions. Almost always bumped by the same culprit(s) during a bad outing. Seems like all the ketchupbois have to deal with is a scorned tb12 groupie.

Would be hella kosher if everyone could just throttle their insecurities a bit and stay in their investment lane.


But this is why we Blowout. :flexemoji :flexemoji

[IMG]https://media.tenor.com/r_ohng3ySBMAAAAC/its-literally-fun-fun.gif[/IMG][/QUOTE]

I don't see any reason why we can't buy them all. You buy all 5 you probably gonna get one winner!

ninjacookies 02-06-2023 12:05 AM

[QUOTE=imbluestreak23;18691654]I don't see any reason why we can't buy them all. You buy all 5 you probably gonna get one winner![/QUOTE]

[IMG]https://media.tenor.com/zJOcW01ihYcAAAAC/ive-been-saying-it-from-jump-i-told-you.gif[/IMG]


Clecter Unity.

Maybe by 2035.

JeremyNick 02-06-2023 01:34 PM

I’m still waiting on the list of Burrow/Allen/Herbert stans.

tjforce 02-06-2023 02:11 PM

[QUOTE=JeremyNick;18692372]I’m still waiting on the list of Burrow/Allen/Herbert stans.[/QUOTE]

I'm pretty sure that Blowout has abandoned Allen.

As for Herbert.... whoever was paying $MM+ for his cards this summer, and whoever paid $90k for his NT RPA /99 last month.

JeremyNick 02-06-2023 03:03 PM

[QUOTE=tjforce;18692436]I'm pretty sure that Blowout has abandoned Allen.

As for Herbert.... whoever was paying $MM+ for his cards this summer, and whoever paid $90k for his NT RPA /99 last month.[/QUOTE]

The ones harassing you guys?

tjforce 02-06-2023 03:15 PM

[QUOTE=JeremyNick;18692535]The ones harassing you guys?[/QUOTE]

I never said anything about anyone harassing me. So please don't put words in my mouth.

JeremyNick 02-06-2023 03:17 PM

[QUOTE=tjforce;18692559]I never said anything about anyone harassing me. So please don't put words in my mouth.[/QUOTE]

That was what my post was about that you replied to. Please read. See Imblue’s post above.

KhalDrogo 02-17-2023 07:26 AM

Burrow Immaculate shield auto went from $534k to $84k in one year.

BeastMode27 02-17-2023 10:21 AM

[QUOTE=KhalDrogo;18713163]Burrow Immaculate shield auto went from $534k to $84k in one year.[/QUOTE]

Still great for an insert, not even the actual rookie shield from the set. Had absolutely no business going that high in the first place.

blockedbyjames 02-17-2023 10:31 AM

[QUOTE=BeastMode27;18713379]Still great for an insert, not even the actual rookie shield from the set. Had absolutely no business going that high in the first place.[/QUOTE]

To be fair, the 'true' rookie in the set looks like junk compared to the premium RPA. This was the top Burrow card out of Immaculate by far.

Jbead61 02-21-2023 06:05 AM

I think his cards are still too high. They have come down but if he doesn’t win a SB next year it will be a big problem let alone the following year. He is a fantastic QB but he will just be that only. A fantastic QB of the current era and forgotten once retired. I know a lot of talk is coming out about the Bengals need to pay him right but I personally wish him and chase would leave. The Bengals owner is notoriously known as being cheap. They need a lot more than just a big QB contract to get to the next level consistently.

tjforce 02-21-2023 11:54 AM

[QUOTE=Jbead61;18719071]I think his cards are still too high. They have come down but if he doesn’t win a SB next year it will be a big problem let alone the following year. He is a fantastic QB but he will just be that only. A fantastic QB of the current era and forgotten once retired. I know a lot of talk is coming out about the Bengals need to pay him right but I personally wish him and chase would leave. The Bengals owner is notoriously known as being cheap. They need a lot more than just a big QB contract to get to the next level consistently.[/QUOTE]

2023 will be a big year for Burrow and the Bengals. They have cap room, and they'll still have Burrow and Chase on low cap hit rookie deals.

After that is when they'll need to make choices. If Burrow gets his $50MM per year, it'll be tough to even give Chase his $30MM, nevermind Higgins his $15-20MM and still be able to sustain a competitive defense (which has been the Bengals biggest post season strength these past 2 years).

Jbead61 02-21-2023 08:27 PM

[QUOTE=tjforce;18719407]2023 will be a big year for Burrow and the Bengals. They have cap room, and they'll still have Burrow and Chase on low cap hit rookie deals.

After that is when they'll need to make choices. If Burrow gets his $50MM per year, it'll be tough to even give Chase his $30MM, nevermind Higgins his $15-20MM and still be able to sustain a competitive defense (which has been the Bengals biggest post season strength these past 2 years).[/QUOTE]

I say Burrow goes for all of the money leaving not much cap space which is short sighted but in his mind I think he thinks he is worth it since Pat is Getty paid so much but doesn’t realize he has two SB’s under his belt. If he goes for all of that money it will kill his career and he will just be known as a really good QB and easily forgotten after he retires.

tjforce 02-21-2023 08:30 PM

[QUOTE=Jbead61;18720315]I say Burrow goes for all of the money leaving not much cap space which is short sighted but in his mind I think he thinks he is worth it since Pat is Getty paid so much but doesn’t realize he has two SB’s under his belt. If he goes for all of that money it will kill his career and he will just be known as a really good QB and easily forgotten after he retires.[/QUOTE]


Who knows.

If I'm Burrow, I'm taking the bag and telling the front office to get the job done, because the Chiefs FO did.

And I am sure as hell not taking less money that Watson, Herbert, or Tua.

He's going to get paid. Chase is going to get paid. Higgins is going to get paid (likely by someone else).

Jbead61 02-21-2023 08:56 PM

[QUOTE=tjforce;18720323]Who knows.

If I'm Burrow, I'm taking the bag and telling the front office to get the job done, because the Chiefs FO did.

And I am sure as hell not taking less money that Watson, Herbert, or Tua.

He's going to get paid. Chase is going to get paid. Higgins is going to get paid (likely by someone else).[/QUOTE]

I guess only time will tell but I say he doesn’t win a SB next year and values drop

graffiX 02-22-2023 08:44 AM

Bengals ownership was always notorious for being incompetent until a few years ago (I remember the ongoing joke that they didn't have an indoor practice facility), so it will be interesting to see if they don't muck this up.

Burrow is the real deal (I think he's the #2 QB in the NFL), so they better find a way to make this work and keep the team competitive.

weeds73 02-22-2023 09:03 AM

[QUOTE=graffiX;18720804]Bengals ownership was always notorious for being incompetent until a few years ago (I remember the ongoing joke that they didn't have an indoor practice facility), so it will be interesting to see if they don't muck this up.

Burrow is the real deal (I think he's the #2 QB in the NFL), so they better find a way to make this work and keep the team competitive.[/QUOTE]


Mike Brown has never been known as an owner that spends up on anything. Will be interesting to see how this all plays out


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

sethc1020 02-22-2023 09:27 AM

[QUOTE=weeds73;18720826]Mike Brown has never been known as an owner that spends up on anything. Will be interesting to see how this all plays out


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk[/QUOTE]

Hopefully he learned from the Carson Palmer ordeal and pays Burrow what he's worth. This is by far the best team Cincy has every had and they need to capitalize on it.

Dame 02-22-2023 09:42 AM

Tee Higgins is a luxury at this point. They'll do fine without him as long as they have Chase. It's all about that o-line for me. They're still below average even with their roster "improvements" from last season.

Would love to see Burrow/Bengals offense under at least a Top 10 O-line.

Dame 02-22-2023 09:45 AM

They'll pay to keep this culture intact.


It's not a coincidence they signed naming rights on their stadium for a reason in the Joe Burrow era.

tjforce 02-22-2023 10:26 AM

[QUOTE=Dame;18720876]Tee Higgins is a luxury at this point. They'll do fine without him as long as they have Chase. It's all about that o-line for me. They're still below average even with their roster "improvements" from last season.

Would love to see Burrow/Bengals offense under at least a Top 10 O-line.[/QUOTE]

The Oline wasn't that bad when healthy.

You can listen to me or not, but Burrow has issues avoiding pressure and escaping sacks. It's probably his biggest area that needs improvement.

If he ever gets a top 10 line AND figures out how to navigate the pocket well, then he'll be tough since his accuracy and arm strength are so solid.

JeremyNick 02-22-2023 10:38 AM

[QUOTE=tjforce;18720943]The Oline wasn't that bad when healthy.

You can listen to me or not, but Burrow has issues avoiding pressure and escaping sacks. It's probably his biggest area that needs improvement.

If he ever gets a top 10 line AND figures out how to navigate the pocket well, then he'll be tough since his accuracy and arm strength are so solid.[/QUOTE]

Stats, especially from last year, don’t back that up. I don’t have access to PFFs paywalled breakdown but he is far from bad.

[url]https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/heres-why-joe-burrow-has-been-sacked-less-this-season-behind-the-bengals-banged-up-offensive-line/amp/[/url]


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