[QUOTE=patchgenie;19872304]did wemby wear the patch?[/QUOTE]

Nope, not even that! Not associated with player game or event

Recent history has taught us that odds favor a first year sell high proposition vs. the exposed risk of a sophomore slump.

And sophomore slump can come in many loose forms. An opening week loss or even a 3-2 start can pull prices back dramatically. JD's set such a high mark for himself that anything short of a top 3 MVP and/or Superbowl appearance would spell a sharp pullback in his market.

Not to mention the new crop of QB talent that will inevitably gobble up a huge segment of hobby funds.

I personally love his game, but unless I'm holding one of his indispensable grails, I'm selling on the preseason jump and buying back a year or two from now at a great discount.

[QUOTE=ninjacookies;19872489]Recent history has taught us that odds favor a first year sell high proposition vs. the exposed risk of a sophomore slump...[/QUOTE]Cam'ron knows what up. ^^^

This is the way.

Whether you like Daniels and the Wash team, he has almost nowhere to go but down. Like I said, defenses adjust.... commanders are in a tough group and not that good (although Daniels himself is pretty solid). Either way, the bar is too high; card values already have future success/achievement built in.

[QUOTE=slyguy;19872537]Cam'ron knows what up. ^^^

This is the way.

Whether you like Daniels and the Wash team, he has almost nowhere to go but down. Like I said, defenses adjust.... commanders are in a tough group and not that good (although Daniels himself is pretty solid). Either way, the bar is too high; card values already have future success/achievement built in.[/QUOTE]

Eagles still the class of the NFCN, by a wide margin.

Like you said, his second year premiums already come with the baked in expectations of championship and/or MVP. There will most likely be some regression in his game just like Shroud/Purdy. I really do enjoy watching him though.

[QUOTE=slyguy;19872447]There will be a whole lot of LICENSED autos for those same players soon.

The unlicensed stuff is garbage.
It does have a bit of value for the moment as the licensed stuff is not here yet (for those certain 2024 rooks).

Nobody wants Caleb auto with him playing on "blue team" once you can have Caleb auto Chicago Bears. There is no mystery there.[/QUOTE]

I’m speaking strictly about unlicensed RC autos.

I personally feel like unlicensed cards will have a place in the future once the dust of the license transition settles- especially since we’re talking about a brand like Topps handling these releases.

Now maybe most collectors would prefer a Color Blast or Downtown but the Topps release are seriously being overlooked for the wrong reasons.

I feel like once a player reaches a hobby stratosphere, collectors will scramble and overlook some of these issues (sticker auto, unlicensed, non game worn etc) —- I mean there was a time when event worn patches are a joke but that’s no longer the case now with all these absurd sales of non game worn patch auto’s.

I’m just saying there will be a market for these, because for those autograph aficionados, it you want a RC year based auto, what options do you have?


8x10 Panini Eminate?

[url=https://postimg.cc/pyVDmvPm][img]https://i.postimg.cc/h4TM34w1/IMG-1763.jpg[/img][/url]

That might be the best Jayden Daniels card I've seen, and it has nothing to do with it being a 1/1.

[QUOTE=Antman5;19872715]I’m speaking strictly about unlicensed RC autos.

I personally feel like unlicensed cards will have a place in the future once the dust of the license transition settles- especially since we’re talking about a brand like Topps handling these releases.

Now maybe most collectors would prefer a Color Blast or Downtown but the Topps release are seriously being overlooked for the wrong reasons.

I feel like once a player reaches a hobby stratosphere, collectors will scramble and overlook some of these issues (sticker auto, unlicensed, non game worn etc) —- I mean there was a time when event worn patches are a joke but that’s no longer the case now with all these absurd sales of non game worn patch auto’s.

I’m just saying there will be a market for these, because for those autograph aficionados, it you want a RC year based auto, what options do you have?


8x10 Panini Eminate?

[url=https://postimg.cc/pyVDmvPm][img]https://i.postimg.cc/h4TM34w1/IMG-1763.jpg[/img][/url][/QUOTE]

Beautiful card, licensed or not.

Beautiful card. I still believe that once Topps starts releasing fully licensed cards the fact that the 2024 cards lacked team logos will be less important to most collectors. Also, we are talking about Topps here, which is THE iconic sports card brand.

[QUOTE=slyguy;19872537]

Whether you like Daniels and the Wash team, he has almost nowhere to go but down. Like I said, defenses adjust.... commanders are in a tough group and not that good (although Daniels himself is pretty solid). Either way, the bar is too high; card values already have future success/achievement built in.[/QUOTE]

I completely disagree. There is no reason to believe Daniels has hit his ceiling. While there is likely to be some decrease in value when another QB becomes the next big deal, if Daniels is consistently a top 5 QB there should be long-term investment potential.

[QUOTE=Antman5;19872715]...for those [B]autograph[/B] aficionados, it you want a RC year based auto, what options do you have?...[/QUOTE]This is exactly where your thinking is wrong.

Autos are autos. (basically)

RC is >>> second year or later year cards (silver prizm, gold cards, holo, base, inserts, etc)... but that doesn't really apply to autos. The auto is its own value level.

But ya, the autos are valued similar regardless.
Brady and Mahomes and other big guy autos are high price regardless of year (or even in retirement). You won't sniff an auth auto of them under $X no matter what year/set.

And sure, a Mahomes RC auto /25 RC is more than an auto /25 later on, but the later is still high quite value. It's NOT night and day like a silver prizm RC versus silver prizm 4th year or whatever. The only thing that'd hurt them is being UNLICENSED (their college autos Leaf or Sage or whatever) or IP autos (a lot of fraud, scares buyers even if graded card).

So, you have a few major pitfalls in your thinking here:
-autos [I]aren't[/I] drastically boosted by being RC
-autos ARE downgraded severely by being unlicensed
-Jayden Daniels ain't Pat Mahomes II ... sell the hype :)

It's a sweet card ... lucky the breaker sent it. Plenty of those go "missing."
GLuck w sale.


[QUOTE=Natsfan32;19872854]Beautiful card. I still believe that once Topps starts releasing fully licensed cards the fact that the 2024 cards lacked team logos will be less important to most collectors. Also, we are talking about Topps here, which is THE iconic sports card brand.[/QUOTE]This is correct.

Licensed vs unlicensed is a huge thing to most buyers (rightly so).
If there are licensed available, those will be preferred.
[U]Right now[/U] the unlicensed Topps carries a bit of value as it's the only show (in auto town) for those few rookie players... but that changes soon. They'll have licensed autos soon.

The even bigger here risk is the player... love him or hate him, it's hard for top rooks to live up to the hype / prices they get pushed to. Injuries also obviously happen.
The people sitting on Kabooms and RC autos of TLaw or Dak or Justin Herbert or even Stroud are wishing they sold awhile ago. :(

[QUOTE=Natsfan32;19872858]I completely disagree. There is no reason to believe Daniels has hit his ceiling. While there is likely to be some decrease in value when another QB becomes the next big deal, if Daniels is consistently a top 5 QB there should be long-term investment potential.[/QUOTE]This could be said of every rook who won ROY that I said above.

Most fizzle out.

Daniels was in the NFC champ game. That won't happen ever year. Dallas wont' have a ton of injuries. TB won't fumble away the game. Detroit won't throw 5 picks.
So yeah, he's already hit (and smashed through) his ceiling. The prices expect that or more (more playoff wins and MVP contender in 2025).

The prices are highly inflated for same/better future results. Look up the 2022 Mahomes year where he won league MVP + SB MVP and prices went DOWN after it all (as they were so hyped going in). That's how cards work. Welcome to the game. :)

[QUOTE=Antman5;19872715]I’m speaking strictly about unlicensed RC autos.

I personally feel like unlicensed cards will have a place in the future once the dust of the license transition settles- especially since we’re talking about a brand like Topps handling these releases.

Now maybe most collectors would prefer a Color Blast or Downtown but the Topps release are seriously being overlooked for the wrong reasons.

I feel like once a player reaches a hobby stratosphere, collectors will scramble and overlook some of these issues (sticker auto, unlicensed, non game worn etc) —- I mean there was a time when event worn patches are a joke but that’s no longer the case now with all these absurd sales of non game worn patch auto’s.

I’m just saying there will be a market for these, because for those autograph aficionados, it you want a RC year based auto, what options do you have?


8x10 Panini Eminate?

[url=https://postimg.cc/pyVDmvPm][img]https://i.postimg.cc/h4TM34w1/IMG-1763.jpg[/img][/url][/QUOTE]

Licensed or not, that is a fantastic looking card

I feel like people want to push the Topps cards being junk this year/last year so their licensed cards they hold have more value.

There will always be a strong market for these cards IMO being they are the only autos of some of these players. The strongest market? No.

I mean Panini stuff still sells decently in baseball despite being unlicensed for years.

Now being said that, I would sell in July/August because I do feel Daniels will be worth more then than anytime else. I don't see him repeating that insane success, just look at Stroud.

Also, lol at Washington being the 3rd best team in their division when Dallas looks like a stinker.

[QUOTE=slyguy;19873225]This is exactly where your thinking is wrong.

Autos are autos. (basically)

RC is >>> second year or later year cards (silver prizm, gold cards, holo, base, inserts, etc)... but that doesn't really apply to autos. The auto is its own value level.

But ya, the autos are valued similar regardless.
Brady and Mahomes and other big guy autos are high price regardless of year (or even in retirement). You won't sniff an auth auto of them under $X no matter what year/set.

And sure, a Mahomes RC auto /25 RC is more than an auto /25 later on, but the later is still high quite value. It's NOT night and day like a silver prizm RC versus silver prizm 4th year or whatever. The only thing that'd hurt them is being UNLICENSED (their college autos Leaf or Sage or whatever) or IP autos (a lot of fraud, scares buyers even if graded card).

So, you have a few major pitfalls in your thinking here:
-autos [I]aren't[/I] drastically boosted by being RC
-autos ARE downgraded severely by being unlicensed
-Jayden Daniels ain't Pat Mahomes II ... sell the hype :)

It's a sweet card ... lucky the breaker sent it. Plenty of those go "missing."
GLuck w sale.


This is correct.

Licensed vs unlicensed is a huge thing to most buyers (rightly so).
If there are licensed available, those will be preferred.
[U]Right now[/U] the unlicensed Topps carries a bit of value as it's the only show (in auto town) for those few rookie players... but that changes soon. They'll have licensed autos soon.

The even bigger here risk is the player... love him or hate him, it's hard for top rooks to live up to the hype / prices they get pushed to. Injuries also obviously happen.
The people sitting on Kabooms and RC autos of TLaw or Dak or Justin Herbert or even Stroud are wishing they sold awhile ago. :(

This could be said of every rook who won ROY that I said above.

Most fizzle out.

Daniels was in the NFC champ game. That won't happen ever year. Dallas wont' have a ton of injuries. TB won't fumble away the game. Detroit won't throw 5 picks.
So yeah, he's already hit (and smashed through) his ceiling. The prices expect that or more (more playoff wins and MVP contender in 2025).

The prices are highly inflated for same/better future results. Look up the 2022 Mahomes year where he won league MVP + SB MVP and prices went DOWN after it all (as they were so hyped going in). That's how cards work. Welcome to the game. :)[/QUOTE]

Autos are not autos. That’s why literally every rc auto has a premium. Seriously bro..:stop thinking you know better than everyone on here.

[QUOTE=Ninotores;19873594]Autos are not autos. That’s why literally every rc auto has a premium. ...[/QUOTE]You have clearly convinced yourself, and that's all that matters.
If you look hard enough, you always find the conclusion you want.
I could convince myself my 2017 sealed wax should all be opened, or I could stand pat.

Again: autos do not have the 5x, 10x, 100x, etc multiplier for being a RC.
Look at any player of consequence (Mahomes, Brady, whoever).
Part of it is they sign less and less as they become stars, part is autos are autos.
Their rookie autos are worth more than later years autos (unless later years are very nice inserts), but the later years - even retirement cards auto - are still all highly valued.
It's not like base cards, inserts, #'d where the RCs are high and later ones only a tiny % of that.

But you've convinced yourself to hold your card, so have fun with that.
You asked for advice, and ppl responded: sell the hype unless you truly believe in the player AND it's a rare/awesome card.
Your biggest problem is that it's Jayden Daniels (nearly impossible to match the hype).
Another issue will become that [U][B]it's an unlicensed cartoon auto[/B][/U] (more glaring an issue once more and more licensed photo autos for him are released).
That's likely to overshadow the fact that it's RC year, but wait and see. You do you.

[QUOTE=Delta5;19872071]There's a decent following for his unlicensed autos because it's the shiny new thing. Look at stroud unlicensed junk. I'd stay away from his unlicenced card and rather buy his prizm if you're into him[/QUOTE]

Unfortunately, he's Topps exclusive so that's the only way anyone's getting a rookie auto from him unless he does an event, and even then, no clue if he can sign non-topps cards or not.

[QUOTE=slyguy;19873635]You have clearly convinced yourself, and that's all that matters.
If you look hard enough, you always find the conclusion you want.
I could convince myself my 2017 sealed wax should all be opened, or I could stand pat.

Again: autos do not have the 5x, 10x, 100x, etc multiplier for being a RC.
Look at any player of consequence (Mahomes, Brady, whoever).
Part of it is they sign less and less as they become stars, part is autos are autos.
Their rookie autos are worth more than later years autos (unless later years are very nice inserts), but the later years - even retirement cards auto - are still all highly valued.
It's not like base cards, inserts, #'d where the RCs are high and later ones only a tiny % of that.

But you've convinced yourself to hold your card, so have fun with that.
You asked for advice, and ppl responded: sell the hype unless you truly believe in the player AND it's a rare/awesome card.
Your biggest problem is that it's Jayden Daniels (nearly impossible to match the hype).
Another issue will become that [U][B]it's an unlicensed cartoon auto[/B][/U] (more glaring an issue once more and more licensed photo autos for him are released).
That's likely to overshadow the fact that it's RC year, but wait and see. You do you.[/QUOTE]

I think you're seeing modern cards with autos of junk wax era goats going for higher prices than their signed rookies and conflating the two. That said, with a jillion parallels with differing rarities, I just can't wrap my head around the idea that a rookie auto would not have a premium over a 2nd or 5th or 10th year auto.

I absolutely agree with you on selling the hype if he thinks he's a one and done success, but I'm also not a commie fan and have no clue if he's going to have continued success. I kind of view every card like a call option, in that it's either going several multiples higher than what I paid, or to 0. That said, I also collect for PC purposes, not to flip so every single I buy isn't for sale.

I'd say if op's just another shoe/crypto/ticket flipper, or trying to be, he probably should've dumped it the second he hit it. If he's a fan and doesn't need the money, IDK why it's a question.

Personally, if I have to pick a non-licensed rookie year Topps Chrome auto or a licensed 2nd year Topps Chrome auto, i would like to have the rookie year auto. Just personal preference.

Edit.

Not worth it.

[QUOTE=GrailChase;19873963]

I'd say if op's just another shoe/crypto/ticket flipper, or trying to be, he probably should've dumped it the second he hit it. If he's a fan and doesn't need the money, IDK why it's a question.[/QUOTE]

Neither. I usually keep any decent hits. But I’m not a big Daniels guy and just asked a question. I thought that was part of the purpose of a forum.

[img]https://i.ibb.co/V0Wq9dD7/IMG-8883.jpg[/img]

Pulled this in a Topps now this offseason and decided to hold for now. I think you should hold yours too.

[QUOTE=gwgecko;19888964][img]https://i.ibb.co/V0Wq9dD7/IMG-8883.jpg[/img]

Pulled this in a Topps now this offseason and decided to hold for now. I think you should hold yours too.[/QUOTE]

You should never hold on to IOUs. Those are worthless pieces of paper. Sell that thing as quickly as possible.

[QUOTE=majestik101;19889030]You should never hold on to IOUs. Those are worthless pieces of paper. Sell that thing as quickly as possible.[/QUOTE][IMG]https://media0.giphy.com/media/xUOxeTfYc1kShoCJLW/giphy.gif?cid=6c09b952ajhm7hcrx7l37zqfdj19ojzsm84nw6a9hmfm8kb8&ep=v1_internal_gif_by_id&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g[/IMG]

[QUOTE=majestik101;19889030]You should never hold on to IOUs. Those are worthless pieces of paper. Sell that thing as quickly as possible.[/QUOTE]

I redeemed it, I meant hold as in not selling it until further notice

[QUOTE=gwgecko;19889065]I redeemed it, I meant hold as in not selling it until further notice[/QUOTE]Sell preseason, man.

There is no way Daniels can meet the hype. This is common sense. It's the (correct) advice in all of these threads.

(see also: TLaw, Herbie, CJ Stroud, any other recent quarterback ROY)
Even Burrow's prices (OPOY win and SB appear) are lower than when he was a rook.

Use your head. You can always get the cards back cheaper in a few years if you want... unless Daniels wins a couple MVP and SBs, which he absolutely will not. He's much more likely to underperform and/or get hurt. The bar that's been set for him is far too high for anyone not named Pat Mahomes. Turn the card into cash.

[QUOTE=slyguy;19889072]Sell preseason, man.

There is no way Daniels can meet the hype. This is common sense. It's the (correct) advice in all of these threads.

(see also: TLaw, Herbie, CJ Stroud, any other recent quarterback ROY)
Even Burrow's prices (OPOY win and SB appear) are lower than when he was a rook.

Use your head. You can always get the cards back cheaper in a few years if you want... unless Daniels wins a couple MVP and SBs, which he absolutely will not. He's much more likely to underperform and/or get hurt. The bar that's been set for him is far too high for anyone not named Pat Mahomes. Turn the card into cash.[/QUOTE]

I might sell in August if a decent enough offer is there