[QUOTE=Noles939913;19106372]I’ll go out on a limb and say he has no chance. He’s literally worthless in nearly every facet of the game. He has 11.7 WAR and will be 31 when the next season starts. I guess I could go on…[/QUOTE]

I’m a big Schwarber fan. But I have to agree with him having no chance. 500 HRs or not, I can’t see it happening. Regardless of what one thinks of WAR, it’s hard to imagine HOF voters thinking seasons with 40 HRs and a sub 1.0 WAR being Hall worthy. It’s hard to imagine that now and I think it’s even more impossible in the future when he would actually be on the ballot.

[QUOTE=Skipscards;19106396]Whittmm, maybe I did miss the point. But it was never the bar.

Yes, McGriff got in. I would have voted for him. But like most VC inductees he was a borderline candidate. The borderline has players below it and above it. The BBWAA didn’t keep him out because of 7 HRs. In his best ballot, over 60% rejected him as a Hall of Famer. 7 more HRs may have picked up a few more votes, but not 35% more. The writers knew why McGriff missed 500 but at the time he is being considered there are players hitting 600 clean HRs. HRs were simply devalued in his era and he lacked any really eye-popping seasons.

The BBWAA may not always know best, but they have 100% of the time inducted slam dunk candidates who weren’t associated with PEDs. Every BBWAA HOFer was well above any reasonable line, and every 1st ballot HOFer even more so.[/QUOTE]

Herb Pennock wasn't well above any reasonable line. When he was elected, he had the worst ERA by over a half run, 3.60 to Lefty Grove's 3.06. He had the fewest wins of any pitcher the BBWAA had elected at the time. Carl Hubbell, a 2-time NL MVP that was essentially a first ballot selection having retired in 1943 and was elected 4 years later, was the only other BBWAA elected pitcher with less than 300 wins at the time.

Pennock's first 10 seasons he was 77-72 and 8 of the 10 seasons his ERA was higher than the league average. Then he was traded to the stacked Yankees dynasty where from 1923-1928 he won 115 games with a 3.03 ERA. He hung on for 5 more years as a part-time starter and each season his ERA was higher than the league average. For his career, his ERA was 6% above the league average.

Pennock was elected for only two reasons. First, he was considered a clutch pitcher going 5-0 with a 1.95 ERA in 10 World Series games. Second he died suddenly of a cerebral hemorrhage right before the 1948 HOF ballot and saw a huge spike in support getting him elected by 3 votes.

It is very likely that had Pennock lived, he would have never been elected to the HOF. He was the Phillies GM in 1947 when they threatened to not take the field against the Dodgers if Jackie Robinson played. The Phillies players were the most vile in their treatment of Jackie when he was on the field, Robinson saying his first game in Philadelphia was his darkest day in the game, while Pennock watched from the stands. There are accusations against Pennock as to how much of this he initiated, but even his lack of action in stopping this event should disqualify him from the HOF due to the character clause.

I always hear "The Schwaaaaab!" said in Chris Berman's voice when I read Kyle's name or see him on the field.

Is Kyle Schwarber a HOFer?
 

[QUOTE=Noles939913;19106372]I’ll go out on a limb and say he has no chance. He’s literally worthless in nearly every facet of the game. He has 11.7 WAR and will be 31 when the next season starts. I guess I could go on…[/QUOTE]


Schwarber is not on a HOF track. I think we all agree on that. But he’s hardly worthless. The about-to-be back-to-back pennant winners aren’t paying him $20 million/year to be a worthless leadoff hitter.

Hitting lots of home runs, and scoring and driving in 100+ runs is extremely valuable. In fact, the whole point of the game is to score runs while preventing your opponent from scoring runs. If he’s a major cog in one of those objectives, that would suggest he’s pretty valuable.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

There will be a gradual decline in power similar to every other player after Age 34. He's not going to get the AB's he needs being an all or nothing DH. He'll probably get to 400 but 500 is a stretch.

[QUOTE=eye4talent;19106675]Schwarber is not on a HOF track. I think we all agree on that. But he’s hardly worthless. The about-to-be back-to-back pennant winners aren’t paying him $20 million/year to be a worthless leadoff hitter.

Hitting lots of home runs, and scoring and driving in 100+ runs is extremely valuable. In fact, the whole point of the game is to score runs while preventing your opponent from scoring runs. If he’s a major cog in one of those objectives, that would suggest he’s pretty valuable.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro[/QUOTE]

They are paying him $20 million/year because they were hoping he continue to be the hitter he was in 2021, not turn back into the hitter he was in 2020.

It's a bad contract. Even using Fangraphs generous dollars per WAR, they've paid him $39 million for $33 million worth of production.

[QUOTE=rats60;19106667]Herb Pennock wasn't well above any reasonable line. When he was elected, he had the worst ERA by over a half run, 3.60 to Lefty Grove's 3.06. He had the fewest wins of any pitcher the BBWAA had elected at the time. Carl Hubbell, a 2-time NL MVP that was essentially a first ballot selection having retired in 1943 and was elected 4 years later, was the only other BBWAA elected pitcher with less than 300 wins at the time.

Pennock's first 10 seasons he was 77-72 and 8 of the 10 seasons his ERA was higher than the league average. Then he was traded to the stacked Yankees dynasty where from 1923-1928 he won 115 games with a 3.03 ERA. He hung on for 5 more years as a part-time starter and each season his ERA was higher than the league average. For his career, his ERA was 6% above the league average.

Pennock was elected for only two reasons. First, he was considered a clutch pitcher going 5-0 with a 1.95 ERA in 10 World Series games. Second he died suddenly of a cerebral hemorrhage right before the 1948 HOF ballot and saw a huge spike in support getting him elected by 3 votes.

It is very likely that had Pennock lived, he would have never been elected to the HOF. He was the Phillies GM in 1947 when they threatened to not take the field against the Dodgers if Jackie Robinson played. The Phillies players were the most vile in their treatment of Jackie when he was on the field, Robinson saying his first game in Philadelphia was his darkest day in the game, while Pennock watched from the stands. There are accusations against Pennock as to how much of this he initiated, but even his lack of action in stopping this event should disqualify him from the HOF due to the character clause.[/QUOTE]

What is being left off the debate when utilizing Herb Pennock besides his 7 World Series and 5 WS rings. Pennock retired with 241 wins which was very high up the all time list is that he had the caveat of being the John Smoltz before Smoltz. Saves back in those days were rare. Not many players in his day had more and I didn’t notice anyone on the list with 241 wins and at least 37 saves ?

Pennock has 3 caveats while Kyle has yet to hit 500 HR’s, reached 2 WS’s, then ? ?. Herb resume destroys Kyle’s resume. KS isn’t done but unless he wins 4 World Series MVP’s then it’s going to be a no go to the Hall show.

FYI, it was much more difficult to earn a save back in those days then in the very modern era.

[QUOTE=whitmm;19106765]They are paying him $20 million/year because they were hoping he continue to be the hitter he was in 2021, not turn back into the hitter he was in 2020.

It's a bad contract. Even using Fangraphs generous dollars per WAR, they've paid him $39 million for $33 million worth of production.[/QUOTE]

what would his war have been this year if harper didn't get hurt and he would have been able to DH.

[QUOTE=Skipscards;19106396] Every BBWAA HOFer was well above any reasonable line, [/QUOTE]

Scott Rolen
Larry Walker
Edgar Martinez
Jeff Bagwell
Tim Raines
Andre Dawson

Just a few players that I wouldn't consider well above a reasonable line, if you're going to consider Fred McGriff to be below

[QUOTE=whitmm;19106765]They are paying him $20 million/year because they were hoping he continue to be the hitter he was in 2021, not turn back into the hitter he was in 2020.

It's a bad contract. Even using Fangraphs generous dollars per WAR, they've paid him $39 million for $33 million worth of production.[/QUOTE]


A major run producer on a team that’s about to reach its second consecutive World Series, and you think it’s a bad contract?

$/fWAR doesn’t matter.

It’s the results on the field: Dude shows up with big bat, hits ball far, scores runs, team wins and gets to the championship round.

It’s not: Jay Jaffe’s biggest fanboy tweaked a derivative of a formula to produce a catch-all result that theoretically represents a player’s cumulative value.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[QUOTE=eye4talent;19106836]A major run producer on a team that’s about to reach its second consecutive World Series, and you think it’s a bad contract?

$/fWAR doesn’t matter.

It’s the results on the field: Dude shows up with big bat, hits ball far, scores runs, team wins and gets to the championship round.

It’s not: Jay Jaffe’s biggest fanboy tweaked a derivative of a formula to produce a catch-all result that theoretically represents a player’s cumulative value.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro[/QUOTE]

Yes, overpaying for production makes it a bad contract. Really not that hard to understand.

Results on the field, you mean leading the majors in strikeouts? The guy who finished dead last in batting average among qualified hitters? The guy who can't play any position on the field? Great, he hits the ball a long ways, there's more to baseball than hitting the ball far.

Alec Bohm was paid less than a million dollars this season and drove in 97 runs. Are you going to tell me that those 7 more runs driven in are worth $19 million? Or what about Brandon Marsh, who was also paid $19 million less and led Schwarber in wRC+ 125 to 119 and can actually play defense? Same with Bryson Stott.

[QUOTE=whitmm;19106973]Yes, overpaying for production makes it a bad contract. Really not that hard to understand.

Results on the field, you mean leading the majors in strikeouts? The guy who finished dead last in batting average among qualified hitters? The guy who can't play any position on the field? Great, he hits the ball a long ways, there's more to baseball than hitting the ball far.

Alec Bohm was paid less than a million dollars this season and drove in 97 runs. Are you going to tell me that those 7 more runs driven in are worth $19 million? Or what about Brandon Marsh, who was also paid $19 million less and led Schwarber in wRC+ 125 to 119 and can actually play defense? Same with Bryson Stott.[/QUOTE]

Oh come on. You absolutely know those guys are underpaid because of the way baseball salaries are structured before arbitration. And their being underpaid has no bearing on whether Schwarber is overpaid. Comparing the salary and production of pre-arbitration/arbitration players to post-arbitration players on a free agent contract is a fool's errand because every single starter on a major league team who isn't on a free agent contract is making significantly less than they are worth on the open market.

[QUOTE=whitmm;19106765]They are paying him $20 million/year because they were hoping he continue to be the hitter he was in 2021, not turn back into the hitter he was in 2020.

It's a bad contract. Even using Fangraphs generous dollars per WAR, they've paid him $39 million for $33 million worth of production.[/QUOTE]

$39m for $33m worth of production? About 85% worth? There’s a lot of teams out there who have handed out big contracts lately who would jump at that say, “can I have some more, please?”

…but obviously, Schwarbie isn’t a HOFer. He does have the potential to a Post-Season Legend though.

[QUOTE=OhioLawyerF5;19107000]Oh come on. You absolutely know those guys are underpaid because of the way baseball salaries are structured before arbitration. And their being underpaid has no bearing on whether Schwarber is overpaid. Comparing the salary and production of pre-arbitration/arbitration players to post-arbitration players on a free agent contract is a fool's errand because every single starter on a major league team who isn't on a free agent contract is making significantly less than they are worth on the open market.[/QUOTE]

It's almost like paying players on the free agent market is a bad idea. Owners in the NFL seem to have figured that out with running backs.

this question cant be real. adam dunn would be a HOF before schwawbuh

hell no

[QUOTE=whitmm;19107010]It's almost like paying players on the free agent market is a bad idea. Owners in the NFL seem to have figured that out with running backs.[/QUOTE]

Or it's almost like it's criminal how players get paid league minimum for years before making what their services would bring on the open market.

[QUOTE=OhioLawyerF5;19107052]Or it's almost like it's criminal how players get paid league minimum for years before making what their services would bring on the open market.[/QUOTE]

Glad you agree that a team can get the same production that Schwarber put up for considerably less money.

This thread has everything! Old timey collectors reminiscing about their personal experiences from the 1940s. Braves fans providing negative critiques of the Phillies roster. Who knew a Schwarber thread would bring in such a diverse set of interests?

[QUOTE=JoshMN;19107078]This thread has everything! Old timey collectors reminiscing about their personal experiences from the 1940s. Braves fans providing negative critiques of the Phillies roster. Who knew a Schwarber thread would bring in such a diverse set of interests?[/QUOTE]

Marcell Ozuna is on a bad contract. He hit 40 home runs and drove in 100 runs this season. He had a better year than Schwarber and made less money.

Schwarber's not a hall of famer, even if he gets to 500 home runs. And for $20 million a year, I would expect a little more than just some home runs.

[QUOTE=whitmm;19107056]Glad you agree that a team can get the same production that Schwarber put up for considerably less money.[/QUOTE]

Only if they already have that player in their farm system. Because, as I've shown, you can't do that on the free agent market. So sure, there might be players out there who can produce for league minimum. But they are few and far between and you can't just go buy them. You have to already have them.

[QUOTE=JoshMN;19107078]This thread has everything! [B]Old timey collectors reminiscing about their personal experiences from the 1940[/B]s. Braves fans providing negative critiques of the Phillies roster. Who knew a Schwarber thread would bring in such a diverse set of interests?[/QUOTE]

You don’t even have to mention a name :cry:

[QUOTE=OhioLawyerF5;19107093]Only if they already have that player in their farm system. Because, as I've shown, you can't do that on the free agent market. So sure, there might be players out there who can produce for league minimum. But they are few and far between and you can't just go buy them. You have to already have them.[/QUOTE]

So you agree? Got it.

Sure beats overpaying on the open market.

Jorge Soler was paid less on the open market and put up similar numbers. Justin Turner put up similar numbers and was paid less on the open market.

[QUOTE=whitmm;19106765]They are paying him $20 million/year because they were hoping he continue to be the hitter he was in 2021, not turn back into the hitter he was in 2020.

It's a bad contract. Even using Fangraphs generous dollars per WAR, they've paid him $39 million for $33 million worth of production.[/QUOTE]

Maybe the Phillies paid him to have a Post Season WPA of 1.00 compared to the Dodgers paying Betts to be a regular season stud but have Mookie be unproductive with a negative WPA when the playoffs arrive ? Teams know what they are paying for. Some GM’s understand that they build for the entire season, while others create teams to be regular season strong. History is a strong replicator.

The problem with dollars per WAR, is that WAR is only a regular season stat and certain players only produce during the regular season. Kyle produces much longer than what Fangraphs critiques his contractual value.

it's not my money. Pay em all.