Soccer wax is cheap this year so not sure what the complaint is. Other sports are $1500+ a box.

At my LCS people open wax all day and most never sell any cards and they are fine with it and probably have worse jobs than you.

You don't like losing money and want value which is fine but most sets don't have that anymore.

Why? No collectors.

Open Series 1/2 hockey on release day and throw it on ebay you'll see what collectors do. Buy paper base rookies for $300+ and buy every imaginable overprinted insert too.

I don't open 99% of wax either and stopped doing breaks a few years ago.

Can buy gold /10 for the price of the break spot or price of the box so what's the point right?

Price of box $500
Price of gold /10 top star players. $200-$300

Great market for collectors.
Can buy 99.9% of players of any card for less than $500.

Neymar gold /10 /5 autos for $300-$500.

Mosaic mega costs $100 here.
Can buy harry kane gold /10 from that set for $150.

The chance of me getting that card is 1 in 50000.

Before the boom, bum player golds were $100.
We're talking non-top 5 league 30 year olds.

I don't think the problem is overproduction, it's lack of any good rookies this year and grading costs.

I've invested in Jonathan David and that is about it.

You can't affordably grade base cards of established stars anymore and that is the core issue. This would be Haaland, Mbappe, Ronaldo and Messi. People hate the grading of base cards and the backlog it created but I think it's essential to the markets. Period. If I can grade a Ronaldo or Messi base card for $10-12 and resell it for $30 in a PSA 10 that is more money I can put back into the card market for product or singles I want and everyone benefits. If I get a PSA 9 the worst case is I probably get my grading fees back. At $22 the current bulk price I probably lose money if I get a PSA 9 so it's too risky.

I've said all this before but this is the problem in the hobby and why it's hurting. Instead of everyone winning it's a few companies at the top trying to grab all the profits and they don't get that in the end they will end up hurting themselves because once the money is spent it can't be recycled back to them for another purchase.

[QUOTE=k13;18414283]Why should collectors need to make profit?
They are collectors not flippers.

Wax was always about losing money that was known for decades.

The business is made for companies to make money not people on the secondary market.

The reason wax has no value is because there's no collectors and there's so little demand for singles.

Idiots have always wanted to crack boxes and sell, no one was actually really interested in keeping the cards.

99% sellers 1% buyers.[/QUOTE]

Most people loose money on wax because they are breaking boxes or a single case. I make a living selling soccer cards and yes even the way i do it it is still hit or miss. The way I can make a profit is #1 look for the best deals on release day open a minimum of 2 cases of that product. Then I have the stock Photos in my data base. Then on Black Friday I go ballistic on cases that are below wholesale pricing. & get them on eBay in my inventory.
Now I may not make a killing but "I am chasing the big hit" when u open 5-30 cases of a product you are going to end up hitting something big. My profit only comes in sometimes through my discounts between 3% to 5% and my credit cards cash back bonus of 1% to 3% I pay off the credit cards before my 30 day deadline expires.

[QUOTE=Ianhatcher;18414469]I don't think the problem is overproduction, it's lack of any good rookies this year and grading costs.

I've invested in Jonathan David and that is about it.

You can't affordably grade base cards of established stars anymore and that is the core issue. This would be Haaland, Mbappe, Ronaldo and Messi. People hate the grading of base cards and the backlog it created but I think it's essential to the markets. Period. If I can grade a Ronaldo or Messi base card for $10-12 and resell it for $30 in a PSA 10 that is more money I can put back into the card market for product or singles I want and everyone benefits. If I get a PSA 9 the worst case is I probably get my grading fees back. At $22 the current bulk price I probably lose money if I get a PSA 9 so it's too risky.

I've said all this before but this is the problem in the hobby and why it's hurting. Instead of everyone winning it's a few companies at the top trying to grab all the profits and they don't get that in the end they will end up hurting themselves because once the money is spent it can't be recycled back to them for another purchase.[/QUOTE]

I get your point but I'm on the other side of the argument on this one.

It shouldn't be profitable to grade base cards of stars, no matter who they are. The only way people should make money out of them is if they are PSA 10s. Not even BGS Gem Mints. I would even extend it to base rookies although I would expand it to BGS 9.5s (exceptions could be Nobility or Obsidian).

The problem is most people grading and flipping won't put the money back into the hobby IMO. It's people buying those cards who are the hobby. I'm excited for bulk to come back at those prices because now it can be profitable to grade high numbered cards and even some refractors, and I think those keep more money in the hobby that graded base cards.

Having to buy 30 cases to maybe make some profit is pretty risky!

[QUOTE=yiguiri2002;18414688]I get your point but I'm on the other side of the argument on this one.

It shouldn't be profitable to grade base cards of stars, no matter who they are. The only way people should make money out of them is if they are PSA 10s. Not even BGS Gem Mints. I would even extend it to base rookies although I would expand it to BGS 9.5s (exceptions could be Nobility or Obsidian).

The problem is most people grading and flipping won't put the money back into the hobby IMO. It's people buying those cards who are the hobby. I'm excited for bulk to come back at those prices because now it can be profitable to grade high numbered cards and even some refractors, and I think those keep more money in the hobby that graded base cards.[/QUOTE]

Why? Why shouldn't it be profitable?

Just because you think it shouldn't doesn't make it so. It has been very profitable in the past and can be again but its's all dependent on the grading costs. I made tens of thousands of dollars grading base cards of 2019-20 Sapphire, 2017-18 Chrome, 2017 Select and other releases pre-2021 of Messi, Ronaldo, Mbappe, Kane, Son, Virgil, Salah, Lewandowski, De Bruyne, Felix, Pulisic to name a few. They still sell quite well today.

Most of those cards of stars like that will sell for $25-30 in a PSA 9 and $70-100 in a PSA 10. The risk is the grade and the cost of the grading will effect that. If I am paying $22 to grade any of that and I get a PSA 9 after Ebay fees I am probably losing money. At $10-12 a card I am probably going to make money even with a PSA 9. That's were grading fees matter.

People like to collect base cards of stars slabbed. Not all the money in the hobby is in high end but I love that people are fixated on that. Do I care if I sell 10 cards for $100 each or one card for $1000? No, I do not.

It's still $1000 I'm getting to put back into the market instead of letting the cards just sit in a box somewhere and I refuse to sell many raw cards and deal with that nightmare so it's grading or nothing for me.

I think saying that cheap grading is the solution to increases in volume is short-sighted at best.

Demand is demand. Supply is supply. Short term there are hype related cycles that make things behave irrationally (perceived rarity, first to market stuff, etc…) but eventually that evens out.

Messi chrome from 2 years ago are $30 per in PSA 10. There were 9000 base cards made and only 300 in PSA 10 with 350 graded. You can buy a base card for $5 raw on comc. If those were all of a sudden profitable to grade (either big price increase in the value or decrease in the cost) some portion of the population would pull out the other 8,500 and send them in.

Now we have 5x that in 2021-22 chrome alone. And probably 20x+ that across all products. Sure, 2020 showed us that the World Cup Prizm messi could go bonkers but eventually people sent a ton in and back to equilibrium we probably got (based on acquisition price of enough raw material to get the PSA 10).

So if grading prices fall, more people grade. More supply to meet demand. Prices fall. And there is plenty of stuff sitting in boxes.

I don't even want to grade stars/legends numbered cards from 2014 prizm at $22 let alone some junk base from new sets of mbappe/messi/whoever.

2016 Euro Silvers populations of top players are non-existent and still barely worth grading.

There's not even 50 people in the whole world who want a Harry Kane first silver Euro prizm. Really amazing.

99.9% of cards should not be graded anyway. Grading is actually what ruined the "hobby". No one was grading soccer before and cards were selling no problem.

[QUOTE=Ianhatcher;18414754]Why? Why shouldn't it be profitable?

Just because you think it shouldn't doesn't make it so. It has been very profitable in the past and can be again but its's all dependent on the grading costs. I made tens of thousands of dollars grading base cards of 2019-20 Sapphire, 2017-18 Chrome, 2017 Select and other releases pre-2021 of Messi, Ronaldo, Mbappe, Kane, Son, Virgil, Salah, Lewandowski, De Bruyne, Felix, Pulisic to name a few. They still sell quite well today.

Most of those cards of stars like that will sell for $25-30 in a PSA 9 and $70-100 in a PSA 10. The risk is the grade and the cost of the grading will effect that. If I am paying $22 to grade any of that and I get a PSA 9 after Ebay fees I am probably losing money. At $10-12 a card I am probably going to make money even with a PSA 9. That's were grading fees matter.

People like to collect base cards of stars slabbed. Not all the money in the hobby is in high end but I love that people are fixated on that. Do I care if I sell 10 cards for $100 each or one card for $1000? No, I do not.

It's still $1000 I'm getting to put back into the market instead of letting the cards just sit in a box somewhere and I refuse to sell many raw cards and deal with that nightmare so it's grading or nothing for me.[/QUOTE]

Read dragon's and (gulp) 13's response below yours. That's why.

I'm fine with someone risking it to go for a PSA 10. But if a PSA 9 becomes profitable again, forget about it. Junk slabs all around - again. Messi is huge but can he stand having 10k PSA 9s at 30 bucks?

Like I said, most of the people grading and flipping won't put it back into the hobby. There's only a few of us who flip to get more wax/cards.

[QUOTE=Ianhatcher;18414754]Why? Why shouldn't it be profitable?

Just because you think it shouldn't doesn't make it so. It has been very profitable in the past and can be again but its's all dependent on the grading costs. I made tens of thousands of dollars grading base cards of 2019-20 Sapphire, 2017-18 Chrome, 2017 Select and other releases pre-2021 of Messi, Ronaldo, Mbappe, Kane, Son, Virgil, Salah, Lewandowski, De Bruyne, Felix, Pulisic to name a few. They still sell quite well today.

Most of those cards of stars like that will sell for $25-30 in a PSA 9 and $70-100 in a PSA 10. The risk is the grade and the cost of the grading will effect that. If I am paying $22 to grade any of that and I get a PSA 9 after Ebay fees I am probably losing money. At $10-12 a card I am probably going to make money even with a PSA 9. That's were grading fees matter.

People like to collect base cards of stars slabbed. Not all the money in the hobby is in high end but I love that people are fixated on that. Do I care if I sell 10 cards for $100 each or one card for $1000? No, I do not.

It's still $1000 I'm getting to put back into the market instead of letting the cards just sit in a box somewhere and I refuse to sell many raw cards and deal with that nightmare so it's grading or nothing for me.[/QUOTE]

No one is buying a pop 1000 psa 9 Haaland for $12 if there are 4000 psa 10 Haaland available at $25. And if there’s profit to be made, eventually there will be that many easily with 500k+base haalands to go around.

The play is to beat the market. Be the first. Be the person on that next guy (a gamble). That’s it for base. Grading is a commodity. Just a slow to react one.

[QUOTE=k13;18414769]I don't even want to grade stars/legends numbered cards from 2014 prizm at $22 let alone some junk base from new sets of mbappe/messi/whoever.

2016 Euro Silvers populations of top players are non-existent and still barely worth grading.

There's not even 50 people in the whole world who want a Harry Kane first silver Euro prizm. Really amazing.

99.9% of cards should not be graded anyway. Grading is actually what ruined the "hobby". No one was grading soccer before and cards were selling no problem.[/QUOTE]

I want one. And a CR7 one. And way more.

I keep seeing prices falling on those so I'm waiting. Which is another problem since I'm in no rush - buyers are being patient, expecting a decrease in prices so cards don't move at current prices.

2014-2016 boom
2017-2019 bust
2020-2021 boom
2022- busting
202?- boom

[QUOTE=yiguiri2002;18414782]Read dragon's and (gulp) 13's response below yours. That's why.

I'm fine with someone risking it to go for a PSA 10. But if a PSA 9 becomes profitable again, forget about it. Junk slabs all around - again. Messi is huge but can he stand having 10k PSA 9s at 30 bucks?

Like I said, most of the people grading and flipping won't put it back into the hobby. There's only a few of us who flip to get more wax/cards.[/QUOTE]

I did read it and I understand the point. Don't tell me to read something as if I don't understand, I just don't agree with you.

I never said PSA 9s should be profitable, I said I am fine as long as I get my grading costs back and if I get a 10 I am doing a lot better then if the card is sitting in a box somewhere. At $10-12 that is fairly easy to get my costs back. At $22 it is not.

You guys keep doing what you are doing, it's great for me. My way has worked out quite well for me the past few years and if PSA lowers their grading fees at some point I think it will continue to work out well. If they never do I'll just keep buying singles.

I just had a 273 card order pop from PSA for the July Special. Lots of 2020 and 2021 F1 Sapphire and Chrome of Lewis Hamilton, Max Verstappen and other stars of F1.

I sent 21 2021 (second chrome) of Lewis Hamilton #1 Portraits @ $18 a pop and got 15 out of 21 PSA 10s.

I can sell the 15 10s for around $100-120 and the PSA 9s for around $15 so around $1600 in sales. $378 is my grading costs and Ebay will take their 13% or whatever so I'm probably going to clear about $1000 on 21 base cards of a second year chrome of Lewis Hamilton.

Now, certainly if more people grade that card it will drive the price down. I'm not arguing that but as it stand right now I will make $1000 most likely on 21 cards instead of letting them sit in a box somewhere. If I was to sell those cards raw I might get $10 a card so maybe $210.

I don't know about you guys, but that sounds like a much better option to me because $1000 I know is better than $210 and definitely better than $0.

If grading costs were $12 a card like they used to be that would be an extra $125 in my pocket and not PSAs as well.

[QUOTE=Ianhatcher;18414871]I did read it and I understand the point. Don't tell me to read something as if I don't understand, I just don't agree with you.

I never said PSA 9s should be profitable, I said I am fine as long as I get my grading costs back and if I get a 10 I am doing a lot better then if the card is sitting in a box somewhere. At $10-12 that is fairly easy to get my costs back. At $22 it is not.

You guys keep doing what you are doing, it's great for me. My way has worked out quite well for me the past few years and if PSA lowers their grading fees at some point I think it will continue to work out well. If they never do I'll just keep buying singles.

I just had a 273 card order pop from PSA for the July Special. Lots of 2020 and 2021 F1 Sapphire and Chrome of Lewis Hamilton, Max Verstappen and other stars of F1.

I sent 21 2021 (second chrome) of Lewis Hamilton #1 Portraits @ $18 a pop and got 15 out of 21 PSA 10s.

I can sell the 15 10s for around $100-120 and the PSA 9s for around $15 so around $1600 in sales. $378 is my grading costs and Ebay will take their 13% or whatever so I'm probably going to clear about $1000 on 21 base cards of a second year chrome of Lewis Hamilton.

Now, certainly if more people grade that card it will drive the price down. I'm not arguing that but as it stand right now I will make $1000 most likely on 21 cards instead of letting them sit in a box somewhere. If I was to sell those cards raw I might get $10 a card so maybe $210.

I don't know about you guys, but that sounds like a much better option to me because $1000 I know is better than $210 and definitely better than $0.

If grading costs were $12 a card like they used to be that would be an extra $125 in my pocket and not PSAs as well.[/QUOTE]

I know you don't agree, that's why I'm further explaining my point.

And I don't think anyone is arguing whether what you are doing is profitable or not. It looks like it is. We are arguing against the claim that it's holding the market down. The growth would be artificial and unsustainable if we start seeing tens of thousands of graded base cards whether it's Messi, CR7, Haaland or anyone else.

Also, you can't compare F1 to Soccer. Don't know much about F1 but I'm willing to bet that the amount of Ronaldo base Chrome for last season is close to the total of base cards Lewis Hamilton has.

[QUOTE=yiguiri2002;18415155]I know you don't agree, that's why I'm further explaining my point.

And I don't think anyone is arguing whether what you are doing is profitable or not. It looks like it is. We are arguing against the claim that it's holding the market down. The growth would be artificial and unsustainable if we start seeing tens of thousands of graded base cards whether it's Messi, CR7, Haaland or anyone else.

Also, you can't compare F1 to Soccer. Don't know much about F1 but I'm willing to bet that the amount of Ronaldo base Chrome for last season is close to the total of base cards Lewis Hamilton has.[/QUOTE]

Of course not being able to recoup money spent is going to hold the market down. That's less money floating around as once it's spent on Topps or Panini products and the card is sitting in a box somewhere it's dead money. It's not going back into the sports card market.

I'll put it this way and I am not trying to brag here but with my salary I can spend comfortably $6-7k a month on cards. During 2020 and 2021 when I was grading mostly base cards to sell and parallels for me to keep in my PC I was spending $10-12k a month on product, singles, whatever. That ended when PSA upped their grading fees and now I pretty much buy singles and wait for grading deals like the July Special. That's easily $5k a month that is not going out into the market just from me.

I never claimed you should grade every base card of Messi, Ronaldo, Mbappe and Haaland but certain releases will have good value for their base cards is my point, Sapphire being one of them and identifying good base cards to grade and sell is key.

An example. Grading Messi and Ronaldo Sapphire base cards from this year would be a good idea. People will want a Sapphire base card PSA 10 of Ronaldo in a Manchester United uni and there are people that will want a Sapphire base card PSA 10 of Messi in a PSG uni. At $10-12 grading fee I would send a 100 of those in. At $22, that's a little more risky.

I have no skin in what you do, it actually is better for me if people don't do what I'm doing but that's no fun to not share so other people can profit. But by all means, keep them all in your boxes. I don't really care either way but you are misrepresenting what I am saying, that is for sure as I am not telling people to grade all base cards.

All of these comments are incredibly, incredibly, incredibly US centric. The hobby is way past that now, and likely won't be going back there.

Talk of $15 bucks grading and selling for $30 means nothing to anyone outside of the US when you factor in postage, taxes and fees.

Useless - especially in Soccer where a good percentage of the collectors are outside of the US.

'There are 3 ways you can make money in this business:
Be smarter,
Be faster,
or cheat.'
~Margin Call

Oversupply and so *obviously* artificially high wax prices are the problem. I mean it's not even worth discussing 2nd order effects like grading.

[Glad you profit at it and I do 100% believe you do so.]

I would bust every soccer release this year at 2019 prices, although they should be cheaper than that given the vast increase in production.

[QUOTE=YayNJ;18415269]All of these comments are incredibly, incredibly, incredibly US centric.[/QUOTE]

And most of your comments are incredibly, incredibly, incredibly anti-U.S.

I can't imagine what must have happened in your past that damaged and scarred you to the point that you feel compelled to lash out at one specific country in the same tiresome manner over and over and over again. Such hatred, bitterness and bile must be tough to live with. That, combined with an ego-driven, smug, know-it-all tone to your posts make for quite the winning combo. Why don't you spend more time trying to help others using your supposed vast knowledge, rather than pooh-poohing almost every product, and a certain country? Do you come here just to complain, and reassure yourself that you're smarter than the rest of us? Show us on the doll where the big, bad U.S. hurt you.

See how long you can go without bashing the U.S. - I say you can't make it a week . . . probably not even a day.

[QUOTE=badkarma318;18415392]And most of your comments are incredibly, incredibly, incredibly anti-U.S.

I can't imagine what must have happened in your past that damaged and scarred you to the point that you feel compelled to lash out at one specific country in the same tiresome manner over and over and over again. Such hatred, bitterness and bile must be tough to live with. That, combined with an ego-driven, smug, know-it-all tone to your posts make for quite the winning combo. Why don't you spend more time trying to help others using your supposed vast knowledge, rather than pooh-poohing almost every product, and a certain country? Do you come here just to complain, and reassure yourself that you're smarter than the rest of us? Show us on the doll where the big, bad U.S. hurt you.

See how long you can go without bashing the U.S. - I say you can't make it a week . . . probably not even a day.[/QUOTE]

Nice rant, fella.

Now, when you have finished picking up your pearls can you show me what part of my post was incorrect?