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-   -   Observations on the current state of the hobby from a show this weekend (https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1519226)

bravesfan#1 11-19-2022 11:04 PM

the show in Salisbury, NC was great for buying today. Spent about $5k on singles that were 50-70% of recent comps. I could tell people are starting to bite the bullet and move some stuff!

rj.cataldo 11-19-2022 11:08 PM

[QUOTE=SearchPatrol;18550136]I have been at the big Chicago Fanatics show for the past 2 days and here's my review.

The weather Friday was awful so the attendance was very light to me. Not surprising, worst autograph list for the 3 days and the sneak peek price to enter was $10 more than on Saturday's entrance fee.

But today it was very crowded. I'm 50, but the hobby now is very young compared to years ago. Was watching this table next to me while going thru $1 boxes. The table was maned by 4 younger guys, aged 25-30 maybe. Almost everyone who had contact with them was the same age or younger. Mostly younger.

Seems that today's Trade Night mentality has carried over to the larger shows. 90% of the people wanted to trade, or just sell outright. Don't know if this is a good thing or not. Seems like nobody is really collecting anymore, just speculating. I understand if you are younger and have bills to pay, you want more liquid cards. But while I was looking at box after box, nobody else was. It was full of Mahomes, Brady, Lebron and some Kobe's. Except for the very young children (under 12) they remained untouched. But not much money changing hands.

Feel good about the National though. It was really a well attended show today.[/QUOTE]


I was at the Chicago Show today and I was shocked at how crowded it was. Tons of foot traffic, tons of people in autograph lines. That said I did hear a dealer or two comment on transactions being lighter. There were a bunch of people trying to sell to dealers, but not a ton of money changing hands. There was a bulk of vintage and modern stuff. Much of the things I saw I wanted were any where from slightly to substantially overpriced. I did ultimately leave with one card on my list that I happened to Cole across and got for a very fair price. The dealer was friendly and easy to deal with which is certainly not a common experience!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

JoeAdam 11-20-2022 10:31 AM

[QUOTE=rj.cataldo;18550700]I was at the Chicago Show today and I was shocked at how crowded it was. Tons of foot traffic, tons of people in autograph lines. That said I did hear a dealer or two comment on transactions being lighter. There were a bunch of people trying to sell to dealers, but not a ton of money changing hands. There was a bulk of vintage and modern stuff. Much of the things I saw I wanted were any where from slightly to substantially overpriced. I did ultimately leave with one card on my list that I happened to Cole across and got for a very fair price. The dealer was friendly and easy to deal with which is certainly not a common experience!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk[/QUOTE]

I was there as well. All these dealers with display cases full of cards all $10k+. Can’t imagine those cards will ever sell. Lots of dealers checking comps on prices, but the ones I bought from were willing to give a good deal for cash.

abbeyroadwalker 11-20-2022 11:04 AM

Yep, Brett is a good man. Worked together many times with him at Hickory. I've never been to the show at the WNC AG Center, although I've been to many other events there in the past. Great easy-in easy out venue. Looking forward to this one. I wonder if I should bring my TC Wander SSP for offers..?.

abbeyroadwalker 11-20-2022 11:08 AM

Travis does the Fairgrounds Show in Spartanburg. He's a good man too. Fair & Honest. I once sold there just as Tatis was staring to catch on fire. I had all his big cards including the 2019 S2 Flagship Gold /2019. Sold the hell out of 'em, and then regretted selling them "too soon". People were even buying Kelenic back then. You just never know with this hobby.

LVDan 11-20-2022 04:15 PM

It’s that time of the year when you put only half serious bids n offers in only to wake up and see you have some cards to pay for.

vintg 11-20-2022 06:52 PM

was at the chicago show early on friday, spent my budget of approx. $ 2k
on high eye appeal vintage, in the "4" range.

'61 mantle, sgc 3.5
'64 mantle, psa 2.5
'59 gibson rookie, sgc 3.5
'72 julious erving rookie, psa 5
'58 mays, psa 3
'55 ted williams, psa 4
'57 koufax, sgc 4

all had really nice centering, no wrinkles

worked hard at it, bought from five different dealers. must have visited
20-30 vintage dealers.

went back this a.m., great crowd , especially for a sunday. talked to four
or five dealers i know and trust (none of whom i bought a card from on friday, lol), all reported "very, very decent shows". three were out of town dealers.

one friend unfortunately had a t206 eddie cicotte stolen, sgc 3. which sucks
a$$. people who steal cards literally should be punched in the head.

ended up buying ANOTHER '61 mantle, psa 4, might crack and resubmit to
sgc. price was really decent.

gresh87 11-20-2022 07:20 PM

[QUOTE=LVDan;18551575]It’s that time of the year when you put only half serious bids n offers in only to wake up and see you have some cards to pay for.[/QUOTE]

Yes. We need a term for this.

MiamiMarlinsFan 11-20-2022 07:38 PM

[QUOTE=LVDan;18551575]It’s that time of the year when you put only half serious bids n offers in only to wake up and see you have some cards to pay for.[/QUOTE]

Yuuuuuuup.

Asian62150 11-21-2022 10:56 AM

Went to the Chicago show this wknd.

I'm into basketball autos like Epic Signatures and inscriptions like Legendary Inscriptions, Notable Nicknames, etc....

In terms of buying/selling/trading those were strong, even in relation to the peak. I haven't seen much of a pull back, if any. But to be honest, the rare ones come up so infrequently so there aren't many comps to use and ppl still pay strong because they get scooped up and locked away.

eastbayak 11-21-2022 11:15 AM

[QUOTE=gresh87;18551940]Yes. We need a term for this.[/QUOTE]

It’s called drunk bidding.

crpav 11-21-2022 11:36 AM

Don't know who needs to see this, or want to but:

[url]https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1594724036567003137?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1594724036567003137%7Ctwgr%5E5f5a127f06108271df048e6091f808870b73c12c%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fluxoid.com%2Fthreads%2Finflation-the-upcoming-recession.12092%2Fpage-11[/url]

clocsta2323 11-21-2022 11:38 AM

[QUOTE=crpav;18552936]Don't knoiw who needs to see this, or want to but:

[url]https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1594724036567003137?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1594724036567003137%7Ctwgr%5E5f5a127f06108271df048e6091f808870b73c12c%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fluxoid.com%2Fthreads%2Finflation-the-upcoming-recession.12092%2Fpage-11[/url][/QUOTE]

That's sad. Being debt-free (excluding mortgage) is a wonderful way to live life. Refinancing to 2.75% last year was life-changing in hindsight.

mfw13 11-21-2022 11:48 AM

[QUOTE=clocsta2323;18552939]Being debt-free (excluding mortgage) is a wonderful way to live life. Refinancing to 2.75% last year was life-changing in hindsight.[/QUOTE]

Yep.

Best financial decision we ever made way to pay off our mortgage earlier when we had the opportunity.

Living life without debt hanging over your head is great for your mental health!

KhalDrogo 11-21-2022 11:49 AM

[QUOTE=crpav;18552936]Don't know who needs to see this, or want to but:

[url]https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1594724036567003137?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1594724036567003137%7Ctwgr%5E5f5a127f06108271df048e6091f808870b73c12c%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fluxoid.com%2Fthreads%2Finflation-the-upcoming-recession.12092%2Fpage-11[/url][/QUOTE]
I always wonder what the APR is on all that credit card debt. Have really loved all the 0% APR plans over the years, but looks like that is over.

What’s actually scary is that the credit card debt number doesn’t include pay over time programs.

Above the Rim 11-21-2022 12:08 PM

Gee, I dunno. Yesterday I put in a couple serious bids (mid-comps) on a 1960 Yogi Berra SGC and a Larry Bird PSA. I thought good chance to nab these extremely nice centered cards ... nope, outbid. Sigh. Maybe its a vintage thing as nice cards seem to be doing quite well these days, or a top shelf centering thing, also doing quite well lately.

thenightman 11-21-2022 12:14 PM

[QUOTE=crpav;18552936]Don't know who needs to see this, or want to but:

[url]https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1594724036567003137?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1594724036567003137%7Ctwgr%5E5f5a127f06108271df048e6091f808870b73c12c%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fluxoid.com%2Fthreads%2Finflation-the-upcoming-recession.12092%2Fpage-11[/url][/QUOTE]

I'm happy that my personal graph is the exact opposite.

premium1981 11-21-2022 01:09 PM

I’m charging as much as I can. Someone will eventually forgive it.

Raleigh504 11-21-2022 01:32 PM

Had a roommate years ago (probably close to over a decade ago) that would constantly complain about not having any money ever. Come to find out he only paid the minimum on his credit card each month and was shocked that me and the other roommate paid ours off each month. For every 1 person who has financial understanding, there are at least 50+ people who can't grasp it.

I am starting to see the people who hoarded boxes coming down in prices slowly. I assume it will keep getting lower and lower.

theshowandme 11-21-2022 02:03 PM

Someone ran a poll the other day on twitter. The results were dumbfounding as were the comments.

What would you rather have:

1. 850 credit score for the rest of your life
2. $4,000 per month for the rest of your life
3. $750,000 in cash right now

I would say that 90% of people were choosing #2 because they do not understand what compound interest could do with #3 when invested

scotthenrichs 11-21-2022 03:55 PM

[QUOTE=theshowandme;18553167]Someone ran a poll the other day on twitter. The results were dumbfounding as were the comments.

What would you rather have:

1. 850 credit score for the rest of your life
2. $4,000 per month for the rest of your life
3. $750,000 in cash right now

I would say that 90% of people were choosing #2 because they do not understand what compound interest could do with #3 when invested[/QUOTE]

That's assuming you weren't burning through $625/month * however much interest rate you expect to make on your $750K investment for spending money :D

Asian62150 11-21-2022 06:06 PM

[QUOTE=theshowandme;18553167]Someone ran a poll the other day on twitter. The results were dumbfounding as were the comments.

What would you rather have:

1. 850 credit score for the rest of your life
2. $4,000 per month for the rest of your life
3. $750,000 in cash right now

I would say that 90% of people were choosing #2 because they do not understand what compound interest could do with #3 when invested[/QUOTE]

A lot of ppl lack discipline/self-control (myself included at times) and would prefer the "sure thing" for the rest of their lives over the fixed amount that you could blow on in one purchase.

SpartanWarrior 11-22-2022 12:47 AM

[QUOTE=theshowandme;18553167]Someone ran a poll the other day on twitter. The results were dumbfounding as were the comments.

What would you rather have:

1. 850 credit score for the rest of your life
2. $4,000 per month for the rest of your life
3. $750,000 in cash right now

I would say that 90% of people were choosing #2 because they do not understand what compound interest could do with #3 when invested[/QUOTE]

------------------------------------------------
I'm old so I'd take #3. But you asked me 20 years ago I'd say....

I'll take #2. You can have the risk of investing the 750K.

I'll enjoy my extra dinners out with my wife, pick up a few more cards when I hit a show, buy more stuff for the grandkids and sleep well at night!

Raleigh504 11-22-2022 07:17 AM

[QUOTE=theshowandme;18553167]Someone ran a poll the other day on twitter. The results were dumbfounding as were the comments.

What would you rather have:

1. 850 credit score for the rest of your life
2. $4,000 per month for the rest of your life
3. $750,000 in cash right now

I would say that 90% of people were choosing #2 because they do not understand what compound interest could do with #3 when invested[/QUOTE]

The only way #2 works better for the long term is if you invested it all as well. If you invested both for 50 years (not touching any of it) at the same average rate then #2 would give you $14MM vs $13.8MM over 50 years. I guess it depends on how old a person is, how good they are at investing and such.

Also for #2 to equal about the same as #3 over that time ($13.8MM), you would just need to invest $3,950 each month giving yourself $50 to buy cards.

#3 works better if it is 46 years or less to have more money at the end of it. So it really would depend on someone's age and anticipated death age too (mid 30s and all my grandparents lived until mid 80s with 3 living to 99, 97 & 94). So I would take the $4k a month and just invest it all while still working.

Scottish Punk 11-22-2022 08:08 AM

[QUOTE=Raleigh504;18554500]The only way #2 works better for the long term is if you invested it all as well. If you invested both for 50 years (not touching any of it) at the same average rate then #2 would give you $14MM vs $13.8MM over 50 years. I guess it depends on how old a person is, how good they are at investing and such.

Also for #2 to equal about the same as #3 over that time ($13.8MM), you would just need to invest $3,950 each month giving yourself $50 to buy cards.

#3 works better if it is 46 years or less to have more money at the end of it. So it really would depend on someone's age and anticipated death age too (mid 30s and all my grandparents lived until mid 80s with 3 living to 99, 97 & 94). So I would take the $4k a month and just invest it all while still working.[/QUOTE]

If you look at just raw dollars. It would take 15 and half years at the monthly rate to get to 750K. If you are younger, taking number two option would seem to be the no brainer. Unless your investments of the 750K in year 16 are getting you more than 4k a month in return, you are better off with the steady cash flow.

This is of course you aren't even taking anything out of the initial 750K. Depending on you situation, paying off higher interest date right away might be wise, but that of course eats into the rolling snowball for the investment.


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