Some really good points itt:
1) Nobody would want Mosiac if people weren't hoarding it and relisting for higher prices
2) With the advent of the 'net, group breakers were always gonna get big. Capitalism.
3) The distributors are a cartel and are primarily to blame

90% of LHS had closed from the boom days long before the recent madness.

I call them cartel because the meaning fits them perfectly.

Cartel
[kärˈtel]

NOUN
an association of manufacturers or suppliers with the purpose of maintaining prices at a high level and restricting competition.
"the Colombian drug cartels"

[QUOTE=gomiamigo;15924303]Some really good points itt:
1) Nobody would want Mosiac if people weren't hoarding it and relisting for higher prices
[/QUOTE]

You have it backwards, people are hoarding and relisting Mosaic because people want it. People aren't paying $200 for Megas because of FOMO, they are doing so because they want the product (Or want to break the product).

The less they give to the LCS the more they can control the prices and keep them higher.

And for the LCS - selling to the breakers makes sense - why keep Prizm/Optic on the shelves if I can flip it to the breakers - I can sell all of it in one swoop and hold on to product that sits much better - Hoops, Revolution, Donruss. If I'm a LCS of course I'm taking profit - you're stupid not to. Take your tiny allocation or single case - sell it for going market rate and invest it in Hoops/Revolution/Donruss that you know appeals to a much larger audience and can sit and be relatively stable. You know it won't go up dramatically (outside of this year) and it is much easier to replace.

Everyone here is witnessing and discussing the same things that happened in the 80's and 90's. Most of these cards that people are buying at inflated numbers are new to the hobby and chasing a new fad. It's not sustainable. The peak is National Treasures basketball this year. When 95% of the gamblers on NT lose thousands of dollars, it will change things. Less demand for breaks, less demand for product, etc. The downside of capitalism, it works both ways, and this is the top.

[QUOTE=ricefan77;15924533]Everyone here is witnessing and discussing the same things that happened in the 80's and 90's. Most of these cards that people are buying at inflated numbers are new to the hobby and chasing a new fad. It's not sustainable. The peak is National Treasures basketball this year. When 95% of the gamblers on NT lose thousands of dollars, it will change things. Less demand for breaks, less demand for product, etc. The downside of capitalism, it works both ways, and this is the top.[/QUOTE]

We're way beyond the junk wax era prices lol. I got out when packs started going for around $5 each. It's a little different now though with false scarcity. Panini has done a good job of making that happen. Serial numbered cards, but make 49 different parallels. Tough to say what will happen. I'm thinking nothing very soon unless Panini floods the market and kicks up production for everything by 5-10x.

[QUOTE=RogerGodahell;15924585] unless Panini floods the market and kicks up production for everything by 5-10x.[/QUOTE]

I'm not sure they even have the ability to do this.

It's not the 80s/90s where the companies had printing presses. Topps/Panini 3rd party their printing endeavors now.

[QUOTE=RogerGodahell;15924355]The less they give to the LCS the more they can control the prices and keep them higher.[/QUOTE]

How are you going to act like LCS don't raise prices the same or even more?

You're just trading one price gouger for another.

LCS aren't saviors, they get their pound of flesh too.

[QUOTE=tier1dc;15924668]How are you going to act like LCS don't raise prices the same or even more?

You're just trading one price gouger for another.

LCS aren't saviors, they get their pound of flesh too.[/QUOTE]

LCS / Breakers sell based on what they buy for. Yes they get their "pound of flesh", but it's the same 10-20% they were getting when boxes were around SRP. The distributors jack the prices up to them, and they have no choice but to pass that expense along to the customer.

[QUOTE=tier1dc;15924668]How are you going to act like LCS don't raise prices the same or even more?

You're just trading one price gouger for another.

LCS aren't saviors, they get their pound of flesh too.[/QUOTE]

Oh I know they do. They want it for the good old day prices like we all do. Some are probably able to get some but they obviously aren't getting much. My point was the distributors don't want to give much to the LCS when they can sell it to the breakers for X amount more. Capitalism with a side of monopoly. Distributors have a stranglehold on the supply chain.

That whole blowout investment thing was weird also. I have my suspicions they're in on a lot of what is going on with price increases as well. They are basically the market setter for online wax. Everyone waits for them to put their price online before they do. I've watched this happen for countless products over the past couple years. You wouldn't know it unless you followed it closely. And I have because that's pretty much all I collect now is sealed wax. So whatever blowout initially puts out there for a price that's pretty much the starting point across the board for all wax from that point on. I have to wonder how much they're allotted?

Agreed.

The companies completely adjusted their models to take care of the breaker. Brokers had to adjust to remain relevant. They'll get squeezed out eventually though: Topps and Panini will eventually go straight to breaker 100% and there won't be a need for a middle man.

That's it. That's all you need to know about the state of our hobby.

Want to be a hobby shop? You have to have a breaker element going forward. This is a cash flow business at these prices.

It's not going to end today. But soon, you won't be able to just have inventory and expect parent and child to walk in and fund your operation. Wish you could. That's the hobby I love. (And this is already happening. Dealernet users know this.)

People who suffered mostly were us old heads (along with our kids and peers) who were used to buying boxes and cases and who enjoyed sorting and all the other tactility and various elements of collecting.

Anymore it's just stare at your phone watching someone else open cards you'll get 1/30th of eventually. That's if you don't sell your best stuff for more credit at their slot machine.

Feed the beast!

While I agree distributors/panini are getting greedy, this market is driven by the consumer. No one is forced to pay high prices for wax. Cards are a luxury and consumers are agreeing to pay these high prices. It’s funny though, people were complaining a lot less when they were able to get fotl at mrsp, buy excess retail at mrsp or buy from their LCS’s at MRSP and flip with relative ease. Now that panini and distributors have tried to take away that opportunity people complain more

[QUOTE=codered;15926000]While I agree distributors/panini are getting greedy, this market is driven by the consumer. No one is forced to pay high prices for wax. Cards are a luxury and consumers are agreeing to pay these high prices. It’s funny though, people were complaining a lot less when they were able to get fotl at mrsp, buy excess retail at mrsp or buy from their LCS’s at MRSP and flip with relative ease. Now that panini and distributors have tried to take away that opportunity people complain more[/QUOTE]

Of course, there's always 2 sides to a story. Not only are wax prices ridiculous but singles prices are as well. And I know pretty much everyone who collects cards has some that are much more valuable now because of it. I don't hear anyone complaining about the value of their cards increasing though when it's time to sell them.

[QUOTE=RogerGodahell;15926059]Of course, there's always 2 sides to a story. Not only are wax prices ridiculous but singles prices are as well. And I know pretty much everyone who collects cards has some that are much more valuable now because of it. I don't hear anyone complaining about the value of their cards increasing though when it's time to sell them.[/QUOTE]

Are the prices really ridiculous though?

The Lebron base Prizm/Optic stuff. Sure those prices are nutty, but is there really anything to complain about?

Unless you’ve been priced out of singles from this season, pretty much everything has been available (and undervalued) for years. It’s not like the opportunity to pick up these cards hasn’t been there for years. If you’re complaining because you’re now priced out of the nicest cards, realize you could have had most any of them for pennies on the dollar even up to 6 months ago. The problem is most didn’t actually want these cards when they weren’t able to flip them, but now are suffering major POMO.

Instead of trying to nickel and dime every single on the market, why not just buy it? I can’t tell you how many times I’ve seen people on this board laugh at a members prices, or try to buy at a discount (usually less than $10) and now those same guys are pissed because they could have been making money. The supply is there and the prices for years have been more than fair.

If you were priced out of the higher-end stuff before, you’re still priced out. The vast majority of cards can still be bought for less than $10 delivered on eBay. But nobody wants THOSE cards, they just want to complain because they can’t buy a Lebron rookie at the same price as 6 months ago, when they weren’t buying at that price in the first place.

Guys who like to bust wax, I feel for you. They’re the only ones who have truly been priced out.

[QUOTE=GeechQuest;15926168]Are the prices really ridiculous though?

The Lebron base Prizm/Optic stuff. Sure those prices are nutty, but is there really anything to complain about?

Unless you’ve been priced out of singles from this season, pretty much everything has been available (and undervalued) for years. It’s not like the opportunity to pick up these cards hasn’t been there for years. If you’re complaining because you’re now priced out of the nicest cards, realize you could have had most any of them for pennies on the dollar even up to 6 months ago. The problem is most didn’t actually want these cards when they weren’t able to flip them, but now are suffering major POMO.

[B]Instead of trying to nickel and dime every single on the market, why not just buy it? I can’t tell you how many times I’ve seen people on this board laugh at a members prices, or try to buy at a discount (usually less than $10) and now those same guys are pissed because they could have been making money. The supply is there and the prices for years have been more than fair.[/B]

If you were priced out of the higher-end stuff before, you’re still priced out. The vast majority of cards can still be bought for less than $10 delivered on eBay. But nobody wants THOSE cards, they just want to complain because they can’t buy a Lebron rookie at the same price as 6 months ago, when they weren’t buying at that price in the first place.

Guys who like to bust wax, I feel for you. They’re the only ones who have truly been priced out.[/QUOTE]

This X1000!!!! Such a great point

Most people don’t want to admit that, they just want to complain! I know I kick myself because of the times I wouldn’t spend the extra buck or two on a card a wanted. Case in point, I was looking to buy a Mahomes optic holo rookie during the 2018 preseason. His prices were so low compared to today. I passed on multiple offers of $20 on comc but kept passing believing I would get one cheaper. I never did. Never ended buying one as I kind of forgot about it. Boy I wish I wasn’t being cheap! There was so many opportunities missed! No ones fault but my own!!

[QUOTE=Spacemanspif;15924253]technically the group breakers cater to the "end collectors" too, their customers are receiving singles same as you or me, just at really high prices. They basically act like an LCS, just much more efficiently (can sell at much higher volumes and prices). The issue is still the distributors, because they are the ones jacking up the prices to the LCS or breakers, who then just pass the price increase on to the customers (after their 10-20% markup of course)[/QUOTE]

Distributors are not jacking up the prices to the local card shop in my area, they get great prices, but just don't get any product. You can say all you want that its the distributors jacking up the prices, but ill still have my opinion that it is not them.

[QUOTE=GeechQuest;15926168]Are the prices really ridiculous though?

The Lebron base Prizm/Optic stuff. Sure those prices are nutty, but is there really anything to complain about?

Unless you’ve been priced out of singles from this season, pretty much everything has been available (and undervalued) for years. It’s not like the opportunity to pick up these cards hasn’t been there for years. If you’re complaining because you’re now priced out of the nicest cards, realize you could have had most any of them for pennies on the dollar even up to 6 months ago. The problem is most didn’t actually want these cards when they weren’t able to flip them, but now are suffering major POMO.

Instead of trying to nickel and dime every single on the market, why not just buy it? I can’t tell you how many times I’ve seen people on this board laugh at a members prices, or try to buy at a discount (usually less than $10) and now those same guys are pissed because they could have been making money. The supply is there and the prices for years have been more than fair.

If you were priced out of the higher-end stuff before, you’re still priced out. The vast majority of cards can still be bought for less than $10 delivered on eBay. But nobody wants THOSE cards, they just want to complain because they can’t buy a Lebron rookie at the same price as 6 months ago, when they weren’t buying at that price in the first place.

Guys who like to bust wax, I feel for you. They’re the only ones who have truly been priced out.[/QUOTE]

The base card boom is kind of silly for modern cards imo. Good thing I've got 22 Tatum Prizm's that are selling between $100-200 each. I don't really have any plans on selling them, but wow never would have imagined that.

[QUOTE=codered;15926000]While I agree distributors/panini are getting greedy, this market is driven by the consumer. No one is forced to pay high prices for wax. Cards are a luxury and consumers are agreeing to pay these high prices. It’s funny though, people were complaining a lot less when they were able to get fotl at mrsp, buy excess retail at mrsp or buy from their LCS’s at MRSP and flip with relative ease. Now that panini and distributors have tried to take away that opportunity people complain more[/QUOTE]

Not everyone was buying to flip. Some people do buy to rip. You can see results in the mosaic thread and box break section.

I enjoyed busting some Prizm FB and BKB at MSRP. By some I mean a couple hundred dollars. Not thousands. Havent been able to find much mosaic So im not buying at ebay or current BO prices.

[QUOTE=DJP73;15922095]Problem with that is you cant get direct accounts anymore, LCS's are having hard time also getting product.[/QUOTE]
This, my guy has direct and he's getting cut all the time to where he can't do anything for me any longer.

[QUOTE=kobemagee29;15926788]Distributors are not jacking up the prices to the local card shop in my area, they get great prices, but just don't get any product. You can say all you want that its the distributors jacking up the prices, but ill still have my opinion that it is not them.[/QUOTE]


What you said makes no sense. “They get great prices, just don’t get any product” is like saying I stare at the $19.99 tag on the Target website all day, and even though I never get to buy any, the price “I buy at” is so much better than what all the n00bs pay.

I used to be in contact with my LCS for every release and he told me how much he was getting charged. There was no real incentive for him to do so, as I never ended up buying off him, but we both liked just chopping it up for a few minutes.

Anyway, my “evidence” of these distributor prices being real is the fact that I just sold a case of Prizm to a breaker at basically 10% under market value if I had sold all the boxes on eBay (cash to me was probably higher after accounting for shipping & fees). If these guys are BSing about the distributors selling to them at such high prices, why would he drop that much cash on me?


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I bought a my card shop in 2013, Its been in business since 1991. I struggle to get products from many distributors. I know ive been lied to about products and allocations from several distributors. Larger online stores and breakers seem to get all the product. Its been a lot worse in the last 3 years. I spend a lot of time telling customers I cant get them a product they want. Yet they can go online and watch platinum on case #100 in a weekend. I can complain all I want, but Its life. Unless the companies who make the products care it will never change. I have many ideas that would possibly help shops, but nobody seems to care at Topps or Panini. I love the hobby so I find other way to make money with it doing more with buying collections and turning stuff over, I cant rely on wax as the main part of my store anymore.....

[QUOTE=GeechQuest;15926168]Are the prices really ridiculous though?

The Lebron base Prizm/Optic stuff. Sure those prices are nutty, but is there really anything to complain about?

Unless you’ve been priced out of singles from this season, pretty much everything has been available (and undervalued) for years. It’s not like the opportunity to pick up these cards hasn’t been there for years. If you’re complaining because you’re now priced out of the nicest cards, realize you could have had most any of them for pennies on the dollar even up to 6 months ago. The problem is most didn’t actually want these cards when they weren’t able to flip them, but now are suffering major POMO.

Instead of trying to nickel and dime every single on the market, why not just buy it? I can’t tell you how many times I’ve seen people on this board laugh at a members prices, or try to buy at a discount (usually less than $10) and now those same guys are pissed because they could have been making money. The supply is there and the prices for years have been more than fair.

If you were priced out of the higher-end stuff before, you’re still priced out. The vast majority of cards can still be bought for less than $10 delivered on eBay. But nobody wants THOSE cards, they just want to complain because they can’t buy a Lebron rookie at the same price as 6 months ago, when they weren’t buying at that price in the first place.

Guys who like to bust wax, I feel for you. They’re the only ones who have truly been priced out.[/QUOTE]

Good point. Late last year I was still able to get 18-19 optic sitting on target shelves and buy them cheaply Online. No one wanted them when the prices were not going up. In terms of supply there is plenty of supply at 60 bucks a pop for new stuff like mosaic Blaster on eBay. That’s Much higher than msrp but still affordable. The frustration is coming from feeling of missing out when the prices are going up and not being able to take advantage of it and gain value.

But Overall it’s a very exciting time right now if you have been collecting for many years. Refractors or prizms people put away and forgotten are now jumping in value and $$$ value is One of the crucial element of the hobby whether you are selling or just holding on for that warm satisfying feeling of having something valuable. Without value you are just holding a Picture you can easily cut out from slam Magazine and right now value is through the roof. It’s a good time to be into cards.

[QUOTE=jeff152380;15927424]I bought a my card shop in 2013, Its been in business since 1991. I struggle to get products from many distributors. I know ive been lied to about products and allocations from several distributors. Larger online stores and breakers seem to get all the product. Its been a lot worse in the last 3 years. I spend a lot of time telling customers I cant get them a product they want. Yet they can go online and watch platinum on case #100 in a weekend. I can complain all I want, but Its life. Unless the companies who make the products care it will never change. I have many ideas that would possibly help shops, but nobody seems to care at Topps or Panini. I love the hobby so I find other way to make money with it doing more with buying collections and turning stuff over, I cant rely on wax as the main part of my store anymore.....[/QUOTE]

The breakers aren’t being allocated those 100 cases though, and even if they were (again, they’re not) 100 in an NT print run is less than 3%.

The breakers are just willing to spent the “retail“ price on the case whereas the individual isn’t willing to and as such the the LCS isn’t willing to either.

The distributors are probably unloading 10-15% of the print run in the first wave. Then they tell EVERYBODY (including the breakers) there are no cases left and they’ll need to find some. They always magically find some, but now they’re going to sell them at retail. The LCS is offered, but they pass. The breakers don’t pass.

They’re not cutting allocations and shipping those allocations to the breakers. The breakers are being cut on allocations as well (though it may be 100 cases down to 10 where the LCS is getting cut 2 cases down to 2 boxes), but after the cuts anybody can buy at retail.