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-   -   Mookie Betts is kind of good (https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1202955)

broncomanning18 08-21-2018 11:37 AM

[QUOTE=dbpsooner;13839021]Are these his stats as a lead off hitter or simply stats from his first at bat in the game as a lead off hitter? Who cares how he does in his first AB of the game?[/QUOTE]

I am pretty sure its just his avg in the lead off in his 1st at bat.

dbpsooner 08-21-2018 11:47 AM

I just don't get it. If a guy goes 4-5 with 4 HRs in a game was it a bad game because he led off the game with an out??? What is so significant about the first AB of the game vs others?

Boo 08-21-2018 11:49 AM

Wonder what his stats are for games that he drops a deuce within two hours of start time vs games he doesn't

NeedChapmans 08-21-2018 12:01 PM

[QUOTE=dbpsooner;13839021]Are these his stats as a lead off hitter or simply stats from his first at bat in the game as a lead off hitter? Who cares how he does in his first AB of the game?[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=broncomanning18;13839197]I am pretty sure its just his avg in the lead off in his 1st at bat.[/QUOTE]

Correct. Every hitter leads off an inning ~100+ times a season. This is specific to his 1 AB every night, leading off the game.

To me, this would suggest he's simply a much better hitter after he's seen pitches. For whatever reason, he's just not as good as the first guy in the box, and perhaps if he were hitting 2 or 3; he would be able to see some pitches and would have better success. In an age where metrics and #'s are so valuable, wouldn't these suggest Mookie should not be the guy leading off the game? This is no small sample size; this is 400 AB's punctuated by his recent string of awfulness.

Not only is he not getting on base at anything close to his usual; but he's striking out more than 2x as much in these AB's. Simply not prepared for this selection of AB's in a season; switch it up.

(BTW, his cycle is the one game post-all star break he's lead off w/ a hit).

NeedChapmans 08-21-2018 12:11 PM

FYI, the numbers I'm referencing. (2018 to 2015 in descending order)

[IMG]https://image.ibb.co/fAC7he/Mookie_Leadoff.jpg[/IMG]

dbpsooner 08-21-2018 12:11 PM

[QUOTE=NeedChapmans;13839275]Correct. Every hitter leads off an inning ~100+ times a season. This is specific to his 1 AB every night, leading off the game.

To me, this would suggest he's simply a much better hitter after he's seen pitches. For whatever reason, he's just not as good as the first guy in the box, and perhaps if he were hitting 2 or 3; he would be able to see some pitches and would have better success. In an age where metrics and #'s are so valuable, wouldn't these suggest Mookie should not be the guy leading off the game? This is no small sample size; this is 400 AB's punctuated by his recent string of awfulness.

Not only is he not getting on base at anything close to his usual; but he's striking out more than 2x as much in these AB's. Simply not prepared for this selection of AB's in a season; switch it up.

(BTW, his cycle is the one game post-all star break he's lead off w/ a hit).[/QUOTE]

There could be a lot of reasons for this. He may have a different approach in the first AB and be taking more pitches than normal. This could benefit him and his teammates later in the game. I think they want him leading off to get him the most at bats possible. I do not think there is any reason to look any deeper into it honestly.

NeedChapmans 08-21-2018 12:17 PM

[QUOTE=dbpsooner;13839300]There could be a lot of reasons for this. He may have a different approach in the first AB and be taking more pitches than normal. This could benefit him and his teammates later in the game. [B]I think they want him leading off to get him the most at bats possible[/B]. I do not think there is any reason to look any deeper into it honestly.[/QUOTE]

This can be accomplished just as well by putting him in the #2 hole. The [URL="https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/buying-generic-plate-appearances-by-lineup-spot/"]difference between hitting 1st and hitting 2nd in an entire season is 14 plate appearances[/URL]. Yes, that's 14 times Mookie would be up vs. a guy like Benintendi ... but the variance between them is so small, you're talking about getting on base maybe one or two more times in an entire season. Maybe.

Mookie should not be a leadoff hitter. Nothing more to say; he's simply really bad at it.

NeedChapmans 08-21-2018 06:22 PM

1-27; BB, 12K.

Ohh look; Mr. Automatic Out struck out again.

broncomanning18 08-21-2018 07:12 PM

[QUOTE=NeedChapmans;13840523]1-27; BB, 12K.

Ohh look; Mr. Automatic Out struck out again.[/QUOTE]

It is a very odd interesting stat, I tend to agree with you in the fact that if he is this good overall with being this bad in the 1st at bat, imagine how good he would be if he could hit better in the 1st at bat

rman112 08-21-2018 08:07 PM

[QUOTE=NeedChapmans;13840523]1-27; BB, 12K.

Ohh look; Mr. Automatic Out struck out again.[/QUOTE]

He wants to make sure Martinez gets the MVP.

NeedChapmans 08-22-2018 06:25 PM

Stop the presses!

Mookie K'ed again.

1-28; BB, 13K

broncomanning18 08-22-2018 07:08 PM

[QUOTE=NeedChapmans;13843666]Stop the presses!

Mookie K'ed again.

1-28; BB, 13K[/QUOTE]

maybe he doesnt want to hit leadoff either, and trying to tell the manager through his play. Like when you dont clean well enough so the wife wont make you clean anymore

NeedChapmans 08-23-2018 12:18 PM

[QUOTE=NeedChapmans;13843666]Stop the presses!

Mookie K'ed again.

1-28; BB, 13K[/QUOTE]

Yet another strikeout ... 5th in a row I believe.

1-29; BB, 14K.

I'm the only person that sees this?

spuds1961 08-23-2018 12:32 PM

[QUOTE=NeedChapmans;13845740]Yet another strikeout ... 5th in a row I believe.

1-29; BB, 14K.

I'm the only person that sees this?[/QUOTE]

As long as the team is playing at a .700 winning percentage they probably see no reason to change it. I am sure they notice but until it starts costing them games it doesn't make sense to switch up the batting order.

NeedChapmans 08-23-2018 12:36 PM

[QUOTE=spuds1961;13845775]As long as the team is playing at a .700 winning percentage they probably see no reason to change it. I am sure they notice but until it starts costing them games it doesn't make sense to switch up the batting order.[/QUOTE]

I certainly understand this point; and I appreciate that Boston has little need to fix what appears to be an "issue".

But what about Mookie fixing the issue. He's down 0-2 on a daily basis, watching these fastballs go right by, then flailing and 0-2 and 1-2 off-speed pitches out of the zone. For four years now; dude has been terrible in these AB's ... how about a change to the approach?

spuds1961 08-23-2018 12:45 PM

[QUOTE=NeedChapmans;13845794]I certainly understand this point; and I appreciate that Boston has little need to fix what appears to be an "issue".

But what about Mookie fixing the issue. He's down 0-2 on a daily basis, watching these fastballs go right by, then flailing and 0-2 and 1-2 off-speed pitches out of the zone. For four years now; dude has been terrible in these AB's ... how about a change to the approach?[/QUOTE]

I root for the Yankees and get to watch Gardner lead off so remember there are worse options than Mookie. If his bad at bat is the first of the game so be it, at least he can't hit into a double play. I have noticed just from the games I have watched since you brought up this Mookie stat that a lot of leadoff hitters are falling into a hole in their first at bat. I think it might be something to do with trying to bring the starting pitchers pitch count up, but that shouldn't be practiced in the first at bat of the game.

NeedChapmans 08-23-2018 12:59 PM

[QUOTE=spuds1961;13845824]I root for the Yankees and get to watch Gardner lead off so remember there are worse options than Mookie. If his bad at bat is the first of the game so be it, at least he can't hit into a double play. I have noticed just from the games I have watched since you brought up this Mookie stat that a lot of leadoff hitters are falling into a hole in their first at bat. I think it might be something to do with trying to bring the starting pitchers pitch count up, but that shouldn't be practiced in the first at bat of the game.[/QUOTE]

Gardner is much much better than Mookie at this.

[IMG]https://image.ibb.co/eyWGfz/Brett_Gardner_Lead_Off.jpg[/IMG]

spuds1961 08-23-2018 01:07 PM

[QUOTE=NeedChapmans;13845872]Gardner is much much better than Mookie at this.

[IMG]https://image.ibb.co/eyWGfz/Brett_Gardner_Lead_Off.jpg[/IMG][/QUOTE]

I knew you would find the stat for Gardner and yes in the first at bat I am shocked he is doing that well.

NeedChapmans 08-23-2018 01:15 PM

[QUOTE=spuds1961;13845889]I knew you would find the stat for Gardner and yes in the first at bat I am shocked he is doing that well.[/QUOTE]

70 points higher than his career OPS; he's proven to be a solid lead-off the game kind of guy. (.365 OBP is very good).

Mookie simply has not conveyed that ability in his career. As while he's been bad overall, he's been quite putrid lately.

Ray27Ray52 08-23-2018 01:17 PM

[QUOTE=NeedChapmans;13845740]Yet another strikeout ... 5th in a row I believe.

1-29; BB, 14K.

I'm the only person that sees this?[/QUOTE]

You are really the only person who thinks it is important. Honestly it's truly bizarre that you keep track of this when the guy is hitting .340 and in contention for the MVP.

Now if we want to debate that Mookie would be more valuable in the 3 hole I can get on board with that. But to constantly bring up that a guy doesn't get a hit in his first AB of the game, as if it is really costing the Red Sox games, I don't know how to counter that tremendous illogical leap.

NeedChapmans 08-23-2018 01:28 PM

[QUOTE=Ray27Ray52;13845916]You are really the only person who thinks it is important. Honestly it's truly bizarre that you keep track of this when the guy is hitting .340 and in contention for the MVP.

Now if we want to debate that Mookie would be more valuable in the 3 hole I can get on board with that. But to constantly bring up that a guy doesn't get a hit in his first of the game, [B]as if it is really costing the Red Sox games[/B], I don't know how to counter that tremendous illogical leap.[/QUOTE]

I never stated this.

I don't know how (yet) to quantify lead-off AB's into Wins and Losses. What I do know is that Mookie is one of the worst lead-off hitters in baseball, specific to lead-off AB's. Gimme some time, I'm sure I'll figure it out ... but even you can admit he's been utterly atrocious since the break.

And he's lost 0.5 WAR off his #'s just in the last 10 days. He's slumping as a whole, HARD.

Ray27Ray52 08-23-2018 01:30 PM

[QUOTE=NeedChapmans;13845952]I never stated this.

I don't know how (yet) to quantify lead-off AB's into Wins and Losses. What I do know is that Mookie is one of the worst lead-off hitters in baseball, specific to lead-off AB's. Gimme some time, I'm sure I'll figure it out ... but even you cannot admit he's been utterly atrocious since the break.

And he's lost 0.5 WAR off his #'s just in the last 10 days. He's slumping as a whole, HARD.[/QUOTE]

Again, I am truly baffled as to why you are placing so much emphasis on the first at bat of the game. It is nearly inconsequential when factoring in the totality of his at bats.

NeedChapmans 08-23-2018 01:38 PM

[QUOTE=Ray27Ray52;13845963]Again, I am truly baffled as to why you are placing so much emphasis on the first at bat of the game. [B]It is nearly inconsequential when factoring in the totality of his at bats.[/B][/QUOTE]

No, it's almost 25% of his PA's across a season (and his career). Perhaps you'd like to simply dismiss 150 AB's/year as "inconsequential" ... but they are just as valuable as AB's in the 2nd - 9th innings.

Ray27Ray52 08-23-2018 01:44 PM

[QUOTE=NeedChapmans;13845986]No, it's almost 25% of his PA's across a season (and his career). Perhaps you'd like to simply dismiss 150 AB's/year as "inconsequential" ... but they are just as valuable as AB's in the 2nd - 9th innings.[/QUOTE]

I mean you are really reaching for something to be upset about. He has an OBP of .426, which is 2nd in all of baseball. What more do you want from the guy? I mean honestly?

NeedChapmans 08-23-2018 01:49 PM

[QUOTE=Ray27Ray52;13846006]I mean you are really reaching for something to be upset about. He has an OBP of .426, which is 2nd in all of baseball. What more do you want from the guy? I mean honestly?[/QUOTE]

If not made clear already; I'd like him to start the game by getting on base. Something he's not good at doing.

(Beyond his most recent 10-day slump. AB's today have been awful; only Sox player out of 9 not to get on this inning).


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